Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXII

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hockey is less reliant on star-power than pretty much any other sport out there. Teams win with good systems and good depth (along with goaltending, but the Capitals already have that). Washington absolutely can build a deeper team than Pittsburgh with the right offseason moves and some growth from Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, and Wilson.

So take away Crosby Malkin and Phil and replace them with Ovy, Backy and Kuzy and the Pens roster is a champion still? I'm not buying sorry.

Having those guys matters.

 

[Hivemind]

Chris Pronger was severely injured last year. Maybe they should bring him in as well? Having a Hall of Fame defenseman on the blueline would bring some instant credibility to the D corp.


(and before Ridley loses his mind, yes this is hyperbole)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

At least you're embracing the hilarity of your position now with jokes!

 

[twabby]

So take away Crosby Malkin and Phil and replace them with Ovy, Backy and Kuzy and the Pens roster is a champion still? I'm not buying sorry.

Having those guys matters.

Yes having those guys matters, I never said that they didn't. Are you trying to say that since the Capitals don't have the same number of superstars that they shouldn't try to build 3 legitimate scoring lines?

 

[txpd]

Yes having those guys matters, I never said that they didn't. Are you trying to say that since the Capitals don't have the same number of superstars that they shouldn't try to build 3 legitimate scoring lines?

based on the playoffs, the Caps had 3 scoring lines once Williams was moved to 3RW.

Dont the Caps have the same number of superstars? Wasn't one of the Caps problems that Kuznetsov didnt produce anything? you can have 3 scoring lines but they have to score

 

[MrGone]

So take away Crosby Malkin and Phil and replace them with Ovy, Backy and Kuzy and the Pens roster is a champion still? I'm not buying sorry.

Having those guys matters.

I think you are right. Pitt plugs in players that there star players make work. While I feel like we are always looking for the player needed to make our top lines work.

 

[twabby]

based on the playoffs, the Caps had 3 scoring lines once Williams was moved to 3RW.

Dont the Caps have the same number of superstars? Wasn't one of the Caps problems was the Kuznetsov didnt produce anything? you can have 3 scoring lines but they have to score

So why not mitigate the fact that one or two players could go cold by bringing in more legitimate scoring threats?

 

[third man in]

Re Orpik: Maybe he rebounds after healing fully from his broken leg. If not after this season, if he's not selected by
Vegas then trade him with 50% retained. This buying him out talk is loony.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'm on the side of the fence that the Capitals need to be all in on 2016-17. I've made that case repeatedly before. If you're still confused on that matter, I invite you to read my previous posts in this thread regarding that topic.



This sounds an awful lot like the George McPhee approach (up until the Forsberg trade, anyway). Working to build a dynasty when you haven't even won your first Cup. Hoarding all the chestnuts. Making sure every move gives good long term value.




Yes, it's the least flawed option in my opinion. My opinion is formed on the basis of evidence. Among that evidence is the fact that Orpik's cap hit is $5.5M, the fact that Orpik's metrics are poor, the fact that numerous Capitals players are on expiring contracts, the factual contracts signed by other players, and the fact that management has stated they view the Capitals to be in the second year of a two-year window.


Show me the evidence you have to support your opinion. An opinion is only worth as much as what's behind it. Just because you think it's wrong doesn't mean your opinion is correct. I have shown substantial factual evidence behind my opinion, and in areas where speculation is required, I have spelled out my logic pretty clearly (such as the case where I explain why it wouldn't make sense for an expansion franchise to select Orpik, given the amount of other leadership options available to them).


I think I've quoted CCF once in this entire thread? I've quoted g00n and txpd far more often than that. I quoted Efactor a couple pages ago. Langway mostly abstained from this debate until very recently, so there hadn't been a need to quote him on this topic (and most of his posts are level headed and factual, rather than going into rants about how my opinions are somehow wrong).

What's "annoying about your style" here is that you're more concerned with my style than the substance. So much so that you post tirades about my posting style. And then when I call you out asking for direct quotes of me doing what you accuse me of, you don't provide them (because they don't exist).


Have you missed the multi-page debates that g00n and I frequently get in? Seriously, you're going to accuse me of not debating g00n?

As mentioned, Langway takes a much more stable and factual approach than you do. Twabby is covering bases with him pretty well right now, so I don't see a need to jump in there. Further more, a lot of Langway's points on this matter correlate to ones I made pages ago (with regards to what can be done with the extra cap space), so I don't feel like moving that far backwards again.



It's an obtuse idea.... in your opinion

So not wanting to buy out Orpik means someone isnt "all in"? Lol. Ok. There are many ways to be "all in". Some smart....some not so much. I have outlined what I would like to see the team do.

Ok....so how is not wanting to waste 3% of their Cap space sound like McPhee? You are grasping.

The only evidence I have re: Not buying out Orpik is -- find me a Cup winning team that had 2.5m in dead cap space? Other than that, how exactly does one support an argument against being stupid? Multiple posters (including me) have shown why that's a dumb idea. Langway has said the exact same stuff I have, but you seem to like how he states it more than me. Whatever.

Again, to wit:
-Once the buy out is finalized, it's over. No taking it back. No chance for corrections by Orpik to matter
-finding a suitable replacement in this FA class has not been established, at all. Most scoff at replacement suggestions (Weircoch?)
-assumptions that said replacement (were they to find one) would be "better" than Orpik? How do you refute an assumption on a phantom replacement player?
-assumptions that the "saved monies" (your assumed savings, to boot), would allow the team to sign a better player -- or trade -- at 5m v 4m. No guarantees this happen, at all. How do I refute that assumption?
-Orpik's departure won't hurt the remaining D corps (and young players). As has been stated by many players, his influence has been well regarded and has changed some of the players mental approach to the game
-Orpik's replacements will be Cup level (we don't know who is replacement would be, so that's again pretty hard to refute....though it seems easy to assume that any 2m d-man on the FA market won't play top 4)
-Orpik was injured and it impacted his play. That seems pretty self explanatory?
-Las Vegas won't take Orpik. Again, your puff opinion as to why he won't. Ignoring the fact that it's very feasible.

What more are we supposed to say? You are as hard headed as someone can be on this topic, and you are arguing just on assumptions/circumstance more than merit. I'm tired and bored of repeating myself, so have the last word here, and we can move on. Your idea/charade will not be realized, and we will wait for your reasons to that down the line (or you can start your Fire McLellan bandwagon in the next few weeks).

So please, have the last word, so we can *finally* be done on this.

 

[txpd]

So why not mitigate the fact that one or two players could go cold by bringing in more legitimate scoring threats?

I expect they are going to bring in a 3c that will do that. But the part of team building that you dont want to agree with is that you dont fill out the roles on a team by filling your top 9 with 3 lines of offensive players. What the Penguins did was spread their 1st pp unit forwards over 3 lines.

Could Trotz go

Burt-Backstrom-Oshie
Johansson-Kuzy-Wilson
Ov-3C-Williams?

Sure...would that work better? Who knows. The Pens have always split Malkin and Crosby and apparantly Kessel had little chemistry with either of them. The way they did it was the only way it would work for them. The dont need another star. They player that can produce that can also provide defense and pk

If I read you right, you would roll out a defense lineup of

Orlov-Carlson
Campbell-Niskanen
Schmidt-Alzner or there abouts. You would trade off Alzner as well in exchange for a puck moving d of similary stature.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Chris Pronger was severely injured last year. Maybe they should bring him in as well? Having a Hall of Fame defenseman on the blueline would bring some instant credibility to the D corp.


(and before Ridley loses his mind, yes this is hyperbole)

I'm pretty sure the only "lost mind" here is the one hiding jokes in white font.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I check out MLB Trade Rumors from time to time to see what's going on with the Mets and Nats as far as roster moves. Just went to the site and they just introduced one for hockey http://www.prohockeyrumors.com/

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Lucic confirms he's heading to UFA....

 

[txpd]

I think you are right. Pitt plugs in players that there star players make work. While I feel like we are always looking for the player needed to make our top lines work.

Wasnt the idea of getting Kessel to get Crosby a finisher that could use Crosby's high end playmaking skills? Didnt they get him specifically to make their top line work?
It didnt work, but that was why they got him.

They surely didnt get him to stick him on a 3rd line with a Nick Bonino like player.
Meanwhile, which of Oshie and Williams was acquired to make the top line work? Was it both and the loser got demoted?

 

[twabby]

I expect they are going to bring in a 3c that will do that. But the part of team building that you dont want to agree with is that you dont fill out the roles on a team by filling your top 9 with 3 lines of offensive players. What the Penguins did was spread their 1st pp unit forwards over 3 lines.

Could Trotz go

Burt-Backstrom-Oshie
Johansson-Kuzy-Wilson
Ov-3C-Williams?

Sure...would that work better? Who knows. The Pens have always split Malkin and Crosby and apparantly Kessel had little chemistry with either of them. The way they did it was the only way it would work for them. The dont need another star. They player that can produce that can also provide defense and pk

If I read you right, you would roll out a defense lineup of

Orlov-Carlson
Campbell-Niskanen
Schmidt-Alzner or there abouts. You would trade off Alzner as well in exchange for a puck moving d of similary stature.

I think they could go something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Burakovsky
Johansson/New LW-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/New LW-New 3C-Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson

If they get a new RW instead, then I'd keep Burakovsky at LW:
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/Burakovsky-Backstrom-New RW/Williams
Johansson/Burakovsky-New 3C-New RW/Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson


This is absolutely 3 legitimate scoring lines provided they don't go with dumpster diving options for the 3C and 2/3W. Obviously the exact chemistry would need to be found so the lines above are just an idea. But the more good players you have, the better your roster flexibility is.


D:
Alzner-Carlson
Orlov-Niskanen
Schmidt and a new 3rd pairing D (Wiercioch, Ehrhoff, etc.)

I'm not thinking about trading Alzner, but I'd like to see him with the team's best offensive RD instead of Niskanen because he is best able to cover for Carlson pinching. I'd like to see Orlov with the team's best defensive RD in Niskanen for the same reason. If you need offense late in the game, put Orlov and Carlson together. If you absolutely need to defend a 1 goal lead late in the game with the opposing goalie pulled, put Niskanen and Alzner out there.

The third pairing is a little bit rough, but what third pairing in the league isn't? The Sharks had Roman Polak and Brendan Dillon, while the Penguins had Ian Cole and Ben Lovejoy/Justin Schultz. Same story with the Lightning and the Blues with their third pairings.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes having those guys matters, I never said that they didn't. Are you trying to say that since the Capitals don't have the same number of superstars that they shouldn't try to build 3 legitimate scoring lines?

You tried to minimize them by saying in the NHL, stars don't matter as much. I say BS. It's a team sport, it doesn't automatically prevent the best players from playing like it.

I believe they should build the best team they can. I don't believe it should be done with foolish financial transactions that likely have no impact in furthering the success of the team.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think they could go something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Burakovsky
Johansson/New LW-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/New LW-New 3C-Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson

If they get a new RW instead, then I'd keep Burakovsky at LW:
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/Burakovsky-Backstrom-New RW/Williams
Johansson/Burakovsky-New 3C-New RW/Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson

D:
Alzner-Carlson
Orlov-Niskanen
Schmidt and a new 3rd pairing D (Wiercioch, Ehrhoff, etc.)

That's a giant amount of gambling, question marks, and praying if that's your Cup winning lineup.

New Leftwing, New 3C, and middling UFA D better be some heroic signings...

 

[txpd]

I think they could go something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Burakovsky
Johansson/New LW-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/New LW-New 3C-Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson

If they get a new RW instead, then I'd keep Burakovsky at LW:
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson/Burakovsky-Backstrom-New RW/Williams
Johansson/Burakovsky-New 3C-New RW/Williams
Stephenson/Walker/Whoever from the AHL-Beagle-Wilson


This is absolutely 3 legitimate scoring lines provided they don't go with dumpster diving options for the 3C and 2/3W. Obviously the exact chemistry would need to be found so the lines above are just an idea. But the more good players you have, the better your roster flexibility is.


D:
Alzner-Carlson
Orlov-Niskanen
Schmidt and a new 3rd pairing D (Wiercioch, Ehrhoff, etc.)

I'm not thinking about trading Alzner, but I'd like to see him with the team's best offensive RD instead of Niskanen because he is best able to cover for Carlson pinching. I'd like to see Orlov with the team's best defensive RD in Niskanen for the same reason. If you need offense late in the game, put Orlov and Carlson together. If you absolutely need to defend a 1 goal lead late in the game with the opposing goalie pulled, put Niskanen and Alzner out there.

The third pairing is a little bit rough, but what third pairing in the league isn't? The Sharks had Roman Polak and Brendan Dillon, while the Penguins had Ian Cole and Ben Lovejoy/Justin Schultz. Same story with the Lightning and the Blues with their third pairings.

ok bud. you know they are not going to pencil Wilson onto the 4th line. it almost sounds like you would scratch the guy. maybe i read that wrong, but he is not going to be replaced by an offseason add that buries him on the 4th.

and...jesus, ehrhoff sucks, buddy. your orpik hate/orlov love complex is out of hand if you really want to see orpik out and ehrhoff in.

Edit: Late in games with a 1 goal lead and Alzner and Niskanen together, who skates the next shift? who are your 4 pk defense? Who is on the pk when alzner takes a penalty? yea, that 3rd pair is beyond rough. you dont win cups with that kind of depth

 

[hockeykicker]

New expansion rules

 

[Ridley Simon]

New expansion rules

So 60% of the Cap. Let's say Cap is 75m. That means Vegas must have a min salary of 45m, post expansion draft (so before UFA on 7/1?).

Due to the way the rules break, there will be some ugly contracts sitting there for Vegas to pick. Orpik being one of them.

They will need to take an ugly contract or 2, to hit that 45m (or so) mark. I'm sure they will look for shorter deals....so Orpik's remaining 2 years will be "ok" in that regard. They can buy out those contracts, but not until after 1st year completed. That seems to make a 2yr contract viable (more so than 3+ years)

 

[Langway]

Wilson did have the very worst possession numbers on the team. Locking him into a top nine role is not really ideal, as much as they may want him to stick there. I'm for experimenting in the regular season and really developing what's at hand but ultimately Wilson will have to earn a top nine spot. Given where they are in trying to win they're going to at least need a 3C and also more competition to insure that Latta and Galiev aren't assured depth spots. We know what they have to offer and it isn't much. To strengthen their depth and Hershey's, those two need to be put in a position where they have to beat players flat out.

It says the prior season's cap so they'll need to add at least $43.8M. But that's spread out over all 30 selections, presumably with QO figures included for RFAs, so it's not that terribly high a threshold. 20 players needing to be under contract helps a bit I suppose.

‏@reporterchris: The NHL expects to open a window where the Las Vegas team can make trades/transactions before expansion draft. That's never happened before.

 

[Hivemind]

So not wanting to buy out Orpik means someone isnt "all in"? Lol. Ok. There are many ways to be "all in". Some smart....some not so much. I have outlined what I would like to see the team do.

You're getting hung up on the words "all in" rather than the actual content here. I've outlined why their window is in 2016-17, and why I think emphasis needs to be placed on that season above the seasons that follow (in terms of making moves for Cup results). If you're still unsure why I reached those conclusions, I suggest re-reading my posts over the past several pages.

Ok....so how is not wanting to waste 3% of their Cap space sound like McPhee? You are grasping.

Talking about multiple cup windows (plural) and prioritizing the long view are all similar to McPhee's management strategy until his final 2 years. McPhee was always playing the long game, and was largely unwilling to risk the future of the team to improve the current product (beyond smaller window dressing trades).

As for "wasting 3%" of their cap space, they're currently wasting 7.5% of their cap space on Brooks Orpik's contract. If the cap continues to slowly climb, the $3M (and later $1.5M) cap penalty will be of less significance.

The only evidence I have re: Not buying out Orpik is -- find me a Cup winning team that had 2.5m in dead cap space? Other than that, how exactly does one support an argument against being stupid? Multiple posters (including me) have shown why that's a dumb idea. Langway has said the exact same stuff I have, but you seem to like how he states it more than me. Whatever.

See, you keep accusing me of stating my opinions as fact, but all you've done is repeat "IT'S STUPID" over and over again as if that was some sort of conclusive argument.

As for your evidence, here you go:
Chicago 2012-13 winning with $2.946M in unused cap space
Pittsburgh 2008-09 winning with $7.715M in unused cap space
Detroit 2007-08 winning with $4.254M in unused cap space

Again, to wit:
-Once the buy out is finalized, it's over. No taking it back. No chance for corrections by Orpik to matter

Once a season is complete, it's finalized, it's over. No taking it back. No chance for corrections to give you another shot at the 2016-17 Stanley Cup.

I'd rather head into next season with the best roster possible. IMO, that means ditching Orpik.

-finding a suitable replacement in this FA class has not been established, at all. Most scoff at replacement suggestions (Weircoch?)

There's plenty of 3rd pairing options available. There are different routes that can be explored. If the team heavily values replacing Orpik's veteran leadership, Willie Mitchell is an option that should be substantially cheaper than his $4.25M price tag from last year. If they want to get more mobile on the back end, David Schlemko could be an option. If they value size above all else, Weircoch could indeed be a possibility. If they want toughness, Eric Gryba is out there. I don't like all of these options, but I'm simply pointing out that there's plenty of depth defensemen out there to fill in on a budget.

I scoff at paying Orpik $5.5M

-assumptions that said replacement (were they to find one) would be "better" than Orpik? How do you refute an assumption on a phantom replacement player?

I never stated Orpik's replacement is guaranteed to be better than Orpik. In fact, I've had posts that state quite the opposite (see my exchange will AlexBrovechkin a couple pages back, regarding my view that the #4D position is a question mark with or without Orpik). While it's certainly possible (and hopeful) the replacement is an improvement on Orpik, the goal of buying out Orpik isn't to improve on Orpik, it's to improve the team as a whole. The additional cap space will aid in filling holes on the forward roster.

-assumptions that the "saved monies" (your assumed savings, to boot), would allow the team to sign a better player -- or trade -- at 5m v 4m. No guarantees this happen, at all. How do I refute that assumption?

Are you seriously suggesting that additional cap space would make it harder to sign better players? It should be painfully obvious that having more money to spend on forwards will make it easier to fill holes at forward.

-Orpik's departure won't hurt the remaining D corps (and young players). As has been stated by many players, his influence has been well regarded and has changed some of the players mental approach to the game

Pittsburgh seems to have survived losing Orpik. He's hardly the only leader out there in hockey.

-Orpik's replacements will be Cup level (we don't know who is replacement would be, so that's again pretty hard to refute....though it seems easy to assume that any 2m d-man on the FA market won't play top 4)

This is basically the same thing you listed two bullets ago. See my response there, as well as the exchange with Brovechkin I mentioned.

-Orpik was injured and it impacted his play. That seems pretty self explanatory?

I'm still confused to how people view this as a positive feature going forwards for a 36 year old player

-Las Vegas won't take Orpik. Again, your puff opinion as to why he won't. Ignoring the fact that it's very feasible.

So Vegas taking Orpik being feasible is "fact" while my reasoned out positions with supporting evidence are "puff opinions." And I'm the one who presents my opinions as fact?

What more are we supposed to say? You are as hard headed as someone can be on this topic, and you are arguing just on assumptions/circumstance more than merit. I'm tired and bored of repeating myself, so have the last word here, and we can move on. Your idea/charade will not be realized, and we will wait for your reasons to that down the line (or you can start your Fire McLellan bandwagon in the next few weeks).

So please, have the last word, so we can *finally* be done on this.

This is what, your third or fourth "goodbye" in this debate? If you're actually bored of this discussion, stop responding.

 

[twabby]

That's a giant amount of gambling, question marks, and praying if that's your Cup winning lineup.

New Leftwing, New 3C, and middling UFA D better be some heroic signings...

What do you propose?

ok bud. you know they are not going to pencil Wilson onto the 4th line. it almost sounds like you would scratch the guy. maybe i read that wrong, but he is not going to be replaced by an offseason add that buries him on the 4th.

and...jesus, ehrhoff sucks, buddy. your orpik hate/orlov love complex is out of hand if you really want to see orpik out and ehrhoff in.

Edit: Late in games with a 1 goal lead and Alzner and Niskanen together, who skates the next shift? who are your 4 pk defense? Who is on the pk when alzner takes a penalty? yea, that 3rd pair is beyond rough. you dont win cups with that kind of depth

Carlson and Orpik were out for extended periods of time this season and somehow they managed to kill penalties and play defense. And seeing as Wilson was a "9th, 10th" forward last year and MacLellan specifically said he was looking to upgrade that position in the offseason, how can you be so sure he'll start on the 3rd line?

 

[SpinningEdge]

If Caps can re-sign their players, then is everyone on board with them basically protecting these players? ANyone disagree on some of them?

3 D:
Carlson
Alzner
Niskanen

F:
Ovi
Backstrom
Kuzy
Burro
Oshie
Johansson
Wilson

G:
Holtby

Due to Las Vegas only being allowed to take one player I think this is the route to go. You want to keep the players with the most trade value IMO. You don't want to give them up for nothing. I actually believe Beagle is more valuable than Johansson - but in terms of a player leaving the Caps - I think Johansson brings more value than Beagle, so letting Beagle walk isn't the worst thing.

Orpik would be great to go - but it isn't going to happen. LV is going to be able to pick from 90 starters in the NHL on defense - and a lot of them will be top 4 quality. They're not going to take on a bad contract.

Orlov is a possibility too - but we'll see.

Schmidt I wouldn't mind losing at all. I don't think he's a NHL type player built for the playoffs. I think when things get more tough, more physical, and more wore down, he faulters.

 

[hockeykicker]

If Caps can re-sign their players, then is everyone on board with them basically protecting these players? ANyone disagree on some of them?

3 D:
Carlson
Alzner
Niskanen

F:
Ovi
Backstrom
Kuzy
Burro
Oshie
Johansson
Wilson

G:
Holtby

Due to Las Vegas only being allowed to take one player I think this is the route to go. You want to keep the players with the most trade value IMO. You don't want to give them up for nothing. I actually believe Beagle is more valuable than Johansson - but in terms of a player leaving the Caps - I think Johansson brings more value than Beagle, so letting Beagle walk isn't the worst thing.

Orpik would be great to go - but it isn't going to happen. LV is going to be able to pick from 90 starters in the NHL on defense - and a lot of them will be top 4 quality. They're not going to take on a bad contract.

Orlov is a possibility too - but we'll see.

Schmidt I wouldn't mind losing at all. I don't think he's a NHL type player built for the playoffs. I think when things get more tough, more physical, and more wore down, he faulters.

what about williams?