3 Goal differentials in the last 73 games to open your eyes

larueskee

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I'm big on goal differentials as any coach or player should be. Simply put, you have to score more than your opponent to win. This is the primary reason I would advocate keeping minus players off the ice more than plus players most importantly your defense.

This years first 24 games the Pens are a minus 20 which is 3rd worst in the conference
Last years last 24 regular season games the Pens were plus 12
Last years playoff run of 25 games the Pens were a plus 20

The biggest change in the lineup would be the addition of Letang who at minus 16 gets 25.5 minutes a game to this point. Dumo at minus 9 and 21 minutes is another issue but I suspect part of his problem is time with Letang. This is just a quick glimpse but it should open some eyes.
 
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Jacob

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Cool.
 

Ogrezilla

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If only we could get rid of Letang.

I really want to know why people are surprised by Letang and Dumo having the worst goal deferential on the team.

They play the most minutes and we are bleeding goals. Play Maatta and Schultz more and they will likely be bleeding goals as well.
it's weird that Crosby is on for a lot of goals too. Crazy.
 

larueskee

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it's weird that Crosby is on for a lot of goals too. Crazy.

I hear ya but I imagine that Crosby is on the ice a lot when Letang is also. Now I put this thread up in a hurray and at some stage might add some other evidence if this and the eye test are not enough. However at this stage the bottom line is and has to be to reduce Letang's status and see what happens.
 

Ogrezilla

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I hear ya but I imagine that Crosby is on the ice a lot when Letang is also. Now I put this thread up in a hurray and at some stage might add some other evidence if this and the eye test are not enough. However at this stage the bottom line is and has to be to reduce Letang's status and see what happens.
The bottom line should be that the whole team is playing garbage defensive hockey, Letang included.
 

larueskee

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The bottom line should be that the whole team is playing garbage defensive hockey, Letang included.
Yes but to understand why the team is playing so poor defensively you have to use the tools at your disposal. In this case the stats bare this out nicely. I would go out on a limb and say that sitting Letang would do a few things. It would reduce the goal differential, it would enable the coach to reevaluate his defense corps, it would give both Schultz and Cole the opportunity to exhibit their great plus minus ranks of last year. The Pens had 2 guys last year ( Schultz & Cole ) with the some of the highest plus minus of any NHL players. Throwing that away just to get mileage out of the Letang contract is costing the team wins and possibly playoff revenue equal or greater than Letang's contract. Yeah Letang is flashy but at what cost?
 

Ogrezilla

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Yes but to understand why the team is playing so poor defensively you have to use the tools at your disposal. In this case the stats bare this out nicely. I would go out on a limb and say that sitting Letang would do a few things. It would reduce the goal differential, it would enable the coach to reevaluate his defense corps, it would give both Schultz and Cole the opportunity to exhibit their great plus minus ranks of last year. The Pens had 2 guys last year ( Schultz & Cole ) with the some of the highest plus minus of any NHL players. Throwing that away just to get mileage out of the Letang contract is costing the team wins and possibly playoff revenue equal or greater than Letang's contract. Yeah Letang is flashy but at what cost?
man do I really disagree with you
 

Riptide

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However at this stage the bottom line is and has to be to reduce Letang's status and see what happens.

So you want to transfer the minuses to Schultz and Maatta/Hunwick instead of Letang? It might make Letang feel better, but sadly it's not going to change the fortunes of our team. Fortunately +/- hasn't been a relevant stat in years.
 

Riptide

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Yes but to understand why the team is playing so poor defensively you have to use the tools at your disposal. In this case the stats bare this out nicely. I would go out on a limb and say that sitting Letang would do a few things. It would reduce the goal differential, it would enable the coach to reevaluate his defense corps, it would give both Schultz and Cole the opportunity to exhibit their great plus minus ranks of last year. The Pens had 2 guys last year ( Schultz & Cole ) with the some of the highest plus minus of any NHL players. Throwing that away just to get mileage out of the Letang contract is costing the team wins and possibly playoff revenue equal or greater than Letang's contract. Yeah Letang is flashy but at what cost?

No, it bares out only what you want it to, which is not the same thing as reality. I guess the next thing you're going to say is that we should start playing Sheahan with Crosby, because RS is a +2 and Guentzel is a -8 (2nd worst forward on the team).:shakehead
 

WayneSid9987

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Bottom line is everyone to a man has to be better. From individual players to 5-man units to coaching/pushing the right buttons/pre-scouts and so on.

Letang isn't goin' anywhere. He simply needs to be better and is a key cog on the back end. Thought the last 2 games theres been some good mixed with the bad instead of just allotta bad. Hopefully that starts tilting towards alotta good and a little bad. Thats where Sully and the Pens need him to be.
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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So you want to transfer the minuses to Schultz and Maatta/Hunwick instead of Letang? It might make Letang feel better, but sadly it's not going to change the fortunes of our team. Fortunately +/- hasn't been a relevant stat in years.

If they were bleeding +/- at the same rate Letang is, that would make sense. They're not. I don't know where to find GA/60 for dmen anymore, but I'm willing to bet Letang's looks a lot worse given he's accumulating that score in only 2/3 minutes more ES time a night.

As a general thesis goes, Letang's shakiness at ES being a big part of our troubles should be pretty uncontroversial.


In fact, so uncontroversial, that I wonder how on earth anyone thought it was worth a thread or that they were opening eyes.

Particularly when its so badly out of date. Anyone want to guess Letang's +/- for the last 7 games? I'll give you a clue, its not something you'd usually sit a dman for...
 

Coastal Kev

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Here's what suck about Sully, the NHL and Hockey in general. When all else fails, coaches go to DEFENSE FIRST.

That's it. They can't create more offense with their coaching so they lean heavy on the defense first mindset. And it is a mindset. Example, when the Pens fired MJ and went to Sully. It wasn't his system that brought more scoring, it was simply a change in mindset.

Stinky
 

Riptide

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If they were bleeding +/- at the same rate Letang is, that would make sense. They're not. I don't know where to find GA/60 for dmen anymore, but I'm willing to bet Letang's looks a lot worse given he's accumulating that score in only 2/3 minutes more ES time a night.

As a general thesis goes, Letang's shakiness at ES being a big part of our troubles should be pretty uncontroversial.


In fact, so uncontroversial, that I wonder how on earth anyone thought it was worth a thread or that they were opening eyes.

Particularly when its so badly out of date. Anyone want to guess Letang's +/- for the last 7 games? I'll give you a clue, its not something you'd usually sit a dman for...


Then use GA and GA/60. +/- is a terrible f***ing stat. For example, on Sheahan's first ES goal against (WPG game), he was down low in the circle and passed the puck to the point (Trotman?). The D fumbled the puck, and Wheeler and Schefelie went in on a 2-1 and scored. Yet everyone on the ice got a minus for that - including Sheahan, and the 0ther winger, neither of whom had anything to do with why Winnipeg scored.
 

Peat

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Then use GA and GA/60. +/- is a terrible ****ing stat. For example, on Sheahan's first ES goal against (WPG game), he was down low in the circle and passed the puck to the point (Trotman?). The D fumbled the puck, and Wheeler and Schefelie went in on a 2-1 and scored. Yet everyone on the ice got a minus for that - including Sheahan, and the 0ther winger, neither of whom had anything to do with why Winnipeg scored.

Fair point. I just don't know what site to look at for that now. Although wouldn't that show up in Sheahan's GA/60 as well?
 

ETA

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Agreed, this sounds like another stat that would be a lot more useful if it normalized by dividing by minutes played (ditto with PPG, Goals, Hits etc.). That still wouldn't capture differences due to usage although at least +/- implies even strength situations.
 

Riptide

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Fair point. I just don't know what site to look at for that now. Although wouldn't that show up in Sheahan's GA/60 as well?

That exact scenario? Absolutely. But it then gets balanced over the icetime players are spending on the ice. For example, Letang is averaging what... 26 minutes a night (lets call it that). Corrado in his time here was averaging 11 minutes a night. If both are on the ice for a goal, while it counts as a minus, GA60 will balance that out against their TOI. So Corrado being here for 11 minutes and getting scored on once a game will show up a lot differently then Letang being here for 26 minutes a night and getting scored on once a game. At least then there's some context to the number, rather then just a number that some posters are trying to spin to suit their argument. That doesn't make GA60 a great number, but it's a hell of a lot better than +/-. +/- is and always has been a shitty number, and I'm completely clueless as to why anyone would try and base any sort of real argument using it.
 

Riptide

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Agreed, this sounds like another stat that would be a lot more useful if it normalized by dividing by minutes played (ditto with PPG, Goals, Hits etc.). That still wouldn't capture differences due to usage although at least +/- implies even strength situations.

Am very sure that GA60 is only looking at ES minutes. So while you lose the +/- gained/lost while on special teams (SH goals for/against), that's usually not that big of an issue vs them getting scored on at ES.
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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That exact scenario? Absolutely. But it then gets balanced over the icetime players are spending on the ice. For example, Letang is averaging what... 26 minutes a night (lets call it that). Corrado in his time here was averaging 11 minutes a night. If both are on the ice for a goal, while it counts as a minus, GA60 will balance that out against their TOI. So Corrado being here for 11 minutes and getting scored on once a game will show up a lot differently then Letang being here for 26 minutes a night and getting scored on once a game. At least then there's some context to the number, rather then just a number that some posters are trying to spin to suit their argument. That doesn't make GA60 a great number, but it's a hell of a lot better than +/-. +/- is and always has been a ****ty number, and I'm completely clueless as to why anyone would try and base any sort of real argument using it.

We're talking someone who didn't bother to check Letang's +/- in the last two weeks before yelling angrily about how its all his fault and he should be HS'ed, I think that might give you a clue as who would try and base an argument on it :P

But the counter-argument that Maatta/Schultz would have ended up with +/- just as bad if taking more of his minutes over this season so far is nearly as bad imo.
 

larueskee

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Another key stat for your entertainment. The last 24 regular season games of last year the Pens gave up 68 goals. The first 24 of this season the Pens have given up 82 Goals. That 14 is just about Letang's minus number BTW. Plus minus is a great stat at identifying problems isn't it?
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
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Another key stat for your entertainment. The last 24 regular season games of last year the Pens gave up 68 goals. The first 24 of this season the Pens have given up 82 Goals. That 14 is just about Letang's minus number BTW. Plus minus is a great stat at identifying problems isn't it?
XGkiwjk.gif
 

larueskee

Player/Member USA Hockey or affilates 1972-2006
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Now on top of that through the first 24 games this year the Pens have actually scored more goals than in the last 24 games of 2017, 83 versus 64. That is contrary to what the club is trying to do by adding even more scoring to overcome the shoddy defense. So if the coach were to focus on his defence by allotting ice time to the better plus minus players the Pens may just have the same result as last year which every body would be near happy with.
 

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