Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft

[Brian39]

How do you just rattle off information like this in every post? You have to had worked in the NHL in some capacity.

Nope. I just have Capfriendly, Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick bookmarked. Those 3 sites are incredible and have a ton of useful info. The first two have it all organized and presented in a really intuitive way as well.

I've never worked in hockey, but I'm probably more interested in the cap/asset management aspect of the sport than the on-ice product. Of the top of my head, I knew that ROR's contract was $7.5M x 7 years that was frontloaded and mostly signing bonus. I also knew that he wasn't an elite guy yet in Colorado and was more of a "Bergeron light light" kind of guy. The rest was just going to Capfriendly and Hockey Reference to put actual numbers to it. Capfriendly has the AAV, yearly salaries, yearly signing bonuses, signing date, and the percentage of the cap the contract took up when it was signed all included on the player's page. They also have a page where you can pick a year, pick a position and sort by AAV or real-dollar compensation.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Pronman had an interesting ranking from November 15th. Cam Allen wasn't in his top 33, and he has had a rough start to the season, especially when you compare him to Buchinger who is on the same team. Sure, Buchinger is a year older, but I'd expect someone that is projected to be a mid 1st to outperform someone that was a 3rd round pick the year prior. Pronman also had David Reinbacher as his top dman and at 9th overall. So far, he's the only one to even rank him. Not a ton on him, but hopefully he is a riser and we at least get some defensemen at the top to consider. Obviously, just take the best player available, but would still like a wide range of players in that group to choose from.

The attached report has Shea Theodore as his comp, so he's someone to keep an eye on IMO. His stats look great in the Swiss league, 4th in team in points, 2nd with a +9 and one of only 4 players with a positive +/-.

Player Profile : David Reinbacher - Recruit Scouting

 

[Beauterham]

Pronman had an interesting ranking from November 15th. Cam Allen wasn't in his top 33, and he has had a rough start to the season, especially when you compare him to Buchinger who is on the same team. Sure, Buchinger is a year older, but I'd expect someone that is projected to be a mid 1st to outperform someone that was a 3rd round pick the year prior. Pronman also had David Reinbacher as his top dman and at 9th overall. So far, he's the only one to even rank him. Not a ton on him, but hopefully he is a riser and we at least get some defensemen at the top to consider. Obviously, just take the best player available, but would still like a wide range of players in that group to choose from.

The attached report has Shea Theodore as his comp, so he's someone to keep an eye on IMO. His stats look great in the Swiss league, 4th in team in points, 2nd with a +9 and one of only 4 players with a positive +/-.

Player Profile : David Reinbacher - Recruit Scouting

The scouting agencies are all over the place with the defensemen it seems. There doesn't seem to be a consensus top defenseman. Cameron Allen and Mikhail Gulyayev appear to be the 2 that get ranked highest most of the time. Allen is, as you said, being outperformed by Buchinger while Gulyayev does look very appealing but is Russian, so would rather not take the chance.

Lukas Dragicevic, Hunter Brzustewicz and Caden Price look interesting, would need to see more of them though.

It seems the top of the '23 draftclass is insanely forward heavy.

​

 

[Beauterham]

BTW, hypothetical situation: what if we tank hard and eventually end up with the 3rd overall pick. Bedard and Fantilli go first and second. With the Russia/Ukraine situation and the fact that Russian prospects might not easily be able to come over, would we still pick Michkov at 3 or trade down to 4/5 for Carlsson or Bensson?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, Michkov is signed through 25/26 in the KHL. I'd probably be perfectly fine with Carlsson at 3, but 3 is going to be a tough spot for teams unless there is a riser that kind of breaks up that spot. The Wild waiting on a 5th round pick is fine, but waiting on the #3 overall is a different story.

 

[Brockon]

Yeah, Michkov is signed through 25/26 in the KHL. I'd probably be perfectly fine with Carlsson at 3, but 3 is going to be a tough spot for teams unless there is a riser that kind of breaks up that spot. The Wild waiting on a 5th round pick is fine, but waiting on the #3 overall is a different story.

Based on what Michkov is doing, I think you have to go with the BPA and wait the 3 years for him to be done in Russia.

Unless Carlsson shows more in the next few months, he's a step down in Michkov in terms of offensive ceiling - and you should take the franchise winger over the projected top 6 centre ceiling Carlsson is being identified as every time.

Keep in mind, I like what Carlsson is doing, I'm following his trajectory closely as he's in the player range I'm expecting to draft in my dynasty fantasy league entry draft this summer if my goaltending doesn't right itself... My roster should be in the 3-5 mix out of 12, but my goalies are letting me down in a major way and I'm likely finishing 8-10th to end up drafting 3-5 OA unless the 7th place guy leap frogs me in our draft lotto.

 

[Brian39]

BTW, hypothetical situation: what if we tank hard and eventually end up with the 3rd overall pick. Bedard and Fantilli go first and second. With the Russia/Ukraine situation and the fact that Russian prospects might not easily be able to come over, would we still pick Michkov at 3 or trade down to 4/5 for Carlsson or Bensson?

I don't think that Michkov is a lock to go #3 and I'm less convinced that a team would give up more assets to trade up from 4 or 5 to take him at #3.

His draft is going to be really, really interesting. The NHL terminated their agreement with the KHL and the exact ramifications of it are a little unclear. One article I read reported that the NHL would still be honoring KHL contracts, but it didn't source that info and that language was not included in the AP story that acted as the source of all the articles written about it. The agreement was the only real reason the two leagues honored each others' contracts so I'm not really sure why the NHL would continue to do so.

There is a real legal possibility that Michkov would be allowed to play in the NHL next season if he got to North America and wanted to do so. However, there is also the real possibility that he would be physically prevented from leaving Russia if authorities caught wind of him trying to leave the country. Russia has already done that once this year, so it isn't a far-fetched idea. There was a lot of smoke that suggested Kaprizov had to secretly flee Russia this summer as well. As of 2022, 'not being under a KHL contract' is no longer a guarantee that a Russian player can leave Russia and come to the NHL.

NHL teams are now prohibited from communicating with Russian-based agents, so Michkov would have to hire a North American based agent certified by the NHLPA in order to communicate with teams. Doing so would probably raise some alarm bells to Russian authorities, so I don't know that he will. There is a ton of risk in drafting him with a super early pick. Teams likely won't have any official knowledge of his short or long term intentions and there is no guarantee that he will be allowed to leave Russia at the conclusion of his contract in 2026.

Assuming Michkov is physically present in Russia at the time of the draft, whichever team picks him will have to do it with the full knowledge that he might not ever leave Russia. Given the talent at the top of this draft, I don't know that you can justify using your 3rd on him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, remember Tarasenko falling due to Russian factor, the Russian factor has dialed up to 100 this year and probably for the next few drafts. Now, Michkov is a higher tier prospect that might be worth taking a bigger gamble on, and if this season felt more like a fluke as opposed to a bigger problem, then I'd be more on board taking the gamble, but I think we need a more certain foundational piece.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

BTW, hypothetical situation: what if we tank hard and eventually end up with the 3rd overall pick. Bedard and Fantilli go first and second. With the Russia/Ukraine situation and the fact that Russian prospects might not easily be able to come over, would we still pick Michkov at 3 or trade down to 4/5 for Carlsson or Bensson?

My thoughts as well. Not worth the risk.

Until that charade is over, I would not draft a Russian unless they are already playing in NA juniors or somewhere outside of Russia.

 

[bleedblue1223]

My thoughts as well. Not worth the risk.

Until that charade is over, I would not draft a Russian unless they are already playing in NA juniors or somewhere outside of Russia.

I'd draft them, but probably not till 3rd or 4th round. Kind of like what we did with Koromyslov. At that point, they are either the prospect that will take awhile to develop anyway, or it's a high-end talent that is dropping big time because of Russian factor. By that point in the draft, you really aren't expecting each pick to play NHL games for you, so I'd be more willing to take risks.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I'd draft them, but probably not till 3rd or 4th round. Kind of like what we did with Koromyslov. At that point, they are either the prospect that will take awhile to develop anyway, or it's a high-end talent that is dropping big time because of Russian factor. By that point in the draft, you really aren't expecting each pick to play NHL games for you, so I'd be more willing to take risks.

By the 3rd or 4th round, expectations are already low, but I still wouldn’t draft any Russian players.

I understand, however, the argument in favor of doing so.

 

[Beauterham]

I don't think that Michkov is a lock to go #3 and I'm less convinced that a team would give up more assets to trade up from 4 or 5 to take him at #3.

His draft is going to be really, really interesting. The NHL terminated their agreement with the KHL and the exact ramifications of it are a little unclear. One article I read reported that the NHL would still be honoring KHL contracts, but it didn't source that info and that language was not included in the AP story that acted as the source of all the articles written about it. The agreement was the only real reason the two leagues honored each others' contracts so I'm not really sure why the NHL would continue to do so.

There is a real legal possibility that Michkov would be allowed to play in the NHL next season if he got to North America and wanted to do so. However, there is also the real possibility that he would be physically prevented from leaving Russia if authorities caught wind of him trying to leave the country. Russia has already done that once this year, so it isn't a far-fetched idea. There was a lot of smoke that suggested Kaprizov had to secretly flee Russia this summer as well. As of 2022, 'not being under a KHL contract' is no longer a guarantee that a Russian player can leave Russia and come to the NHL.

NHL teams are now prohibited from communicating with Russian-based agents, so Michkov would have to hire a North American based agent certified by the NHLPA in order to communicate with teams. Doing so would probably raise some alarm bells to Russian authorities, so I don't know that he will. There is a ton of risk in drafting him with a super early pick. Teams likely won't have any official knowledge of his short or long term intentions and there is no guarantee that he will be allowed to leave Russia at the conclusion of his contract in 2026.

Assuming Michkov is physically present in Russia at the time of the draft, whichever team picks him will have to do it with the full knowledge that he might not ever leave Russia. Given the talent at the top of this draft, I don't know that you can justify using your 3rd on him.

Great post Brian.

Didn't even thought about the NHL terminating their agreement with the KHL.

IMO talentwise Michkov should definitely should go top 3, but with all the complications surrounding him I agree it's probably too much of a gamble to actually pick him up in the top 3. That opens the next question: at what position ARE we going to be comfortable drafting him knowing there's a chance he might not ever wear the note?

 

[Brian39]

IMO talentwise Michkov should definitely should go top 3, but with all the complications surrounding him I agree it's probably too much of a gamble to actually pick him up in the top 3. That opens the next question: at what position ARE we going to be comfortable drafting him knowing there's a chance he might not ever wear the note?

So many variables go into that. I feel confident that he won't still be there by our 2nd pick, even if we acquire a 1st rounder that winds up being in the late teens. I could see him slipping out of the top 10 if teams truly don't know his long-term intentions or if he has made it privately clear that he intends to play out his KHL contract. But someone 11-16 would still snag him.

The following is based on the assumption that he hasn't left Russia or had private communications stating his intention to do so:

Wherever our first pick lands, I wouldn't take him over any center that our scouts view as a safe top 6 guy (or riskier 1C ceiling guy) who is either NHL ready or just 1 year away. I don't know how many of those prospects exist in this draft, but if our pick arrives and one is left, I would take that guy. If none of them are left, then I would take Michkov. Centers are super important, hard to acquire and Thomas is the only guy in the organization I feel comfortable projecting as a top 6 center by 2025.

Our young winger pipeline is in good shape. Kyrou is locked up long term and I hope that the intention is to extend Buch when his deal is up. Our top 3 prospects are all wingers and I think it is reasonable to believe that we currently have 4 guys in the organization who will be legitimate top 6 NHL wingers by 2025. I don't feel a need to take a 'safe' winger who will likely become a 2nd line player over a riskier Michkov. My understanding of this draft is that there isn't a consensus stud D man to reach for in the top 10 or so picks.

Given all that, I'm comfortable taking the gamble on Michkov wherever our first pick lands unless there is a stud C with short-term NHL readiness still available.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I’m curious as I don’t follow prospects pre draft very often until the WJC but this seems like a good year to change that.

What’s the knock on Dragicevic? Looks like he’s projecting near 100 points on the blue line. Is he just an all offense guy?

 

[execwrite1]

Mocked at #8 - Brayden Yager C/RW 6' 170

A shoot first centre - wing who displays one of the best releases in junior was the CHL Rookie of the Year. A hard accurate shooter who has improved his playmaking, and regularly scores or creates highlight goal. His wrist shot is is fast off his stick, and his traffic area play highlights his strong puck work and shooting skills. He knows how to play off coverage, making himself an available option for his puck carrying teammates. Likes to rocket in on zone entries from the left wing side. Models his game after Nathan McKinnon.


--Bill Płaczek--

 

[Beauterham]

Mocked at #8 - Brayden Yager C/RW 6' 170

A shoot first centre - wing who displays one of the best releases in junior was the CHL Rookie of the Year. A hard accurate shooter who has improved his playmaking, and regularly scores or creates highlight goal. His wrist shot is is fast off his stick, and his traffic area play highlights his strong puck work and shooting skills. He knows how to play off coverage, making himself an available option for his puck carrying teammates. Likes to rocket in on zone entries from the left wing side. Models his game after Nathan McKinnon.


--Bill Płaczek--

He does need to gain at least 20lbs, but he's an interesting option at '8'.

 

[DatDude44]

Anybody down to start a go fund me to pay off Bettman for the lottery???? Or to increase stillmans bottom line to allow Doug a tankening of this season. Lmao to save the next 10 years?

Bedard would bring this franchise hundreds of millions over the next 15 years ))

 

[542365]

I volunteer to play goalie every game the rest of the season. Even then we might have trouble out tanking Anaheim and Columbus. God they suck.

A top ten pick seems more and more likely every day, which is wonderful. Lots of great prospects and the hit rate that the Blues have had in the first round recently gives me a lot of hope that we’re in for a really exciting pick. I’d love to get back into the later first on top of our pick too.

 

[PocketNines]

BTW, hypothetical situation: what if we tank hard and eventually end up with the 3rd overall pick. Bedard and Fantilli go first and second. With the Russia/Ukraine situation and the fact that Russian prospects might not easily be able to come over, would we still pick Michkov at 3 or trade down to 4/5 for Carlsson or Bensson?

Technically, teams can move up 10 spots so the Blues would have to be holding the 13th pick and then win one of the draws to move up 10 spots to #3. Otherwise they would just have to sink to at least the third worst overall record. They'd have to put up something like a .200 or worse the rest of the way to get there.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Technically, teams can move up 10 spots so the Blues would have to be holding the 13th pick and then win one of the draws to move up 10 spots to #3. Otherwise they would just have to sink to at least the third worst overall record. They'd have to put up something like a .200 or worse the rest of the way to get there.

Yep, currently we have a 0% chance of picking 3rd, and only 5 teams will have the chance to draft 3rd. It's a hypothetical worth thinking about, but not dwelling on. Instead of 3rd, I'd be more curious what we'd do if he falls to us, wherever we pick. Is a potential 4 year or so worth it? Or would we want to take someone that could make an impact in 2ish years.

 

[Beauterham]

Technically, teams can move up 10 spots so the Blues would have to be holding the 13th pick and then win one of the draws to move up 10 spots to #3. Otherwise they would just have to sink to at least the third worst overall record. They'd have to put up something like a .200 or worse the rest of the way to get there.

To be fair, I made that post a month ago when we were at 8 OA and not that far away from 3 OA.

 

[PocketNines]

To be fair, I made that post a month ago when we were at 8 OA and not that far away from 3 OA.

No worries, there have been five teams who seem impossible to catch – Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, San Jose and Arizona. Even if Arizona can pass a sinking Blues team, the Blues will have to win the lottery to get Bedard or Fantilli.

 

[PocketNines]

For reference, these were last year's odds to move up into a top-2 spot. Two chances. Looks like we will be somewhere in the 3.5% to 7.5% range. So something between 7-14% of getting Bedard or Fantilli. Not likely, but such luck is how franchises rise and fall sometimes. Why not us?

1. 18.5%
2. 13.5%
3. 11.5%
4. 9.5%
5. 8.5%
6. 7.5%
7. 6.5%
8. 6.0%
9. 5.5%
10. 3.5%
11. 3.0%
12. 2.5%

 

[Mike Liut]

I think we’ll be between 6-8

 

[PocketNines]

I think we’ll be between 6-8

That would be between 11.64% (8th) and 14.44% (6th) at hitting one of the two.