Adam Larsson Thread Version: The Second One

[Devilsfan992]

Of d-men picked in the top 5, going from 2005-2009, only Doughty and Pietrangelo have stepped in immediately and become true franchise players.

There's a solid (post-lockout) case against taking d-men in the top 5. They either take time like Hedman. Or they become a useful but flawed player (Bogosian, Gudbranson, Alzner, E. Johnson,). Or they bust.

We'll see how Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Ekblad, Hanifin and others do. They seem like surer bets, but the trend is not in their favor.

I do agree that last night Larsson looked the same as his rookie year.

There are a ton of solid defensemen. Dougie Hamilton, Cam Fowler, and Myers as well. Ekblad is looking great so far and of the others you mentioned Bogosian and Johnson are solid players. Hedman is definitely a franchise player.

 

[Oneiro]

Larsson's early career "struggles" will be a blessing in disguise when we are trying to manage the cap in 2020.

Not everyone is going to take a discount like Greene and Henrique.

EDIT:

I was talking about using a top 5 pick and expecting that player to be a clear cut no. 1.

And I consider Myers, Hamilton and Fowler quite flawed in a lot of areas and not the dominant players that Doughty, Pietrangelo and (now) Hedman are.

 

[Sykie]

Regardless of what we think of Larsson now I think we can all agree that he was the "logic" choice back then at the draft. So I'm not sure there is a sense to talk so much about how he was drafted 4th OV, it's not like he was a reach back then.

I agree with some people here to say that several young players still found ways to have impact with the Devils and really, I don't like the "it's the organisation fault" excuse for Larsson. It's just that, an excuse. And it's just not true IMO.

Still he is 22 and the final word didn't come yet. I think he still can become a valuable top-four, which is not so terrible in the end.

 

[AfroThunder396]

The is no average development path for top-5 picks.

There is no average development path for ANY picks.

Every single player is a unique human being with unique circumstances.

Constantly moving the goal posts from "he sucks", to "he hasn't made progress", to "he should be doing better based on where he was drafted" doesn't do anything to change that.

We can demonstrate objectively with math and statistics how incorrect some of these positions are, yet people will continue to see what they want to see.

 

[njdevsfn95]

With what our future D corps looks like, Larsson is going to have a big role in a YOUNG defense.

One reason we should dump Zids and drop Harrold is to figure out how Greene-Severson-Gelinas-Larsson-Merrill-Helgeson best fit together. Deal with their growing pains in a season where playoffs are pretty much not happening.

 

[tailfins]

Seems like this is a discussion just to have a discussion.

Who cares where Larsson was picked? That's all hindsight.

Larsson seems to be developing into (shocker)... Sami Salo. Big, mobile defenseman, mostly a shutdown guy, top four ability, not particularly physical, and with flaws. Salo played 14 years in the NHL. That's a good career and it would be pretty impressive if Larsson can do the same.

 

[HobokenIrish]

Well I am optimistic. Larsson is extremely young and has time to show all of the promise that comes with where he was drafted.

I am rooting for him

 

[NJDevs26]

What's really ironic about the whole Larsson thing and people viewing him with more of a microscope cause he was drafted #4 is people legit thought he was going to be the top pick at different points before the draft. Imagine the narrative if the current lottery rules were in place where winning the lottery actually got us the #1 pick and we picked him there?

It's not like most of the top five that year are really setting the world on fire either. Has Huberdeau really broken out yet? It took Strome till this year to break out somewhat. Landeskog's been up and down. Nugent-Hopkins has been better last year and this year but not really to the level of a 'top overall pick' himself.

The is no average development path for top-5 picks.

There is no average development path for ANY picks.

Every single player is a unique human being with unique circumstances.

Constantly moving the goal posts from "he sucks", to "he hasn't made progress", to "he should be doing better based on where he was drafted" doesn't do anything to change that.

We can demonstrate objectively with math and statistics how incorrect some of these positions are, yet people will continue to see what they want to see.

I don't disagree but now it just has the feeling like well he's finally got coaches that are going to be in his corner and give him an opportunity, if he screws it up now then the cynics (including Pete) were right about Larsson. I mean it's his fourth year - though really only his third in the NHL since he played like 50 NHL games the last two seasons - but by the same token with all these young defensemen in the system he'd better establish a foothold now or fall by the wayside.

 

[JimEIV]

We can demonstrate objectively with math and statistics how incorrect some of these positions are, yet people will continue to see what they want to see.

This is a joke and a complete diversionary tactic. And you know it.

Shall we demonstrate with math the trajectory of Doughty, Sutter, Bogosian, Hedman or any elite defenseman's first 4 years and see how Larsson compares? I did this last year, for you.

Forget those guys, his own classmates in Brodin and Hamilton are flying by him...shall we demonstrate with math how he compares to them?

Stop trying to create an illusion that just doesn't exist. He is floundering

 

[devilsblood]

This is a joke and a complete diversionary tactic. And you know it.

Shall we demonstrate with math the trajectory of Doughty, Sutter, Bogosian, Hedman or any elite defenseman's first 4 years and see how Larsson compares? I did this last year, for you.

Forget those guys, his own classmates in Brodin and Hamilton are flying by him...shall we demonstrate with math how he compares to them?

Stop trying to create an illusion that just doesn't exist. He is floundering

But you are cherry picking. His point seems to be that guys develop at different rates, your picking guys who developed quicker(though Hedman had his share of struggles) and thus these examples do not contradict his point.

 

[JimEIV]

But you are cherry picking. His point seems to be that guys develop at different rates, your picking guys who developed quicker(though Hedman had his share of struggles) and thus these examples do not contradict his point.

I'm Not cherry picking...I'm doing quite the opposite...Pick any elite dman and look at their trajectory in their first 4 years.

I will bet you for ANY elite Dman that ever was, you can't find one that wasn't playing top 4 minutes by year 4.

Maybe Chara being an exception...Chara took a long time to get comfortable in that frame of his.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

A lot of people are forgetting Larsson was one of our best d-men his rookie year. He was averaging 22-23 minutes a game, getting time on the PP. Then was leveled by Subban and was never really the same. He's picked it up substantially this year though. To say he's floundering isn't really fair.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm Not cherry picking...I'm doing quite the opposite...Pick any elite dman and look at their trajectory in their first 4 years.

I will bet you for ANY elite Dman that ever was, you can't find one that wasn't playing top 4 minutes by year 4.

Maybe Chara being an exception...Chara took a long time to get comfortable in that frame of his.

So are we on the "elite defenseman or bust" train?

 

[JimEIV]

So are we on the "elite defenseman or bust" train?

I've NEVER used the word "bust". I've always said he can be a very good top 4 defenseman. The caveat being that is NOT what you expect to get from a #4 overall.

Don't understand what is so hard to understand about that?

With a #4 overall you expect something closer to Ducan Keith than Mark Fayne...You know what I am saying?

That is a disappointment for top #4 pick, sorry if the expectation level is too high, but that comes with being #4 overall.

 

[njdevsfn95]

Larsson's biggest problems have been injuries and mumps.

There is no discernible reason that Peter Harrold plays more minutes than him nor Gelinas.

If you want to look at "advanced statistics" go ahead, you'll get the same answer. Unless you want a player that is on the ice for more goals against every 60minutes

Larsson should be getting more time than Harrold but isnt. Has nothing to do with his "floundering development" but something no one here can put their finger on with certainty.

 

[JimEIV]

Larsson's biggest problems have been injuries and mumps.

There is no discernible reason that Peter Harrold plays more minutes than him nor Gelinas.

If you want to look at "advanced statistics" go ahead, you'll get the same answer. Unless you want a player that is on the ice for more goals against every 60minutes

Larsson should be getting more time than Harrold but isnt. Has nothing to do with his "floundering development" but something no one here can put their finger on with certainty.

Did you not watch the Ranger game? Larsson was a train wreck and so was Gelinas. But at least Gelinas brings something to the table no one else does.

 

[njdevsfn95]

Did you not watch the Ranger game? Larsson was a train wreck and so was Gelinas. But at least Gelinas brings something to the table no one else does.

I did watch that game. Larsson did have a few bad shifts but then again he saved Gelinas on more occasions than Gelinas saved him.

But if you want to look at one game you can make Harrold look like Neidermayer if he puts a puck in the net and manages not to be on the ice for one against.

 

[devilsblood]

I've NEVER used the word "bust". I've always said he can be a very good top 4 defenseman. The caveat being that is NOT what you expect to get from a #4 overall.

Don't understand what is so hard to understand about that?

With a #4 overall you expect something closer to Ducan Keith than Mark Fayne...You know what I am saying?

That is a disappointment for top #4 pick, sorry if the expectation level is too high, but that comes with being #4 overall.

Yeah the "bust" line was put in for effect. IE he's not going to be an elite defensemen therefore we should be dissappointed.

And I agree considering where he was drafted(I'm not one to say draft position is not a factor in such discussions) we certainly did hope for more.

Conversely we have seen a fair amount of guys drafted top 5 who never panned out at all. There is a reality that says getting "merely" a solid player at that pick is acceptable.

Still he's only 22 and we've seen a fair amount of odd situations regarding his development, the mumps being latest. So I'm still hoping from bigger things.

 

[devilsblood]

Did you not watch the Ranger game? Larsson was a train wreck and so was Gelinas. But at least Gelinas brings something to the table no one else does.

I did watch that game. Larsson did have a few bad shifts but then again he saved Gelinas on more occasions than Gelinas saved him.

But if you want to look at one game you can make Harrold look like Neidermayer if he puts a puck in the net and manages not to be on the ice for one against.

Ya it's not as if we have not seen Severson get burned on the outside, or Merrill ever make a bad pass.

Can't take a couple plays from a sinble game and slap the "train wreck" label on a guy.

 

[JimEIV]

I did watch that game. Larsson did have a few bad shifts but then again he saved Gelinas on more occasions than Gelinas saved him.

But if you want to look at one game you can make Harrold look like Neidermayer if he puts a puck in the net and manages not to be on the ice for one against.

This is becoming a reoccurring theme...Yeah he was bad but the other guy sucks too...

The reality is he had a "few bad shift" with the least amount of ice time among the D.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah the "bust" line was put in for effect. IE he's not going to be an elite defensemen therefore we should be dissappointed.

And I agree considering where he was drafted(I'm not one to say draft position is not a factor in such discussions) we certainly did hope for more.

Conversely we have seen a fair amount of guys drafted top 5 who never panned out at all. There is a reality that says getting "merely" a solid player at that pick is acceptable.

Still he's only 22 and we've seen a fair amount of odd situations regarding his development, the mumps being latest. So I'm still hoping from bigger things.

Now Yakupov....That looks like a bust to me

 

[njdevsfn95]

This is becoming a reoccurring theme...Yeah he was bad but the other guy sucks too...

The reality is he had a "few bad shift" with the least amount of ice time among the D.

Least amount of time was Gelinas but good point!

Larsson was out there for more PK time than anyone but Greene (1 second).

But sure, let's just look at a few bad shifts - none of which resulted in a goal against - and conclude that anyone that played more didn't have as many bad shifts given their ice time either.

I should just ignore the two times in the 3rd period alone that Harrold was stuck on extended shifts. I wonder if he had anything to do with getting stuck out there for so long. Couldn't be the long change either...

 

[devilsblood]

This is becoming a reoccurring theme...Yeah he was bad but the other guy sucks too...

The reality is he had a "few bad shift" with the least amount of ice time among the D.

His insertion onto the PK unit a couple months back helped make it go from absolutely horrid to perfect for the next 20 or so pk's. That actually really happened.

So let's stop this narrative before it spins out of control.

 

[JimEIV]

Least amount of time was Gelinas but good point!

Larsson was out there for more PK time than anyone but Greene (1 second).

But sure, let's just look at a few bad shifts - none of which resulted in a goal against - and conclude that anyone that played more didn't have as many bad shifts given their ice time either.

I should just ignore the two times in the 3rd period alone that Harrold was stuck on extended shifts. I wonder if he had anything to do with getting stuck out there for so long. Couldn't be the long change either...

You honestly don't see Larsson continue to make fundamental mistakes over and over? The same ones repeatedly?

I understand we all have a burning desire for him to do well but he doesn't and hasn't instilled confidence in any of his coaches and they all have said so in various ways.

The Harrold sucks, Salvador sucks thing is a red herring. It's soley about Larsson and his development and it hasn't been that good.

 

[devilsblood]

I actually think Harrold is an OK player. I just don't like him playing over the young guys.

Similar to my take on Gio in previous seasons.