Series Talk: Around the NHL: Tampa Bay Finally Lost

[eXile3]

The goaltenders in the final four outside of Oettinger potentially all sucked ass this season lol

Bobrovsky played well but I get your point.

 

[AlphaMikeFoxtrots]

Yeah I have zero issues with how the ex Pens have played. But I find it comical reading about how the pens needed to keep so and so and yet the coach used them like shit and if they were kept it'd be a complaint too.

Tanev one is the funniest f***ing thing to me - I loved the bloke before and after the Pens as a player he's great. But the narrative was the term was dumb and the team needed to get rid of him as his production wasn't enough etc.

Then Blob and Yohodipshit are all about how badly we needed him when they like many here, bitched about the term of his deal and etc etc. Essentially the usage was the issue not the player and so they focused on the contract because God forbid the wankers admit Sully is the issue.

Here a lot complained about Tanev with his term and production and he's been doing the same his entire career and is great. I hope Seattle wins that series just to see our idiot media blame Hextall more when it's always been Sully as the biggest issue regardless of how out of touch JR and Hex are with fixing Sully.

When I read [paraphrasing] "McCann is made for playing Sullivan's system," my eyes rolled back so hard I'm still looking at the screen from the backs of them.

 

[AlphaMikeFoxtrots]

Oilers and Leafs should trade one of their stars to us and take back Rust and Guentzel. They could use players with the 'winners' mentality

One for one, salary retained, no other sweeteners. Them ~winning intangibles~ are enough to get it done, imo.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

One for one, salary retained, no other sweeteners. Them ~winning intangibles~ are enough to get it done, imo.

Guentzel for Nylander. Leafs retain $$962,366 as Guentzel is a winner.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

View attachment 708737

And yeah, Tampa's blue line sucked this playoffs. Sergachev, Raddysh, Cole all awful.
McAvoy, Clifton, Orlov bad defensively for Boston vs Florida. Lindholm fell off the map. Ask Bruins fans about this.
Marchand and Bergeron both -6 that series. They're the Forwards they're supposed to be able to rely on the most defensively.
Ullmark played hurt and struggled as a result.
You fall hookline and sinker for names and prestige, without actually analyzing what transpired.

The Pens had the 2nd best defense of anyone that played more than 13 games in 2009. 5th best total. Some teams with small sample sizes ahead of them.
Whereas in this playoffs the Oilers were 12th defensively.


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There. I accounted for annual scoring rate changes.
People going on and on about a 8.49% scoring boost on this board like it's 25% or something. So out of touch lol.

You ignored pretty much everything I said about the effect a goalie's performance will have on a team's GAA, ignored everything I said about xGA and where each team ranked versus the field during their respective playoff seasons, and ignored everything I pointed out about Edmonton's supposed poor depth producing similar to what the Pens' supposed strong depth produced. Instead, you just repeated your argument about where the Oilers' GAA ranked and "lol'd" at the notion that league wide scoring would have an effect on a team's GAA.

Unless you decide you want to address all the other stuff I wrote in my response, I think we're done here.

 

[Captain Hook]

Guentzel for Nylander. Leafs retain $$962,366 as Guentzel is a winner.

I've thought about that deal as well. Both players contracts expire after next season. Pens get a couple years younger and Toronto gets a guy in Guentzel that's peak playoff performances have been better than Nylander. I doubt it happens and I'm not saying I want it to. I think a potential Toronto/Pittsburgh shakeup trade becomes more of a possibility if Dubas gets our GM job.

 

[Turin]

Guentzel > Nylander

 

[vodeni]

Guentzel > Nylander

which one?

 

[BusinessGoose]

I'm not a huge Vegas fan but making the WCF 4 times in the first 6 years of your franchise is like...astonishing

Blues similar
1967 expansion with waaay less talent
67 Stanley Cup loss
68 Stanley Cup loss
69 Stanley Cup loss
70 quarter loss
71 semi loss
72 quarter loss

 

[AuroraBorealis]

You ignored pretty much everything I said about the effect a goalie's performance will have on a team's GAA, ignored everything I said about xGA and where each team ranked versus the field during their respective playoff seasons, and ignored everything I pointed out about Edmonton's supposed poor depth producing similar to what the Pens' supposed strong depth produced. Instead, you just repeated your argument about where the Oilers' GAA ranked and "lol'd" at the notion that league wide scoring would have an effect on a team's GAA.

Unless you decide you want to address all the other stuff I wrote in my response, I think we're done here.

I already addressed the goaltending and it's effect. Skinner was the 3rd worst goalie in this playoffs. Another reason why there's too much focus on the wrong players here.
Factor in the league wide scoring rate differential to past or current stats. I gave you the numbers. 8.5%. That way it's fair for you and we don't have to talk about rates anymore.

What's wrong with rankings during a particular year? That's somehow irrelevant, against your competitors in a given playoff year?

I'm not really big on xGA/xGF anymore. It means nothing if you don't execute on what you create or don't get punished/rewarded for what you allow.
Much like the Pens and their 31st ranked finishing, despite being #2 in high danger shots this season. Who cares? They can't and don't put it into the net. Bottom line.
What's the point in following a trend, expecting inevitable course correction, when the change never occurs?
The 2009 team defending is the same. They found a way, clearly, with a Flower that was average.

Nah, no more xGA/xGF for me. Just actual results. Goal creation and goal prevention. Hardline stats.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Hey, did that German guy break the goals record? Haven’t been able to find out online. Asking for a friend.

 

[Gurglesons]

Blues similar
1967 expansion with waaay less talent
67 Stanley Cup loss
68 Stanley Cup loss
69 Stanley Cup loss
70 quarter loss
71 semi loss
72 quarter loss

Much different circumstances.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

McDrai are figuring out the hard way what the pitfalls are when it comes to line stacking and relying on your powerplay for like ~50% of your total offensive output every year. When the playoffs roll around and you have a bad period or three of the refs deciding they see nothing... suddenly you're in big trouble.

Also Sid/Geno were like the vast majority of the reason for that 09 Cup. Malkin carried a couple of guys on his wings that would barely stick in the league the next few seasons FFS. Crosby was playing with the one good wing they had and the hoary old last gasp of Bill Guerin. It isn't taking anything away from precious Connor and his sidekicks by pointing this out.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Guentzel for Nylander. Leafs retain $$962,366 as Guentzel is a winner.

I'd totally do that

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I already addressed the goaltending and it's effect. Skinner was the 3rd worst goalie in this playoffs. Another reason why there's too much focus on the wrong players here.
Factor in the league wide scoring rate differential to past or current stats. I gave you the numbers. 8.5%. That way it's fair for you and we don't have to talk about rates anymore.

If your entire argument is Edmonton's goaltending was worse than Pittsburgh's, then say that and only that. My issue is you keep harping on about the defense corps, the defensive help, and the supporting cast.

There is nothing that indicates those things are worse for the Oilers than what Sid/Geno got in 2009.

What's wrong with rankings during a particular year? That's somehow irrelevant, against your competitors in a given playoff year?

Who said something is wrong with it? I literally argued that how a team ranks in a given year is a good indication of how it performed, given it's competition, and both the 2023 Oilers and the 2009 Pens ranked around 6th in pretty much every "defensive" category. That's the point. The Pens were no better defensively - relative to their peers - than the Oilers were this year, despite the fact you keep claiming they were.

I'm not really big on xGA/xGF anymore. It means nothing if you don't execute on what you create or don't get punished/rewarded for what you allow.
Much like the Pens and their 31st ranked finishing, despite being #2 in high danger shots this season. Who cares? They can't and don't put it into the net. Bottom line.
What's the point in following a trend, expecting inevitable course correction, when the change never occurs?
The 2009 team defending is the same. They found a way, clearly, with a Flower that was average.

Nah, no more xGA/xGF for me. Just actual results. Goal creation and goal prevention. Hardline stats.

So you prefer the stats that don't account for things like goaltending and don't prefer the stats that do, in order to determine defensive performance. Gotcha.

That's the problem with saying you're being objective but then insisting on only YOUR stat of choice being the correct one. You're not being objective if you don't take into account EVERYTHING to draw a conclusion.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

lol the 09 defensive corps was kind of a cluster... come on.

You had a young Letang still getting his feet wet, Gonchar who was legit terrific and then a bunch of... stuff. It's cool it came together just right but you can't really PLAN something like Scuderi/Gill working... it just clicked for that window of time. Similar to like HBK or whatever playoff flash in the pan you want to reference that seems to happen every year.

 

[bathroomSTAAL]

I want Seattle to win tonight but won't be too upset if Dallas advances.

Same. Dallas has a nice mix of likable vets and exciting young guys

Blues similar
1967 expansion with waaay less talent
67 Stanley Cup loss
68 Stanley Cup loss
69 Stanley Cup loss
70 quarter loss
71 semi loss
72 quarter loss

That's not really comparable in terms of achievement though. They were in a division with 5 other expansion teams, 1 of whom had to make the final.

Vegas has been doing it in a conference with 14 other established teams.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

There is nothing that indicates those things are worse for the Oilers than what Sid/Geno got in 2009.

Ridiculous. They allowed a goal fewer against per game. Even factoring in that rate differential I mentioned, that's huge over the long haul. That's a team-wide effort.
While Fleury was better than Skinner in 2009, he was average at best.
Draisaitl was on pace to crush Gretzky's goal record and it wasn't enough. McDavid was on pace for like 40 playoff points, the most in history. It wasn't enough.
These things suggest there isn't enough help being generated from the rest of the team.

Who said something is wrong with it? I literally argued that how a team ranks in a given year is a good indication of how it performed, given it's competition, and both the 2023 Oilers and the 2009 Pens ranked around 6th in pretty much every "defensive" category. That's the point. The Pens were no better defensively - relative to their peers - than the Oilers were this year, despite the fact you keep claiming they were.

Great. Well I gave you what they actually did as a team, not what model makers suggested they should have. That seems a lot more valuable to me.

So you prefer the stats that don't account for things like goaltending and prefer the stats that do, in order to determine defensive performance. Gotcha.

That's the problem with saying you're being objective but then insisting on only YOUR stat of choice being the correct one. You're not being objective if you don't take into account EVERYTHING to draw a conclusion.

I used xGA/xGF for years. The expected trends didn't follow through on what they promised far too frequently to be worth my time.
I'll use "expected ____" when there's no good alternatives, like with finishing. Goaltending expected numbers actually correlate to eye test and are supported by the rest of their stats, so I use that too.
But that's as far as I wanna go with that these days.
That's part of being objective. I don't base my opinions on stats that fail this often.

 

[Icarium]

The success of VGK, DAL and FLA with their new coaches make our GMs and owners unconditional love for Mikey Sullisma even more annoying. Maybe the new GM will finally get the hint.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

lol the 09 defensive corps was kind of a cluster... come on.

You had a young Letang still getting his feet wet, Gonchar who was legit terrific and then a bunch of... stuff. It's cool it came together just right but you can't really PLAN something like Scuderi/Gill working... it just clicked for that window of time. Similar to like HBK or whatever playoff flash in the pan you want to reference that seems to happen every year.

Precisely, it clicked during that period. That's all I claimed. I'm being told it didn't though, and we won despite that, which is dumb.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Precisely, it clicked during that period. That's all I claimed. I'm being told it didn't though, and we won despite that, which is dumb.

I mean... it was good enough. And it sorta just fell into place that way. Nobody was looking at Pittsburgh's blueline with envy going into that post season.

I think it's fine to say that Sid/Malkin simply have navigated the playoffs much better than Wonder Boy so far. And I don't see this massive gap in team quality between some of these Pittsburgh teams and what the Oil are fielding, now. You can't really BLAME McDrai... obviously as far as numbers go they are holding up their end. But it's also possible that we are spoiled and keep forgetting what kind of extra level Sid/Geno would bring to the playoffs consistently especially in their prime.

You yourself are fond of saying that it's not always just about scoring. Same applies here... McDrai's numbers are shiny. Maybe the rest of their playoff effort ain't.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I mean... it was good enough. And it sorta just fell into place that way. Nobody was looking at Pittsburgh's blueline with envy going into that post season.

I think it's fine to say that Sid/Malkin simply have navigated the playoffs much better than Wonder Boy so far. And I don't see this massive gap in team quality between some of these Pittsburgh teams and what the Oil are fielding, now. You can't really BLAME McDrai... obviously as far as numbers go they are holding up their end. But it's also possible that we are spoiled and keep forgetting what kind of extra level Sid/Geno would bring to the playoffs consistently especially in their prime.

You yourself are fond of saying that it's not always just about scoring. Same applies here... McDrai's numbers are shiny. Maybe the rest of their playoff effort ain't.

Right, team defense has been my primary focus in this discussion, because that's what made them lose. The Oilers had the 2nd best offense this playoffs. That's not the core problem. That's not what we should be talking about. Their team did the job offensively. How they did it is irrelevant.

Their duo certainly never got the goaltending that we did in 2008, 2013 (Vokoun onward), 2016 and 2017. Not even close. Look at Mike Smith's performance vs Colorado for example, when they were finally going deep.
Also, their bottom 6's were less responsible than ours defensively during our runs.
Nurse was no Hedman away from the O-zone. Bouchard put up a lot of points by virtue of the PP, but he was putrid defensively. So were Ceci and Desharnais.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

There are a variety of factors as with everything. It's tough to nail down what is gonna work and when in the NHL -- doubly so for the playoffs. I'm not saying the Oilers have done a terrific job building that team... they haven't. But I'm also not really seeing this major disadvantage they are at roster-wise compared to some of the Penguins deep run teams. Goaltending is a HUGE factor sure... but like... we see how hard it is to rely on ANY goaltender, right? Murray gave this team astounding goaltending. Until he didn't. It's tough for me to hang the Oilers by the goaltender rope... because goaltenders are flakes. Go buy an expensive "name" one, sure... whoever the big hot shit is on the market that year. Then watch him implode all season long for your troubles. That's what they do.

To me I think the main thrust is that the Oilers have built a team to cater to McDavid and Drai putting up monster numbers. Cool. That's a choice. But don't expect it to always pay championship dividends. Sid and Malkin always willingly took a backseat to overall team success even if they definitely brought the numbers, too (somehow). Now I can't say if that's something McDrai refuses to do but it seems to be a choice the team has made one way or the other.

 

[Gurglesons]

There are a variety of factors as with everything. It's tough to nail down what is gonna work and when in the NHL -- doubly so for the playoffs. I'm not saying the Oilers have done a terrific job building that team... they haven't. But I'm also not really seeing this major disadvantage they are at roster-wise compared to some of the Penguins deep run teams. Goaltending is a HUGE factor sure... but like... we see how hard it is to rely on ANY goaltender, right? Murray gave this team astounding goaltending. Until he didn't. It's tough for me to hang the Oilers by the goaltender rope... because goaltenders are flakes. Go buy an expensive "name" one, sure... whoever the big hot shit is on that market that year. Then watch him implode all season long for your troubles. That's what they do.

To me I think the main thrust is that the Oilers have built a team to cater to McDavid and Drai putting up monster numbers. Cool. That's a choice. But don't expect it to always pay championship dividends. Sid and Malkin always willingly took a backseat to overall team success even if they definitely brought the numbers, too (somehow). Now I can't say if that's something McDrai refuses to do but it seems to be a choice the team has made one way or the other.

Exactly. Ovi syndrome. People ignore it because they put up amazing numbers. People forget Ovi put up better numbers in 08 and 09 then Sid and Malkin in the playoffs too.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Exactly. Ovi syndrome. People ignore it because they put up amazing numbers. People forget Ovi put up better numbers in 08 and 09 then Sid and Malkin in the playoffs too.

I guess to me it's like... just watch how Sid and Malkin handled themselves every single playoffs with little to no exceptions. Dialed in... involved in EVERY facet of the game... doing whatever it takes every shift to get the job done even if means they might not be the guy that actually scores the deciding goal.

I don't think McDavid and Drai are a couple of worthless layabouts or anything. I just never have seen that same shift-in shift-out intensity from them.