Alexander Burmistrov "will almost certainly return to NHL"

[garret9]

Isn't James Wright outproducing him in the KHL?

Didn't in the NHL though which was my comparison, Lowry NHL vs Burmi NHL.

Wright is also riding the percentages too. 15% shooting percentage. He was about 9% in the AHL which tends to have a higher sh% than the KHL... so likely about half his goal scoring rate isn't sustainable.

 

[Sweech]

Isn't James Wright outproducing him in the KHL?

Some players outproduce others in the AHL too and then not in the NHL. That's just how it happens sometimes.

 

[garret9]

How is their defensive stats compared? Burmi played great as a 2 way player.

Here's most of the major players Jets have had on the third line at one time or another:

 

[Snot Rocket]

Isn't James Wright outproducing him in the KHL?

Yes, but I don't put much stock in it.
Wright has only scored like 4 goals in the NHL over 4 seasons or 12 points over 146 games.

Burmi at least proved he can score at the NHL level...James has shown it to be his greatest challenge and the only reason he is not in the NHL, IMHO.

 

[garret9]

Here's more of our bottom six:

 

[Aavco Cup]

Didn't in the NHL though which was my comparison, Lowry NHL vs Burmi NHL.

Wright is also riding the percentages too. 15% shooting percentage. He was about 9% in the AHL which tends to have a higher sh% than the KHL... so likely about half his goal scoring rate isn't sustainable.

It's been 2 years since he played in the NHL. How confident can we be that his performance will be similar if he returns. Is there much data in players who leave and then return? Just curious.

 

[garret9]

It's been 2 years since he played in the NHL. How confident can we be that his performance will be similar if he returns. Is there much data in players who leave and then return? Just curious.

Anything can happen, but you can guess that his scoring ability is more likely to better than when he left rather than worse due to combo of:
NHLEs (Burmi's sample > Wrights)
His age (Burmistrov left at 21... he's 23 now)
Standard developmental arcs (tendency is to peak between 24-27 in pts/min)

Not that I ever expect Burmi to be an elite scorer, but he's not poor there either:

(bars are cumulative as you move to older ages)

(bars are not cumulative)

 

[Positive]

Lowry current year > Burmi's last year, though. More pts, P/60.

 

[garret9]

Lowry current year > Burmi's last year, though. More pts, P/60.

With something as highly flux as p/60 more sample is better. Obviously you can argue that Lowry's small sample may not be indicative of him. Which is 100% possible. While it is possible that Lowry becomes a higher scorer (although I doubt given history, but it still well within the realm of possibility).

In the end though, it wasn't to say Burmi > Lowry, but rather none of us are complaining about Lowry, but we do about Burmi. Burmi had better two way numbers and comparable offense (but higher career).

 

[sipowicz]

Odd how everyone is against Burmistrov scoring numbers, when they are better per minute than Lowry's...

Lowry proved he could score and produce points at the AHL level, I would give Burmi an incomplete even at the AHL level where he had 2 goals in 22 AHL games while other young NHL players playing in the A that lockout year were tearing it up.

Lowry has proven to be a quick learner, is very coach-able and comes from a great hockey pedigree, Burmi has proven nothing through 3 pro leagues other than being a malcontent!

 

[Positive]

Regardless of his production, he'd still be an upgrade on the fourth line for pushing possession.

Don't know if he'd take that role though. Basically our 4th line minutes would be crap, as usual, unless/until he proves that he pushes play enough for the whole line to get more minutes. Or by the same token, definitively shows he's more deserving of 2nd/3rd line C duties than Scheif or Lowry, and supplants one of them.

 

[garret9]

Lowry proved he could score and produce points at the AHL level, I would give Burmi an incomplete even at the AHL level where he had 2 goals in 22 AHL games while other young NHL players playing in the A that lockout year were tearing it up.

Lowry has proven to be a quick learner, is very coach-able and comes from a great hockey pedigree, Burmi has proven nothing through 3 pro leagues other than being a malcontent!

Not saying one is better than the other, but when it comes to better production the answer is clear that Burmi has out produced. Go up and look at the graphs above.

AND STOP USING GOALS AND IGNORING ASSISTS

 

[garret9]

Regardless of his production, he'd still be an upgrade on the fourth line for pushing possession.

Don't know if he'd take that role though. Basically our 4th line minutes would be crap, as usual, unless/until he proves that he pushes play enough for the whole line to get more minutes. Or by the same token, definitively shows he's more deserving of 2nd/3rd line C duties than Scheif or Lowry, and supplants one of them.

Why would he be on the fourth line if he's superior to 2/3 of our third liners?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The fact people have him pencilled in over Lowry at 3C is too far for me. Possession stats only take you so far. He's a checking center.

Simply adding him to the fold is okay by me. Let him earn every minute he gets. It's the coach's call whether to play him or Jokinen on what line, not Alex's. The line of thinking that you do what the coach says right or wrong is one sided. The way it should be, that is.

He has the potential to help our team as much as any UFA could this summer. I'm all for giving him a chance but not if it disrupts the great thing we have going here. If we find someone better and he stays in Russia until 27, I could care less though. He plays by the rules or forget him.

What? and Lowry is a pure goal scorer?

Seriously, most people are projecting him somewhere on the 3rd line. Those who want Lowry on the 4th line put Burmi at centre. Personally I see him as a more likely fit on the wing but it could easily go either way. If Copp can also join the Jets next year or the year after then Burmi is even more likely to fit on the wing with Copp and Lowry filling 3C & 4C in whatever order works out best.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lowry proved he could score and produce points at the AHL level, I would give Burmi an incomplete even at the AHL level where he had 2 goals in 22 AHL games while other young NHL players playing in the A that lockout year were tearing it up.

Lowry has proven to be a quick learner, is very coach-able and comes from a great hockey pedigree, Burmi has proven nothing through 3 pro leagues other than being a malcontent!

Why is there a Lowry v Burmi argument going on here? Lowry 3C, Burmi 3RW.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Why is there a Lowry v Burmi argument going on here? Lowry 3C, Burmi 3RW.

Lowry 4C, Burmi 3C, Ehlers 3RW

 

[garret9]

Why is there a Lowry v Burmi argument going on here? Lowry 3C, Burmi 3RW.

Because I said if we're disappointed in Burmi's scoring, why are we not with similar to lower scoring level Lowry.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

We're near the post limit - feel free continue in his thread here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1579719&highlight=burmistrov.

Closed.