Speculation: Armchair GM Thread: Jagrbombs all around

[OvermanKingGainer]

So, assuming we don't lose Fox, losing Andersson wouldn't be as big of a hit? (Though obviously keeping both would be better)

Losing either will be a big hit. In 2020 with Hamonic and Stone gone, our top 6 should be looking something like

Brodie-Fox
Kylington-Hamilton
Giordano-Andersson

So these six guys above can't be offered up in trade. Also can't forget that 2020 will be two years removed from the end of Giordano's contract, so I also wouldn't offer Kulak or Valimaki at this point. Basically these eight defensemen are going to be part of a gradual transition as Giordano ages. They're not "untouchable" but you have to be getting a significant long term piece in return. So for example I would offer Kylington/Valimaki for a guy like Sam Reinhart or Alex Nylander - young, similarly aged players with similar upside who might fill a need better.

For an expendable piece like Evander Kane, you offer an expendable piece like Mike Stone or Michael Frolik. You don't offer a long term piece. Looking at our current top 9+Hathaway, you could legitimatley end up in a scenario where Kane finds chemistry with none of our top player pairs (Bennett/Jankowski / Gaudreau/Monahan / Tkachuk/Backlund). Then you end up with Kane-Stajan-Brouwer as your fourth line. WHich isn't the end of the world, Kane's a good piece and if he's on your fourth line you're a good team. But what are you willing to pay for that? I wouldn't be paying anything I want on the NHL Flames in 2020.

Kane may be a goal scorer but that doesn't mean he for-sure upgrades any of our three scoring lines. He doesn't have the same hockey sense as Ferland. He doesn't have the same insta-chemistry ability Frolik has. He doesn't have Jagr's elite top-end skill. So you have to be very measured in what you give up for him - he's a big name but not a big talent.

 

[Flameshomer]

Some of you live in an alternate reality, I swear to christ.

 

[Flameshomer]

In the last calendar year kane was almost a ppg player, hasn't had any 'bad character' stories (had a good one in fact), and has scored goals at the second highest rate 5 v 5. Outside of Kane, it looks like the league will be significantly increasing the cap for next season.

According to our boards he won't increase our scoring, he'll bring poor attitude to our team/city, and will put us in cap hell.
Not only this, but we're worried what our blueline will look like in three seasons. Three seasons.

Does anyone really think our roster will really be the same in three seasons? How long have you been following this league? This is lunacy.

 

[Flameshomer]

We have these assets on D under the age of 27:

Brodie
Hamonic
Hamilton
Stone
Kulak

Kylington
Valimaki
Fox
Andersson
Healy
AOM

etc.

We can afford to lose a defenseman, I would argue any of the defenseman, in the second tier I mentioned.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Losing either will be a big hit. In 2020 with Hamonic and Stone gone, our top 6 should be looking something like

Brodie-Fox
Kylington-Hamilton
Giordano-Andersson

So these six guys above can't be offered up in trade. Also can't forget that 2020 will be two years removed from the end of Giordano's contract, so I also wouldn't offer Kulak or Valimaki at this point. Basically these eight defensemen are going to be part of a gradual transition as Giordano ages. They're not "untouchable" but you have to be getting a significant long term piece in return. So for example I would offer Kylington/Valimaki for a guy like Sam Reinhart or Alex Nylander - young, similarly aged players with similar upside who might fill a need better.

For an expendable piece like Evander Kane, you offer an expendable piece like Mike Stone or Michael Frolik. You don't offer a long term piece. Looking at our current top 9+Hathaway, you could legitimatley end up in a scenario where Kane finds chemistry with none of our top player pairs (Bennett/Jankowski / Gaudreau/Monahan / Tkachuk/Backlund). Then you end up with Kane-Stajan-Brouwer as your fourth line. WHich isn't the end of the world, Kane's a good piece and if he's on your fourth line you're a good team. But what are you willing to pay for that? I wouldn't be paying anything I want on the NHL Flames in 2020.

Kane may be a goal scorer but that doesn't mean he for-sure upgrades any of our three scoring lines. He doesn't have the same hockey sense as Ferland. He doesn't have the same insta-chemistry ability Frolik has. He doesn't have Jagr's elite top-end skill. So you have to be very measured in what you give up for him - he's a big name but not a big talent.

Where is mah boi Valimaki on there?

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

We have these assets on D under the age of 27:

Brodie
Hamonic
Hamilton
Stone
Kulak

Kylington
Valimaki
Fox
Andersson
Healy
AOM

etc.

We can afford to lose a defenseman, I would argue any of the defenseman, in the second tier I mentioned.

I hope we keep AOM for personal reasons. Valimaki is our safest high upside D as well, so keep him please. Otherwise you get to get traded and you get to get traded everyone gets to get traded!

 

[Calculon]

Eh, in this reality, Kane has all of two more goals than Ferland, despite playing with Eichel, despite getting premium powerplay time, despite averaging about a minute more than he'd get under Glen-Roll-the-Lines-Gulutzan (Kane's at 20; Gaudreau's at 19).

I know there's always this perception of the grass being greener on the other side when it comes to non-lottery drafted Flames players (I mean, his stellar even strength sure helped the Sabres take the next step..oh wait) but the difference between Kane and Ferland this season is no where near worth giving up a quality prospect like Andersson, Fox, Kylington, Valimaki let alone the more delusional proposals thrown out there.

Alternatively, leave Ferland alone and bring Kane in for the third line. Okay, now he's down to 15 minutes a night. Does anyone seriously think he'd score at the same rate then?

Asset management always matters. Emptying the cupboards for a rental is a dumb idea plain and simple when the team's no better than a fringe playoff squad. Now, if the Flames were going to overpay for something that actually addresses needs like Pastrnk, Bjorkstrand, E.Lindholm or even Simmonds, at least that could be justified. A move like that is worth giving up premium assets because it solves a longterm need.

But Kane? A left shot, left winger for an already crowed left side? What if Kane can't play the right side? What if Tkachuk or Gaudreau can't make the switch either? None of them have played there at the NHL level; it's just a silly gambit to take at this point.

Personally, I'd let the season play out and look at bringing in a scorer in the off season. Like Marchessault in free agency. Or try moving Andersson or something for Bjorkstrand. Or find a way to get Kessel here. I know it's boring but it's a lot better than making a bad move for the sake of making a move.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

In the last calendar year kane was almost a ppg player, hasn't had any 'bad character' stories (had a good one in fact), and has scored goals at the second highest rate 5 v 5. Outside of Kane, it looks like the league will be significantly increasing the cap for next season.

According to our boards he won't increase our scoring, he'll bring poor attitude to our team/city, and will put us in cap hell.
Not only this, but we're worried what our blueline will look like in three seasons. Three seasons.

You're not great at evaluating the context. Here are the facts about Evander Kane

- Plays with Jack Eichel, who is better than anyone on the Flames (Eichel has a point on 17 of Kane's 28 points, and ROR has a point on another 5 exclusive of those)
- Drags down Jack Eichel because he is a shoot-first player, when offensive players want to play with guys who can read the play.
- Is third amongst forwards on his team in TOI, yet plays more minutes than any forward on the Flames including Gaudreau
- is a left-handed shot on a team that only one other LHS on its top 6 (ROR) to go with a whole bunch of RHS F (Eichel, Reinhart, Okposo, Pominville). He'd be far more redundant on a team brimming with LHSs like Gaudreau, Bennett, Jankowski, Monahan, Tkachuk, Backlund, and Ferland (and Jagr/Frolik).
- has yucky penalty differentials. (-24 since Oct 2015, people complain bout Sam Bennett yet over that same span he's got an even penalty differential and he was U21 for most of it)
-hasn't historically driven positive goal differentials (not that +/- means a whole lot, but career minus 47 despite playing with centres like Scheifele and Eichel has to be a red flag, those aren't exactly chumps). The Jets also played better after trading him a few years back.

Let's face it. What is Evander Kane?

A well-off man's Frolik (more Tuscany than Springbank) putting up big numbers on a bad team. Frolik did too to a lesser extent, but when he went to a contender his numbers plummetted.

Is that a bad thing? No. But no he is not an instant upgrade on Gaudreau or Tkachuk or Bennett or Ferland, and points don't tell enough of the story to know if he's an upgrade on Jagr or Frolik. And the way Hathaway draws penalties, there's another place you'd be taking away from.

I would trade Frolik+small add like Ruzicka for Evander Kane. And if Buffalo declines, c'est la vie. I'm not losing sleep over it.

Does anyone really think our roster will really be the same in three seasons? How long have you been following this league? This is lunacy.

No one thinks our roster will be the same in three seasons. That's the point. Vets like Brouwer, Hamonic, Frolik, Stone, Stajan, will need to move on, and Giordano's role had better be reduced at age 37 or whatever he'll be. You don't trade futures for rentals unless those rentals put you over the edge. What costly rentals in the last decade have put a team over the edge? Marian Gaborik, and...? And I sure as hell would not think to put Evander Kane in the same category as Gaborik.

On the flip side which former prospects over the last decade are now contributing Flames? Giordano, Backlund, Brodie, Ferland, Gaudreau, Jankowski, Kulak, Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk, Hathaway, Rittich. Prospects are not just worthless mystery boxes.

 

[DFF]

Losing either will be a big hit. In 2020 with Hamonic and Stone gone, our top 6 should be looking something like

Brodie-Fox
.

Unless Fox magically became Scott Stevens in the last year, that pairing would be comically bad defensively.....

Last I watched during last year junior, Fox couldnt play defense to save his life.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Unless Fox magically became Scott Stevens in the last year, that pairing would be comically bad defensively.....

Last I watched during last year junior, Fox couldnt play defense to save his life.

An underdeveloped 18 year old defenseman struggled defensivly at WJC(while dominating overall)?

Seriously. Most defensemen(/players) at WJC are 19YOs. Some even turn 20 during the tourney. Fox not only looks better now, but is still WJC eligible.

And Brodie continues to be undersold defensively by CFHF. He is one of the best defensive players in the NHL.

 

[DFF]

And Brodie continues to be undersold defensively by CFHF. He is one of the best defensive players in the NHL.

I'll file this away along with Bennett as the future perennial Hart contender

It's a good laugh when I need it...thanks OKG!!!

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I just value Kane more than others I guess, honestly I’d rather have him over Simmonds and he would cost a lot less.

@Calculon , the Jokinen comparison to Kane may not be awful, but we have far better depth now and the right guys that Kane can thrive with. I disagree, I think we are a Kane away from a Cup. Make it happen Tre!

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I'll file this away along with Bennett as the future perennial Hart contender

It's a good laugh when I need it...thanks OKG!!!

WOWY actually says Brodie carried Giordano if one of them carried the other from 2013-2014 to 2015-2016.

 

[Mobiandi]

Simmonds would fit this team perfectly. He'd be a fantastic add with another year on his contract anyway. Doubt Philly keeps him anyway. If Treliving really wants to go for it then I'd hope he tries to snag him at the deadline seeing as Philly's playoff chances are slimmer because of the losing streak

 

[djpatm]

lol at the person who said Eichel is better than Gaudreau.

Eichel is hot garbage for his hype level.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Simmonds would cost us Bennett+.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

WOWY actually says Brodie carried Giordano if one of them carried the other from 2013-2014 to 2015-2016.

WOWY is also an incredibly imperfect stat.

 

[Skobel24]

Just a thought, but if Kane/Simmonds are priced too high, what about Stempniak? He'd likely be much cheaper, and he'd fit on any line.

 

[Sparky93]

They’re both way too expensive and I never liked Stempniak. What’s the deal with Hudler? Is he eligible to play this year? I really wouldn’t mind seeing him alternating games with Jagr, keeping both of them fresh.

 

[crackdown44]

They’re both way too expensive and I never liked Stempniak. What’s the deal with Hudler? Is he eligible to play this year? I really wouldn’t mind seeing him alternating games with Jagr, keeping both of them fresh.

Bring him on just before the next away game in Vegas. Guaranteed team bonding experience

 

[Flameshomer]

lol stempy and hudler? really guys?! For the record, last we heard hudler was potentially visiting czech prison haha.

OKG I stopped reading when you said Eichel was better than johnny. Eichel's not even as good as Monahan at the moment, wouldn't surprise me if he never got there either. You're completely divorced from reality man.

Harvey and I are of like mind on this one- I believe Kane could push us over the top. Kanes goals are a result of kane. Ferland is a complimentary piece.

 

[Flameshomer]

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Kane-Jankowski-Bennett
Versteeg-Lazar-Jagr

That's what I would like a healthy flames squad to look like. Swap Jagr/Ferland depending on how they're preforming.

 

[Rangediddy]

They’re both way too expensive and I never liked Stempniak. What’s the deal with Hudler? Is he eligible to play this year? I really wouldn’t mind seeing him alternating games with Jagr, keeping both of them fresh.

Alternate with Jags only for the road games. Guy is the life of the party on the plane.

 

[Flameshomer]

Rumors today about Pittsburgh considering blowing it up. I would rather Phil Kessel than any of the names we were discussing. Do you think he could be had for a similar price?

 

[crackdown44]

Kessel has a lot more term and a cap hit of 6.8mil through 2022. He’s playing phenomenal hockey right now so the price would be way too steep for a player that we’d probably only get 2-3 good years out of.

Also I don’t think Pittsburgh is interested in trading him. They’re still in their window