Are the pens going to the playoffs?

[Shady Machine]

They are every year.

Same reason the Pens are every year...their stars.

Ovie, Backstrom, Kuz, Oshie, etc...

They scare me less this year, although maybe that's not a good thing.

 

[vodeni]

They scare me less this year, although maybe that's not a good thing.

that is definitively not a good thing

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Of their remaining ten games, SIX are part of a back to back, including one where Washington is the tail end of the back to back. And Washington actually has more than one day off before the matchup.



The NHL really did a number on the Pens with the schedule this year, those are three of nineteen back to backs this year.

 

[Turin]

They are every year.

Same reason the Pens are every year...their stars.

Ovie, Backstrom, Kuz, Oshie, etc...

Oshie is not a star. The rest are not on a Crosby/Malkin level. Since the graph was from Blake McCurdy I wanted to know how he was pining Washington as favourites when they’ve seriously regressed.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly, I don't care where the Penguins finish in the standings. I just don't want to play New Jersey in the 1st round, that's really all I care about. I'd feel confident going into a series against either Columbus or Philly (or even Florida, if that somehow happens), just keep the Devils away from the Penguins.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Honestly, I don't care where the Penguins finish in the standings. I just don't want to play New Jersey in the 1st round, that's really all I care about. I'd feel confident going into a series against either Columbus or Philly (or even Florida, if that somehow happens), just keep the Devils away from the Penguins.

If the Pens can't handle a team with above avg skill and speed like the Devils, they might as well forget trying to beat TB who is just as fast but has elite skill.

Outside of Hall, no one on NJ scares me. TB has a legit 4-5 guys that can fly and scare me.

 

[madinsomniac]

Of their remaining ten games, SIX are part of a back to back, including one where Washington is the tail end of the back to back. And Washington actually has more than one day off before the matchup.



The NHL really did a number on the Pens with the schedule this year, those are three of nineteen back to backs this year.

I am guessing that the NHL wants no part of a threepeat... especially if the winner is a super skilled fast team... I dont think the schedule ended up like that by accident, especially how many of the back to backs put us in unfavorable positions in both games earlier this season.

We will make the playoffs, and ultimately thats all that matters

 

[Shady Machine]

If the Pens can't handle a team with above avg skill and speed like the Devils, they might as well forget trying to beat TB who is just as fast but has elite skill.

Outside of Hall, no one on NJ scares me. TB has a legit 4-5 guys that can fly and scare me.

I don't know, NJ looked damn fast when we played them. Of course TB is better, but if I can avoid the Devils in the 1st round, that'd be preferred.

 

[RizzleMcRib]

I am guessing that the NHL wants no part of a threepeat... especially if the winner is a super skilled fast team... I dont think the schedule ended up like that by accident, especially how many of the back to backs put us in unfavorable positions in both games earlier this season.

We will make the playoffs, and ultimately thats all that matters

I don't think the NHL has it out for us. I think it's to make up for the fact we travel the least amount of miles this year. Look at a team like Chicago. They also have 17 back to backs and traveled the third most miles.

 

[ncm7772]

Fairly certain Pens will see CBJ in Round 1. Don't see NJD getting there, and Philly is downtrodden.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Oshie is not a star. The rest are not on a Crosby/Malkin level. Since the graph was from Blake McCurdy I wanted to know how he was pining Washington as favourites when they’ve seriously regressed.

I believe McCurdy to be among the best and his models have become better and better over the years.

He had the Pens as one of the favorites going into the playoffs and throughout last year despite most of us wondering what he was seeing that we did not. In fact the simpler analytics models such as CF% and FF% the Pens were nothing special. His models go a lot deeper. And more often than not have been right.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I don't know, NJ looked damn fast when we played them. Of course TB is better, but if I can avoid the Devils in the 1st round, that'd be preferred.

The Pens are one of the fastest teams in the league.

Can't be scared of teams trying to mimic the Pens because it will only get harder with really fast teams like TB, Tor, Bos and Nashville as they move along.

If they can't beat a team like NJ with so little playoff experience on their roster, they sure as hell cant beat those other teams.

 

[Turin]

If the Pens can't handle a team with above avg skill and speed like the Devils, they might as well forget trying to beat TB who is just as fast but has elite skill.

Outside of Hall, no one on NJ scares me. TB has a legit 4-5 guys that can fly and scare me.

Seriously. If New Jersey is scary how are they going to beat Tampa, Boston or Nashville? Hell, Las Vegas and Winnipeg would both likely beat New Jersey in the final. People look way too hard at regular season match ups to assess how teams actually match up. The Devils are fast, okay. Every contender is that, and more.

 

[Turin]

I believe McCurdy to be among the best and his models have become better and better over the years.

He had the Pens as one of the favorites going into the playoffs and throughout last year despite most of us wondering what he was seeing that we did not. In fact the simpler analytics models such as CF% and FF% the Pens were nothing special. His models go a lot deeper. And more often than not have been right.

Sure there are models that go deeper, I just want to know what they are. Also the Penguins last year were pretty high in FF, and had good special teams.

 

[vodeni]

Seriously. If New Jersey is scary how are they going to beat Tampa, Boston or Nashville? Hell, Las Vegas and Winnipeg would both likely beat New Jersey in the final. People look way too hard at regular season match ups to assess how teams actually match up. The Devils are fast, okay. Every contender is that, and more.

to second both of you...if we can't match up f..... devils than we won't be able to beat anyone, and its not like Pens tried their best and could not match them...

 

[DesertPenguin]

Fairly certain Pens will see CBJ in Round 1. Don't see NJD getting there, and Philly is downtrodden.

I check sportsclubstats.com fairly regularly, looking at our odds to wind up in a certain seed and who we might face. Here's how we are looking right now:
Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

They run millions of simulated seasons for each game left, taking into account relative strengths of each team, to determine probabilities for where teams will finish and who they will face.

Final Standing Probabilities in the Metro:
1st - 41%
2nd - 47%
3rd - 8%
4th - 3%

First Round Opponent Possibilities:
PHI - 27%
CBJ - 26%
NJD - 22%
FLA - 19%

Conclusions? We have a surprisingly close to even chance to win the division, given that WASH has two games in hand. That PIT-WASH game will factor huge here. Beyond that, it's a toss up who we could play. I'd rather not play NJD because we haven't fared well against them this season. I'm also concerned that CBJ and PHI will try to take a pound of flesh, and leave us limping for the 2nd round. Ideally, we get FLA.

 

[ColePens]

Florida has all these games to make up and they seem to never play

 

[Peat]

I don't think the NHL has it out for us. I think it's to make up for the fact we travel the least amount of miles this year. Look at a team like Chicago. They also have 17 back to backs and traveled the third most miles.

I almost think its an advantage once you're into the play-offs. They're going to be well used to playing fatigued and all those days off gives them time to get those little knocks right.

Only issue is no rhythm.

 

[Shady Machine]

Interesting stuff. No idea why you'd want Florida though. I never want to play the hottest team in the league first round.

My preference of those 4 is Philly, Columbus, NJ, Florida.

Other than Gudas, Philly doesn't have much on the physical/moron scale and their coach is more MJ than he is Lavy/Berube. Their D generally blows, their goaltending is suspect as usual, and their forward depth is worse than it used to be.

Columbus can't beat us until they prove they can and we've had Bobs number in playoffs.

NJ just scares me, likely for unfounded reasons and history. Florida if they get in won't be fun for anyone.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

My preference if pressed would be to play Buffalo, followed closely by Arizona.

Aside from that I do not have a preference.

Again assuming that the Pens even make the playoffs which still is not a guarantee at this point.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I don't think the NHL has it out for us. I think it's to make up for the fact we travel the least amount of miles this year. Look at a team like Chicago. They also have 17 back to backs and traveled the third most miles.

Also won 3 cups haha

 

[Allie Kitsune]

Honestly, I don't care where the Penguins finish in the standings. I just don't want to play New Jersey in the 1st round, that's really all I care about. I'd feel confident going into a series against either Columbus or Philly (or even Florida, if that somehow happens), just keep the Devils away from the Penguins.

I repeat.

If they can't beat the Devils, then they don't deserve the 3-peat.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Maybe I'm just a superstitious sort, but I hate coming up with preferences about who I'd rather the Pens play. I think all teams who are likely to be 1st round opponents have a chance of beating the Pens, so I feel like asking for one over the other is just asking for trouble.

Having said that, I believe the Pens have the roster to beat any of those teams -- as long as the Pens play to their potential. Also, as long as injuries don't hamper them (ie. Murray not being available, or Crosby/Geno/Kessel being banged up that allows them to only play at 70% of their ability).

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I check sportsclubstats.com fairly regularly, looking at our odds to wind up in a certain seed and who we might face. Here's how we are looking right now:
Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

They run millions of simulated seasons for each game left, taking into account relative strengths of each team, to determine probabilities for where teams will finish and who they will face.

Final Standing Probabilities in the Metro:
1st - 41%
2nd - 47%
3rd - 8%
4th - 3%

First Round Opponent Possibilities:
PHI - 27%
CBJ - 26%
NJD - 22%
FLA - 19%

Conclusions? We have a surprisingly close to even chance to win the division, given that WASH has two games in hand. That PIT-WASH game will factor huge here. Beyond that, it's a toss up who we could play. I'd rather not play NJD because we haven't fared well against them this season. I'm also concerned that CBJ and PHI will try to take a pound of flesh, and leave us limping for the 2nd round. Ideally, we get FLA.

Think the Jackets would be the toughest, and we would end up even more upset about trading Cole.

Philly would be the most exciting matchup, but if Murray is on his game..we get to their goaltending(no matter who is in there).

Devils are inexperienced, they might go into the playoffs treating it as theyre playing with house money and shock us, or we run over them. I dont put too much stock into regular season matchups. Taking our game to another level would be too much for them imo.

Id also like to see Crosby/Malkin take out another new team in the East. Jersey, Toronto, Buffalo, and florida being the only ones they havent played. Rather not Florida be that team in the first round this year, with the way they are playing. They have way more talent than the Devils. They had a helluva team two years ago(first place in their division right?) , that struggled last year with injuries. Theyre back now.

 

[ColePens]

Never have a preference. You could lose against anyone. You could beat anyone. Montreal 2010 is the exact example. Dodge a Washington team and lose to a much worse Habs team