Speculation: 2021 Salary Cap Crunch & Off-Season Thread

[Rschmitz]

Was going to post this in regards to the 3rd line. Joseph scored 12 goals this season and Coleman had 14. Coleman had more assists but Joseph is a decent enough goal scorer to fill that void, he scored 13 his rookie year as well. He's fast and hits on the forecheck, he's not as strong in the defensive zone as Coleman and not as strong in the cycle game. But Coleman will probably cost 3M+ more than what Joseph will next season. Offensively he's better than Goodrow so if we lose him Joseph can make that line a little more offensive but they won't be a shutdown line any longer.

You can always throw Killorn - Cirelli - Gourde together for the shutdown line. Put x - Colton - Stamkos as the other scoring line. That x could be several players depending on what moves we make at the ED and draft. Could give Barre-Boulet a look, Joseph or even a Raddysh or Katchouk.

I have a big issue with Josephs consistency. Sometimes he looks like a good top 6 player and other times he just disappears. If he found some consistency he'd be amazing.

I see where you are going with the Cirelli shutdown line. If we lose Palat, I'd like to see Stamkos moved up. I feel like Stamkos isn't very effective next to Cirelli.

Our lower lines are going to be a mess, but I'm ok with that

 

[Stammertime91]

A 3rd line of either

Goodrow - Gourde - Colton

OR

Joesph - Gourde - Colton

Would be great

Disagree. The only way that 3rd is good is without Joseph. Or, Cooper and the staff get him to to play better defense. If Killorn stays, killer on the 3rd is better. Especially if Colton is there too. If prefer your first option. I used to think Joseph would be a decent replacement for Coleman, but that's a bit of a stretch. Coleman is just that damn good of a two way player . Gonna miss that guy.

 

[NatoGhost]

Keeping Rutta around at this point is complacency. I'd really rather not see JBB try to keep this team together with super glue and duct tape just to lose in the 2nd round year after year while we trade every draft pick and prospect who could potentially help us for yet ANOTHER right pairing defender because Rutta on his own is not enough.

We're gonna lose a lot of guys. Just accept it, bite the bullet and get new ones by selling high and drafting well.

Rutta played well for us. Also we didn't trade to replace him...I kind of understand not wanting to trade futures forever, but were still in our window and just won 2 cups in a row. Why?

 

[NatoGhost]

Killorn: will teams want him now with his broken fibula?
Palat: one year left, easily moveable, imo. Not enough term for Seattle, but a good pickup for playoff teams
Johnson: Two years, had quite the playoff run, most likely will still need a sweetener attached

The hard ones
McDonagh: 32 years old, big part of this team. If Heddy misses some time next year losing McD would leave us wrecked on D. His game should age well (depending on injuries), but he still has 5 years left at 6.75
Gourde: We're losing that important 3rd line that provided us so much energy and clutch scoring. With Gourde you could at least keep his energy into the top 6 or have him anchor a new 3rd line with Colton and Joesph or a cheaply signed Goodrow.

TJ still has 3 years left.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Keeping Rutta around at this point is complacency. I'd really rather not see JBB try to keep this team together with super glue and duct tape just to lose in the 2nd round year after year while we trade every draft pick and prospect who could potentially help us for yet ANOTHER right pairing defender because Rutta on his own is not enough.

We're gonna lose a lot of guys. Just accept it, bite the bullet and get new ones by selling high and drafting well.

Don't be foolish. If you make the playoffs, you can win the Cup.

St. Louis did it. Montreal certainly could have done it, especially if the Isles had squeaked out game 7.

Even if we lose Coleman, Palat and Johnson, we'll still be much better than either of those teams. Given the contract and cap outlook, we'll stay that way until Hedman starts to fade from agree (or someone else in the big four had a majority injury). f***, Kuch added a broken rib to the hip injury and STILL was able to gut to rebuild. Any year that you're solidly playoff-worthy is a year you have a legitimate chance at the Cup. You don't throw those away.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

The concern for next season revolves around how they're able to cope with a very short off-season and Cup hangover, on top of the inevitable roster moves. And that's something I don't envy JBB for. If we were in the weaker conference, I wouldn't worry too much. In the East, though, there's more good teams than there are playoff spots to go around. And that means a tougher path to the Cup as well, though that ended up being no problem this year.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we're just treading water around the deadline and JBB cashes in rather than going all in. Would probably even be advisable, depending on how they look. Whether it looks like they have the juice to push again, or just don't have that gear left in them (at least, relative to the rest of the league) to go for it. 45 playoff games is a ton of wear and tear.

 

[NatoGhost]

The Threepeat Bolts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Rschmitz]

The Threepeat Bolts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think the signing #'s of Goodrow and Savard are way too optimistic. A mid 1st for Palat might be a tad too much too

 

[NatoGhost]

I think the signing #'s of Goodrow and Savard are way too optimistic. A mid 1st for Palat might be a tad too much too

Yeah basically I see those as the deals we can offer them. I could see them accepting them or moving on. Maybe 2.25 for Goodrow if JBB really wants to. Even if it's a 2nd for Palat or a 2nd + something it's not bad. I could see all of Palat/Killorn/Gourde being shopped and we see what the offers are.

 

[JTBF81]

I’d keep palat move out Killorn and johnson

Better to move out Palat now and keep Killorn. Palat will have better trade value now, and then Tampa can get solid trade value for Killorn after next season. If they keep Palat, they lose him for nothing unless they trade him at the TDL, as it is very unlikely they can afford to re-sign him with Point's raiss coming. Moving both now to keep Coleman also doesn't work, as that also mostly uses up all the room for Point. Move Palat now for good value, have one of Joseph or ABB start the year as his replacement in the top 6, then after next year moving Killorn gets more futures and enough room for Point's raise and an additional small re-signing or new ufa signing.

 

[Rschmitz]

Yeah basically I see those as the deals we can offer them. I could see them accepting them or moving on. Maybe 2.25 for Goodrow if JBB really wants to. Even if it's a 2nd for Palat or a 2nd + something it's not bad. I could see all of Palat/Killorn/Gourde being shopped and we see what the offers are.

I'm being overly critical, what you listed makes a lot of sense

 

[Felonious Python]

Wasn't it that Killorn was going to be traded, then word came down that Kuch was out of the regular season?

 

[AHockeyFanatic]

yeah it would help but Stammer is going nowhere.

I think Joseph could fill Coleman's spot. Obviously not same skill level and scoring touch but the rest he can do too

I would argue Joseph may end up being better.

 

[These Are The Days]

Unless we want Murray to bat .1000 for a handful of picks in the next few years, the best thing we can do is make trades similar to how we did for Cernak and give him as much capital as we can. I'm not trying to shit on the guys who just won us a Cup but just about 6 or 7 of any combination of guys we want to keep is gonna eat half our salary cap in no less than 2 years.

Sell high and trade/draft as much cost-controlled talent as you can get your hands on. I'll be damned if we're gonna jump burning hoops of fire so Killorn can stay for like his 10th season.

Build a new core while keeping a select few pieces of the old one





Very late edit: if you wanna keep Gourde and at least Goodrow to put with Colton then you're putting the likes of Stamkos, Cirelli and Sergachev on the market. Point, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasilevskiy alone will cost JUST $35 million after Point's bridge next year if we're lucky and now add $8.5 million to what Stamkos makes AND Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak all making even more in 2 years

You're not only not affording that 3rd line anymore but we don't even know if we have pieces for a new one

 

[Felonious Python]

Unless we want Murray to bat .1000 for a handful of picks in the next few years, the best thing we can do is make trades similar to how we did for Cernak and give him as much capital as we can. I'm not trying to shit on the guys who just won us a Cup but just about 6 or 7 of any combination of guys we want to keep is gonna eat half our salary cap in no less than 2 years.

Sell high and trade/draft as much cost-controlled talent as you can get your hands on. I'll be damned if we're gonna jump burning hoops of fire so Killorn can stay for like his 10th season.

Build a new core while keeping a select few pieces of the old one

What we don't know as fans is who is really available for trade. Unless it's an Eichel or Tarasenko, they don't get much attention in the media, so we tend to look at an overpriced UFA market and think we're done for. (ex. If Andreas Athanasiou can't be signed for under 2.2 million, the only option is to trade Kucherov)

Who are the guys TB has brought in via trade? Cernak, Coleman, Goodrow, McD, Sergachev, & Savard. The only guy to get trade hype was really Savard. When McD talk picked up, I'm not sure, but it didn't feel like there was a sweepstakes for him.

I recall discussions on here talking about Wood, Coleman, etc. from the Devils, but I don't think it was in the media really.

We didn't get warning Cernak, Goodrow, or Sergachev coming at all, as I recall.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Yeah basically I see those as the deals we can offer them. I could see them accepting them or moving on. Maybe 2.25 for Goodrow if JBB really wants to. Even if it's a 2nd for Palat or a 2nd + something it's not bad. I could see all of Palat/Killorn/Gourde being shopped and we see what the offers are.

NJ just signed Siegenthaler for 1.15M, Arizona Lyubuskin for 1.35M, Ottawa Zub for 2.5M, New York Lindgen for 3M all recently and you want to tell me Savard on his probable last chance to cash in takes 1.25M for 1 year? If he wants to stay to win another Cup I can see a discount but closer to 3.25M for 3 years. Goodrow may take that 1.95M to stay here and I'd pay him that if he did.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

 

[NatoGhost]

NJ just signed Siegenthaler for 1.15M, Arizona Lyubuskin for 1.35M, Ottawa Zub for 2.5M, New York Lindgen for 3M all recently and you want to tell me Savard on his probable last chance to cash in takes 1.25M for 1 year? If he wants to stay to win another Cup I can see a discount but closer to 3.25M for 3 years. Goodrow may take that 1.95M to stay here and I'd pay him that if he did.

My thoughts were that Savard had a down year and could play on a 1 year prove it deal, kind of like Shattenkirk did. But his play did pick up quite a bit in the playoffs so maybe it's unreal. If so, we walk away. I pretty much said that in the description of the cap friendly post as well.

"Bolts cap maneuvers to 3peat. If you don't think Savard would sign that prove it contract, I would resign Luke Schenn @800k again or pick up another RD around 1m.
Palat trade could be to other teams and could drop to 2nd rounder(s) as market dictates.
TJ to the Kraken if the 1st is not enough, could add another a prospect."

 

[DFC]

Unless we want Murray to bat .1000 for a handful of picks in the next few years, the best thing we can do is make trades similar to how we did for Cernak and give him as much capital as we can. I'm not trying to shit on the guys who just won us a Cup but just about 6 or 7 of any combination of guys we want to keep is gonna eat half our salary cap in no less than 2 years.

Sell high and trade/draft as much cost-controlled talent as you can get your hands on. I'll be damned if we're gonna jump burning hoops of fire so Killorn can stay for like his 10th season.

Build a new core while keeping a select few pieces of the old one





Very late edit: if you wanna keep Gourde and at least Goodrow to put with Colton then you're putting the likes of Stamkos, Cirelli and Sergachev on the market. Point, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasilevskiy alone will cost JUST $35 million after Point's bridge next year if we're lucky and now add $8.5 million to what Stamkos makes AND Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak all making even more in 2 years

You're not only not affording that 3rd line anymore but we don't even know if we have pieces for a new one

...This is just crazy.

Cups are won mainly by the core of the team. Our core remains the best in the league. And yeah, we're gonna take a step backward. But our step backward still leaves us with a team that can win a cup because Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasy are all playoff gods. And the oldest guy in the group is 30.

You don't "build a new core" when you have a realistic shot at a f***ing dynasty.

 

[HoseEmDown]

My thoughts were that Savard had a down year and could play on a 1 year prove it deal, kind of like Shattenkirk did. But his play did pick up quite a bit in the playoffs so maybe it's unreal. If so, we walk away. I pretty much said that in the description of the cap friendly post as well.

"Bolts cap maneuvers to 3peat. If you don't think Savard would sign that prove it contract, I would resign Luke Schenn @800k again or pick up another RD around 1m.
Palat trade could be to other teams and could drop to 2nd rounder(s) as market dictates.
TJ to the Kraken if the 1st is not enough, could add another a prospect."

Even with a bit of a down year there's no reason to accept that type of deal, he has the track record to get a big deal. Shattenkirk took what he did because he was on a buyout from the Rangers so he was making a lot more than what we were paying him. Savard doesn't have that luxury so will want to get his instead of taking a risk where he could potentially get hurt and miss out on that payday.

 

[DFC]

I honestly think Option 1 is to try to get Stamkos to waive. That said, I think he will refuse. But we could solve almost all of these problems by moving Stamkos and Johnson, and then living without whomever Seattle takes, so I think we should at least try to make that happen. To me, that's easily our best option to keep the team as good as it was in 2020/2021.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

...This is just crazy.

Cups are won mainly by the core of the team. Our core remains the best in the league. And yeah, we're gonna take a step backward. But our step backward still leaves us with a team that can win a cup because Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasy are all playoff gods. And the oldest guy in the group is 30.

You don't "build a new core" when you have a realistic shot at a f***ing dynasty.

I also question just what "core" means in that case. When I think of the core of this team, I think of Hedman, Kucherov, Vasi, Point, and Stamkos (in that 0rder), with strong consideration for McDonagh as well. Obviously Stamkos isn't worth what he's paid but that's an entirely different discussion. But other than McDonagh, who is only up for consideration to be moved this offseason because of the expansion draft and the potential for being left exposed (there would be ZERO trade consideration otherwise, NTC or no NTC), who of those guys is being moved anytime soon? Cores don't comprise half your lineup (when healthy). Guys like Cernak, Sergachev, Cirelli, Palat, Killorn, Gourde...all very good players to have, especially where they are currently slotted into the roster, but, to varying degrees, they're all replaceable. Would rather not move them, but if you have to move anyone, you look there before you encroach upon the players above them.

It's entirely possible he just considers "core" to be bigger than I do. Among those core players, as I see them, none of them should be going anywhere this offseason, and that includes McD. This team doesn't have a realistic chance to contend without McDonagh next season, so unless JBB wants to do a rebuild-on-the-fly instead and thinks the turnaround + long season after two Cup runs is just too much to overcome for 2021-'22, McDonagh needs to be retained.

 

[DFC]

I also question just what "core" means in that case. When I think of the core of this team, I think of Hedman, Kucherov, Vasi, Point, and Stamkos (in that 0rder), with strong consideration for McDonagh as well. Obviously Stamkos isn't worth what he's paid but that's an entirely different discussion. But other than McDonagh, who is only up for consideration to be moved this offseason because of the expansion draft and the potential for being left exposed (there would be ZERO trade consideration otherwise, NTC or no NTC), who of those guys is being moved anytime soon? Cores don't comprise half your lineup (when healthy). Guys like Cernak, Sergachev, Cirelli, Palat, Killorn, Gourde...all very good players to have, especially where they are currently slotted into the roster, but, to varying degrees, they're all replaceable. Would rather not move them, but if you have to move anyone, you look there before you encroach upon the players above them.

It's entirely possible he just considers "core" to be bigger than I do. Among those core players, as I see them, none of them should be going anywhere this offseason, and that includes McD. This team doesn't have a realistic chance to contend without McDonagh next season, so unless JBB wants to do a rebuild-on-the-fly instead and thinks the turnaround + long season after two Cup runs is just too much to overcome for 2021-'22, McDonagh needs to be retained.

IMO our core is four players: Hedman, Kucherov, Point, and Vasilevskiy. Beyond that we have a very, very strong supporting cast, starting with McDonagh. He's like a fringe core player, IMO, but I wouldn't quite include him. That doesn't mean I think we should be okay with losing him. He's probably our 5th most important player and should be treated as such.

I don't know how to include Stamkos when we saw the team win a cup without him, and we saw the team win the cup this year while he was invisible in the final two rounds.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I don't know how to include Stamkos when we saw the team win a cup without him, and we saw the team win the cup this year while he was invisible in the final two rounds.

I mostly include him on the basis of him having been with the organization for 13 years, being the captain, and having an unmovable contract. We probably solve more problems than we create by moving him, but good luck actually doing that. While I didn't necessarily list the core players in order, there was a reason I mentioned Stamkos last. If you did want to argue McD over Stamkos, I wouldn't put up resistance to it.

 

[DFC]

I mostly include him on the basis of him having been with the organization for 13 years, being the captain, and having an unmovable contract. We probably solve more problems than we create by moving him, but good luck actually doing that. While I didn't necessarily list the core players in order, there was a reason I mentioned Stamkos last. If you did want to argue McD over Stamkos, I wouldn't put up resistance to it.

Didn't mean you specifically, but even so, I don't really think tenure can keep a guy on a team that's trying to threepeat. And I don't think moving him would create more problems, if it were a possibility. I think the team understands that something major needs to happen, and it could either be two guys or it could be five guys who leave. As close as they are with Stamkos, I'm guessing they're pretty close with Palat and Killorn too, to say nothing of Johnson, who's almost certainly leaving regardless of who else goes. No matter what we do, it's going to be bittersweet.

Keep in mind, I still think the probability that Stamkos moves is very, very low. I just think it should be the first thing we try before moving on to more damaging options. I don't think it was for nothing that JBB left Stamkos off his list of untouchables last year.