All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

Discussion in 'Washington Capitals' started by ChibiPooky, Aug 21, 2014.

  1. ChibiPooky

    ChibiPooky Yay hockey!

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    Neil Greenberg has confirmed that the Caps are the only team in the division without a Director of Analytics or similar position.



    MOD NOTE: We recognize that not everyone is into deep statistical analysis. This is a thread for "extended stats" discussions. Stats can still be used in the general roster discussion to make a single point, but if someone wants to debate a player's statistical value ad nauseum, or engage in back and forth about the value of X or Y stat, it must go here. If you have extended analysis that applies in another thread, rather than jam up that thread with large charts and so forth you may want to link to a post here, or use a collapse tag in your original post. Contact a mod if you do not know how to do this.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 9, 2017
  2. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    So long as they don't hire Greenberg to fill that role... :laugh:
     
  3. HunterSThompson

    HunterSThompson Registered User

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    As fancy stats go, he mentioned a situation in Nashville where a defenseman had a huge difference in ratio of dump ins after crossing the red line to controlled entries. By looking at stats they were able to notice a situation that maybe they hadn't noticed just by watching. He said the young d-man was basically playing cautious so as to not make a mistake. They were able to sit him down and get him to change.

    He also mentioned a negative example. In the second period of a game, a line is tired and hemmed up deep in their own zone. They finally squeak the puck out and dump it after gaining the red line. He said that analytics guys would look at this is as not a good play because it was not a controlled entry, but every coach and every hockey mind out there would consider it a good play.

    He also mentioned quality of competition as a big thing. Ovechkin is for the most part going up against other teams top pairing and top scoring line (since teams don't use checking lines anymore). It is impossible to compare his analytics to anyone else that isn't in that same position.
     
  4. g00n

    g00n He'd have gotten away with it, too

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    Spot on from BT. Vindication for those of us who have argued these exact points. Gloat gloat. Sad that Hendy was victimized by fancy stat extremists.

    But seriously, in that ONE pre-season event/post we got more detailed information out of BT than Oates gave up in 2 years. And 99.999% of what I read in that summary is very encouraging. Thank you for posting it.
     
  5. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    That sounds like an appeal to authority, g00n. ;)
     
  6. ChibiPooky

    ChibiPooky Yay hockey!

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    Actually, analytics guys would completely ignore that play, as it's a line change situation (which I personally don't like).

    Quality of Competition is one of the biggest "other" #fancystats out there, though I have my beef with how it's calculated.

    But personally I don't want Trotz to be a statistician. It's enough for me if he accepts that these stats exist and have uses, and can find ways to use them (which he has in the past). I've always said that you can't coach to stats and that includes these. Coach guys to play good hockey.
     
  7. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Trotz's point is flawed, beyond the line change aspect. Analytics doesn't say "always commit [action X] since it's always advantageous." Analytics can be useful for measuring which types of plays are more frequently successful. Nobody is arguing the puck should never be dumped, or that every dump is a "bad play." A dump in can be the correct play, but the more frequently you dump it in (forced or otherwise), the lower the likelihood of your team's success. Most simply put, the "bad play" in Trotz's example already occurred, when the line became hemmed in and tired in their own zone.

    No, you shouldn't coach to increase your stats. For instance, analytics disciples would not argue for artificially inflating your possession metrics by taking wasteful shots (ie, taking pot shots from center ice). That doesn't actually increase your win percentage. However, a coach can use the stats supplied to them by qualified analysts to increase their results. Look at how Quenneville builds and deploys his lines and defense pairs. How he maximizes Duncan Keith's utility by not playing him on the shutdown pairing.
     
  8. HunterSThompson

    HunterSThompson Registered User

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    Please let's not take this opportunity to break into another fancy stats/analytics debate (I know that's not what anyone is trying to do), but let's refrain. It is like the Redskins name debate or politics, nobody's mind will be changed from talking.

    I will say, however, that there are a multitude of ways a team can be hemmed inside their own zone and be tired and also not have committed any bad play, in which case getting out of that zone without an icing, committing a penalty or surrendering a goal against is not a mere nothing play, but a great play.
     
  9. g00n

    g00n He'd have gotten away with it, too

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    I know you're half joking but you're also half serious. To which I would say, not necessarily. I'm not saying just listen to BT because he's BT, which would be an A2A. I'm saying BT and some of us have stated the exact same things and provided the same reasoning. So there's additional credibility. Other coaches might disagree.

    Authoritative opinions and appeal to authority logical fallacies are not the same things.
     
  10. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Can we just all agree to stop calling corsi, fenwick, zone starts, etc. "fancystats." They're not particularly fancy. QoC, GVT, and other calculated stats I could buy as "fancy," but possession and deployment metrics are pretty darn simple. What some of the teams and consultants do is certainly "fancy," but the public is not privy to their methods.
     
  11. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    No. Especially when you aren't proposing an alternative. Fancystats works just fine IMO...
     
  12. HunterSThompson

    HunterSThompson Registered User

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    Ostentatious analytics has a nice ring.
     
  13. RandyHolt

    RandyHolt Keep truckin'

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    It is interesting that we are the only team without a dedicated stat geek guru. Make Blaine do it.

    Maybe they have someone dedicated to monitor plain poor simple unfancy stats and its just too much keeping an eye on plus minus and Brouwers hits, for him to take on additional numbers.
     
  14. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Call them what they are. Fenwick/Corsi are possession metrics. Zone starts are deployment metrics. QoC/QoT/etc are utilization metrics. They aren't fancy nor should they always be lumped in together.

    Was basing the Beagle choice on Trotz's comments about older guys on the 4th line. We haven't signed Biznasty.
     
  15. strungout

    strungout Professional Killer

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    F'ing Stats.
     
  16. ChibiPooky

    ChibiPooky Yay hockey!

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    I'd rather have no stat guy than a half coach half stat guy. Like a centaur.
     
  17. HeyMattyB

    HeyMattyB We knew this was coming and we knew it would hurt.

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    LOL. "You monsters show my precious fancystats the respect they deserve!"
     
  18. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    I want a coach who's willing to utilize the analytics presented to him.
     
  19. g00n

    g00n He'd have gotten away with it, too

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    I'm pretty sure that's what BT does, no? How those stats are used is up to the coach. Otherwise why even have a coach? Just let stat guys run the team, right?
     
  20. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Not all coaches value the analytics. Oates and Hunter are two pretty good examples of coaches who either ignored the stats or made decisions that ran counter to them.

    It also doesn't help that the team apparently doesn't have an analytics department (though that doesn't exclude the possibility of contract work or consulting).
     
  21. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Do you really think teams need a fancystats 'department'?
     
  22. BrooklynCapsFan

    BrooklynCapsFan Registered User

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    I do and I'm not even a true believer. Look no further than our abysmal pro scouting to see that the eye test and a gut feeling ain't cutting it.
     
  23. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    I'm not saying they shouldn't have a fancystats guy. But a department...?
     
  24. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    If you're going to mine your own data, having more than one person would be all but essential. Even if you don't, a lot of teams have multiple people involved with different skills and responsibilities. Some teams split up the analysts for the GM staff and the coaching staff. Toronto just brought in at least 3 people to form their analytics dept.
     
  25. SimplySensational

    SimplySensational Heard of Hough

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    Analytics department=getting data that would of been available on Extra Skater for free.
     

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