Speculation: All purpose trade deadline / roster moves

[My Special Purpose]

Left out a key part. Trading for a guy like Ferland with term or who we will be able to sign. Makes way more than than keeping a guy you need but have no intention of re-signing.

OK, I get that. But by definition, the price for Ferland is going to be as a rental, which means, whether we're trading Ferland or the return for Ferland, the best we can expect is a rental. Nobody is trading a forward with term (or signability) for futures, just like we wouldn't.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Nope. Not at all. I don't begrudge Ferland wanting to cash in at all. It's just that, as a Hurricanes fan, I want him around for a while at a reasonable price. I don't expect him to give us any special treatment, but I'd be happy if he did.

In other words, I want him to want to be here and sign before free agency, but I'll understand if he doesn't.

Ok, I was just confused with the wording. I see you were just projecting your desires for him to prefer to stay and not questioning his actual motivations.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Ok, I was just confused with the wording. I see you were just projecting your desires for him to prefer to stay and not questioning his actual motivations.

Yeah, and the longer he's a Hurricane, the better chance we have at wearing him down.

 

[vorbis]

plus the cost of living and environment for families in NC is rather attractive relative to other NHL cities, and the income taxes are reasonably good for a non-TX/FL team.

y'know, if he's really crunching the numbers and trying to squeeze out every drop, as is his prerogative.

 

[My Special Purpose]

plus the cost of living and environment for families in NC is rather attractive relative to other NHL cities, and the income taxes are reasonably good for a non-TX/FL team.

y'know, if he's really crunching the numbers and trying to squeeze out every drop, as is his prerogative.

Actually, the taxes in N.C. kinda suck for athletes. We're in the bottom third of the league when it comes to taxes, only slightly better than the Canadian teams.

 

[Svechhammer]

Ferland is only a top 6 forward if he is playing with someone who can really drive the play (On the Canes only Aho is this). If they are going to continue to play NN with Aho instead of Ferland (I think they should) Ferland should be moved

Or realize that Svechnikov is coming into his own, will be able to drive play in the near future, and consider moving one to the off-wing and long term plan to pair them for the future. Play NN on the 1st line with Aho, Ferland and Svech together, and then see how everything else plays out.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

In defending the decision to hang on to Ferland a little longer, I discovered we are 12-3-1 over our last 16 games. I knew we were playing well.... but I had no idea it was THAT well.

That's a 128 point pace over a pretty decent sized chunk of games.

 

[GoldiFox]

Two weeks will tell us a lot more about how slim those chances are, or are not.

Two weeks with games against Buffalo, NYR (x2), NJD, Ottawa, Edmonton, and Dallas on the schedule. The Canes have been playing well enough to win 5-6 of those 7 and have a much better outlook going into Trade Deadline week.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I think we can get to 96 points.

Will that be good enough? Dunno. But you've got to make a bet.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

I think we can get to 96 points.

Will that be good enough? Dunno. But you've got to make a bet.

Sportsclubstats says 96 points gives us a 93.4% of making the dance, most likely as the 1st wild card. So at least we wouldn't get curb stomped by Tampa in round 1 if that happens....

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think we can get to 96 points.

Will that be good enough? Dunno. But you've got to make a bet.

That’s 38 points in 29 games.

Or 19-10-0, 18-9-2, 17-8-3, etc.

It’s also a 107 point pace.

Not a 120 point pace by any stretch, but it ain’t easy either.

 

[Lempo]

Page 41. The thread has gone to the

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Actually, the taxes in N.C. kinda suck for athletes. We're in the bottom third of the league when it comes to taxes, only slightly better than the Canadian teams.

While I'm not doubting your statement, I'm surprised by it. I'd be curious to see the data source.

Texas, TN, and Florida are likely among the best for taxes and I suspect places like Co, NV, MO(?) AZ.....but places like NY, California, Minnesota, NJ, MI, PA, IL, MA, OH, Maryland/DC all have to be worse, no? Particularly when you look at total tax burden. Given that there are 14 teams in those higher tax locations above and another 6 Canadian teams, I'm surprised NC is in the bottom 1/3rd.

I do get that we are only talking about state taxes, local taxes, sales taxes, property taxes here (not federal) and only for the games played here.

 

[vorbis]

I speculate that this will be post #13 or #14 in a new thread with a temporary title that eventually becomes permanent when nobody bothers to come up with something witty or sardonic enough.

 

[BB88]

McKenzie goes on Leafs lunch and says lopsided Toronto-favored stuff all the time. When the Nylander saga was going on McKenzie speculated that Slavin would have to be the piece rather than Pesce.

Either he is just throwing big names out to draw viewers or a deal hasn't gotten done because the Leafs asking prices are insane. Either way I'm not worried about getting fleeced out of a top-4 RHD, of all the teams in the league to make a good hockey deal with a Cup contender like Toronto is one of the least likely.

Canes can find another Niederreiter-Rask type swap with a team that needs a RHD rather than a Center.

I sadly am because I'd like to see them finally get to the next tier in this league.

Johnsson overall does nothing for Carolinas top6.

 

[NotOpie]

In looking out to next season and beyond there are some interesting scenarios. If we assume that the team ices a 22 man roster (1 extra forward and 1 extra defender), the front office will clearly have to be creative...not necessarily next season, but in the out years (Svechnikov and Necas extensions, for example). I also don't see this team really spending to the salary cap. Our ticket prices will be lower than most and even at 17,000 average attendance plus TV revenues plus licensing, etc., etc.,, etc. Dundon probably only squeaks out a slight operating loss or a slight operating profit. According to Statistica, the Canes posted an operating loss of about $3.9 million....with the lowest payroll in the league.

As attendance and general interest in the team grows, revenues will creep up. But if we increase payroll by, lets say $10,000,000, it's easy to see Dundon losing about the amount of that increase. Playoffs become very important to the bottom line. Those games would easily add a couple of million in revenues.

All of this is a long winded way of saying that I think Dundon and Co. will spend more money next season, but they won't be spending to the cap. My guess is somewhere between $72 million and $75 million which would put him at or around the "$10 million in losses" that he admitted he was willing to shoulder. Aho's new contract, Turbo's new contract, an anticipated re-signing of J-Willy to a 1 year deal, trading TVR and Faulk, and adding a forward in the $6 million range would put us right in that area.

So next year the team could look like:

Niederreiter (5.25)/Aho (9.5)/Teravainen (5.4)
Saad (6)/Staal (6)/Svechnikov (.925)
McGinn (.975)/Wallmark (.625)/Necas (.895)
Foegele (.747)/Martinook (2)/Maenalanen (1.25)

Slavin (5.3)/Pesce (4.025)
deHaan (4.55)/Hamilton (5.75)
Fleury (1)/Fox (.925)

Mrazek (2.25)
Nedeljkovic (.975)

With Semin's buyout and Darling's buyout included, that's about a $72.7 million payroll. Add another million or so if Aho's ask is higher. If you wanted to find a "real" goaltender, then that's likely another couple of million. Maybe McGinn gets a little more, maybe Mrazek gets a little less. Still, that looks like a fairly competitive team. Adding a forward and a defender to get to 22 adds about $1.5 million. All in all, it basically comes in somewhere around $7 million to $10 million below the anticipated $83 million cap for next season.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

That’s 38 points in 29 games.

Or 19-10-0, 18-9-2, 17-8-3, etc.

It’s also a 107 point pace.

Not a 120 point pace by any stretch, but it ain’t easy either.

To be clear: I'm not saying we will. But I think we can. To me, 96 points is the reasonable upper limit of this team's performance at present.