Proposal: Am I Not Hertley Enough For The Hertl Club?: S.J. + CAL

[WidgitRibbit]

The Sharks are unlikely to contend with their current core, so why would they commit to another long term contract with an aging veteran who is nearing the end of his prime?

IMO, the Sharks should be looking to trade Hertl, not re-sign him... with or without him, they're not going to be competitive

Agree with this also. Sharks have been drafting in the lottery for the last 2 or 3 seasons. How would anyone mention they are in “compete mode” Was it the GM that said this? Because if so, that’s just a ridiculous overstatement. Ducks and Kings and Sharks have been competing on draft places in the west for years now

 

[Perennial]

Because he provides significant value to the Sharks and even as an aging veteran, Hertl is the kind of guy that can contribute to a contending team down the road. The idea that the Sharks aren't going to be competitive anytime in the near future is likely false. And even if it were true, the player and the GM just has to believe it to come to an agreement. Teams go up and down a lot and the Sharks aren't the type of franchise to stay out of competing for the playoffs for very long. That tends to garner plenty of player loyalty knowing their organization has those goals and expectations.

The Sharks are committing more than 32 million a season to Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic and Jones... all of whom are signed at least through the 2024 season

You'll understand if I don't share your optimism that the Sharks will will be competitive in the near future...

So, IMO, by the time the Sharks come out of this nosedive and are ready to contend, Hertl will approaching his mid 30's

With 29 points in 40 games this season, what significant value is Hertl providing exactly?

If he's helping them win games, that only hurts their odds at the draft lottery... which is the opposite of what you want if you're not a playoff team

 

[Perennial]

What does the extended contract look like for Hertl?

Lucic and the 1st offset each other, if Lucic agrees to waive.

So basically two 2nds (the Florida one could be a very late 2nd as well) for an extended Hertl? I am guessing that is a big 'no' from the Sharks. I don't even think they would agree to that if you removed Lucic.

I could definitely see Hertl being a victim of the current economic climate in the NHL...

5.5 - 6 million seems about right from a team like Calgary... maybe on a 4 or 5 year deal

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The Sharks are committing more than 32 million a season to Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic and Jones... all of whom are signed at least through the 2024 season

You'll understand if I don't share your optimism that the Sharks will will be competitive in the near future...

So, IMO, by the time the Sharks come out of this nosedive and are ready to contend, Hertl will approaching his mid 30's

With 29 points in 40 games this season, what significant value is Hertl providing exactly?

If he's helping them win games, that only hurts their odds at the draft lottery... which is the opposite of what you want if you're not a playoff team

My optimism isn't what's relevant. Again, all it takes is the player and GM feeling like it's beneficial for them to sign another deal together and there's nothing to suggest that Hertl wants out or isn't interested. Same goes for DW. You can have whatever view of the team that you want but the team is not rebuilding. Considering the pandemic climate of the business, they're going to need guys on their team that can draw in fans after things get closer to normal again. Hertl is a popular player among the fans. His value isn't entirely in his production.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I could definitely see Hertl being a victim of the current economic climate in the NHL...

5.5 - 6 million seems about right from a team like Calgary... maybe on a 4 or 5 year deal

IMO even in the current era of economic/cap uncertainty, that seems a bit low. Bjorkstrand, an RFA, got 5.4x5 this year. UFA Hertl in a year? I'd expect more like (7.5 or 8.5)x4.

 

[Kcoyote3]

2021 and 2022 firsts

 

[Perennial]

IMO even in the current era of economic/cap uncertainty, that seems a bit low. Bjorkstrand, an RFA, got 5.4x5 this year. UFA Hertl in a year? I'd expect more like (7.5 or 8.5)x4.

Bjorkstrand just turned 26 a couple of weeks ago...

Hertl will be 29 by the time his new contract kicks in

7.5 million seems excessive for a guy with a career .63 PPG average

 

[Gatorbait19]

The sharks absolutely should rebuild and that includes trading Hertl.

But 31 teams beat this offer.

 

[Perennial]

2021 and 2022 firsts

I considered that... even typed it out... but ultimately settled on what you see in the OP

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Bjorkstrand just turned 26 a couple of weeks ago...

Hertl will be 29 by the time his new contract kicks in

7.5 million seems excessive for a guy with a career .63 PPG average

If you're not prepared to pay him 8 mil then there's really no point in trying to acquire him except as a rental. I mean, you're still going to pay a 1st and another asset to do that but that's what will likely be the case for Hertl's next contract.

 

[Perennial]

If you're not prepared to pay him 8 mil then there's really no point in trying to acquire him except as a rental. I mean, you're still going to pay a 1st and another asset to do that but that's what will likely be the case for Hertl's next contract.

If he hits UFA, I'd be willing to bet he doesn't get 7 million a season...

If the Sharks re-sign him, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 8

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If he hits UFA, I'd be willing to bet he doesn't get 7 million a season...

If the Sharks re-sign him, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 8

That doesn't make sense. You can't seriously believe the Sharks would be the only one to value him that highly.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The Sharks are committing more than 32 million a season to Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic and Jones... all of whom are signed at least through the 2024 season

You'll understand if I don't share your optimism that the Sharks will will be competitive in the near future...

So, IMO, by the time the Sharks come out of this nosedive and are ready to contend, Hertl will approaching his mid 30's

With 29 points in 40 games this season, what significant value is Hertl providing exactly?

If he's helping them win games, that only hurts their odds at the draft lottery... which is the opposite of what you want if you're not a playoff team

Yeah, who wants a 6’2” physical two-way center playing at a 60 point pace on an absolute garbage-fire team? No team has any need of a player like that.

Hertl has had COVID, been injured, and generally played with whatever leftover wingers we have after Couture inexplicably gets the best ones. He’s one of the only Sharks actually carrying his weight this season.

I don’t have any problem trading Hertl in the right deal, I’d be okay trading him for pure futures, and I’m not even opposed to taking back Lucic, but this ain’t it. Patrick Marleau needed a 1st round pick attached to him just to get rid of one year of salary. Lucic will need the same.

 

[Perennial]

Yeah, who wants a 6’2” physical two-way center playing at a 60 point pace on an absolute garbage-fire team? No team has any need of a player like that.

Hertl has had COVID, been injured, and generally played with whatever leftover wingers we have after Couture inexplicably gets the best ones. He’s one of the only Sharks actually carrying his weight this season.

I don’t have any problem trading Hertl in the right deal, I’d be okay trading him for pure futures, and I’m not even opposed to taking back Lucic, but this ain’t it. Patrick Marleau needed a 1st round pick attached to him just to get rid of one year of salary. Lucic will need the same.

Toronto was desperate to clear Marleau's contract in order to re-sign Marner...

Calgary isn't in the same cap predicament

 

[Perennial]

That doesn't make sense. You can't seriously believe the Sharks would be the only one to value him that highly.

Maybe a desperate team like Columbus would blow their load for him, but I don't think there will be multiple teams lining up to pay Hertl 7+ million a season...

 

[zar]

I could definitely see Hertl being a victim of the current economic climate in the NHL...

5.5 - 6 million seems about right from a team like Calgary... maybe on a 4 or 5 year deal

IMO even in the current era of economic/cap uncertainty, that seems a bit low. Bjorkstrand, an RFA, got 5.4x5 this year. UFA Hertl in a year? I'd expect more like (7.5 or 8.5)x4.

Exactly.

If Hertl is signing that 5.5-6m AAV contract, it’s not in Calgary and there is a NMC attached to it because that is a huge bargain contract.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Maybe a desperate team like Columbus would blow their load for him, but I don't think there will be multiple teams lining up to pay Hertl 7+ million a season...

Every team that has 7 mil or more would line up for that with Hertl. Easily.

 

[Cas]

Bjorkstrand just turned 26 a couple of weeks ago...

Hertl will be 29 by the time his new contract kicks in

7.5 million seems excessive for a guy with a career .63 PPG average

I think career PPG averages are pretty misleading - what you're looking at is expected future PPG, which should be higher than that (more like .75-.90) in the median term.

 

[JPeeper]

Who the hell is CAL?

It's CGY

Also, Flames decline, we keep our top 10 pick. If we were relevant and not a gongshow, I think about it, but Flames are going to stink for the next few years so it ain't worth it to trade draft picks for guys in their prime. Gaudreau is gone in 12 games at the minimum, year + 12 games at most, no point in trading for Hertl.

 

[Perennial]

Who the hell is CAL?

It's CGY

Also, Flames decline, we keep our top 10 pick. If we were relevant and not a gongshow, I think about it, but Flames are going to stink for the next few years so it ain't worth it to trade draft picks for guys in their prime. Gaudreau is gone in 12 games at the minimum, year + 12 games at most, no point in trading for Hertl.

I beat to my own drum...

 

[Perennial]

I think career PPG averages are pretty misleading - what you're looking at is expected future PPG, which should be higher than that (more like .75-.90) in the median term.

He's only been north of .75 once...

I don't know if you should expect that over multiple seasons in the future

 

[Perennial]

Every team that has 7 mil or more would line up for that with Hertl. Easily.

We'll see...

 

[Dicdonya]

Which teams with cap space to absorb Hertl's contract without sending back salary are willing to give up the assets though?

For example, I don't think teams like Ottawa, Detroit and New Jersey would target Hertl when they can just sign free-agents without giving up picks/prospects

Teams that are interested in Hertl are most likely spending near the cap, and will have to send salary back to San Jose... ideally in the form of a 2022 expiring contract

Lucic is only 1 year longer than a 2022 expiring contract

People tend to scoff at taking on a bad contract, but if the team is rebuilding, that bad contract isn't as detrimental as it would be to a team looking to maximize their cap space in order to contend

I would not scoff at taking a bad contract in a deal, in fact as someone who wants to rebuild I would gladly accept a contract like Lucic's if it facilitated a trade. However that does not mean the negative value of that contract is suddenly meaningless.

The trade in the OP is already arguably enough to get Hertl before taking into account that Lucic is attached.

If we are taking Lucic back for cap purposes CGY would still need to pay for that as they would need to if trying to trade Lucic on his own.

Then add on we are doing this with an extension in place already and the value is just not there. There needs to be something else to account for the negative value of Lucic in this deal which there isnt unless you undervalue Hertl.

 

[hohosaregood]

The Sharks are committing more than 32 million a season to Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic and Jones... all of whom are signed at least through the 2024 season

You'll understand if I don't share your optimism that the Sharks will will be competitive in the near future...

So, IMO, by the time the Sharks come out of this nosedive and are ready to contend, Hertl will approaching his mid 30's

With 29 points in 40 games this season, what significant value is Hertl providing exactly?

If he's helping them win games, that only hurts their odds at the draft lottery... which is the opposite of what you want if you're not a playoff team

Why does Calgary even want Hertl if he's not that valuable?

 

[Perennial]

I would not scoff at taking a bad contract in a deal, in fact as someone who wants to rebuild I would gladly accept a contract like Lucic's if it facilitated a trade. However that does not mean the negative value of that contract is suddenly meaningless.

The trade in the OP is already arguably enough to get Hertl before taking into account that Lucic is attached.

If we are taking Lucic back for cap purposes CGY would still need to pay for that as they would need to if trying to trade Lucic on his own.

Then add on we are doing this with an extension in place already and the value is just not there. There needs to be something else to account for the negative value of Lucic in this deal which there isnt unless you undervalue Hertl.

I wouldn't give up a 1st and a pair of 2nds without Lucic attached, so we value Hertl differently...