Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft

[bleedblue1223]

Thread to discuss all things 2023 draft.

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[bleedblue1223]

Looking at some of the defensemen in the draft, it's interesting stat watching and seeing Cam Allen struggle at Guelph, but Buchinger is putting up good numbers. An intriguing offensive defensemen, that's projected at the back of the 1st is Lukas Dragicevic. He's 6'2" and leads his team with 32 points in 23 games.

 

[Xerloris]

I know nothing about the draft cept for that one guy or you suck.

 

[Brian39]

It's so weird having absolutely zero clue what types of 1st round guys to focus our attention on.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Blues have a lottery pick and 2+ picks in the 20s. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Blues simply have a lone pick in the 20s. Nothing in between those possibilities would surprise me either.

I don't like drafting for positional need in the 1st round, especially when you only have 1 pick. It's a bit easier to justify going for positional need if you have multiple 1sts, but I still prefer to just pick the best prospect available (with ties resolving in favor of positional need).

I think my focus right now would be to largely focus on the prospects outside the top 15. If we sell/tank/suck then we can shift focus on the top of the group, but for now focus on who we want to pick if we're a playoff team. If we do sell, we should get a pick or two in this area anyway, so the resources/time/efforts spent focusing on these picks will still be valuable. Given the center-heavy nature of this draft, I do think there is a decent chance that some of the best D prospects could fall into the late teens or early 20s.

 

[STL fan in MN]

This draft has 3 guys at the top that would be a typical 1st overall almost every other year. I saw somewhere where Slafovsky, the guy MTL took 1st overall this past summer, would be unlikely to go in the top-5 of this draft.

Connor Bedard - leads WHL in scoring with 53 pts in 24 games as a 17 year old. Was on Canada’s first line in the WJC held this past summer and will almost certainly be a main go-to guy in the WJC next month as well.

Adam Fantelli - 2nd in NCAA scoring with 25 pts in 14 games as a Freshman. Also likely to make Canada’s WJC team.

Matvey Michkov - 12 pts in 8 VHL games (the minor league to the KHL. 0 pts in 3 KHL games. Said to be the best Russian prospect since Ovechkin. Besides the typical Russian factor with him though is he’s signed to a 4 year KHL contract. That could scare off some teams…or maybe he’ll be worth the wait like Kaprisov was.

Another guy pushing his way into the conversation is Leo Carlsson. 13 pts in 20 SHL games.

There’s quite a few very good forwards in this draft but I’ll stop there. Not super deep at D but there will always be a few good ones.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, it's a good draft to get lucky in, even if you don't win the #1 pick, getting into the top 3 will still land a great player. Then again, wasn't 2013 touted that way, and Mack and Barkov ended up being monumentally better pros than Drouin.

 

[Mike Liut]

We won’t be picking in the top 3, But a top 5-10 and a couple more in the 20’s would be nice.

 

[bleedblue1223]

We won’t be picking in the top 3, But a top 5-10 and a couple more in the 20’s would be nice.

By getting lucky, I meant winning the lotto by finishing with the 10ish best odds.

 

[Mike Liut]

By getting lucky, I meant winning the lotto by finishing with the 10ish best odds.

We could use some luck.

 

[Brian39]

We won’t be picking in the top 3, But a top 5-10 and a couple more in the 20’s would be nice.

Everyone in the bottom 9 of the league has a greater than 10% chance of picking in the top 2. 10th-to-last has a 7.3% chance.

Not great odds, but you're in the running if your pre-lotto pick would fall into that 5-10 range.

 

[Mike Liut]

Everyone in the bottom 9 of the league has a greater than 10% chance of picking in the top 2. 10th-to-last has a 7.3% chance.

Not great odds, but you're in the running if your pre-lotto pick would fall into that 5-10 range.

Let’s keep tanking then.

 

[Stealth JD]

Philly, Ottawa, Columbus, Chicago, Arizona, San Jose, Anaheim & Buffalo appear to have the worst 8-records in their sights. Then you've got a mix of bad-to-mediocre teams like Washington, Nashville, Vancouver, Calgary, Minnesota, St. Louis, Montreal & the Rangers all in the mix for spots 9-16. No way do the Blues acquire a first from any of the group of first 8 in such a stacked draft, or even a first from any of these teams listed aside from maybe the Rangers. If they're bad and miss the playoffs, and sell ROR and Tarasenko because they know they cannot be re-signed, the absolute best I could envision the Blues drafting is probably #12, #20 & #28. That in itself would be amazingly interesting, but result in little help for the immediate 4-years. Army would have $15M (or whatever the number is after raises to Kyrou/Thomas) to spend in free agency though, and a chance to reload with a new leadership core, so all wouldn't be necessarily lost for '24 and beyond.

 

[Brian39]

If they're bad and miss the playoffs, and sell ROR and Tarasenko because they know they cannot be re-signed, the absolute best I could envision the Blues drafting is probably #12, #20 & #28. That in itself would be amazingly interesting, but result in little help for the immediate 4-years. Army would have $15M (or whatever the number is after raises to Kyrou/Thomas) to spend in free agency though, and a chance to reload with a new leadership core, so all wouldn't be necessarily lost for '24 and beyond.

We're currently slated to pick 13th if the season ended today. If Calgary or Nashville wins tonight, we would be slated to pick 12th. If both win then we would slot in for 11th. We could be bottom 10 in the NHL by points and points percentage when games end tonight. Our -15 goal differential is 7th worst in the league. We've taken 6 out of 6 possible points in the games that go to OT, which is probably unsustainable and could shave a few points off our current pace.

I can think of a lot of scenarios where the "best case" scenario of a tank has us picking well before #12. I agree with your assessment of the bottom 8 teams (except Buffalo) and I don't think we have much hope of 'catching' them if we tank. Maybe a couple go on unexpected heaters, but I think you are dead-on that a bottom 5 finish is likely out of the cards. But I think this team could absolutely find itself picking within the top 10 if we throw in the towel, trade 3 of our top 9 forwards, and play Binner at a 50 start pace instead of the 63 start pace we've been playing him at.

Edit: I also don't know that Ottawa is truly in that 'absolutely racing to the basement' group. I think they have been playing better than their record suggests and I could see them working their way up the standings a bit.

 

[Blueston]

We're currently slated to pick 13th if the season ended today. If Calgary or Nashville wins tonight, we would be slated to pick 12th. If both win then we would slot in for 11th. We could be bottom 10 in the NHL by points and points percentage when games end tonight. Our -15 goal differential is 7th worst in the league. We've taken 6 out of 6 possible points in the games that go to OT, which is probably unsustainable and could shave a few points off our current pace.

I can think of a lot of scenarios where the "best case" scenario of a tank has us picking well before #12. I agree with your assessment of the bottom 8 teams (except Buffalo) and I don't think we have much hope of 'catching' them if we tank. Maybe a couple go on unexpected heaters, but I think you are dead-on that a bottom 5 finish is likely out of the cards. But I think this team could absolutely find itself picking within the top 10 if we throw in the towel, trade 3 of our top 9 forwards, and play Binner at a 50 start pace instead of the 63 start pace we've been playing him at.

Sounds like a plan!

 

[Majorityof1]

Sounds like a plan!

@Brian39 for GM/Tank Commander!!!!!!!

 

[Mike Liut]

If we decide to sell ROR and Tarasenko, do we really need to re-sign Barbs? What’s really the point? I’d take a 2nd for him and a 3rd for Mikkola.

 

[Celtic Note]

People seem to be way more interested in keeping Barby then I find myself. So, why the interest? He seems incredibly replaceable.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

If we decide to sell ROR and Tarasenko, do we really need to re-sign Barbs? What’s really the point? I’d take a 2nd for him and a 3rd for Mikkola.

I don’t think so. Some think we need to keep Parayko and Faulk as well. But why?

DA is not going to be able to sell as many players as I want him to, but moving as many as possible is what I want.

Anyone except Kyrou and Thomas can go.

Even Buch.

 

[Blueston]

I don’t think so. Some think we need to keep Parayko and Faulk as well. But why?

DA is not going to be able to sell as many players as I want him to, but moving as many as possible is what I want.

Anyone except Kyrou and Thomas can go.

Even Buch.

moving any of those players make sense, but not moving all of them. need something to build around or we will still suck by the time kyrou is old.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

moving any of those players make sense, but not moving all of them. need something to build around or we will still suck by the time kyrou is old.

What I'm saying is I don't care if anyone except JK and RT are moved.

At the very least, ROR and Tarasenko need to go at the TDL, regardless of our position in the standings.

 

[Mike Liut]

People seem to be way more interested in keeping Barby then I find myself. So, why the interest? He seems incredibly replaceable.

He and Sunny were vital in the cup run. You need those types.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

He and Sunny were vital in the cup run. You need those types.

That was three and a half years ago.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I think if the Blues are to do anything they will retool long before a rebuild. And outside of Thomas-Kyrou they will most likely be keeping Buch-Parayko-Faulk-Binnington. And also most likely keeping Schenn as well. And even if they did do a rebuild they will still need to hit cap floor.

 

[Mike Liut]

That was three and a half years ago.

He’s only 26

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If we can get good value in the trade market for Barbashev we should sell him. You don't build your team around 3rd/4th liners. You use those 3rd and 4th liners to support your 1st and 2nd liners.