All-Time Draft #11, Part 1

[seventieslord]

Why? If say there are 20 picks in a row that are roughly equal, and latter in the draft there are spots like that. And team a trades up to get the 1st of the 20, but gives up 2 of the 20 to get it, and then gets a player 10 spots latter that is clearly out of the tier. Then the team receiving the 2 players in the group of 20 clearly wins out.

When you say that though, you are assuming you know exactly who will be selected where. You don't know this. Obviously there are some perceived dropoffs here and there, and some "clumps" here and there, but generally, the value differential from 1st-11th is huge compared to the difference between 11th-21st, which is greater than the difference between 21st-31st... and so on. By the time you get to 211-221 and 221-231 and so on, you could consider the differences almost negligible. The earlier in the draft you are, the more pronounced it generally gets.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

When you say that though, you are assuming you know exactly who will be selected where. You don't know this. Obviously there are some perceived dropoffs here and there, and some "clumps" here and there, but generally, the value differential from 1st-11th is huge compared to the difference between 11th-21st, which is greater than the difference between 21st-31st... and so on. By the time you get to 211-221 and 221-231 and so on, you could consider the differences almost negligible. The earlier in the draft you are, the more pronounced it generally gets.

I've always found that there are some pretty clear tiers. And if you are trading 10 or more spots down from the tier it is a very safe bet that there will be no trickle down to you. Therefore, the trade as previously described is a very bad trade.

 

[pitseleh]

Yeah, I can definitely see situations where trading down in one round and trading up an equal amount in the next would be a strategic choice. Without getting into too many specifics, I think there's a fairly strong consensus about the that there's a dropoff after the top-x number of players and that getting two picks in that tier could be considered more important than getting the pick of the litter of that tier.

After I made the trade with Spitfire last draft to trade up, I definitely had some second thoughts because of who I could have had.

 

[Spitfire11]

Lets just get to some more selections...please?

 

[arrbez]

Why? If say there are 20 picks in a row that are roughly equal, and latter in the draft there are spots like that. And team a trades up to get the 1st of the 20, but gives up 2 of the 20 to get it, and then gets a player 10 spots latter that is clearly out of the tier. Then the team receiving the 2 players in the group of 20 clearly wins out.

Exactly.

Personally, I think you get pretty similar players from the late teens to the mid 30's. But by the time we're into the 40's, I think we're in another tier. Just my opinion of course. For this reason, I'm very happy to have picks #28 and #29, which will give me two players from the higher tier if I play my cards right.

 

[EagleBelfour]

Lets just get to some more selections...please?

It's 70's turn. He has until Sunday, 12:00PM to make his selection.

 

[arrbez]

It's 70's turn. He has until Sunday, 12:00PM to make his selection.

But I want it NOW!

 

[EagleBelfour]

But I want it NOW!

You should take down your avatar until Horel and Hardy gets selected (I'll let you decide who's the fatty)

 

[arrbez]

You should take down your avatar until Horel and Hardy gets selected (I'll let you decide who's the fatty)

What, those guys? Just some drunks from the local bar. Nothing to see here.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

You should take down your avatar until Horel and Hardy gets selected (I'll let you decide who's the fatty)

And you should change your username.

 

[EagleBelfour]

And you should change your username.

If only I could.

 

[seventieslord]

I've always found that there are some pretty clear tiers. And if you are trading 10 or more spots down from the tier it is a very safe bet that there will be no trickle down to you. Therefore, the trade as previously described is a very bad trade.

OK, you got me. I had to prove it to myself on paper. It is wrong to say it's impossible. However, it is improbable that the team trading down would be at an advantage. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

I have a couple trade options that I'm going to bounce off my co-GM. Expect a pick or trade tonight.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

OK, you got me. I had to prove it to myself on paper. It is wrong to say it's impossible. However, it is improbable that the team trading down would be at an advantage. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

I have a couple trade options that I'm going to bounce off my co-GM. Expect a pick or trade tonight.

Your right, it isn't likely. I was just taking an extreme example to demonstrate why a straight across the board trade can be fair.

 

[God Bless Canada]

OK, you got me. I had to prove it to myself on paper. It is wrong to say it's impossible. However, it is improbable that the team trading down would be at an advantage. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

I have a couple trade options that I'm going to bounce off my co-GM. Expect a pick or trade tonight.

With the options you have at No. 3, I can't believe you'd even think of trading. This isn't the 20th pick here. You're getting either the best offensive player ever, or the most physically blessed player ever. If you make the trade, unless you're moving down to No. 4, you lose the trade.

 

[seventieslord]

With the options you have at No. 3, I can't believe you'd even think of trading. This isn't the 20th pick here. You're getting either the best offensive player ever, or the most physically blessed player ever. If you make the trade, unless you're moving down to No. 4, you lose the trade.

If we make the trade, the first player we pick won't exactly be chop liver, you know.

 

[God Bless Canada]

If we make the trade, the first player we pick won't exactly be chop liver, you know.

No, but you can't win the trade, either. Period.

This might be the only chance you ever get at one of the big three. You can't pass it up.

 

[chaosrevolver]

No, but you can't win the trade, either. Period.

This might be the only chance you ever get at one of the big three. You can't pass it up.

I don't agree. It depends on the return. Although giving up on one of the, if not the best player of all-time might not bring you back the best player. If your giving the other team multiple top-5 round picks and only giving up the 3rd overall and two late picks then it might turn into a win.

 

[vancityluongo]

No, but you can't win the trade, either. Period.

This might be the only chance you ever get at one of the big three. You can't pass it up.

Yeah you can. Depending on the return. Are you telling me that if you had our picks and we had yours, and I offered you 10, 47, and 66 in exchange for 3, a 23rd and a 24th, you wouldn't take it?

 

[hfboardsuser]

Another trade to announce.

:

152nd overall, 11th round

:

125th overall, 24th round

 

[EagleBelfour]

Another trade to announce.

:

156th overall, 11th round

:

125th overall, 24th round

Both the 125th and 156th picks are own by Minnesota.

 

[pitseleh]

Maybe the second picture was supposed to be the Minnesota Fighting Saints too and Nalyd is trading with himself to pass time?

 

[shawnmullin]

I hate trading honestly. Later rounds trying to move up to grab your guy I get it... trading the first rounders has warped the drafts too often.

 

[arrbez]

Maybe the second picture was supposed to be the Minnesota Fighting Saints too and Nalyd is trading with himself to pass time?

Tell Nalyd that if he keeps it up, he'll go blind.

 

[hfboardsuser]

Both the 125th and 156th picks are own by Minnesota.

Foiled again!

 

[EagleBelfour]

zzz. Not much action. I guess tomorrow will be my day.