Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXII

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twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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Even for $2M, which is far from certain, you're only saving $1M in the process. Have you seen the type of UFA defenseman for that type of money? Clayton Stoner makes $3.25M. Adam McQuaid makes $2.75M. Kevan Miller makes $2.5M. You'd really sign Wiercioch to a three-year contract? Who else do you get for that money? Matt Bartkowski?

You act like an equal replacement on the cheap is easy when it's just not the case. Even if you were to find a third pair D that does the same things there is utility in retaining Orpik due to his ability to play higher in the lineup given uncertainty with 88/9. If 88/9 were better or they had more internal competition it would be one thing. But what you're suggesting has many more obstacles than you let on, to say nothing of just being erratically quick on the trigger. They've committed to him, for better or worse. It's going to take more to force something to happen there.

You (and many others here) and I disagree on how good Orpik is. I happen to think that someone like Barret Jackman, Kevan Miller, etc. are functionally equivalent to Orpik: limited to no offensive ability, able to kill penalties and block a few shots, not very good possession stats. And I also happen to think someone like Wiercioch could be highly undervalued because Ottawa's GM and coaching staff are idiots. I wouldn't sign him to a 3 year deal, but as I mentioned in my previous post it becomes easier and easier to replace Orpik's production as he ages so signing a different FA each offseason, if it came to it, would be a better option than hanging on to Orpik.

Orpik's ability to play higher in the lineup isn't unique, not even on the Capitals roster. Nate Schmidt played perfectly fine alongside Carlson for an extended stretch this season. Schmidt and Orlov looked downright good as a second pair for extended stretches this season. How is this any different than Orpik's ability to play up in the lineup? And you speak of Schmidt's and Orlov's uncertainty: what about Orpik's uncertainty?! Not only uncertainty regarding quality of play (he makes plenty of huge mistakes too), but uncertainty regarding age and injury history.

My whole reasoning for buying out Orpik is based on the idea that he can be replaced by someone for far less than $3.0M. If you disagree with this premise, then of course you won't like the idea of a buy out.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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The difference between Eriksson & Nielsen is more like a Purcell, Perron or maybe Hudler than Grabner or Parenteau. Neither Grabner nor Parenteau should get more than $2M in UFA. If they do it's not advisable. Whereas the floor with Eriksson & Nielsen is probably $5M, with Eriksson perhaps getting as much as $6.5M if there's less term. If they only need $1.5M then trade Winnik to whoever for anything marginal. Simple and not burdensome.

There is more than a zero percent chance that Orpik rehabs his game and gets snagged in the expansion draft. A lot has to go right between the player and LV's management make-up but it's possible. That mere possibility helps them be patient for the time being. Unless they've had a management revelation IRT puck movement and possession he's not going anywhere.

Ehrhoff and Wiercioch aren't top 4 defensemen and aren't what they need. If they go for $1M it goes to show how little demand there is for their services. Those aren't solutions. Sure, while 88/9 have been fine #4's in the regular season they've also played like children when it really matters. That can't be overlooked in paying a premium to subtract experience regardless of how you may want to discount it entirely. If there was a Jackman out there willing to sign for $2M that's one thing...but that guy's not out there. And, again, you don't achieve the same opened up cap space (or more) by subtracting a 4LW that's even less important.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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So your magical Cup winning D Corp is:

Alzner-Nisky
Orlov-Carlson
Jackman/Ehrhoff/Weircioch-Schmidt/Chorney?

Are we being punked? The Caps already burned Ovy's prime years. No reason to spin tales of fear and make more poor decisions like a buyout today.

You devalue Orpik so you think he can be replaced with average/cheap parts and incorrectly assume you'll get the same output. The logic is greatly flawed.
 
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RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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Nisky at 5.75M, I am very happy with the defensive side of his game. I was expecting to see more offense. It seems like he struggles to get shots on goal, but did improve a lot this past season. 16 ESP is meh. Alzner had 21. Perhaps, our true bargain.

Do his advanced stats support that Nisky is a bargain? Or, is he one of those "the stats don't tell the tale" guys, like Orpik.

I suppose being durable and playing disciplined is worth something in the buyout bargain calculator.
 

Raikkonen

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Aug 19, 2009
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There should be free agents willing to play 1 year for Caps and then getting to expanded fa market (hoping for good stats @Caps). Stopgap middle six player.
 

Efactor

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If we have to trade Mojo, we should do it for a less established player with more offensive upside. Maybe Nylander? TO will have Kadri, Matthews, and Bozak, so Nylander for a more mature three zone player may make sense. Nylander starts as our 3C to give the line a little more offense.

Fair?
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,267
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Yeah, not very realistic, at least when it comes Nylander. Maybe a dinged higher upside prospect like a Shinkaruk type plus a pick but Shinkaruk is probably no better than Vrana. A better target would be someone like Haula or Zucker from the Wild: a cheaper winger that's more truly an energy type player that could perhaps become a staple on the third line for a while at stronger value. (Or Hansen from VAN.) Typically you think of Johansson as outproducing those guys but 90 only had a couple more 5-on-5 points last year compared to Haula. Hansen had more in fewer games.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
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There should be free agents willing to play 1 year for Caps and then getting to expanded fa market (hoping for good stats @Caps). Stopgap middle six player.

No quality players are going to roll those dice IMO. Only a guys like a Richards, who could see a nice bounce back if he manages to work himself into a scoring role.....those class of players are in the desperate column IMO. Are there any upgrades that fit that bill available AS UFA's?
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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The difference between Eriksson & Nielsen is more like a Purcell, Perron or maybe Hudler than Grabner or Parenteau. Neither Grabner nor Parenteau should get more than $2M in UFA. If they do it's not advisable. Whereas the floor with Eriksson & Nielsen is probably $5M, with Eriksson perhaps getting as much as $6.5M if there's less term. If they only need $1.5M then trade Winnik to whoever for anything marginal. Simple and not burdensome.

There is more than a zero percent chance that Orpik rehabs his game and gets snagged in the expansion draft. A lot has to go right between the player and LV's management make-up but it's possible. That mere possibility helps them be patient for the time being. Unless they've had a management revelation IRT puck movement and possession he's not going anywhere.

Ehrhoff and Wiercioch aren't top 4 defensemen and aren't what they need. If they go for $1M it goes to show how little demand there is for their services. Those aren't solutions. Sure, while 88/9 have been fine #4's in the regular season they've also played like children when it really matters. That can't be overlooked in paying a premium to subtract experience regardless of how you may want to discount it entirely. If there was a Jackman out there willing to sign for $2M that's one thing...but that guy's not out there. And, again, you don't achieve the same opened up cap space (or more) by subtracting a 4LW that's even less important.

You're probably right about the difference being between Nielsen and Purcell, but even then that is a huge difference! I've already advocated trading Winnik as the first priority so I'm with you there. I think most people here agree with that sentiment so there wasn't a need to defend my position, which is why I moved on to Orpik.

I also agree, there is a non-zero chance that Orpik is taken in the expansion draft. But that number is far closer to zero than it is to 100, or even 50 IMO. The Capitals will have to expose a younger, better player and LV will be able to get an experienced vet elsewhere, either in the draft or via free agency. It's not nearly enough of a chance for me to want to ride it out for another year.

Orpik is not a top 4 defenseman any more IMO. Just as 88/9 played poorly in the postseason, so did Orpik. He made just as many boneheaded plays with the puck, but in addition he took a terrible suspension and a careless double minor penalty that helped the Caps lose Game 6.

And if we are falling back to Orpik's 2014-15 playoffs as proof that he is still good, why aren't people using that same logic when deciding what they would do with Jason Chimera? He's been productive in the playoffs (except this year).

So your magical Cup winning D Corp is:

Alzner-Nisky
Orlov-Carlson
Jackman/Ehrhoff/Weircioch-Schmidt/Chorney?

Are we being punked? The Caps already burned Ovy's prime years. No reason to spin tales of fear and make more poor decisions like a buyout today.

You devalue Orpik so you think he can be replaced with average/cheap parts and incorrectly assume you'll get the same output. The logic is greatly flawed.

Remind me again who was on Pittsburgh's blue line? Absolutely that blue line can win a Cup, provided the forwards are improved.
 

Carlzner

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Oct 31, 2011
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I wonder if there's any deal to be made around Cam Fowler. Something like Mojo + Orlov +

No idea what Anaheim is looking for but his name keeps coming up in trade rumors and I keep having this feeling that GMBM is targeting another PMD. More specifically a LHD actually. I think he wants Orpik bumped down to the 3rd pairing based on some of his comments earlier in the offseason.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
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You're probably right about the difference being between Nielsen and Purcell, but even then that is a huge difference! I've already advocated trading Winnik as the first priority so I'm with you there. I think most people here agree with that sentiment so there wasn't a need to defend my position, which is why I moved on to Orpik.

I also agree, there is a non-zero chance that Orpik is taken in the expansion draft. But that number is far closer to zero than it is to 100, or even 50 IMO. The Capitals will have to expose a younger, better player and LV will be able to get an experienced vet elsewhere, either in the draft or via free agency. It's not nearly enough of a chance for me to want to ride it out for another year.

Orpik is not a top 4 defenseman any more IMO. Just as 88/9 played poorly in the postseason, so did Orpik. He made just as many boneheaded plays with the puck, but in addition he took a terrible suspension and a careless double minor penalty that helped the Caps lose Game 6.

And if we are falling back to Orpik's 2014-15 playoffs as proof that he is still good, why aren't people using that same logic when deciding what they would do with Jason Chimera? He's been productive in the playoffs (except this year).



Remind me again who was on Pittsburgh's blue line? Absolutely that blue line can win a Cup, provided the forwards are improved.

Reminder that they have two world class superstars plus a pretty decent 3rd line winger who help overcome a lot. we don't have those gems, we've got one. They're a superstar player up on every team in the league. Can't look at their team and expect to win the same way when we don't have their star power.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
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I wonder if there's any deal to be made around Cam Fowler. Something like Mojo + Orlov +

No idea what Anaheim is looking for but his name keeps coming up in trade rumors and I keep having this feeling that GMBM is targeting another PMD. More specifically a LHD actually. I think he wants Orpik bumped down to the 3rd pairing based on some of his comments earlier in the offseason.

I feel like any roster player trades have to work out even. Caps aren't likely to be looking to make more holes IMO.

Mojo + for player X plus


Mojo + roster player for two rosters players returning.
 

Carlzner

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I feel like any roster player trades have to work out even. Caps aren't likely to be looking to make more holes IMO.

Mojo + for player X plus


Mojo + roster player for two rosters players returning.

Fowler's salary is 4M so it would open up 2-3mil more to sign a free agent to help the top 9.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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Fowler's salary is 4M so it would open up 2-3mil more to sign a free agent to help the top 9.

I would think the preference in moving Mojo would be cost controlled roster players over UFAs at premium pricing.

They can afford one top end guy like Nielsen. A second is a premium I'm not sure they want to pay this offseason.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Considering that Hivemind's very argument is "look what the Caps could do, today, with 1.5m in extra cap space!".....it's hard to understand which side of the fence you guys are on.

Does 1.5 matter.....or not? The Capitals have done a really good job in growing some awesome young talent on offense, have a young G, and a mostly young D. While we all realize that ONE of their first Windows to the Cup was 15-17, it really shouldn't be the only one.

I'm on the side of the fence that the Capitals need to be all in on 2016-17. I've made that case repeatedly before. If you're still confused on that matter, I invite you to read my previous posts in this thread regarding that topic.

I read an article about how Yzerman won his first Cup at 32 (Ovy will be 32 next season), and years of failures....and then went on to win 2 more (3 altogether).

Point being, things happen in sports, so while you need a short view of the team, you also HAVE to take a long view. For a team that seems to have a good 6-8 years of being relevant to the Cup discussions, having a penalty for 6 of those is (again) foolish.

This sounds an awful lot like the George McPhee approach (up until the Forsberg trade, anyway). Working to build a dynasty when you haven't even won your first Cup. Hoarding all the chestnuts. Making sure every move gives good long term value.

You and your "facts and evidence"....lol. The only real discussion here is whether an Orpik Buy Out makes sense, this summer.

It's not an evidence question. It's an opinion question. You are throwing players salaries, fancy stats, and such as "facts and evidence" to bolster Your Opinion. How can you not understand that? There is no "evidence" that shows you can get a 2m replacements for Orpik, now. As Langway and others have shown, the fallacy that it will be somehow "easy" to just plug in a replacement that helps the team is not being addressed by you.
Buyout is the least flawed idea in your opinion, right? It's not one of those facts supported by evidence? Because very good cases can and have been made for other options, and some good cases have been made against buyout.

Yes, it's the least flawed option in my opinion. My opinion is formed on the basis of evidence. Among that evidence is the fact that Orpik's cap hit is $5.5M, the fact that Orpik's metrics are poor, the fact that numerous Capitals players are on expiring contracts, the factual contracts signed by other players, and the fact that management has stated they view the Capitals to be in the second year of a two-year window.

Almost all on here think your opinion on this matter is wrong. Flat out.
Show me the evidence you have to support your opinion. An opinion is only worth as much as what's behind it. Just because you think it's wrong doesn't mean your opinion is correct. I have shown substantial factual evidence behind my opinion, and in areas where speculation is required, I have spelled out my logic pretty clearly (such as the case where I explain why it wouldn't make sense for an expansion franchise to select Orpik, given the amount of other leadership options available to them).

What's annoying about your style here, is that 6-7 posters are telling you how wrong you are, yet you ignore them and seem to want to harp on me and CCF.
I think I've quoted CCF once in this entire thread? I've quoted g00n and txpd far more often than that. I quoted Efactor a couple pages ago. Langway mostly abstained from this debate until very recently, so there hadn't been a need to quote him on this topic (and most of his posts are level headed and factual, rather than going into rants about how my opinions are somehow wrong).

What's "annoying about your style" here is that you're more concerned with my style than the substance. So much so that you post tirades about my posting style. And then when I call you out asking for direct quotes of me doing what you accuse me of, you don't provide them (because they don't exist).

Look at g00n's and Langways arguments, which are almost exactly what I have been saying this entire time (perhaps not so eloquently, but same premises). You won't refute them.
Have you missed the multi-page debates that g00n and I frequently get in? Seriously, you're going to accuse me of not debating g00n? :laugh:

As mentioned, Langway takes a much more stable and factual approach than you do. Twabby is covering bases with him pretty well right now, so I don't see a need to jump in there. Further more, a lot of Langway's points on this matter correlate to ones I made pages ago (with regards to what can be done with the extra cap space), so I don't feel like moving that far backwards again.

And of course you admit that GMBM won't exercise an Orpik Buy Out. Why? Because he wants to spite poster Hivemind on HF Boards? NO?..he won't because it's an obtuse idea. Period.

It's an obtuse idea.... in your opinion ;);););)
 

Efactor

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Dec 10, 2002
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I think you guys are undervaluing Mojo. His production was .62 ppg. Oshie is only .64 ppg. Mojo has hardly missed a game since he's been in the league. He is defensively responsible. He can play on the first PP. He can kill penalties and play up and down the lineup. He has good wheels and is only 25.

We should either resign him (and it'll cost $5M+) or demand value back in a trade. I don't think asking for a top-tier prospect is out of line.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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Nisky at 5.75M, I am very happy with the defensive side of his game. I was expecting to see more offense. It seems like he struggles to get shots on goal, but did improve a lot this past season. 16 ESP is meh. Alzner had 21. Perhaps, our true bargain.

Do his advanced stats support that Nisky is a bargain? Or, is he one of those "the stats don't tell the tale" guys, like Orpik.

I suppose being durable and playing disciplined is worth something in the buyout bargain calculator.

how much did detroit sign mike green for? $6m? He played 16:45 average toi in the playoffs for the wings. Niskanen played 26:23 and lead the team in es toi in the playoffs. He has lead the team in average toi in both of his regular seasons and one of the playoffs. he was only 2nd on the team this time by less then 0:30.

the caps have a minutes leader who has played all the games since he signed, i think, as well. are we really complaining about him?

ESP playoffs. Carlson had 4. Niskanen had 3. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie and Williams were the only other Caps to have as many or more ESP in the playoffs than Niskanen. Sorry, Boss. Meh, is a pant load.

Oh, and for a smallish puck moving d has delivered 2 or 3 of the team's top 10 hits of the past two seasons combined.
 
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txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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I think you guys are undervaluing Mojo. His production was .62 ppg. Oshie is only .64 ppg. Mojo has hardly missed a game since he's been in the league. He is defensively responsible. He can play on the first PP. He can kill penalties and play up and down the lineup. He has good wheels and is only 25.

We should either resign him (and it'll cost $5M+) or demand value back in a trade. I don't think asking for a top-tier prospect is out of line.

I think sometimes that quantifying Johansson is difficult. I think that Kuzy's best period this past season was with Johansson on his line. Those signature shifts where Kuzy lapped the offensive zone after tiring out the oppo. Johansson had possession of the puck for nearly half of those shifts.

On pp1 his role is the least obvious but the team appears to have much more zone time with him on the unit than on the occasions that Kuznetsov got a shot at it.

The 3rd line's best stretch was when he was on it.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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This sounds an awful lot like the George McPhee approach (up until the Forsberg trade, anyway). Working to build a dynasty when you haven't even won your first Cup. Hoarding all the chestnuts. Making sure every move gives good long term value.

Yes, it's the least flawed option in my opinion. My opinion is formed on the basis of evidence. Among that evidence is the fact that Orpik's cap hit is $5.5M, the fact that Orpik's metrics are poor, the fact that numerous Capitals players are on expiring contracts, the factual contracts signed by other players, and the fact that management has stated they view the Capitals to be in the second year of a two-year window.

Show me the evidence you have to support your opinion. An opinion is only worth as much as what's behind it. Just because you think it's wrong doesn't mean your opinion is correct. I have shown substantial factual evidence behind my opinion, and in areas where speculation is required, I have spelled out my logic pretty clearly (such as the case where I explain why it wouldn't make sense for an expansion franchise to select Orpik, given the amount of other leadership options.

It's an obtuse idea.... in your opinion ;);););)

Like it or not the Capitals are a business first and foremost. Good established businesses don't often risk it all for a CHANCE to succeed at the highest levels. You want them to go all in, futures be damned. It's an irresponsible and emotional strategy, one I doubt a level headed owner would support. There's no magical formula to risk it all on.

You opinion is formed on flawed analysis of said "evidence". As Langway mentioned, you're likely at best treading water while taking a long term cap penalty. There's no logical business strategy to a buyout now.

If you could guarantee a stud 3/4 D coming back in a buyout I'm in, I just don't see it.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
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Props to the pro scouts (and Todd Rierden?) for IDing that Niskanen still had upwards potential that was likely to be actualized. There were plenty of people (both Caps fans and non) who felt that 7x$5.75M was an overpayment for Niskanen at the time. While the term may still end up being an issue closer to the end of the contract, so far he has more or less justified his cap hit. There was significant concern at the time the contract was signed, based on the fact he was only a couple years removed from being a throw in from Dallas and had basically one good offensive season during a contract year (on the backs of powerplay time as a result of injuries to Latang). While the offensive numbers are still a minor concern, Niskanen has shown that his defensive growth is legitimate.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Like it or not the Capitals are a business first and foremost. Good established businesses don't often risk it all for a CHANCE to succeed at the highest levels. You want them to go all in, futures be damned. It's an irresponsible and emotional strategy, one I doubt a level headed owner would support. There's no magical formula to risk it all on.

You opinion is formed on flawed analysis of said "evidence". As Langway mentioned, you're likely at best treading water while taking a long term cap penalty. There's no logical business strategy to a buyout now.

All of this same logic can be applied to signing Orpik in the first place. You're asking them to double down on that mistake. Unfortunately hockey isn't like poker. Just because you already have money in the pot doesn't mean you can bluff your way to your opponent folding. The Capitals made a bet on Orpik, but now another card has been played and it's shown it wasn't a good bet. I'm saying the Capitals need to cut bait and fold on Orpik. It was a bad bet, and it burned them. No need to let it cripple three more teams to the tune of a $5.5M cap hit.


*apologies for switching gambling metaphors halfway through
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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Reminder that they have two world class superstars plus a pretty decent 3rd line winger who help overcome a lot. we don't have those gems, we've got one. They're a superstar player up on every team in the league. Can't look at their team and expect to win the same way when we don't have their star power.

Hockey is less reliant on star-power than pretty much any other sport out there. Teams win with good systems and good depth (along with goaltending, but the Capitals already have that). Washington absolutely can build a deeper team than Pittsburgh with the right offseason moves and some growth from Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, and Wilson.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
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All of this same logic can be applied to signing Orpik in the first place. You're asking them to double down on that mistake. Unfortunately hockey isn't like poker. Just because you already have money in the pot doesn't mean you can bluff your way to your opponent folding. The Capitals made a bet on Orpik, but now another card has been played and it's shown it wasn't a good bet. I'm saying the Capitals need to cut bait and fold on Orpik. It was a bad bet, and it burned them. No need to let it cripple three more teams to the tune of a $5.5M cap hit.


*apologies for switching gambling metaphors halfway through

He brought immediate credibility to the D Corp and upgrade in team D play his first year and was severely injured last. Irrefutable. There was limited risk in assuming that instant bump.

Everyone knew the last 3 years were risky, but that's the price they paid for an instant upgrade. Everyone just isn't obsessing over it....yet.
 
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