Adam Larsson Thread Version: The Second One

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I think he is a very average player on a very average development curve that has plenty of opportunity to show something...

And what he has showed is he is very average.

Might as well start this off with a glowing report from our biggest Larsson fan.

As follows is my necessary and required statistically-inclined rebuttal:

Possession (LINK):
There are currently 6 Devils with higher rates of possession than Adam Larsson on the Devils. He's tied with Elias. This means that, despite having THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF DEFENSIVE ZONE STARTS (LINK) on the team, Larsson is consistently moving the puck OUT of the defensive zone, and up the ice, leading to shot attempts at the opponents net.

A huge and very important facet to these numbers, IMO, is that when on the ice with his most common partner so far (Seth Helgeson), Larsson has a putrid 39.1 CF% (LINK). Without Helgeson, Larsson is at 58.9%, which is just simply very good. Along that line, he and Gelinas together have posted an absurd 67.6 CF%. There are likely usage factors into those number without Helgeson amd with Gelinas, who have been heavily buried and heavily sheltered, respectively. But the point is that, even if the minutes are easy, and the sample sizes not very large, things have been going exceptionally well for the Devils with Larsson on the ice. There are other players on the Devils playing much easier minutes that can not say that for themselves.

Offense:
Larsson is 7th on the team in ES pts/60. Just think about that. Relative to even-strength ice time, Larsson puts up points more often than Jagr, Ruutu, Gelinas, Zidlicky, Gomez, Greene, Merrill, and Severson, among others. This is all DESPITE the fact that Larsson has one of the lower on-ice shooting percentages and PDO (LINK) on the Devils. Basically, although he isn't racking up points, he's producing offense much more often than you'd expect considering his usage and his puck-luck. There are other players on the Devils with more sheltered usage, and more puck-luck, that can't say that for themselves.

Basically, he's been pretty damn good so far. There is plenty of room for improvement, and I'm not here trying to tell you he's secretly playing like a #1 defenseman or the best on the Devils. But any reports of him being below average or struggling (which is NOT what Jim said) are simply SO off-base that I wouldn't pay them any mind. We could very well still have something special in Adam Larsson, and I believe he's been showing that more and more since his limited time last season.

Click to read more...

 

[JimEIV]

Oh boy...the 16 game stat analysis.. here we go. Pretty good for a dozen games in his 4th pro year? Ok?

His development curve has been slow and extremely disappointing for a 4th overall pick...please don't misunderstand me, I'm not saying he is a bad hockey player, in fact I'm saying he is a good player and once he cleans up some things he'll be a good top 4 dman and if he was taken in the 2nd or 3rd round we would all be rejoicing...but he was a 4th overall

 

[NJDevs26]

Do we even need another Larsson thread at this point? At least with the coaching change and the team's position in the standings Larsson should get a fair shake for the rest of the season even if Pete's half-brother Skippy Oates goes behind the bench.

 

[JimEIV]

Do we even need another Larsson thread at this point? At least with the coaching change and the team's position in the standings Larsson should get a fair shake for the rest of the season even if Pete's half-brother Skippy Oates goes behind the bench.

Preemptive I see...it won't be the 4 years of development it'll be a coaching change? Interesting thought process.

 

[NJDevs26]

Not when Larsson's getting sub-15 minute games. Development hasn't helped his ice time improve this year, even when he's been getting PK minutes. If he's still getting sub-15 minute games under the next coach then it's a lot more feasible he's a limited player and expectations need to be adjusted. If he's suddenly getting 18-20 minutes a game and playing in all situations then you have to question why he wasn't playing that much earlier in the year, even when he was being trusted with PK minutes.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

when Larsson and Gelinas COMBINED are getting less minutes than Peter Harrold (some games) and Marek Zidlicky (most games), theres a problem. period, end of story.

 

[JimEIV]

Not when Larsson's getting sub-15 minute games. Development hasn't helped his ice time improve this year, even when he's been getting PK minutes. If he's still getting sub-15 minute games under the next coach then it's a lot more feasible he's a limited player and expectations need to be adjusted. If he's suddenly getting 18-20 minutes a game and playing in all situations then you have to question why he wasn't playing that much earlier in the year, even when he was being trusted with PK minutes.

Except it is not true...5v5 this season there is less than a minute difference between Harrold, Salvador Gelinas and Larsson...

But go on with the narrative I find it ammussing.

 

[NJDevs26]

Except it is not true...5v5 this season there is less than a minute difference between Harrold, Salvador Gelinas and Larsson...

But go on with the narrative I find it ammussing.

How many games has Larsson BEEN in the lineup with any or all of the above? He was being sat for Gelinas early in the season, and only got in the lineup after Sal got hurt. Harrold played the majority of his games after Larsson got the mumps.

 

[JimEIV]

How many games has Larsson BEEN in the lineup with any or all of the above? He was being sat for Gelinas early in the season, and only got in the lineup after Sal got hurt. Harrold played the majority of his games after Larsson got the mumps.

Not sure what any of this has to do with "minutes".

You're trying to take specific situations and call them trends...when the fact of the matter is playing time has been pretty evenly distributed amoung most of the players being mentioned.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

are we talking TOTAL minutes or minutes per game?

also, backup?

 

[JimEIV]

are we talking TOTAL minutes or minutes per game?

also, backup?

Average time per 60 5v5, so per game.

 

[NJDevs26]

ESTOI:

Larsson 13:26
Salvador 14:27
Gelinas 14:28
Harrold 15:08

Larsson getting fewer 5x5 time than Gelinas is actually laughable. It's more like a two-minute difference with Harrold. And Sal was getting so much PK time early in the season it surely cut into his even-strength time. Plus he was benched/hurt in a couple of his games.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Harrold is getting 1:42/game more than Larsson.

that in itself is laughable. "less than a minute"

 

[MadDevil]

What does it matter? The coach who was supposedly holding him back and abusing him is gone.

 

[NJD Kula]

The Rise of Larsson and the Devils

Goodbye McEichel

 

[JimEIV]

ESTOI:

Larsson 13:26
Salvador 14:27
Gelinas 14:28
Harrold 15:08

Larsson getting fewer 5x5 time than Gelinas is actually laughable. It's more like a two-minute difference with Harrold. And Sal was getting so much PK time early in the season it surely cut into his even-strength time. Plus he was benched/hurt in a couple of his games.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from...but Behind the Net has Harrold at 14:46 and that 46 is a fraction so its about 14:30


http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

 

[NJDevs26]

NHL.com lists TOI per game for even-strength/SH and total. Per 60 minutes doesn't take into account all the 65-minute games we play (and Larsson gets very little 4-on-4 OT time on top of it) so I go by straight situational per game TOI numbers:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8476457&view=splits#&navid=nhl-keymatch
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8472394&view=splits
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8475199&view=splits#&navid=nhl-keymatch
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8460626&view=splits

 

[glenwo2]

Do we even need another Larsson thread at this point? At least with the coaching change and the team's position in the standings Larsson should get a fair shake for the rest of the season even if Pete's half-brother Skippy Oates goes behind the bench.

Or we could get a Walrus(Maclean) as Head Coach instead?

At the very least, any new head coach will at least give everyone(which includes Lars) a fair shake.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Oh boy...the 16 game stat analysis.. here we go. Pretty good for a dozen games in his 4th pro year? Ok?

His development curve has been slow and extremely disappointing for a 4th overall pick...please don't misunderstand me, I'm not saying he is a bad hockey player, in fact I'm saying he is a good player and once he cleans up some things he'll be a good top 4 dman and if he was taken in the 2nd or 3rd round we would all be rejoicing...but he was a 4th overall

Won't disagree with any of that, in fact I practically stated so in the OP.

But as for 16 games, generally 10 games is enough for shot attempt numbers to "mean something," thanks to their high volume per game compared to shots or goals. And this is the internet. We all make sweeping judgments based on much less than 16 games.

 

[glenwo2]

Very encouraging that Adam will now get a fair shake as far as development goes, thanks to having Stevens there.

 

[tycobb]

5on5 - PTS/60
11-12 - .52
12-13 - .61
13-14 - .44
14-15 - 1.09

GA60
11-12 - 2.345
12-13 - 2.125
13-14 - 1.911
14-15 - 1.639

FF%
11-12 - 49.6
12-13 - 51.4
13-14 - 55.2
14-15 - 50.8

Larsson would be farther along if we had a coach that actually cared about the develop of the future core. Larsson probably missed 50 games over the last 4 seasons because of Pete.

 

[Devils86]

All the Larsson excuses are gone... He has forty plus games now to show all of us who think he is an average talent wrong.

 

[glenwo2]

All the Larsson excuses are gone... He has forty plus games now to show all of us who think he is an average talent wrong.

Don't worry.

He will.

 

[Devils86]

Don't worry.

He will.

I really do hope so... Wouldn't mind being wrong on this one

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

All the Larsson excuses are gone... He has forty plus games now to show all of us who think he is an average talent wrong.

if he was an "average talent" he wouldn't have went 4th overall.

what a ridiculous statement.