2024 vs. 2025 first round pick

[Rudy Russo]

I would keep the pick this season because I feel the pens will move up in the draft position before the draft lottery. Also, their remaining schedule is tough playing Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Rangers and Carolina. Below is their draft picks at least first three rounds the next two drafts.
2024:
1st round- Top Ten maybe top five? Penguins keep the pick.
1st Round*- Carolina goes to the cup finals or it's Philadelphia thru Carolina 2nd round pick to the pens
2nd Round pick- Penguins their own pick
3rd Round pick- To Vegas for Relly Smith

2025:
1st round pick to San Jose
2nd round pick to Montreal- Petey etc. trade
3rd round pick penguins own

 

[The Old Master]

It's not that I think it's a lock that the Pens will be picking in the top-10 next season. It's that there's an extremely real possibility of it, and that pick would be unprotected, so if they happen to bomb again (with a full season minus Jake and Sid one year older, and Sully at the helm), and get lucky in the lotto, that's a huge f*** up.

If the pick's a top-5 this year, I think you have to keep it and pray Demidov drops to you. Even if he doesn't, it's still pretty impossible to pass up.

One way or another, SJ is getting a very good pick.

IF we get a top 5 pick we almost need to take it (we could add to move up a little too) there are a few guys there that could help us greatly in the near future. but it needs to be in the top 5. anything less we need to trade it. (Macklin Celebrini, Cayden Lindstrom, Ivan Demidov, Anton Silayev)

 

[CaptainShark]

The first choice in the poll should say:

Keep 2024 first round pick (Top 10)

Because if it ends up 11+ it automatically goes to San Jose………..

I am well aware of the conditions, but my intention was to find out, how Pens-fans want the rest of the season to play out. My question included but was not reduced to the question, what penguins fans want Dubas to do if he has a choice. I chose the 8-12 range cause by my estimations there was/is a 95% chance, that the pick will be in that range.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Wants got nothin to do with it. If it’s 11+ it goes to SJ. Dubas or Pens fans have zero choice in the matter.

I know I sound harsh but you are asking a question that already has an answer if the pick is 11+.

 

[CaptainShark]

Wants got nothin to do with it. If it’s 11+ it goes to SJ. Dubas or Pens fans have zero choice in the matter.

I know I sound harsh but you are asking a question that already has an answer if the pick is 11+.

So you decide, what I WANT to know from Pens-fans, fine… Thought this was the Pens board and not North Korea.

And BTW: if you do not understand the difference between the two questions, you do not sound harsh, you just do not sound very smart.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Thought this was the Pens board and not North Korea.

You'd be surprised how much the venn diagram overlaps

Lol

Either way, SJS will end up pretty well. They were able to rip the bandaid off, sell assests, and start rebuilding.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If it’s 8-12OA like you say I’d prob flip it to SJ.

7OA or higher - would be unfortunate to go unprotected in ‘25 but I think you keep it.

In reality Dubas protected it top 10, so I’d imagine he keeps it if it’s top 10.

I’d be disappointed if the Pens kept it and didn’t walk away with one of Celebrini, Demidov, Yakemchuk, Catton, Buium, Levshunov.

 

[chethejet]

If say 8th I expect Yakemchuk to be there and a really good pick. Maybe another top 10 Parakh will be there. Levshunov I expect top 5 will be gone. But have to address the RD here.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think for me, it goes like this

1-5; Keep with zero hesitation.
6-8; Have internal discussion about who might be available and whether it's worth next year's pick having no lotto protection
9-10; Give the pick over to SJ imo. With this draft not having a ton of top end talent beyond top-5 and next year's pick having no lotto protection, best to punt.

 

[SEALBound]

IF we get a top 5 pick we almost need to take it (we could add to move up a little too) there are a few guys there that could help us greatly in the near future. but it needs to be in the top 5. anything less we need to trade it. (Macklin Celebrini, Cayden Lindstrom, Ivan Demidov, Anton Silayev)

Two things:
1. If we get top 5, they WILL keep it because it's incredibly unlikely we draft higher than 5ov next year, despite all of the naysayers here.
2. They can't trade the pick if they decide to keep it. A poster from the SJS side had a comprehensive list of the conditions involved with the pick. One of them was that they can't trade it if they keep it. Now, it's the internet and all so take it for what it's worth.

But exploring that premise, ignoring #2, if they come in at say 7-8, and they could trade back to 20 or so and nab an extra 2nd round pick, that would be nice. Best case scenario, Carolina makes the Cup finals and we get the late 1st. That would put us at 2 1sts and 2 2nds. If they are looking to compete next year, that's a nice bit of draft capital to play with. OR, you draft 4 guys and add them to the existing crop which would make one hell of a turnaround in prospect pools.

At the 20 and 30 range, I would be targeting Andrew Basha and Tanner Howe. Then with the 2nds, Lucas Pettersson and Maxmilian Curran.

 

[SEALBound]

I think for me, it goes like this

1-5; Keep with zero hesitation.
6-8; Have internal discussion about who might be available and whether it's worth next year's pick having no lotto protection
9-10; Give the pick over to SJ imo. With this draft not having a ton of top end talent beyond top-5 and next year's pick having no lotto protection, best to punt.

I don't think the non-lotto protection is as big of a driver as what others might think. I would say it's extremely unlikely that we finish worse than this year. Even then, the odds of a top 3 pick are pretty low.

The whole idea is, of the two, you want the lowest pick possible but really, unless it is indeed top 3 or top 5, does it really matter? Looking at prelim scouting reports, I'm not sure there's a ton of difference between the 7-10 this year and next. "Next year's draft is always deep!" But at 7-10, you can get a guy like Catton or Helenius or Iginla. I would wager they have as much of a chance at becoming impact NHL players than anyone else going in similar slots next year.

I would say it's a safe bet that we keep 1-8. 9 or 10, yeah a discussion but I think it's more directed to the overall course of the team. If they want to send the 24 pick to SJS and expect to get worse, they can also send out other players to get good prospects and draft capital back - Pettersson, Jarry, EK, Smith, Rakell, etc.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

So you decide, what I WANT to know from Pens-fans, fine… Thought this was the Pens board and not North Korea.

And BTW: if you do not understand the difference between the two questions, you do not sound harsh, you just do not sound very smart.

The people of North Korea are treated horribly by their government and implying that my fault finding in your message is in some way anywhere near what the North Koreans deal with on a daily basis is sickening. When someone points out that you could have done something better and gotten a better result by changing how you ask a question, take a moment to reflect on what they are asking instead of snapping back with you are a communist.

I’ll leave the maybe you are dumb comment alone. Instead I will provide you with the poll questions you should have asked:

1: Pens finish 11+ and 2024 pick automatically goes to SJ
2: Pens finish 8-10 and send 2024 pick to SJ, keep 2025 pick
3: Pens finish 8-10 and keep 2024 pick, send 2025 pick to SJ.

 

[CaptainShark]

The people of North Korea are treated horribly by their government and implying that my fault finding in your message is in some way anywhere near what the North Koreans deal with on a daily basis is sickening. When someone points out that you could have done something better and gotten a better result by changing how you ask a question, take a moment to reflect on what they are asking instead of snapping back with you are a communist.

I’ll leave the maybe you are dumb comment alone. Instead I will provide you with the poll questions you should have asked:

1: Pens finish 11+ and 2024 pick automatically goes to SJ
2: Pens finish 8-10 and send 2024 pick to SJ, keep 2025 pick
3: Pens finish 8-10 and keep 2024 pick, send 2025 pick to SJ.

Who the f*** do you think you are to tell me what I (have to) want to know?

If you are interested in a different and in your opinion better question, feel free to start your own poll but don’t f****** tell me what I should want.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Unless the pick is top 5 please send to SJS. Further decline from the core is inevitable. Letang's play during and since the Calgary implosion speaks for itself. Karlsson does not know what he doing in the PP. Jarry is still our goalie.

We could easily finish bottom 5 next year

 

[Ryder71]

Unless the pick is top 5 please send to SJS. Further decline from the core is inevitable. Letang's play during and since the Calgary implosion speaks for itself. Karlsson does not know what he doing in the PP. Jarry is still our goalie.

We could easily finish bottom 5 next year

Because we're out of it now (not mathematically) we'll probably win a few and finish 12th or so from the bottom.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Because we're out of it now (not mathematically) we'll probably win a few and finish 12th or so from the bottom.

Would love that. Take the decision out of Management's hands. Because I don't trust them to make the right one.

 

[Ryder71]

Would love that. Take the decision out of Management's hands. Because I don't trust them to make the right one.

Well, if that's how you feel, what about next year?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Well, if that's how you feel, what about next year?

I don't trust management to publicly concede that we suck. Even if it's true. Symbolically punting the pick to 25 indicates that we expect to suck.

I trust management to make okay-ish decisions outside of acknowledging that reality and acknowledging Sullivan is done.

 

[T1K]

It’ll be interesting to see what Dubas does. Keeping the pick obviously assumes he will make changes and expects improvement. Giving it up suggests they’re conceding next season as a wash and are planning a full-blown rebuild.

I think they keep the ‘24 pick.

A top prospect also carries trade value with upside so I think Dubas will lean towards keeping the 2024 pick

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If we get a top 10 pick, we keep it.

Doing otherwise would show zero confidence in next year's team.

 

[T1K]

After about 30 attempts on Tankathon…. So you’re saying there’s a chance

 

[The Old Master]

But exploring that premise, ignoring #2, if they come in at say 7-8, and they could trade back to 20 or so and nab an extra 2nd round pick, that would be nice. Best case scenario, Carolina makes the Cup finals and we get the late 1st. That would put us at 2 1sts and 2 2nds. If they are looking to compete next year, that's a nice bit of draft capital to play with. OR, you draft 4 guys and add them to the existing crop which would make one hell of a turnaround in prospect pools.

if we end up with 2 firsts and two 2nds I'm packaging them to move up. the quicker we can add our franchise players the better and you would normally need to be picking top 5 or better.

If we get a top 10 pick, we keep it.

Doing otherwise would show zero confidence in next year's team.

i have zero confidence in the team next year.
edit; unless we dump sully

 

[Jacob]

The wording says we get the Flyers 2nd or, if Carolina makes the final, Carolina's 1st, but not both.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Carolina's 1st would be 31 or 32. I don't think there's much difference in that pick versus pick 48 or whatever Philly will be.

 

[SEALBound]

The wording says we get the Flyers 2nd or, if Carolina makes the final, Carolina's 1st, but not both.

I assume you were talking to me. You're correct but what I said was:

Pens Top 10 2024 1st for a team's 2024 1st + 2024 2nd.
Carolina makes it to SCF = 2024 1st at 31/32.
We have our 2024 2nd.

Thus:
Team X 2024 1st
Carolina 2024 1st
Team X 2024 2nd
Penguins 2024 2nd

That's how I got there.