3 Goal differentials in the last 73 games to open your eyes

[Ogrezilla]

Now on top of that through the first 24 games this year the Pens have actually scored more goals than in the last 24 games of 2017, 83 versus 64. That is contrary to what the club is trying to do by adding even more scoring to overcome the shoddy defense. So if the coach were to focus on his defence by allotting ice time to the better plus minus players the Pens may just have the same result as last year which every body would be near happy with.

so you are saying if we played Letang less, we'd be winning significantly more games to be where we were last year?

 

[larueskee]

I am saying that the last 24 games of last year ( without Letang ) the Pens gave up far less goals. The first 24 games this year the Pens scored far more goals with Letang but he negates the gain with bad 5 on 5 play. Now I would just advocate for the coach to experiment with sitting Letang for a couple of tough games and see what happens. That plus minus ( currently minus 13 ) deserves further examination as does his goals scored and powerplay points. I suspect that Letang gets some points in non crucial spots due to all the ice he gets ( like in a 7-0 game ) so a deeper dice into his individual stats should have been done by somebody other than me at this point. With that said just comparing the last 24 games in two different seasons has explained a lot and provided me with a course of action. That course of action needs to be addressed by the coach though and not some interne forum poster.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I am saying that the last 24 games of last year ( without Letang ) the Pens gave up far less goals. The first 24 games this year the Pens scored far more goals with Letang but he negates the gain with bad 5 on 5 play. Now I would just advocate for the coach to experiment with sitting Letang for a couple of tough games and see what happens. That plus minus ( currently minus 13 ) deserves further examination as does his goals scored and powerplay points. I suspect that Letang gets some points in non crucial spots due to all the ice he gets ( like in a 7-0 game ) so a deeper dice into his individual stats should have been done by somebody other than me at this point. With that said just comparing the last 24 games in two different seasons has explained a lot and provided me with a course of action. That course of action needs to be addressed by the coach though and not some interne forum poster.

That course of action doesn't need to be explored, because it's a terrible course of action based on horrible stats.

Crosby is a - 10. Should we sit him too?

 

[zero8771]

Does no one remember the start of last year? The team is cruising. They will turn it on when they need to. They may not be as good as last year but the sky is not falling

 

[imouttahereEdWinger]

Yup. +1 over the first 24 games this year if you remove those as outliers. +5 over the first 26 games.

You want to remove 11% of games?

Also let's remove first Nashville win 4-0 since that's a big gap, and ummmm that recent Tampa game too since 5-2 is a pretty big increase in differential. Since we're tossing outliers. Except fairly this time instead of running some narrative other than that this team is ASS this season.

 

[Peat]

I am saying that the last 24 games of last year ( without Letang ) the Pens gave up far less goals. The first 24 games this year the Pens scored far more goals with Letang but he negates the gain with bad 5 on 5 play. Now I would just advocate for the coach to experiment with sitting Letang for a couple of tough games and see what happens. That plus minus ( currently minus 13 ) deserves further examination as does his goals scored and powerplay points. I suspect that Letang gets some points in non crucial spots due to all the ice he gets ( like in a 7-0 game ) so a deeper dice into his individual stats should have been done by somebody other than me at this point. With that said just comparing the last 24 games in two different seasons has explained a lot and provided me with a course of action. That course of action needs to be addressed by the coach though and not some interne forum poster.

Why would you sit a guy who's +1 over the last 7 games and our joint highest scoring dman in this period?

I guess I've not said this directly enough.

Letang being the problem is no longer true. Its out of date. His form has turned a corner and that can be observed both in the stats you use and the eye test. The last 24 are nowhere near as relevant as the last 7. This thread and argument are too late to the party and sitting him would be somewhere between suicidal and asinine.

 

[larueskee]

Why would you sit a guy who's +1 over the last 7 games and our joint highest scoring dman in this period?

I guess I've not said this directly enough.

Letang being the problem is no longer true. Its out of date. His form has turned a corner and that can be observed both in the stats you use and the eye test. The last 24 are nowhere near as relevant as the last 7. This thread and argument are too late to the party and sitting him would be somewhere between suicidal and asinine.

Good point and a maybe. I have not taken the time to look at schedule strength but winning against the Flyers who have lost 9 in a row and barely winning at that is cause for concern. I just think it would be good to rest him coming off that injury as opposed to any of last years good plus minus guys. Now with Murray out that complexes the issue even more. I will say that Rutherford's idea that they need even more scoring might not be reasonable as they have scored more goals, given up about the same but with Letang have a negative goal differential. That is over a 24 game period that doesn't even include last years playoffs ( just because the playoffs are a completely different brand of hockey I did not include them ).

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

The Pens have some good players who played very poorly in 3 games and got a crapton of minuses

Those minuses don't automatically make them poor players who need benched or mins reduced

THE END

 

[Ogrezilla]

Good point and a maybe. I have not taken the time to look at schedule strength but winning against the Flyers who have lost 9 in a row and barely winning at that is cause for concern. I just think it would be good to rest him coming off that injury as opposed to any of last years good plus minus guys. Now with Murray out that complexes the issue even more. I will say that Rutherford's idea that they need even more scoring might not be reasonable as they have scored more goals, given up about the same but with Letang have a negative goal differential. That is over a 24 game period that doesn't even include last years playoffs ( just because the playoffs are a completely different brand of hockey I did not include them ).

what about Crosby's -10? Why not sit him too?

 

[Mordax]

You want to remove 11% of games?

Also let's remove first Nashville win 4-0 since that's a big gap, and ummmm that recent Tampa game too since 5-2 is a pretty big increase in differential. Since we're tossing outliers. Except fairly this time instead of running some narrative other than that this team is ASS this season.

I'm just pointing out that judging a team by its running total goal differential is something to be taken with a grain of salt. Sure it can be telling, but at the same time, the team could be rolling along nicely, consistently winning 1 to 2 goal games for a 1/4 of the season, get blown out by a touchdown or more on a single night, and all of a sudden that +/- stat doesn't look as great. Same can be applied the opposite way (lose all season by 1 goal games, then throw up 10 goals in a game).

And for the record, I think the team has serious issues. I'm just pointing out the issue with that stat.

 

[radapex]

If only we could get rid of Letang.

I really want to know why people are surprised by Letang and Dumo having the worst goal deferential on the team.

They play the most minutes and we are bleeding goals. Play Maatta and Schultz more and they will likely be bleeding goals as well.

Not only do they play the most minutes, but they do so against our opponents' best players

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

More than blaming any individual players (and yes Letang has been bad getting re-acclimated after the neck injury), the circumstances of the comparison are totally different. Down the stretch and in the playoffs last year vs october and november after winning a 2nd straight cup. I wonder which Pittsburgh team is going to perform better. The whole team has been extremely lethargic so far this season with an obvious cup hangover, and i expect them to get better as the season goes on.

 

[larueskee]

Regarding Crosby and most top 6 forwards: Plus minus is not as important as it is for a defensemen. For a defensemen plus minus is very important and revealing.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Plus minus is a trash stat and you should stop using those words together in such close proximity forever.

 

[larueskee]

Plus minus is a trash stat and you should stop using those words together in such close proximity forever.

There is a direct relationship between goal differential for a team and plus minus. You got a bunch of minus guys and your a minus team in goal differential. Some you like to point out that there are certain instances when a certain player might not have anything to do with a plus or a minus. Those situations are rare and if you watch the whole sequence and what is happening away from the play you will find that the number of pluses awarded and minuses given is sometimes decided far away from the play. Defensemen who exhibit the teams worst plus minus get the least minutes on my teams. Conversely d men who have the best plus minus get the most ice until that trend changes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Plus minus is a garbage stat and judging teams based on goal differential is just insanely dumb. Know what inflates goal differential? Blowout wins or blowout losses. The Penguins got blown out by a combined score of 24-3 in 3 games this year, of course that is going to tank the goal differential stats.

Judging players based on +/- is just dumb and lazy, especially in such a small sample size.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Defensemen who exhibit the teams worst plus minus get the least minutes on my teams. Conversely d men who have the best plus minus get the most ice until that trend changes.

Hate to say it, but you might be under-utilizing some good players if plus/minus is ALL that you're going by.
But I realize you're married to this stat and you're gonna go down with this ship...enjoy!

 

[HandshakeLine]

There is a direct relationship between goal differential for a team and plus minus. You got a bunch of minus guys and your a minus team in goal differential. Some you like to point out that there are certain instances when a certain player might not have anything to do with a plus or a minus. Those situations are rare and if you watch the whole sequence and what is happening away from the play you will find that the number of pluses awarded and minuses given is sometimes decided far away from the play. Defensemen who exhibit the teams worst plus minus get the least minutes on my teams. Conversely d men who have the best plus minus get the most ice until that trend changes.

No, +/- is historically a bad stat that does not measure anything of worth, outside of a very specific set of circumstances, and certainly not the circumstances you think it does.

 

[Ms Maggie]

Won 5 of last 6. I assume Letang has ridden the bench a lot.

 

[66871]

Yup. +1 over the first 24 games this year if you remove those as outliers. +5 over the first 26 games.

If you are going to throw out our three worst losses, you should also throw out our three biggest wins to compensate.

I mean, I don't even know why those three losses should be deemed outliers but whatever. You have to toss our three +4 wins if the intent is to correct.

 

[Ogrezilla]

If you are going to throw out our three worst losses, you should also throw out our three biggest wins to compensate.

I mean, I don't even know why those three losses should be deemed outliers but whatever. You have to toss our three +4 wins if the intent is to correct.

In general I agree, but you do kind of need to factor in Niemi being a complete turd.

 

[TrudeauG]

Take out 3 games..the 10-1 vs Chicago, 7-1 vs Winnipeg, 7-1 vs TB, and we are Probably in the +.

Can you make this go both ways?

 

[Night Shift]

Can you make this go both ways?

An old post ..I was trying to elaborate the old saying(what's the saying?) of a team getting blown out and throwing the film out and moving on.

 

[larueskee]

Well it is obvious that Sullivan doesn't believe too much in the stat. Will it be his downfall? Yeah I am a big advocate of the stat for d men and any so called checking line. The game is mostly played at even strength and if you are on the the ice for more goals against than scored I would question why and look to the film. I challenge any of you to tivo a few games and actually look at each individual on the ice during each goal and decide what those players could have been doing right or wrong that contributed to a goal for or against. You might have to rewind about 45 seconds prior to the goal for a accurate assessment but you will have some fun.

 

[wgknestrick]

No, +/- is historically a bad stat that does not measure anything of worth, outside of a very specific set of circumstances, and certainly not the circumstances you think it does.

large sample 5v5 GF% is what you should be concerned with. Fixes all the inherent issues with +- (which was obviously created by idiots). Do not for a second think that 5v5 GF% isn't the most important single stat in hockey at the team or player level though.