Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part XXXVI

[Langway]

There's a significant difference between top pairing and shutdown pairing, particularly on a contender. Carlzner is an adequate shutdown pair but an inadequate top pair on a contender. A strong top pair is supposed to eat 5-on-5 minutes and dominate matchups at both ends of the ice. To this point Carlzner neutralize matchups but haven't displayed the ability to take it to that next level. Alzner has limitations in being able to do that, as do Orpik and Orlov. Carlson is capable IMO but with no clear top pairing partner even with improved depth it's very much a committee approach overall. Paying that much that long for Orpik is a recipe for mediocrity but hopefully expansion will help them out with that before too long.

Good coaching will help. Situational D pairings and usage will help. Continued weak center play won't help and it also remains to be seen whether this forward group can play smarter on the forecheck and in the neutral zone. They're better and should at least compete for a playoff spot but it's hard to have high expectations. The many forward wildcards--Kuznetsov, Wilson, even maybe Burakovsky--are what I'll perhaps be most interested in monitoring.

 

[Mothra]

Ok...so, lets just forget that he lead the league. it was only by one goal. it doesn't really count. right? ok then. He was among the league leaders. He was also 6th in points per game. Using points per game means that he missed 10 of the 48 games. That's bad. But then that also pumps up the goals thing.

It was a shortened season. That cuts both ways. Based on this past season the games he missed in the shortened season may well have been all he missed. Were he to have done that and produced at anything like his pace that season, its much more impressive.

Had he not produced in that short season, that lack of production would be used to rip him further.

You always miss the point about 52 and him missing games....

He has been injury riddled over the past several seasons, im sure you agree. My point is producing over half a season is nice, it really is...but for this player, where durability is a big question mark, he needs to have that kind of production for a full season....and then in the playoffs

You really seem to just want to dismiss this...like missing games is not bad.

I also don't get your view on his playoff performances, even recently. Do you really think 4 points in a 7 game series loss is something to sing about? Im not saying he stunk but he wasn't some dominant game breaker that's for sure. I still say his best and most impressive hockey has never been in the playoffs

Should be an interesting season....hopefully being healthy and solid coaching will return him close to his former self....which was Norris finalist and 1st team all-star

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

He has been injury riddled over the past several seasons, im sure you agree. My point is producing over half a season is nice, it really is...but for this player, where durability is a big question mark, he needs to have that kind of production for a full season....and then in the playoffs

It was not production over a half season. It was production over a month.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/3172/year/2013/mike-green

I think a lot of people skipped watching that season. And I can't say I blame them.

 

[usiel]

I think all these D debates can be summed up as 2014-2015 >> 2013-2014.

 

[txpd]

It was not production over a half season. It was production over a month.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/3172/year/2013/mike-green

I think a lot of people skipped watching that season. And I can't say I blame them.

it was the closing segment of the season. yes? so, the lack of a full season could have just as easily kept him from greater production as it gives your its only one month argument.

 

[txpd]

I think all these D debates can be summed up as 2014-2015 >> 2013-2014.

not really. I can take what we see here and give you this.

Niskanen was a one season flash in the pan and will drop to the 3rd pair. Orpik is already no better than a 3rd pair and is injury prone now. Green is injury prone. Orlov is injury prone. 20 games into the season the Caps d is

Alzner Carlson
Schmidt Carrick
Hillen Niskanen

that would be worse.

 

[usiel]

not really. I can take what we see here and give you this.

Niskanen was a one season flash in the pan and will drop to the 3rd pair. Orpik is already no better than a 3rd pair and is injury prone now. Green is injury prone. Orlov is injury prone. 20 games into the season the Caps d is

Alzner Carlson
Schmidt Carrick
Hillen Niskanen

that would be worse.

I'm not talking about future speculation/crystal ball'ing. Right now on paper this years D >> last year D on this date.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

it was the closing segment of the season. yes? so, the lack of a full season could have just as easily kept him from greater production as it gives your its only one month argument.

He had the opportunity to build on that season under the same coach within the same system in a full season. He did not.

 

[txpd]

He had the opportunity to build on that season under the same coach within the same system in a full season. He did not.

actually, he did not. he was skating with the puck and being offensively aggressive in the first oates season. in the second season he was told not to do those things. oates said publically that he did not want offense from green. when he was not pulling himself back to oates satisfaction he was removed from the pp.

his es strength numbers last season were better than the previous season.

you didn't hear oates over and over again??

 

[txpd]

I'm not talking about future speculation/crystal ball'ing. Right now on paper this years D >> last year D on this date.

that I agree with. I also think these players that so many don't like will be pretty strong. but without some games to prove it, all we have is "show me"

 

[Mothra]

He had the opportunity to build on that season under the same coach within the same system in a full season. He did not.

another point that seems to be ignored.....be ready for talk of how he was removed from the PP unit by an idiot coach as cause, ignoring that the PP unit was top rate all season and his spot was filled by a younger, cheaper, player....who is locked up for several more seasons

 

[Mothra]

actually, he did not. he was skating with the puck and being offensively aggressive in the first oates season. in the second season he was told not to do those things. oates said publically that he did not want offense from green. when he was not pulling himself back to oates satisfaction he was removed from the pp.

his es strength numbers last season were better than the previous season.

you didn't hear oates over and over again??

So he did not get an opportunity? He was getting the usual workload up to a month or so into the season as I recall....and between no goals and getting injured Carlson was given a chance to fill in and IMO ran with it....somewhere in the middle of this are a couple atrocious games by 52 but given some time Carlson looked pretty serviceable back there and the PP was terrific.

I get what you are saying, Oates coached the O right out of his game, yet I saw others jump up in the play pretty regularly. As it stands this will be the 5th NHL coach for 52...he's been the player you refer to for 1 of those coaches (so far). If he is such a unique talent and top shelf player why does it take such a unique coach/situation to get that out of him?

 

[RandyHolt]

Green is so on the outs. Niskanen and Carlson are obviously our future at RD. It seems NHL SOP is to hold for the year with any chance at the playoffs, which is a virtual certainly for almost any team, so Green will likely walk next summer. It buys us time to continue developing Schmiddy Orlov and Carrick.

BMac is being bold though. Maybe there is a real trade this year. Sure Boris can talk up him as a leader, give him PP time, but it may be to pump up potential trade value throughout the year. When he has a multi goal game, pull the trigger to Detroit, and lets finally shake up the floundering core properly.

 

[txpd]

boris?

 

[Hivemind]

McGuire said it as well. So did Jones. Friedman posted someone else's opinion and apparently believed it. I am not sure what the point is. You don't believe them. Its ok.

It's not that I "don't believe them," it's that your argument is totally unconvincing and not even related here. Because Carlson drew praise from the media doesn't mean that Alzner/Carlson have been a top shutdown pairing. Especially when that praise is along the lines of "Carlson may one day contend for a Norris," and not "Carlson deserves a Norris this season." I'm not contesting Carlson's potential, but rather evaluating what we've seen from him so far. Hiding behind tangentially related media statements is not a valid argument (just ask g00n ).

There's a significant difference between top pairing and shutdown pairing, particularly on a contender. Carlzner is an adequate shutdown pair but an inadequate top pair on a contender. A strong top pair is supposed to eat 5-on-5 minutes and dominate matchups at both ends of the ice. To this point Carlzner neutralize matchups but haven't displayed the ability to take it to that next level. Alzner has limitations in being able to do that, as do Orpik and Orlov. Carlson is capable IMO but with no clear top pairing partner even with improved depth it's very much a committee approach overall. Paying that much that long for Orpik is a recipe for mediocrity but hopefully expansion will help them out with that before too long.

More or less this, but I'd think "adequate" is a stretch of their play as a shutdown pair on a top contender. The reality is that not many teams play a pairing other than their top pairing in the shutdown role. Pittsburgh and Chicago are the two playoff contenders I'm aware of that did it. Tampa also didn't really put Hedman in much of a shutdown role, but they seemed to be pretty even handed with their deployment (calling Gudas/Carle a shutdown pairing seems a stretch to me), and Montreal somtimes didn't have Subban on the shutdown pairing but they shuffled pairings a fair bit over the course of the season. Alzner/Carlson performed similarly to Pittsburgh's shutdown pairing (Orpik/Martin) but lagged significantly behind Chicago's (Oduya/Hjalmarsson). Obviously Alzner/Carlson are a fair bit short of most of pairings like McDonagh/Girardi, Bouwmeester/Pietrangelo, Seidenberg/Chara, and Muzzin/Doughty.

 

[usiel]

Green is so on the outs. Niskanen and Carlson are obviously our future at RD. It seems NHL SOP is to hold for the year with any chance at the playoffs, which is a virtual certainly for almost any team, so Green will likely walk next summer. It buys us time to continue developing Schmiddy Orlov and Carrick.

BMac is being bold though. Maybe there is a real trade this year. Sure Boris can talk up him as a leader, give him PP time, but it may be to pump up potential trade value throughout the year. When he has a multi goal game, pull the trigger to Detroit, and lets finally shake up the floundering core properly.

Bolded completely concur. Hard to imagine an likely scenario Green is traded during the season for playoff depth reasonings despite the calls for asset management "TRADE HIM AT THE DEADLINE FOR PICKS" stuff...and I love my draft picks but NO.

Maybe if there is some emergence of Orlov but hard to imagine with the long arm injury recovery this off season. Hard to imagine this happening but if Green isn't on the PP or PK at all and is the third pair RD then might think the probability of something happening increasing.

 

[Mothra]

boris?

it took me a second....but it works

 

[Raikkonen]

I said exactly what I meant to say. Keeping Green long-term denies the Capitals roster flexibility on the blueline. That's a simple fact.

Maybe they don't need that. Is 3 years long term? I think not so much.

In 3 years they can plan to do smth with Orpik's contract and... well, there is your flexibility.

Obviously they have Alzner, Carlson, Niskanen and Orlov in the very long term plans already. Right? That is almost top-4 for ages. They don't need much besides that. Add some Bowey and Schmidt types and some veteran (that could be Green or Orpik or someone else). They got all they wanted for the long stretch IMHO.

They just need Orpik to be healthy and present enough.

We do have a small window of opportunity within next and the following season maybe (2015-16 & 2016-17). Maybe a little more but then OV will become worse, probably. They should try to maximize chances within that window and then... nothing will stop them from dumping Orpik.

If Green is good to go to the war for a while... why not? Trotz should cover that estimation.

 

[Raikkonen]

Maybe if there is some emergence of Orlov but hard to imagine with the long arm injury recovery this off season.

Orlov's emergence should be more mental I think. His arm shouldn't be a big obstacle.

 

[txpd]

Bolded completely concur. Hard to imagine an likely scenario Green is traded during the season for playoff depth reasonings despite the calls for asset management "TRADE HIM AT THE DEADLINE FOR PICKS" stuff...and I love my draft picks but NO.

Maybe if there is some emergence of Orlov but hard to imagine with the long arm injury recovery this off season. Hard to imagine this happening but if Green isn't on the PP or PK at all and is the third pair RD then might think the probability of something happening increasing.

If Trotz uses Green as the primary offensive defenseman and produces, he will stay. If he is on a 3rd pair and not playing special teams at all, he will be gone before the winter classic.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

actually, he did not. he was skating with the puck and being offensively aggressive in the first oates season. in the second season he was told not to do those things. oates said publically that he did not want offense from green. when he was not pulling himself back to oates satisfaction he was removed from the pp.

his es strength numbers last season were better than the previous season.

you didn't hear oates over and over again??

The system did not change between 2013 and 2014. Green's lack of ES production in 2013 bears that out. As does actually watching the past two seasons. And Green was removed from the PP because he was injured. Yet again.

http://www.russianmachineneverbreak...-play-quarterback-mike-green-or-john-carlson/

 

[txpd]

well, then you'd think he would not be getting quality ice time this season

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

well, then you'd think he would not be getting quality ice time this season

I thought we were talking about last season and how he shat the bed instead of building on his "strong season" in 2013.

 

[txpd]

talk about what you want to.

 

[Mothra]

talk about what you want to.

In all fairness his original point was, after a productive statistical half season he failed to build on it....you chimed in saying he wasn't given the chance to build on it.

Seems like he is talking about what you want to talk about...or at least did