Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[SensFactor]

I actually like Tatar at 4M x 2 years over Tarasenko at 5M.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I actually like Tatar at 4M x 2 years over Tarasenko at 5M.

I wouldn't give Tatar more than 1 year and Tarasenko more than 2.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I wouldn't give Tatar more than 1 year and Tarasenko more than 2.

I agree with Tarasenko but I'd give Tatar two years.

Tarasenko has a lot of mileage on him. Could easily be an anchor in two years. HIgh risk venture. Of course his upside is pretty high as a 6-time 30 goal scorer.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Well…. f*** it, he’s gone. Add him to the list of targets when we look to crush Detroit next year…..

on we go.

 

[NyQuil]

I wouldn't give Tatar more than 1 year and Tarasenko more than 2.

You forgot about the Ottawa/Dorion tax.

 

[Hale The Villain]

You forgot about the Ottawa/Dorion tax.

I didn't forget. I just wouldn't sign them if we have to give them extra term.

 

[BankStreetParade]

LOL this guy got 4 years, no signing bonus money, a 16-team NTC (not even a NMC) and less than $8M AAV. Holy Christ I've never been so wrong about estimating a player's contract value, maybe ever.

 

[Micklebot]

LOL this guy got 4 years, no signing bonus money, a 16-team NTC (not even a NMC) and less than $8M AAV. Holy Christ I've never been so wrong about estimating a player's contract value, maybe ever.

Aside from the term, he slotted in right where I expected him too. we would likely have been offering a 10 team NTC as that's our MO, and I suspect we offered 8 yrs.

Next contract will be at 29, young enough that he can still command a big pay day, but old enough that it will probably backfire on the team that signs it... Not a bad compromise on his part, great deal for Detroit imo.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Aside from the term, he slotted in right where I expected him too. we would likely have been offering a 10 team NTC as that's our MO, and I suspect we offered 8 yrs.

Next contract will be at 29, young enough that he can still command a big pay day, but old enough that it will probably backfire on the team that signs it... Not a bad compromise on his part, great deal for Detroit imo.

You had him at under $8M AAV from age 26-30? By comparison, Timo Meier's age 26-30 earnings are $10M, $12M, $11.1M and $10.75M.

Debrincat total: $31.5M or $7.875M AAV
Meier total: $43.85M or $10.96M AAV

Debrincat took himself to the woodshed on this one. Absolutely ridiculous contract to sign. Almost all the player comps for age 26-30 seasons with his relative level of production are higher.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You had him at under $8M AAV from age 26-30? By comparison, Timo Meier's age 26-30 earnings are $10M, $12M, $11.1M and $10.75M.

Debrincat total: $31.5M or $7.875M AAV
Meier total: $43.85M or $10.96M AAV

Debrincat took himself to the woodshed on this one. Absolutely ridiculous contract to sign. Almost all the player comps for age 26-30 seasons with his relative level of production are higher.

Win for Yzerman on this one. Very surprised he could grind the DeBrincat camp down to that. They really must have wanted out and they really must have wanted Detroit. I am also surprised DeBrincat didn't bet on himself for a year but the young family may and the stability may have been a big factor

 

[SpezDispenser]

LOL this guy got 4 years, no signing bonus money, a 16-team NTC (not even a NMC) and less than $8M AAV. Holy Christ I've never been so wrong about estimating a player's contract value, maybe ever.

That's because he wanted to go to one place though.

I've personally never seen such indifference from the league when it comes to a top tiered player. Like...no team in the West could offer a solid 2nd liner and a 1st for his services in the hopes of actually getting farther in the playoffs? Maybe no team has cap space, but GMs sure spend money on crap players on July 1, so that doesn't really check out.

DBC wanted to be moved and no one but one team wanted him, sucks SO hard for us, but w/e

 

[Masterplan]

Win for Yzerman on this one. Very surprised he could grind the DeBrincat camp down to that. They really must have wanted out and they really must have wanted Detroit. I am also surprised DeBrincat didn't bet on himself for a year but the young family may and the stability may have been a big factor

Meh, I'm not convinced that Debrincat at $7.8M is a win. Is he really a 1st line winger on a contending team? To me he's a good 2nd line winger who plays on your PP. I could be wrong, but I think we dodged a albatross on this one, and I think that other GM's saw it that way too, hence blah return and lower that expected contract to DBC.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Meh, I'm not convinced that Debrincat at $7.8M is a win. Is he really a 1st line winger on a contending team? To me he's a good 2nd line winger who plays on your PP. I could be wrong, but I think we dodged a albatross on this one, and I think that other GM's saw it that way too, hence blah return and lower that expected contract to DBC.

I think this year with the cap set to go up next year was a factor. We saw a lot of players move for less.
I didn't like the fit in Ottawa so I am not stating it as a loss for Ottawa .. the return was expected to be weak.
He is a 2L player here because we have Tkachuk there. Detroit and a few other teams do not have a comparable player on their 1st line.
Its surprising to me he didn't crack the 8 mark .. And he took a discount to go to Detroit.

 

[Micklebot]

You had him at under $8M AAV from age 26-30? By comparison, Timo Meier's age 26-30 earnings are $10M, $12M, $11.1M and $10.75M.

Debrincat total: $31.5M or $7.875M AAV
Meier total: $43.85M or $10.96M AAV

Debrincat took himself to the woodshed on this one. Absolutely ridiculous contract to sign. Almost all the player comps for age 26-30 seasons with his relative level of production are higher.

"Aside from the term"

I had him getting a contract similar to Fiala for term and AAV. A 7 year deal would have brought him to 31, I don't see adding 29-31 year old seasons bringing down the AAV much if at all.

Bonus money is a bit surprising though I don't think he'd have gotten any from us either

 

[BankStreetParade]

"Aside from the term"

I had him getting a contract similar to Fiala for term and AAV. A 7 year deal would have brought him to 31, I don't see adding 29-31 year old seasons bringing down the AAV much if at all.

Bonus money is a bit surprising though I don't think he'd have gotten any from us either

Well, you use those later years to drive down the AAV. If you don't get term, the compensation is usually much higher AAV, no?

Also, why is Fiala his comp? Guy has 1 x 30G season in his career, compared to a guy with 3 (could have been 4 even with slightly less than his career sh% this year) and 2 of them at 40G.

 

[Micklebot]

Well, you use those later years to drive down the AAV. If you don't get term, the compensation is usually much higher AAV, no?

What I'm saying is 29-31 are still considered prime years, so they aren't going to bring the AAV down much, and regression or the player is at least partially offset by the caps expected increase. It's after that that things tend to drop off quickly.

Also, why is Fiala his comp? Guy has 1 x 30G season in his career, compared to a guy with 3 (could have been 4 even with slightly less than his career sh% this year) and 2 of them at 40G.

Because Fiala was a better player in their Launch years and when you factor in linemates and opportunity for other years, the argument becomes even stronger. Looks like the market agreed with me too.

 

[JD1]

That's because he wanted to go to one place though.

I've personally never seen such indifference from the league when it comes to a top tiered player. Like...no team in the West could offer a solid 2nd liner and a 1st for his services in the hopes of actually getting farther in the playoffs? Maybe no team has cap space, but GMs sure spend money on crap players on July 1, so that doesn't really check out.

DBC wanted to be moved and no one but one team wanted him, sucks SO hard for us, but w/e

This is similar to the Stone situation. There was a quote in the Athletic recently in an article about the Stone trade where an NHL exec said "I heard he only wanted to sign in Vegas" In this case it seems DeBrincat only wanted to sign in Detroit. What does it matter what other GMs will give up for him if he won't sign? It's a rental situation. On Yzerman's end, seems like he just ground him down. Take it or play elsewhere.

I think this will become a template for future situations where a guy wants to play only for X. Makes me wonder if McPhee could have ground Stone down to an 8 AAV. When it's public knowledge a player only wants to play in city X, the player loses all negotiating leverage

 

[Micklebot]

This is similar to the Stone situation. There was a quote in the Athletic recently in an article about the Stone trade where an NHL exec said "I heard he only wanted to sign in Vegas" In this case it seems DeBrincat only wanted to sign in Detroit. What does it matter what other GMs will give up for him if he won't sign? It's a rental situation. On Yzerman's end, seems like he just ground him down. Take it or play elsewhere.

I think this will become a template for future situations where a guy wants to play only for X. Makes me wonder if McPhee could have ground Stone down to an 8 AAV. When it's public knowledge a player only wants to play in city X, the player loses all negotiating leverage

I thought I heard we had a rental deal in place with NYI, there was a deadline to close with Stone, if they didn't get pen to paper before the deadline, it might have squashed the deal, and the one they did end up agreeing on was about as last min as it gets.

 

[Senovision]

I predicted DeBrincat would take a "hometown" discount. See post #3140.