All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

[g00n]

There's no evidence to suggest that increased TOI dilutes point and goal rates. At least none that I have seen.

Also, given Backstrom's absence and Eller and Dowd's sporadic absences it seems like Laviolette didn't really have much of a choice but to play Kuznetsov more this season. His hand was forced, and as I mentioned I am quite interested to see what happens with Kuznetsov's TOI once all of the centers are healthy.

If you're playing in more defensive situations for 2-3 more minutes per night it's not going to affect your scoring rates?

 

[hb12xchamps]

Who the hell cares. Last season is last season. The good news is that he’s playing very well (per stats and eye test) THIS SEASON and that bodes well for Washington’s Stanley Cup aspirations.

 

[twabby]

Who the hell cares. Last season is last season. The good news is that he’s playing very well (per stats and eye test) THIS SEASON and that bodes well for Washington’s Stanley Cup aspirations.

Thank you for your contribution to the thread!

 

[twabby]

If you're playing in more defensive situations for 2-3 more minutes per night it's not going to affect your scoring rates?

Proportionally his 5v5 deployments are similar to last season. So his rates shouldn’t be affected.

 

[Hivemind]

This is the analytics thread, not the Kuznetsov thread. If your arguments about Kuznetsov don’t have anything to do with analytics, perhaps chose a different thread to post them in.

 

[g00n]

This is the analytics thread, not the Kuznetsov thread. If your arguments about Kuznetsov don’t have anything to do with analytics, perhaps chose a different thread to post them in.

Except that's not what happened, and you're not a mod. Thanks for chiming in.

 

[g00n]

Proportionally his 5v5 deployments are similar to last season. So his rates shouldn’t be affected.

What exactly do you mean here?

 

[hb12xchamps]

Thank you for your contribution to the thread!

No problem!

Edit: Random analytics so I don’t get yelled at!

2021-22 Washington Capitals Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[twabby]

What exactly do you mean here?

His deployments, in terms of QoC, zone starts, and leverage (i.e. playing more protecting a lead vs. from behind) are all very similar to last year’s deployments.

The major change of course is that his QoT is better this year, thanks mostly to sharing a ton of ice with a Hart-candidate Ovechkin. But one would expect this to increase Kuznetsov’s scoring rate this season, if anything.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Who the hell cares. Last season is last season. The good news is that he’s playing very well (per stats and eye test) THIS SEASON and that bodes well for Washington’s Stanley Cup aspirations.

only the guy who can’t let it go cares….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His deployments, in terms of QoC, zone starts, and leverage (i.e. playing more protecting a lead vs. from behind) are all very similar to last year’s deployments.

The major change of course is that his QoT is better this year, thanks mostly to sharing a ton of ice with a Hart-candidate Ovechkin. But one would expect this to increase Kuznetsov’s scoring rate this season, if anything.

are you suggesting Kuzy is simply riding coattails?

I’d suggest Kuzy is helping Hart-candidate Ovechkin be just that….

 

[twabby]

are you suggesting Kuzy is simply riding coattails?

I’d suggest Kuzy is helping Hart-candidate Ovechkin be just that….

I’m suggesting that his season last year was quite good, just like this year.

 

[kicksavedave]

If you're playing in more defensive situations for 2-3 more minutes per night it's not going to affect your scoring rates?

Interesting observation about Kuzy... he's being deployed in the Ozone starts about 6% less than last year, so more defensive and neutral starts, likely because he is PKing this year.

At the same time, his points per 60 when PKing is off the charts. In all situations he's scoring ~.87 G/60 and about 2.17 P/60. But when he's on the PK, he's scoring 2.06 G/60 and 6.17 P/60.

So basically when Kuzy is on the PK is he ~3 times more likely to score than in all situations.


*waves hand* pay no attention to the sample sizes, those rates are hilarious!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m suggesting that his season last year was quite good, just like this year.

You’re suggesting nothing has changed other than his given ice time….I call hogwash.

 

[twabby]

You’re suggesting nothing has changed other than his given ice time….I call hogwash.

Yes. The numbers are incredibly similar to last year, so why do people think he’s so much better this year? Perhaps he’s more aesthetically pleasing, but is he more effective? I’m not convinced that he is.

 

[twabby]

The 2021-22 player cards just came out on Evolving Hockey. A few interesting ones from Washington:

Spoiler: Evgeny Kuznetsov 2020-21 vs. 2021-22

No surprises given the stats I've mentioned in this thread: Kuznetsov is largely the same player as he was last season. He's just being afforded more opportunities.

Here is another reason why I suspect Kuznetsov is being perceived quite a bit differently this year:

Spoiler: Alex Ovechkin 2020-21 vs. 2021-22

He's playing alongside an MVP candidate who is driving the bus at 5v5.

Spoiler: Nick Jensen 2020-21 vs. 2021-22

Jensen is once again playing great defensive hockey, but his offensive numbers are going to regress quite a bit.

Finally, our favorite whipping boy:

Spoiler: Carl Hagelin 2020-21 vs. 2021-22

The criticism of his play this season is quite valid.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nothing like jumping on a player playing on a cold streak the last month…..he was producing and now isn’t…..pretty clear.

long season….but 21-22 Kuzy is the better player easily.

 

[g00n]

Didn't we already do this?

 

[maacoshark]

Wow a stats thread for all those that can't judge a players game by watching him play. Stats don't tell the entire story.

 

[twabby]

Didn't we already do this?

No, the player cards on Evolving Hockey were just released today.

 

[twabby]

Wow a stats thread for all those that can't judge a players game by watching him play. Stats don't tell the entire story.

How can anyone watch the games? That darn puck moves so fast!

 

[twabby]

Nothing like jumping on a player playing on a cold streak the last month…..he was producing and now isn’t…..pretty clear.

long season….but 21-22 Kuzy is the better player easily.

You know me: I love unfairly piling on Evgeny Kuznetsov!

 

[g00n]

No, the player cards on Evolving Hockey were just released today.

So what? How many games have been played since we last flogged this horse? Kuzy was hot early this year and cooled off so comparing select stats one year to the next is going to be distorted.

edit: TWO. Kuzy has played TWO more games since the last time we discussed 2020-21 vs 2021-22. Please rewind.

 

[HTFN]

So what? How many games have been played since we last flogged this horse? Kuzy was hot early this year and cooled off so comparing select stats one year to the next is going to be distorted.

Plus, again, it ignores the numerous quotes from staff and the player himself talking about the differences and what has changed. We just want to ignore all this because you can’t quantify it and then act like nothing is different, because remember: if the numbers don’t change, nothing can be different.

 

[twabby]

So what? How many games have been played since we last flogged this horse? Kuzy was hot early this year and cooled off so comparing select stats one year to the next is going to be distorted.

edit: TWO. Kuzy has played TWO more games since the last time we discussed 2020-21 vs 2021-22. Please rewind.

Please feel free to ignore that part of the post! There were other player cards posted!