Value of: Pierre Luc Dubois

[Double Dion]

We're stuck with Huberdeau either way. If we could get rid of him I'm all for it but that's not going to happen.

Dubois is 25, not at all the same situation.

So doubling the amount of unmovable bad contracts you have is a desirable situation? I understand we could use a C. We could use a D too. These should be short-term deals. Not max contracts for a guy who scored 16 goals, doesn't win faceoffs and is bad defensively. He's a worse player than Zary, Backlund and Kadri and then he makes 8.5M for 7 more years.

Look how much better Winnipeg was trading him for 2 average players.

 

[DJJones]

So doubling the amount of unmovable bad contracts you have is a desirable situation? I understand we could use a C. We could use a D too. These should be short-term deals. Not max contracts for a guy who scored 16 goals, doesn't win faceoffs and is bad defensively. He's a worse player than Zary, Backlund and Kadri and then he makes 8.5M for 7 more years.

Look how much better Winnipeg was trading him for 2 average players.

They'd laugh at us for a Huberdeau/Dubois swap. No one in the league would take Huberdeaus contract.

If they were giving away pld for future consideration I think a handful of teams would be right there. not even a year ago he was worth a shit ton.

 

[larmex99]

there is zero chance, the POS has quit on 3 teams. don't need that cancer on Montreal

Four teams. He quit on his junior team and was traded after a no-show on a road trip.

 

[Bond]

I don't think they have any intention of bottoming out.

Feel like they do without saying it outloud. If they trade Markstrom in the offseason as is currently speculated then they definitely are.
Outside of that, why would you want to fill long term cap space with Dbuois when they already have Kadri, PLD isn't a #1C.

 

[Hacketts]

ham sandwich, no cheese.

 

[DJJones]

Feel like they do without saying it outloud. If they trade Markstrom in the offseason as is currently speculated then they definitely are.
Outside of that, why would you want to fill long term cap space with Dbuois when they already have Kadri, PLD isn't a #1C.

They aren't going to go all in, and anyone on an expiring contract will be resigned or traded but they seemingly have no intention to compete with the teams that are actively trying to suck. Most likely we get 80 points next year and draft in a similar spot as this year. There's no savior coming there and they'll use the ton of cap space on something productive eventually.

We aren't getting a 1C any time soon and Backlund/Kadri are old. I don't foresee a scenario where we go damn, we have too many centers.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I meant Winnipeg play and today's cap situation

8.5 is second liner money now. There's going to be some nutty contracts in the next year

He's 44th in cap hit, 29th among forwards and 15th to 18th among centers (depending on who you consider a center). Its not second liner money, its still firmly 1st line money.

His career high is 63 points and both his counting stats and underlying numbers never screamed true first liner in Winnipeg.

He got paid what he did because:

-he has draft pedigree
-he has size
-he's skilled and his highs are pretty high
-he's young, so its more likely he will be physically able to play his best for the contract and may have room to grow

The only way Dubois' contract made sense was the idea/bet that he would grow into a successor for Kopitar down the line. Which wasn't an outrageous bet (and the kind of bet teams make all the time with their own young players) but the contract wasn't based on past performance and the rising cap.

 

[Double Dion]

They'd laugh at us for a Huberdeau/Dubois swap. No one in the league would take Huberdeaus contract.

If they were giving away pld for future consideration I think a handful of teams would be right there. not even a year ago he was worth a shit ton.

He scored 9 even strength goals last year. Those are replacement level numbers. He has worse ESG/60 than AJ Greer.

I get your intention here. You want to buy low. I'm saying this is not the player to do it with.

Are you aware he averages less than 40 even strength points? He's really bad defensively, always has been. He's bad at faceoffs. He doesn't kill penalties.

Huberdeau is a bad contract, the worst in the league. I'm saying one slight notch directly below that are guys like Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Jack Campbell and Dubois. Dubois presently is a significantly worse player than Huberdeau.

 

[kilowatt]

A year ago everyone thought LA won that trade.

You clearly weren’t reading LA’s boards then

 

[DJJones]

He's 44th in cap hit, 29th among forwards and 15th to 18th among centers (depending on who you consider a center). Its not second liner money, its still firmly 1st line money.

His career high is 63 points and both his counting stats and underlying numbers never screamed true first liner in Winnipeg.

He got paid what he did because:

-he has draft pedigree
-he has size
-he's skilled and his highs are pretty high
-he's young, so its more likely he will be physically able to play his best for the contract and may have room to grow

The only way Dubois' contract made sense was the idea/bet that he would grow into a successor for Kopitar down the line. Which wasn't an outrageous bet (and the kind of bet teams make all the time with their own young players) but the contract wasn't based on past performance and the rising cap.

There's a lot of 1st liners that aren't making 1st liner money. Just the nature of the contract system. Guys are wildly underpaid when they are young. And the older contracts are now diluted. Takes a long time to cycle through.

A legit 1C should expect 10-11 million this summer.

 

[Lt Dan]

As I said, the PLD from Winnipeg was worth 8.5M. Hell that could be a bargain in a few years. A year ago everyone thought LA won that trade.

Name 1,923 people think that LA won the trade

 

[DJJones]

He scored 9 even strength goals last year. Those are replacement level numbers. He has worse ESG/60 than AJ Greer.

I get your intention here. You want to buy low. I'm saying this is not the player to do it with.

Are you aware he averages less than 40 even strength points? He's really bad defensively, always has been. He's bad at faceoffs. He doesn't kill penalties.

Huberdeau is a bad contract, the worst in the league. I'm saying one slight notch directly below that are guys like Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, Jack Campbell and Dubois. Dubois presently is a significantly worse player than Huberdeau.

If he didn't have a horrific year he wouldn't be available.

I liked the guy in Winnipeg, I'd be happy with that player.

 

[Double Dion]

If he didn't have a horrific year he wouldn't be available.

I liked the guy in Winnipeg, I'd be happy with that player.

A sub 40 point at ES player who is bad defensively and at faceoffs for 8.5M would make you happy? I'm glad you aren't running the team then.

 

[wintersej]

Things I wonder about PLD.

How much did the 1-3-1 just mute him? He is a much much better player playing with aggression.

Is PLD really a LW?

 

[Captain Mountain]

There's a lot of 1st liners that aren't making 1st liner money. Just the nature of the contract system. Guys are wildly underpaid when they are young. And the older contracts are now diluted. Takes a long time to cycle through.

A legit 1C should expect 10-11 million this summer.

The bolded is true and doesn't change the fact the Dubois' contract was more based on what he could do in the future than based on previous performance.

I'm not sure I'd consider any UFA/RFA this offseason a One C, but how are you measureing a "legit 1C"? Because a 10 mil AAV is 11.4% of the cap. There are just over 30 players with current contracts that have signed that contract at a percent of the cap greater than that. At an 11 mil AAV (12.5% of the cap) the number is 16 players. The only centers in the NHL with that cap hit percentage than 11.4% of the cap at time of signing are MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Barkov, Kopitar, Eichel and Point (plus I guess Tavares and Seguin). Eichel, Point and Tavares are the only ones that haven't won or been a finalist for the Hart or Selke and Eichel has lead a cup champion in points.

 

[raswilliam]

 

[DJJones]

The bolded is true and doesn't change the fact the Dubois' contract was more based on what he could do in the future than based on previous performance.

I'm not sure I'd consider any UFA/RFA this offseason a One C, but how are you measureing a "legit 1C"? Because a 10 mil AAV is 11.4% of the cap. There are just over 30 players with current contracts that have signed that contract at a percent of the cap greater than that. At an 11 mil AAV (12.5% of the cap) the number is 16 players. The only centers in the NHL with that cap hit percentage than 11.4% of the cap at time of signing are MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Barkov, Kopitar, Eichel and Point (plus I guess Tavares and Seguin). Eichel, Point and Tavares are the only ones that haven't won or been a finalist for the Hart or Selke and Eichel has lead a cup champion in points.

Caps about to skyrocket, yes right now 10 million is for elite players. That's getting adjusted to elite players are getting 12-14 million.

Change has already happened, just going to take a while for players contracts to expire.

 

[crowi]

Blake should be fired right now. Of course he doesn't want to buyout his mistake, costing ownership tens of millions. Unless, of course, the ownership doesn't really care about the "on-ice product".

 

[Captain Mountain]

Caps about to skyrocket, yes right now 10 million is for elite players. That's getting adjusted to elite players are getting 12-14 million.

Change has already happened, just going to take a while for players contracts to expire.

You said this summer. So I'm trying to figure out what the measure for a 1C you're using.

 

[DJJones]

You said this summer. So I'm trying to figure out what the measure for a 1C you're using.

Nylander already set the bar and hes only a part time Center. People are saying MacKinnon took a discount. Any 1C UFA signing under 10 million is a discount at this point.

I would look at it as we just signed Dubois at 8.5M as a UFA. Was he a 2C quality player last year? No but that's about what he's paid as. Even someone like Horvat, I think that contract will age well. Paying 8.5 for a 2C is going to be the standard moving forward.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Nylander already set the bar and hes only a part time Center. People are saying MacKinnon took a discount. Any 1C UFA signing under 10 million is a discount at this point.

I would look at it as we just signed Dubois at 8.5M as a UFA. Was he a 2C quality player last year? No but that's about what he's paid as. Even someone like Horvat, I think that contract will age well. Paying 8.5 for a 2C is going to be the standard moving forward.

Nylander's more a winger, almost hit 100 points this season and has been around P/GP for 3 seasons now. Plus he got paid more because of the season he had.

Horvat got his contract in the middle of a career year and he's pretty consistently been better than Dubois, he's just older and less physically imposing.

I'll reiterate that Dubois' contract does not make sense for previous performance, but I'm also just trying to get you definition of a #1 C, which appears to be a top-5 to top-10 center or a top-5 to top-10 winger who will play center.

 

[DJJones]

Nylander's more a winger, almost hit 100 points this season and has been around P/GP for 3 seasons now. Plus he got paid more because of the season he had.

I'm also just trying to get you definition of a #1 C, which appears to be a top-5 to top-10 center or a top-5 to top-10 winger who will play center.

If the top 20 centers all required contracts this summer we'd know for a fact. That is not happening so you use recent comparables...

 

[Double Dion]

Nylander already set the bar and hes only a part time Center. People are saying MacKinnon took a discount. Any 1C UFA signing under 10 million is a discount at this point.

I would look at it as we just signed Dubois at 8.5M as a UFA. Was he a 2C quality player last year? No but that's about what he's paid as. Even someone like Horvat, I think that contract will age well. Paying 8.5 for a 2C is going to be the standard moving forward.

Nylander and MacKinnon are franchise players. Dubois is worse than the rookie who slots as our 3C right now. These aren't comparable players. You're talking like Dubois is a 2C and close to a 1C. He doesn't average 40 ES points for his career. He doesn't play a lick in his own end. He doesn't win faceoffs. It's debatable for me if he even should be playing C. I don't think you have an accurate pictures of what Dubois is, although you likely think you do. Next season go to a Kings game and watch him closely. Winnipeg utterly fleeced LA.

 

[Captain Mountain]

If the top 20 centers all required contracts this summer we'd know for a fact. That is not happening so you use recent comparables...

Who do you think the top-20 centers are?

 

[DJJones]

Nylander and MacKinnon are franchise players. Dubois is worse than the rookie who slots as our 3C right now. These aren't comparable players. You're talking like Dubois is a 2C and close to a 1C. He doesn't average 40 ES points for his career. He doesn't play a lick in his own end. He doesn't win faceoffs. It's debatable for me if he even should be playing C. I don't think you have an accurate pictures of what Dubois is, although you likely think you do. Next season go to a Kings game and watch him closely. Winnipeg utterly fleeced LA.

I watched him plenty in Winnipeg and I liked him. I have zero interest in watching the king's haha

Yes I do think he's better than zary