Confirmed with Link: Alex Burmistrov staying in Russia next season

[JC Numminen]

I really wanted him back. I feel he would be an amazing 3rd line C for this team going forward. But not at 4 million. That is almost Ladd money. If he wants that, he should come over on a 1-2 year deal worth half of that, and prove that he is worth it.

 

[Whileee]

Pavelec got $3.9m on a long-term deal based on nothing but potential. Bogo got $5.14m for the same. Heck, Stu is getting $2.625m to do whatever it is that he does. Next years cap is going to be around $70m, which is an average of $3.04m per player on a 23-man roster. Though I don't think he's worth $4.0m this coming season, I'd rather have paid Burmi that to keep him here than to spend the $4.5m Olli made the past two seasons.

And the Jets "did fine" without him?

My biggest beef is $4.5 million for Jokinen and Setoguchi ($3 million and a 2nd round pick).

 

[tucker22*]

Has anyone heard this news from his North American agent (Mike Liut)? If I was Burmistrovs Russian agent and was only getting my share of the pie if he stayed in Russia, I would say the same thing. Lower his value in North America, increase his value in Russia....win win.

 

[surixon]

My biggest beef is $4.5 million for Jokinen and Setoguchi ($3 million and a 2nd round pick).

Olli was a consistent 50 plus point guy when he got that deal. To me it seemed like a good deal at the time and to be fair I think he came close to earning his $4.5 million last year.

Seto was just a big bust though.

Well neither are on the roster at the moment and hopefully we can use those savings to grab a couple of better pieces.

 

[ps241]

I dunno, I think everyone seems to be a bit too bummed out around here these days.

The Jets have Olli's and Seto's contracts coming off the boards (7.5 million) plus a pricey asset in Buff ($5.3 million). If there are budget restrictions we can easily work around them imo.

Deal Buff in a package for a good young player in his 2nd contract and invest those savings in other area's of the team.

This is a bit moot now, but I would have gone to $3 mil a season from Burmie as it still would be a cap savings on our third line.

Outside of our goaltending I am not really that bummed I would just prefer we avoid the free agent open market for skaters. If we are trading Buff I would prefer young assets coming back, same as Kane. I do believe there are ways we can improve the team over the next 2 to 4 years without doing much shopping in the free agent market. Not sure that the trades will get done but I will remain hopeful that we can get some things done this summer.

 

[Bob E]

For me, I'm leaning to try to maximize Burmi as an asset for trade. I think there can be better (cheaper and more productive) options out there for our third line c.

To maximize the Burmi asset, perhaps having him stay in Russia and have a big year points wise, could benefit us the most. The worst case would probably be overpaying to have him return, only to end up with limited production.

 

[BB1133]

What I find interesting about this is what will happen next year, or beyond.

He might flame out and become totally irrelevant, but if he continues to improve I think he can return. By next year he'll have banked a lot of money, so that road block might be diminished as long as the Jets give him a fair offer. Or he could just wait until he has UFA status and create a bidding war, assuming he comes close to his potential.

The fact that the Jets made an offer and Ak bars had to counter is a good sign that there is some form of mutual interest on both sides, it's just not the right time yet.

 

[Potrzebie]

Chevy and TNSE chose Noel over him. Now neither are here. I'm thinking they chose poorly, as AHL-calibre coaches are a dime-a-dozen.

So you're saying they should have let a 21 year old underproducing kid on his ELC basically run the coach out of town? That would have worked out great.

TNSE did what any workplace would have done.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Burmi had a two-year contract in the KHL. It seems that he probably had an out clause after the first year, or would have had to negotiate something. Either way, he probably had to also consider the cost of buying himself out of the second year of his contract. Perhaps he would have been inclined to buy himself out, but only if he received a high enough salary offer from the Jets to offset that cost.

In due course, we'll probably learn a bit more. It will be interesting to hear how the Jets' management comment on this.

I have a feeling the refrain we'll hear from Chevy is "we don't negotiate vs. the KHL". In fact, I think Chevy has already said something to that effect, though I can't remember if it was regarding Burmistrov or Pavelec. The problem with that line of thinking is that you keep inching closer and closer to having Burmistrov stay in the KHL until he becomes an NHL UFA.

Chevy can't have it both ways. If he wasn't prepared to engage in a KHL bidding war that artificially inflated his NHL value, then he should've traded him at the 2013 deadline and got something in return. Maybe it's 50 cents on the dollar in trade value, but that's better than the mere pennies he'd probably get for his rights now. If he wanted to sit on Burmistrov and keep his rights, then he's going to have to engage in a bidding war at some point and perhaps overpay to have him on the Jets roster.

 

[Whileee]

I have a feeling the refrain we'll hear from Chevy is "we don't negotiate vs. the KHL". In fact, I think Chevy has already said something to that effect, though I can't remember if it was regarding Burmistrov or Pavelec. The problem with that line of thinking is that you keep inching closer and closer to having Burmistrov stay in the KHL until he becomes an NHL UFA.

Chevy can't have it both ways. If he wasn't prepared to engage in a KHL bidding war that artificially inflated his NHL value, then he should've traded him at the 2013 deadline and got something in return. Maybe it's 50 cents on the dollar in trade value, but that's better than the mere pennies he'd probably get for his rights now. If he wanted to sit on Burmistrov and keep his rights, then he's going to have to engage in a bidding war at some point and perhaps overpay to have him on the Jets roster.

I think that Chevy was forced to decide whether Burmi was one of his core players when he had a slew of big RFAs and a tight salary cap after the lockout. He was probably trying to preserve cap space to ensure that he could re-sign Little, Bogo and Wheeler, and had made the decision that Burmi wasn't a core guy so he didn't make the same effort to keep him. Since Burmi was obviously not a "core" player, I tend to agree that Chevy should probably have traded him, though his trade value was diminished that year while he was playing behind Jokinen.

Now, I think Chevy just has to wait and see if Burmi wants to get back into the NHL, and hope that he either continues to develop and can help the Jets down the road, or that he maintains some trade value. I don't think that two years in the KHL is a good development either for the Jets or Burmi's NHL aspirations.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I think that Chevy was forced to decide whether Burmi was one of his core players when he had a slew of big RFAs and a tight salary cap after the lockout. He was probably trying to preserve cap space to ensure that he could re-sign Little, Bogo and Wheeler, and had made the decision that Burmi wasn't a core guy so he didn't make the same effort to keep him. Since Burmi was obviously not a "core" player, I tend to agree that Chevy should probably have traded him, though his trade value was diminished that year while he was playing behind Jokinen.

Now, I think Chevy just has to wait and see if Burmi wants to get back into the NHL, and hope that he either continues to develop and can help the Jets down the road, or that he maintains some trade value. I don't think that two years in the KHL is a good development either for the Jets or Burmi's NHL aspirations.

It would be really interesting to know what kind of offers were being thrown out there for Burmistrov at the 2013 deadline. I can't imagine his trade value was all that high, and perhaps it was reasonable to assume that his trade value would eventually improve.

Chevy seems to be gambling on Burmistrov being so willing to return to the NHL that he's willing to take a financial bath. It's a risky gamble, but it seems to match much of Chevy's risk profiling: do nothing even when it's less risky for you to make a move, hope things work out.

 

[jetkarma*]

Also just to clear the air, I was asked if Burmi could be considered better than Scheifele.

I stated:
Burmi is better shot metric player
Scheif is the better point producer

Both imperfect. Both needed.

To me it's Krejci vs Bergeron.

You were asked how you rated Scheifele , Little and Burmistrov and to rank them in order of who you would select in order. You said that the Jets need what Burmistrov brings more than they need what Scheifele does , on that we totally disagree . I also ,all day , every day take Scheifele over Burmistrov , player for player. Not even close.

 

[ps241]

It would be really interesting to know what kind of offers were being thrown out there for Burmistrov at the 2013 deadline. I can't imagine his trade value was all that high, and perhaps it was reasonable to assume that his trade value would eventually improve.

Chevy seems to be gambling on Burmistrov being so willing to return to the NHL that he's willing to take a financial bath. It's a risky gamble, but it seems to match much of Chevy's risk profiling: do nothing even when it's less risky for you to make a move, hope things work out.

His trade value was quite good "if" interested parties could agree to terms at market value going forward. Like TNSE, interested parties were unable to match the level of interest he was generating in the KHL.

 

[garret9]

You were asked how you rated Scheifele , Little and Burmistrov and to rank them in order of who you would select in order. You said that the Jets need what Burmistrov brings more than they need what Scheifele does , on that we totally disagree . I also ,all day , every day take Scheifele over Burmistrov , player for player. Not even close.

I also in the 2013 summer voted Scheifele over Burmistrov by 1 slot in the AIH top 25 U25.

I'm just saying there are things Burmistrov did that Scheifele has yet to do. Those things are 100% what I research. The value of Burmistrov beyond his points and how he was a +avg player is based on everything I do. If that were not true my 3 years of work is nothing (well except my work on goal tending).

I don't think you realize that arguing about Burmistrov's ability to severely tilt the ice is not about me being a super Burmistrov fan but rather me defending what I believe to be true about player value beyond production.

 

[surixon]

I also in the 2013 summer voted Scheifele over Burmistrov by 1 slot in the AIH top 25 U25.

I'm just saying there are things Burmistrov did that Scheifele has yet to do. Those things are 100% what I research. The value of Burmistrov beyond his points and how he was a +avg player is based on everything I do. If that were not true my 3 years of work is nothing (well except my work on goal tending).

I don't think you realize that arguing about Burmistrov's ability to severely tilt the ice is not about me being a super Burmistrov fan but rather me defending what I believe to be true about player value beyond production.

That's fair, but he also had two years of pro experience under his belt that Scheifele didn't. Also Scheifele started tilting the ice as well once he got acclimatized to the NHL. He also substantially tilted the ice at the WHC (I know small sample). I appreciate what Burmie brings but I think you are fooling yourself if you don't think that not only is Mark going to produce points but he's going to be an excellent possession player. He has all the tools, and more importantly he recognizes the importance of and is driven to be an elite two-way player.

 

[garret9]

That's fair, but he also had two years of pro experience under his belt that Scheifele didn't. Also Scheifele started tilting the ice as well once he got acclimatized to the NHL. He also substantially tilted the ice at the WHC (I know small sample). I appreciate what Burmie brings but I think you are fooling yourself if you don't think that not only is Mark going to produce points but he's going to be an excellent possession player. He has all the tools, and more importantly he recognizes the importance of and is driven to be an elite two-way player.

I think it is well beyond the realm of possibilities that Scheifele could and I have hope it is true. I would not say he will or foolish to think there is a chance he couldn't as I don't think it's a certainty. Some players can be like that. Some players can be extraordinarily dynamic offensively and have tools and want to be a two-way player and not drive puck possession. The reasonings why this happens is still a part of research although we have some ideas.

Burmistrov didn't push the play well in his rookie year and Scheifele did improve marginally from a 47% player pre-mid November to a 48.5 % player post-mid November (although his QoT also rose a lot at that time). So, I believe that acclimatization could be a hypothesis; however, I do have one problem with tossing out the significant differences between the two as nothing but need of acclimatization.

The biggest reasoning is because the difference we see in the forward and defenseman Corsi% development curve. On average, defenseman enter into the league at an older age. If acclimitzation was a major factor, you would expect the growth curves being somewhat similar but translated over to a bit of an older peek. However, what we do see is no peek with defenseman but a steady downward slope. This suggests that there is survivorship issue with only elite defenseman coming in at a young age and that age (and the developmental/regressing factors that come with age: strength, reflexes, etc.) hold a far stronger effect over Corsi% development, so comparing at similar age is better than similar years of experience.

Hypothetically if Burmistrov never went to the KHL:
Do I believe it is possible that Scheifele could grow into being a better Corsi% and p/60 player? Yes.
Do I believe it is possible that Scheifele could improve but not surpass Burmistrov's Corsi% development? Yes.
Do I believe it is possible that Corsi% players with bad p/60 can develop into a good p/60 player late in career? Yes. See Andrew Ladd in Carolina as one example (have to use 2psh% as Corsi% proxy as pre 2007-08).
Would I still have voted Scheifele before Burmistrov in the AIH Top 25 U25? Most likely.
Would I vote Scheifele before Burmistrov in the AIH Top 25 U25 for this summer? Probably although a lot of that depends on how Burmistrov would have performed, but my best guess is yes.
Do I really wish we had both players? Hell yes.

 

[jiho]

It would of been nice if Atlanta had drafted Cam Fowler instead of Burmistrov. I recall Fowler ranked in the top four of that draft and was a huge faller.

It would of also been nice if Atlanta had drafted Pietrangelo who went one pick after Bogosian.

In hindsight our D could be:

Fowler Pietrangelo
Enstrom Byfuglien
Morrisey Trouba

 

[jetkarma*]

I also in the 2013 summer voted Scheifele over Burmistrov by 1 slot in the AIH top 25 U25.

I'm just saying there are things Burmistrov did that Scheifele has yet to do. Those things are 100% what I research. The value of Burmistrov beyond his points and how he was a +avg player is based on everything I do. If that were not true my 3 years of work is nothing (well except my work on goal tending).

I don't think you realize that arguing about Burmistrov's ability to severely tilt the ice is not about me being a super Burmistrov fan but rather me defending what I believe to be true about player value beyond production.

It still comes down to the basic question and answer ( or no answer ) you select which one over the other? You stated Winnipeg needs what Burmistrov brings/provides more than they need what Scheifele does. It also is about what is ahead , 1000 out 1000 times I pick 55 , no hesitation , not even close. Name the true hockey people that would trade Scheifele straight up for Burmistrov.

 

[Jet]

well, at least he and Telegin can hang out and be besties

Oh, they will

I just don't get all the Burmistrov hate. Never have. He didn't slight anyone and operated well within his rights. I am disappointed that he's staying but I get it. If you could play pro in your hometown for the team you grew up worshipping and make a LOT of money you would too and if you say you wouldn't I'd question your honesty.

Even if you don't like him for some bewildering reason, you at least should be disappointed that the Jets will be without a piece of their organizational depth for another year.

 

[Jet]

For such a supposedly strong possession player, a player that it was claimed ad nauseum on this board to have pushed the play forward and allowed line-mates to score at a higher pace versus when playing with others, one would think that Burmistrov would have at least been able to leach points at a good clip. Nope. He put up incredibly pedestrian numbers where it matters, on the score-sheet. He scored 10 lousy points here 2 years ago. Easily replaceable. Jokinen conversely put up 43 points in his absence last year, and the team would have likely finished higher if they'd had any goal-tending.

These same people are claiming on twitter that Burmistrov not returning to the Jets is some sort of a loss that represents poor asset management. Not really a loss whatsoever when viewed in the context that he wasn't here last season, and that the club retains his NHL rights as for long as they continue to qualify his contract each year. They eventually may get at least something in return for him at some future date as well.

In summary, the Jets will have zero difficulty replacing a player that didn't play for them last season. One door closes, another opens.

Riiiight, because our organization has shown that they go out and replace players pronto.

Give me a break. We will pick up more waiver scraps, have a ****** goaltender, and miss the playoffs again. I don't want to believe that is what is going to happen, but all signs point to it.

A team with Burmistrov in the bottom 6 is a tonne better than one without him. Your complete unwillingness to give him any credit won't allow you to see that.

 

[Koonta]

I'm not so sure. The "Claude Noel" issue, which I think was pretty evident, was the reason he left. Going home and experiencing playing at home in front of friends and family for way more money is why he's staying. That, and he's honouring the two-year deal he signed. I don't blame him in the least for leaving or for staying.

Chevy and TNSE chose Noel over him. Now neither are here. I'm thinking they chose poorly, as AHL-calibre coaches are a dime-a-dozen.

I don't know how people can consider a former 8th-overall selection not playing here and the team getting nothing in return to be not that big of a deal, especially when you look at the dearth of depth on this team. But oh well, Chevy'll fix it, right?!

So what if we had a different coach with vast NHL experience like Maurice at the time that also benched Burmi? Would he have gotten a free pass with you just because he is not an AHL-calibre coach? If the reason he left was because of the 'Claude Noel issue' then I'm glad he is gone because that would mean he is an entitled little brat. There was also reports of Burmi not seeing eye to eye with teammates either so maybe it was a 'Burmi issue' after all.

What if there was no problem with the coach at all and Burmi still left for the KHL because he received a more lucrative deal to play over there? Whose fault would that be? I don't blame Burmi for taking the more lucrative deal but I certainly don't blame Chevy and TSNE for not giving an unproven kid more than he deserves either.

Some people sure like to blame Chevy for everything and it's bordering on irrational at this point

#whatischevybeingblamedfornow

 

[garret9]

Burmistrov DID score at a higher clip when in the top 6...

These are Burmistrov's rates with particular players

For comparison sakes here is the 5v5 point production 2011-14 of some players:
Wheeler 2.07
Ladd 2.04
Kane 2.00
Welwood 1.97
Little 1.82
Scheifele 1.49 (1.67 in 2013-14)
Jokinen 1.41

But keep trying.

Note, I do not think that Burmistrov would sustain those rates, just saying he DID get points from his possession play when given opportunity on scoring lines. Possession is an important part of improving a players scoring. Just take a look at Kane's 2013-14 goal scoring and shot rates relative to his lines Corsi:

 

[AWSAA]

If you could play pro in your hometown for the team you grew up worshipping and make a LOT of money you would too and if you say you wouldn't I'd question your honesty.

You don't see it in NHL with Canadian players though. When was the last time a Canadian star (who wasn't on their last legs) showed any desire to return to this country via FA or trade?

 

[garret9]

You don't see it in NHL with Canadian players though. When was the last time a Canadian star (who wasn't on their last legs) showed any desire to return to this country via FA or trade?

How often is the home team paying almost 2x the amount after taxes and speaks another language?

 

[Jet]

How often is the home team paying almost 2x the amount after taxes and speaks another language?

I really think people underestimate the cultural difference here. If Burmistrov was alone I'd agree but look at the history of Russians in North American hockey.