2022-2023 OHL season prediction thread

[OMG67]

Is it official? Has Niagara proven you can’t buy a team through trades? Asking for a friend….

 

[three dog night]

Is it official? Has Niagara proven you can’t buy a team through trades? Asking for a friend….

They did have a rash of injuries for a month.

 

[AttackSound]

Is it official? Has Niagara proven you can’t buy a team through trades? Asking for a friend….

The IceDogs have been a real puzzle this season.

I understand that their manager has tried to put his stamp on the IceDogs, but there is a point in time where sometimes the best move you make is the one you don't.

The IceDogs may have check-mated themselves by having these massive turnover of players so quickly. It's early and things can change in this league and who knows maybe a team like the IceDogs need to learn how to gel as a group, which is not at all uncommon in this league.

But they haven't been jumping out of the gate like a team who is showing they can make noise thus far at least from a statistical standpoint. Yes understandably like a lot of teams right now they have injuries and those are always hard.

But teams need to be able to be creative to win games. Owen Sound for example has had to juggle their lineup early on for a few reasons and has continued to have success, maybe the IceDogs have zigged when they should have zagged with their decisions, and made too much juggling too fast.

But who knows... will see what the league will look like by the end of the season and see where we all shake out standings wise.

 

[OMG67]

The IceDogs have been a real puzzle this season.

I understand that their manager has tried to put his stamp on the IceDogs, but there is a point in time where sometimes the best move you make is the one you don't.

The IceDogs may have check-mated themselves by having these massive turnover of players so quickly. It's early and things can change in this league and who knows maybe a team like the IceDogs need to learn how to gel as a group, which is not at all uncommon in this league.

But they haven't been jumping out of the gate like a team who is showing they can make noise thus far at least from a statistical standpoint. Yes understandably like a lot of teams right now they have injuries and those are always hard.

But teams need to be able to be creative to win games. Owen Sound for example has had to juggle their lineup early on for a few reasons and has continued to have success, maybe the IceDogs have zigged when they should have zagged with their decisions, and made too much juggling too fast.

But who knows... will see what the league will look like by the end of the season and see where we all shake out standings wise.

I stated early on that if you are going to blow your load on players then at least get one elite player. They went out and got a bunch of solid OHLers which is nice but no one that is elite. To me, why not fill your OA‘a early, giver yourself a chance to win some games and then if you feel you have an opportunity, go blow your load on an elite player when that player comes available. You can’t win in the East this year with three 2nd lines. The Conference is too strong.

 

[dirty12]

Is it official? Has Niagara proven you can’t buy a team through trades? Asking for a friend….

can definitely buy a team in the OHL. There is probably a better chance if the GM/coach is building the roster that suits his system. Burnett in season effectively traded away his entire ‘01 class (1st, 2nd, 3-3rds) and every disposable pick to win a championship. You’re going to have a hard time convincing me Hamilton did not effectively buy a championship by acquiring the two best players at their position imo last season.
I think you can question the Niagara coach and owner’s philosophies, but the over hauled roster needs 20-25 games to be judged, not the 3-4 games it’s had a full line up

 

[OMG67]

can definitely buy a team in the OHL. There is probably a better chance if the GM/coach is building the roster that suits his system. Burnett in season effectively traded away his entire ‘01 class (1st, 2nd, 3-3rds) and every disposable pick to win a championship. You’re going to have a hard time convincing me Hamilton did not effectively buy a championship by acquiring the two best players at their position imo last season.
I think you can question the Niagara coach and owner’s philosophies, but the over hauled roster needs 20-25 games to be judged, not the 3-4 games it’s had a full line up

Come on, Dirty. You aren’t actually comparing two teams near or at the top of their respective conferences at the “deadline” to Niagara in the offseason are you? You are also comparing two teams in Guelph and Hamilton that acquired significantly impactful players at the top of their league with Niagara acquiring solid OHLers but none of them impactful at anywhere near the level of players Guelph and Hamilton acquired.

You are missing the point. Niagara blew their load on every day roster players. Not one of the players they acquired are elite. Not one of those players would be considered top of table scorers or defenders, just good solid OHLers. There is nothing wrong with good solid OHLers. I like a lot of the players they added but none of those players added would have been first tier deadline targets for Championship calibre teams. Not one.

To top it off, Niagara was in the toilet. They were coming off a bad season and were losing a couple of their top players to boot. They traded for players to get out of the toilet and the prognosticators on here were anointing them as some sort of conquering hero’s Challenging for home ice advantage in the playoffs. Ridiculous then and ridiculous now. Niagara is close to 20% into the season and they are no better this year than last.

After leveraging the Dickinson trade, they are still out two 2nds, one 3rd and three 4ths if you only look at top 5 round draft picks used and gained in trades. The players they added in those trades have scored a total of 9 goals over 12 games. By comparison, MacT scored 14 over 24 with Hamilton. He almost has the same impact as all the players added by Niagara.

So, Niagara has traded their defected 1st and a bunch of picks and some ok players for 9 goals over 12 games. At that pace, they will get 50 goals out of those deals. As you said, and rightfully so, it is still early. But a 12 game sample size isn’t small. It is a reasonable point to start making assessments. It is not looking good and no matter how hard we try, it is hard to try to justify what Niagara has done to date. Admittedly, I thought Niagara would at least be respectable. I had them around 6th or 7th in the Conference and I still feel they are likely to finish there after teams like Kingston and Hamilton sell off players. The problem is they don’t have much by way of draft capital to go hunting and why would they if they are lower int he standings. I think it may look more likely they settle on selling. The question is will their pride allow them to admit their mistake or will they shove more assets into the pot?

 

[dirty12]

Come on, Dirty. You aren’t actually comparing two teams near or at the top of their respective conferences at the “deadline” to Niagara in the offseason are you? You are also comparing two teams in Guelph and Hamilton that acquired significantly impactful players at the top of their league with Niagara acquiring solid OHLers but none of them impactful at anywhere near the level of players Guelph and Hamilton acquired.

You are missing the point. Niagara blew their load on every day roster players. Not one of the players they acquired are elite. Not one of those players would be considered top of table scorers or defenders, just good solid OHLers. There is nothing wrong with good solid OHLers. I like a lot of the players they added but none of those players added would have been first tier deadline targets for Championship calibre teams. Not one.

To top it off, Niagara was in the toilet. They were coming off a bad season and were losing a couple of their top players to boot. They traded for players to get out of the toilet and the prognosticators on here were anointing them as some sort of conquering hero’s Challenging for home ice advantage in the playoffs. Ridiculous then and ridiculous now. Niagara is close to 20% into the season and they are no better this year than last.

After leveraging the Dickinson trade, they are still out two 2nds, one 3rd and three 4ths if you only look at top 5 round draft picks used and gained in trades. The players they added in those trades have scored a total of 9 goals over 12 games. By comparison, MacT scored 14 over 24 with Hamilton. He almost has the same impact as all the players added by Niagara.

So, Niagara has traded their defected 1st and a bunch of picks and some ok players for 9 goals over 12 games. At that pace, they will get 50 goals out of those deals. As you said, and rightfully so, it is still early. But a 12 game sample size isn’t small. It is a reasonable point to start making assessments. It is not looking good and no matter how hard we try, it is hard to try to justify what Niagara has done to date. Admittedly, I thought Niagara would at least be respectable. I had them around 6th or 7th in the Conference and I still feel they are likely to finish there after teams like Kingston and Hamilton sell off players. The problem is they don’t have much by way of draft capital to go hunting and why would they if they are lower int he standings. I think it may look more likely they settle on selling. The question is will their pride allow them to admit their mistake or will they shove more assets into the pot?

OMG that is quite a departure from, ‘have Niagara proven you cannot buy a team’.
I don’t recall many prognosticators picking Niagara for home ice. I though that I was on the higher side as middle of the pack 5-6 along with the ‘67s.

I think it may you that missed the point. Results due to injury slowing gelling as a team and questionable coaching/playing style aside, Niagara through trade changed the core age and made themselves a better roster now. And (I thought to look good for the memorial cup committee).
Making a bold Tommasino type transaction for 9-picks (6-2nds) would not make Niagara a contender this season or next. Loading up with good ‘03s did make it possible to be good this season while giving the team a chance to better develop the key ‘04 age group and recoup picks by trading 2-4 of them OAs prior to next season.

 

[OMG67]

OMG that is quite a departure from, ‘have Niagara proven you cannot buy a team’.
I don’t recall many prognosticators picking Niagara for home ice. I though that I was on the higher side as middle of the pack 5-6 along with the ‘67s.

I think it may you that missed the point. Results due to injury slowing gelling as a team and questionable coaching/playing style aside, Niagara through trade changed the core age and made themselves a better roster now. And (I thought to look good for the memorial cup committee).
Making a bold Tommasino type transaction for 9-picks (6-2nds) would not make Niagara a contender this season or next. Loading up with good ‘03s did make it possible to be good this season while giving the team a chance to better develop the key ‘04 age group and recoup picks by trading 2-4 of them OAs prior to next season.

I think you and I have a differing opinion of what it means to buy a team. When I say “buy a team” I mean they don’t have a team and are trying to buy their way into one. That is exactly what they did. There is a vast difference between that and buying a player or two at the deadline to make a championship run.

You had them 5th which would be challenging for home ice. Many others also had them in that spot.

I think 12 games into the season is more than enough of a sample size to start questioning their decisions.

They spent a hell of a lot of draft capital to get to where they are, which right now is nowhere.

My personal opinion is you cannot buy a team. You can add a couple players at the deadline and maybe add a couple players at the beginning of the season to fill obvious holes bit to virtually overhaul their rsoter and add three OA’s and 19 year olds at the expense they paid to do it and not get one single impact player was VERY bad management. hence, you cannot buy a team. You need to build it. Once you build it, you can add to it.

Niagara was a mess coming into the summer...for obvious reasons. This ownership group had an opportunity to build a winner the way it needs to be built, through the draft. But, they punted the draft, probably for the next three seasons as well as their high draft pick this season for “respectability” year one? Sorry, Dirty. That isn’t good enough.

If Niagara holds course, they still should finish 6/7. I think Kingston, Oshawa and Hamilton will sell which should push them low int he standings. I think Niagara will prove to be slightly better than Sudbury. But, if Niagara decides it is better to recoup the draft picks as best they can, I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

 

[dirty12]

I think you and I have a differing opinion of what it means to buy a team. When I say “buy a team” I mean they don’t have a team and are trying to buy their way into one. That is exactly what they did. There is a vast difference between that and buying a player or two at the deadline to make a championship run.

You had them 5th which would be challenging for home ice. Many others also had them in that spot.

I think 12 games into the season is more than enough of a sample size to start questioning their decisions.

They spent a hell of a lot of draft capital to get to where they are, which right now is nowhere.

My personal opinion is you cannot buy a team. You can add a couple players at the deadline and maybe add a couple players at the beginning of the season to fill obvious holes bit to virtually overhaul their rsoter and add three OA’s and 19 year olds at the expense they paid to do it and not get one single impact player was VERY bad management. hence, you cannot buy a team. You need to build it. Once you build it, you can add to it.

Niagara was a mess coming into the summer...for obvious reasons. This ownership group had an opportunity to build a winner the way it needs to be built, through the draft. But, they punted the draft, probably for the next three seasons as well as their high draft pick this season for “respectability” year one? Sorry, Dirty. That isn’t good enough.

If Niagara holds course, they still should finish 6/7. I think Kingston, Oshawa and Hamilton will sell which should push them low int he standings. I think Niagara will prove to be slightly better than Sudbury. But, if Niagara decides it is better to recoup the draft picks as best they can, I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

I picked 5th in this thread because 5-6 is not a pick, but as you know full well from exchanging posts, I pegged Niagara as a middle of the pack team along with the ‘67s if the ‘67s were not buying/filling OA spot early.

What baffles me is that you cannot grasp the concept of trying to build a contender for next season that can play together a year in advance. If things go semi-well, the acquired 2002-03 can help the core 2004 group better develop. From the current roster there will be 3-OAs to go with 3 - 1sts, import or two, goalie, and a few other prospects all born 2004.

 

[OMG67]

I picked 5th in this thread because 5-6 is not a pick, but as you know full well from exchanging posts, I pegged Niagara as a middle of the pack team along with the ‘67s if the ‘67s were not buying/filling OA spot early.

What baffles me is that you cannot grasp the concept of trying to build a contender for next season that can play together a year in advance. If things go semi-well, the acquired 2002-03 can help the core 2004 group better develop. From the current roster there will be 3-OAs to go with 3 - 1sts, import or two, goalie, and a few other prospects all born 2004.

I agree a player or two can help develop younger players but when you trade so many picks as well as your first round pick to do it, it goes beyond trying to pay it forward. We’ve also seen a lot of teams in the Pro ranks try to buy a roster only to see it fall flat on its face. It rarely works.

If Niagara wants to built a franchise, start with the support team. Go get the top coaches and invest in proper facilities and development. Put $$$ into proper scouting. Make sure your able to do more than put the kids on the ice to play.

Once that is in place, you then invest a couple seasons building from the draft. Sure, add a player or two to help with that development.

But, to go out, add what now is four OA’s, plus a couple other 19 year olds isn’t that way, especially when it cost you six 2nds, six 3rds, and four 4ths. They did manage to recoup some of those picks, mostly by trading Dickinson but it still doesn’t diminish the fact they are artificially building a team from day one.

Does anyone know what they’ve done off ice? What kind of support are they providing? What kind of advanced coaching and training are they getting?

No first round pick in 2021 and no first after they traded him in 2022. The 2022 draft had a 2nd and a 4th. No 3rd or 5th. Who exactly are they trying to develop with no viable 16 year olds to hear or experience the message? And how do you properly scout when you pick three of your top six picks from the North York Rangers? Tell me they have a scouting department that drafts guys all from the same team.

Sorry, Dirty. I know where you want to go with this and I can understand your logic but in this case you are trying to make something out of nothing. Niagara has made a big mistake year one. They burnt through draft picks they should have tried to keep. With no 1st in 2021, they should not have drafted a player they knew wouldn’t report.

 

[dirty12]

I agree a player or two can help develop younger players but when you trade so many picks as well as your first round pick to do it, it goes beyond trying to pay it forward. We’ve also seen a lot of teams in the Pro ranks try to buy a roster only to see it fall flat on its face. It rarely works.

If Niagara wants to built a franchise, start with the support team. Go get the top coaches and invest in proper facilities and development. Put $$$ into proper scouting. Make sure your able to do more than put the kids on the ice to play.

Once that is in place, you then invest a couple seasons building from the draft. Sure, add a player or two to help with that development.

But, to go out, add what now is four OA’s, plus a couple other 19 year olds isn’t that way, especially when it cost you six 2nds, six 3rds, and four 4ths. They did manage to recoup some of those picks, mostly by trading Dickinson but it still doesn’t diminish the fact they are artificially building a team from day one.

Does anyone know what they’ve done off ice? What kind of support are they providing? What kind of advanced coaching and training are they getting?

No first round pick in 2021 and no first after they traded him in 2022. The 2022 draft had a 2nd and a 4th. No 3rd or 5th. Who exactly are they trying to develop with no viable 16 year olds to hear or experience the message? And how do you properly scout when you pick three of your top six picks from the North York Rangers? Tell me they have a scouting department that drafts guys all from the same team.

Sorry, Dirty. I know where you want to go with this and I can understand your logic but in this case you are trying to make something out of nothing. Niagara has made a big mistake year one. They burnt through draft picks they should have tried to keep. With no 1st in 2021, they should not have drafted a player they knew wouldn’t report.

You really don’t know if Niagara made a big mistake (with the trades made). I would not have gone to that extent, but teams with 6-7+ mostly high picked 19 yr olds and very good OAs generally contend. That’s what the Icedogs will have next season, and next season there’s a good chance the eastern conference hosts the memorial cup.
The owner said he intends to put together a solid bid to host. Not a good start but not all is lost yet

 

[OMG67]

You really don’t know if Niagara made a big mistake (with the trades made). I would not have gone to that extent, but teams with 6-7+ mostly high picked 19 yr olds and very good OAs generally contend. That’s what the Icedogs will have next season, and next season there’s a good chance the eastern conference hosts the memorial cup.
The owner said he intends to put together a solid bid to host. Not a good start but not all is lost yet

This isn’t official but it’s what I have for Niagara.

2023:
2nd - MISS
3rd - x
4th - PET, WSR, MIS
5th - x

2024:
2nd - x
3rd - SAG
4th - MISS (Conditional on Zito OA)
5th - x

2025:
2nd - LDN
3rd - x
4th - x
5th - SAG, OS, NIA (Conditional on Zito OA)

2026:
2nd - LDN
3rd - LDN
4th - NIA
5th - x

The players they traded out:

2022 Draft
1st - Dickinson

2021 Draft
1st - lost in penalty
2nd - Costanzo

2020 Draft
2nd - Leonard
2nd - Cooke
3rd - Roobroeck

This is not a team built for anything. If they stayed status Quo and held firm for next year, and they pushed their 2023 MISS 2nd round pick forward to a future draft, they’d have just enough to trade for two elite players provided they coupled those picks with both of their firsts in the 2023 draft.

If they do that, they may just be the worst team ever the following season 2024-25. If they don’t, how do they truly build a Memorial Cup contender?

 

[dirty12]

This isn’t official but it’s what I have for Niagara.

2023:
2nd - MISS
3rd - x
4th - PET, WSR, MIS
5th - x

2024:
2nd - x
3rd - SAG
4th - MISS (Conditional on Zito OA)
5th - x

2025:
2nd - LDN
3rd - x
4th - x
5th - SAG, OS, NIA (Conditional on Zito OA)

2026:
2nd - LDN
3rd - LDN
4th - NIA
5th - x

The players they traded out:

2022 Draft
1st - Dickinson

2021 Draft
1st - lost in penalty
2nd - Costanzo

2020 Draft
2nd - Leonard
2nd - Cooke
3rd - Roobroeck

This is not a team built for anything. If they stayed status Quo and held firm for next year, and they pushed their 2023 MISS 2nd round pick forward to a future draft, they’d have just enough to trade for two elite players provided they coupled those picks with both of their firsts in the 2023 draft.

If they do that, they may just be the worst team ever the following season 2024-25. If they don’t, how do they truly build a Memorial Cup contender?

Things do not always go as planned. But there should be little doubt Niagara is built for 2023-24. There are at least 9 signed ‘04s including 3-1st round picked F, import and two other D, and goalie, and very good choices for ‘03s as OAs. Time and time again, 9-10+ 19-20 yr olds has proved to be a winning formula. It’s all in place a year in advance, an expanded take on PBO (Oke) methodology. The biggest question might be if the coach is in place.
There might be an end of 2nd round compensation pick, and some picks acquired from ‘03 born that Niagara will be unable to roster as OAs.
SBY, NB, ‘67s, Barrie possess a lot of picks right now though that could change in two months. Despite limiting years picks can be traded, pick movement is still fluid.
Niagara is not at all flush with picks short term. But as I mentioned there will be some coming in from moving excess ‘03s and likely even more from the ‘04s the year after. We’ve heard/read all the doom and gloom forecasted for WSR, Ham, KGN, Guelph after the trade deadline since 2017, but they all had relatively speedy recoveries.
I doubt and would hope Niagara is not overly concerned about 2024-25.

 

[OMG67]

Things do not always go as planned. But there should be little doubt Niagara is built for 2023-24. There are at least 9 signed ‘04s including 3-1st round picked F, import and two other D, and goalie, and very good choices for ‘03s as OAs. Time and time again, 9-10+ 19-20 yr olds has proved to be a winning formula. It’s all in place a year in advance, an expanded take on PBO (Oke) methodology. The biggest question might be if the coach is in place.
There might be an end of 2nd round compensation pick, and some picks acquired from ‘03 born that Niagara will be unable to roster as OAs.
SBY, NB, ‘67s, Barrie possess a lot of picks right now though that could change in two months. Despite limiting years picks can be traded, pick movement is still fluid.
Niagara is not at all flush with picks short term. But as I mentioned there will be some coming in from moving excess ‘03s and likely even more from the ‘04s the year after. We’ve heard/read all the doom and gloom forecasted for WSR, Ham, KGN, Guelph after the trade deadline since 2017, but they all had relatively speedy recoveries.
I doubt and would hope Niagara is not overly concerned about 2024-25.

Clearly Niagara is not concerned about 24-25. That is not even a question. They are going to be horrid. The one thing that could potentially have saved them is trading a star player but they likely won’t have one. They may have Copeland and Waddick as 19 year olds but no first round pick from that draft. Kevin He may be their only 18 year old of consequence that season. That is assuming they don’t trade him next year at the deadline.

The reality is they are not starting with much other than Fimis, Castle and Sirizzotti up front and two of those guys they traded for. On the back end they had no one of any significant consequence outside of Dionicio. It is almost like an expansion team looking to host and challenge for a Memorial Cup in year three or four. I could actually make an argument it would be easier for an expansion team because they’d have top 4 first round picks the first two seasons to build around.

They have an uphill battle. I don’t recall an OHL team in is bad of a situation as Niagara was going into this offseason actually looking at hosting a Memorial Cup the following season.

I understand what you are saying about experienced players. I get it but they all lost a year and change to the Pandemic. Granted, so did the younger players but that year was important in so far as there was no evaluation of the ‘05s going into the 2021 draft. Even the ’04s lost a good portion of the second half of their season and playoffs. I wouldn’t look at draft position of the ‘04s and ‘05s with the same consistency of previous drafts. We’ve already seen a lot of variance in performance between first and third round picks. We need to look no further than Barlas vs Pinelli in Ottawa to understand that!

As of right now, if we are looking at Niagara realistically for next season, take age away and look strictly at impact. I would suggest the only impact players Niagara has are Castle and Fimis. I don’t think they have a goalie they can rely on. I don’t think they have an impact D-Man.

They won’t be bad next year. They will be god but if I am on a Memorial Cup Host committee, how do I evaluate Niagara? Do I look at their roster sheet or do I look at their current stats and standings?

Early intent to bid teams seem to be Niagara, Kingston and Sault. None of those teams really stand out. I think Kingston needs to get Wright back so they can gain extra assets through trade. Sault probably isn’t ready either. Will there be another team come into the fray in January? I don’t think so. So, maybe Niagara is looking best of a weak bunch?

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

 

[dirty12]

Clearly Niagara is not concerned about 24-25. That is not even a question. They are going to be horrid. The one thing that could potentially have saved them is trading a star player but they likely won’t have one. They may have Copeland and Waddick as 19 year olds but no first round pick from that draft. Kevin He may be their only 18 year old of consequence that season. That is assuming they don’t trade him next year at the deadline.

The reality is they are not starting with much other than Fimis, Castle and Sirizzotti up front and two of those guys they traded for. On the back end they had no one of any significant consequence outside of Dionicio. It is almost like an expansion team looking to host and challenge for a Memorial Cup in year three or four. I could actually make an argument it would be easier for an expansion team because they’d have top 4 first round picks the first two seasons to build around.

They have an uphill battle. I don’t recall an OHL team in is bad of a situation as Niagara was going into this offseason actually looking at hosting a Memorial Cup the following season.

I understand what you are saying about experienced players. I get it but they all lost a year and change to the Pandemic. Granted, so did the younger players but that year was important in so far as there was no evaluation of the ‘05s going into the 2021 draft. Even the ’04s lost a good portion of the second half of their season and playoffs. I wouldn’t look at draft position of the ‘04s and ‘05s with the same consistency of previous drafts. We’ve already seen a lot of variance in performance between first and third round picks. We need to look no further than Barlas vs Pinelli in Ottawa to understand that!

As of right now, if we are looking at Niagara realistically for next season, take age away and look strictly at impact. I would suggest the only impact players Niagara has are Castle and Fimis. I don’t think they have a goalie they can rely on. I don’t think they have an impact D-Man.

They won’t be bad next year. They will be god but if I am on a Memorial Cup Host committee, how do I evaluate Niagara? Do I look at their roster sheet or do I look at their current stats and standings?

Early intent to bid teams seem to be Niagara, Kingston and Sault. None of those teams really stand out. I think Kingston needs to get Wright back so they can gain extra assets through trade. Sault probably isn’t ready either. Will there be another team come into the fray in January? I don’t think so. So, maybe Niagara is looking best of a weak bunch?

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

You really don’t think much of Zito it seems. He will quite likely be an OA, and as about as gritty good as 2-way OA centres and leaders get imo.
Try to get past what you believe Niagara is now. Instead, remember the mess that Windsor was the year they won the memorial cup. Remember Niagara languishing in 7th playing <0.450 as the Christmas break neared, then going to the OHL final. Remember Flint very nearly holding off Sudbury for the right to draft Byfield, then very much a contender when the next season was shut down. Remember the Petes a mere point out of 9th during the trade deadline period last season.
Just look at the fact that Niagara has 9 signed ‘04 players at every position with 3 being 1st round picks, and OA choices of 1st, 3-2nd, 4th round selected players. It really does not seem to matter much that Flint’s 2-1sts and 3-2nds born in 2000 nearly lead the team to last overall as 18 yr olds, that team was built for their age 19 seasons.

 

[HockeyPops]

Just look at the fact that Niagara has 9 signed ‘04 players at every position with 3 being 1st round picks, and OA choices of 1st, 3-2nd, 4th round selected players.

Roster shows 8, who is their 9th?

 

[dirty12]

Roster shows 8, who is their 9th?

Flores, Vannetten, Leblanc, Dionicio, Leblanc,, Castke, Fimis, Klein, …thought Hull was but he is an ‘05.

 

[OMG67]

Flores, Vannetten, Leblanc, Dionicio, Leblanc,, Castke, Fimis, Klein, …thought Hull was but he is an ‘05.

Just remember that age is only a factor if the player himself is good. I’m not suggesting any of the players are bad, just making a subjective point.

The 67’s had Steven Laforme as an 18 year old last year. Gone this year. They traded 19 year old Gill-Shane, 19 year old Thomas Johnston, and 19 year old Teddy Sawyer. None of these players on this Ottawa67’s team were likely to play a significant role because they had better players that were younger. Ottawa has three ‘03s and two ‘02s and are positioned well because they have a strong foundation of players acquired mostly through the draft that form a strong nucleus to build from.

The point is, just because a team has a bunch of 19 year olds, it doesn’t mean they are all good. Many 19 year olds are bottom six types and bottom pairing D-Men On Championship calibre teams.

My point with Niagara has always been that outside of Fimis, they don’t have what you would call a major impact player. Do they have some solid OHLers? YES. If they have a team full of 18 year olds this year that finishes under .500, just because their birth certificate next year says they are 19 doesn’t make them all of a sudden exponentially better. That leap usually happens between their 16 and 17 year old season or maybe their 17 and 18 year old season If they were rookies at 17. It is rare for a marginal or slightly above average 18 year old become a front line type player at 19 On Championship calibre teams.

Klein and Vannetten are likely not even on Niagara next year out of training camp and if they are, they are likely to be insignificant pieces. Who knows about Flores? The team in front of him is kinda poor so tough to say if he can backstop a contender. His numbers in London last year weren’t great and this year the same. The jury is out on the Leblanc’s as to how much of an impact they will have. I think they will be fine though. Not impact but middle roster players and strong contributors. That leaves Fimis, Castle and Dionicio. Those three are the core 19 year olds next year. I really like all three. They will be impact players In my mind.

Ottawa returns Rohrer, Stonehouse, Gerrior, Smyth, Sirman, Mayich, and MacKenzie next year as 19 year olds. That is a more impact group of 19 year olds than Niagara. However, we in Ottawa are looking at next year as a retool year….

In my mind, from this roster, they have three returning D-Men. They need two impact D-Men plus two more decent ones. They have enough depth and power up front but they do need one Major Impact Forward to compliment what is coming back. That means they likely need to add a total of three Impact players to be even in consideration.

If I am the management on Niagara, I am trying to trade two of Dann, Zito, Sirrizzotti or Michaud at the deadline this year. They need the picks. Then in the offseason, try to add the third OA as a D-Man. If they tank a bit this year, they will have a good Import pick. See if they can get an NHL Draft guy at 18 years old, specifically as a D-Man If possible. Flip one of the 1st’s next year with picks for an Impact Forward, some sort of star player. Then use whatever picks left for another Impact player to keep up with the Jones’. If they can do that, then maybe they can be Championship calibre. BUT! They will have emptied their cupboards and won’t have much returning the following season. That means unless one of their current ‘05s can return a boat load of picks to help the rebuild, they may be in a long term mess coming out of next season.

In my mind, that scenario is the only scenario that puts them in a position to win a Championship and be a viable Memorial Cup Host. That is a pretty big price tag.

 

[dirty12]

Just remember that age is only a factor if the player himself is good. I’m not suggesting any of the players are bad, just making a subjective point.

The 67’s had Steven Laforme as an 18 year old last year. Gone this year. They traded 19 year old Gill-Shane, 19 year old Thomas Johnston, and 19 year old Teddy Sawyer. None of these players on this Ottawa67’s team were likely to play a significant role because they had better players that were younger. Ottawa has three ‘03s and two ‘02s and are positioned well because they have a strong foundation of players acquired mostly through the draft that form a strong nucleus to build from.

The point is, just because a team has a bunch of 19 year olds, it doesn’t mean they are all good. Many 19 year olds are bottom six types and bottom pairing D-Men On Championship calibre teams.

My point with Niagara has always been that outside of Fimis, they don’t have what you would call a major impact player. Do they have some solid OHLers? YES. If they have a team full of 18 year olds this year that finishes under .500, just because their birth certificate next year says they are 19 doesn’t make them all of a sudden exponentially better. That leap usually happens between their 16 and 17 year old season or maybe their 17 and 18 year old season If they were rookies at 17. It is rare for a marginal or slightly above average 18 year old become a front line type player at 19 On Championship calibre teams.

Klein and Vannetten are likely not even on Niagara next year out of training camp and if they are, they are likely to be insignificant pieces. Who knows about Flores? The team in front of him is kinda poor so tough to say if he can backstop a contender. His numbers in London last year weren’t great and this year the same. The jury is out on the Leblanc’s as to how much of an impact they will have. I think they will be fine though. Not impact but middle roster players and strong contributors. That leaves Fimis, Castle and Dionicio. Those three are the core 19 year olds next year. I really like all three. They will be impact players In my mind.

Ottawa returns Rohrer, Stonehouse, Gerrior, Smyth, Sirman, Mayich, and MacKenzie next year as 19 year olds. That is a more impact group of 19 year olds than Niagara. However, we in Ottawa are looking at next year as a retool year….

In my mind, from this roster, they have three returning D-Men. They need two impact D-Men plus two more decent ones. They have enough depth and power up front but they do need one Major Impact Forward to compliment what is coming back. That means they likely need to add a total of three Impact players to be even in consideration.

If I am the management on Niagara, I am trying to trade two of Dann, Zito, Sirrizzotti or Michaud at the deadline this year. They need the picks. Then in the offseason, try to add the third OA as a D-Man. If they tank a bit this year, they will have a good Import pick. See if they can get an NHL Draft guy at 18 years old, specifically as a D-Man If possible. Flip one of the 1st’s next year with picks for an Impact Forward, some sort of star player. Then use whatever picks left for another Impact player to keep up with the Jones’. If they can do that, then maybe they can be Championship calibre. BUT! They will have emptied their cupboards and won’t have much returning the following season. That means unless one of their current ‘05s can return a boat load of picks to help the rebuild, they may be in a long term mess coming out of next season.

In my mind, that scenario is the only scenario that puts them in a position to win a Championship and be a viable Memorial Cup Host. That is a pretty big price tag.

I think the last time I can remember a team with a high number of high picks from one draft year not being good in their 19 yr old season was Windsor around 2014-15. I think some of the Niagara ‘03 & ‘04 will be a lot better than you believe.
You really didn’t think much of Coe and Russell before last season …Sproule? It looks like it’s going to happen for Vierling. Late to break-out among the high picked is frequent.
I am pretty sure a top six of Copeland-Zito-Sirizzotti and Dann-Fimis-Castle would rip it up next season

 

[Savard18]

We need to change the thread title to “The OMG vs dirty Niagara debate”. I’m curious to see how this one plays out. I’m leaning towards Niagara not being all that great this year but still making the playoffs and then not quite having enough on the bench or in the cupboards for a true MC challenge next year but dirty does bring a solid argument on some stuff that makes me wonder.

 

[OMG67]

I think the last time I can remember a team with a high number of high picks from one draft year not being good in their 19 yr old season was Windsor around 2014-15. I think some of the Niagara ‘03 & ‘04 will be a lot better than you believe.
You really didn’t think much of Coe and Russell before last season …Sproule? It looks like it’s going to happen for Vierling. Late to break-out among the high picked is frequent.
I am pretty sure a top six of Copeland-Zito-Sirizzotti and Dann-Fimis-Castle would rip it up next season

And three returning D-Men!

I’m not saying they can’t do it. I’m saying they pretty much need to devoid themselves of assets to do it without having any assets of consequence to move the following season to rebuild.

Your hypothesis requires a lot to go right. A lot.

 

[dirty12]

We need to change the thread title to “The OMG vs dirty Niagara debate”. I’m curious to see how this one plays out. I’m leaning towards Niagara not being all that great this year but still making the playoffs and then not quite having enough on the bench or in the cupboards for a true MC challenge next year but dirty does bring a solid argument on some stuff that makes me wonder.

I’m not claiming Niagara will be making a title run, just that, that roster is built to contend next season.
I made the same arguments for Flint when then were considered messy, 2nd last, & 2nd overall pick was home sick. I believe Flint was a legit contender when the next season ended abruptly.

 

[dirty12]

And three returning D-Men!

I’m not saying they can’t do it. I’m saying they pretty much need to devoid themselves of assets to do it without having any assets of consequence to move the following season to rebuild.

Your hypothesis requires a lot to go right. A lot.

Rebuilds/re-tools have proved relatively breezy by recent all-in teams that had a couple of OAs the next season. But really, no care should be given to a rebuild until a real shot has been taken.
Niagara can return 5 of 8 rostered D. There may be other options in jr

 

[OMG67]

Rebuilds/re-tools have proved relatively breezy by recent all-in teams that had a couple of OAs the next season. But really, no care should be given to a rebuild until a real shot has been taken.
Niagara can return 5 of 8 rostered D. There may be other options in jr

I need to understand something so I need you to clarify. When you say “built for next season” there is an insinuated argument that they are contending next year. So, from my perspective, when you say that, combined with all the assets they’ve thrown around combined with the Letter of Intent rumoured to have been sent to the CHL to host the Memorial Cup next year, I evaluate the likelihood of their ability to do so successfully. Am I interpreting what you are saying to align with that logical stance or are you simply just suggesting they are making these moves to be a better team next year and this year is somewhat inconsequential to their plan? So their moves shouldn’t be evaluated based on results this year. As well, results next year shouldn’t be measured against competing for a championship? I’m sort of thinking now that is your point and we aren’t talking apples to apples.

 

[OMG67]

Rebuilds/re-tools have proved relatively breezy by recent all-in teams that had a couple of OAs the next season. But really, no care should be given to a rebuild until a real shot has been taken.
Niagara can return 5 of 8 rostered D. There may be other options in jr

With respect to rebuilds, teams usually have a solid set of 18-19-20 year olds when they contend for a championship. The following year, those 18 year olds are 19 and they typically move one or two of those guys plus any excess OAs that they don’t have roster space for (ex Hamilton moving OAs this season).

The problem is Niagara only has three 05’s which will be 19 the year after their run next year. They also don’t have an 06 1st, 3rd or 5th round pick…. Only a 2nd and 4th. So they are even void of potential players to trade the following year. Or, even worse, they don’t have players to even be able to compete!

From where I stand, they quite simply don’t have the asset pool unless Fimis and Castle don’t graduate after their 19 year old season.

I think you are looking at some sort of law of average but not looking deep enough at the leading indicators. Who are they trading in 24-25 season after their memorial cup run in ‘24? I have Waddick, Copeland and Wycisk. Maybe one of Castle or Fimis if they don’t turn pro? I’m not sure the return on those guys is going to come close to trading away what they will still need to trade to get where they wanna go. I don’t see an easy rebuild.