Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects

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My3Sons

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Think of it this way -- the only forwards who play 20+ minute per game are your superstars -- your McDavids and Matthews and Crosbys. But the average second-pairing NHL defender plays over 20 minutes per game -- at a position where the slightest screw up leads to a high-danger opportunity against. These are very important players.

"Low-event" defensemen are often looked because they're not sexy. But they can be very effective. I guess I'm the exception because I'll pay great money to watch Brett Pesce play, but I wouldn't take Gostisbehere on my team if he were offered straight up for a 7th round pick with his full salary retained. The argument could be made that Tony DeAngelo cost the Rangers their playoff series vs. Carolina last year -- his low IQ and almost uncannily low compete level were singularly responsible for I think six goals against in a three game sweep. Would the Rangers have won that series had Jake Slavin and Tony DeAngelo switched jerseys? It's quite possible.

I also believe it's a myth that defense can be taught while offense can not be taught. For every Mark Giordano or Zdeno Chara -- an all-defense D who learns how to score at the NHL level -- you need to look very, very hard to find a defender who begins his career as a defensive liability and learns to become even average in that respect. Maybe Keith Yandle? More often than not, they fizzle out very early when their coaches learn they are not improving at all in their own zone and create more chances against than for -- a la Gostisbehere or DeAngelo or our own Will Butcher. Anyone heard from prodigal offensive defenseman Julius Honka in awhile? Derrick Pouliot, anyone?

Jack Bar is a very good hockey player. He's being painfully under-valued by draft analysts right now, but he's got a very high floor and a pretty good ceiling as a mid-pairing, all situations guy. While he's not quite the smothering force that Brock Faber was last year -- which is why I had Faber higher than almost anyone (I think Cam Robinson had me beat, haha). Faber was questioned because, essentially, he was a team-first defender who refused to take stupid chances with the puck -- even though the offensive skills were clearly on display in the right situations. Fast forward to the 2021 WJC -- Faber was downright dominant, one of the best few D-men in the tourney, while more-regarded players like Broberg or or Poirier or Grans were horror shows or left off their rosters completely.

Im no scout but brains and heart are pretty easy to spot when I watch the games. I’m amazed the scouts miss those qualities so often.
 

StevenToddIves

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Im no scout but brains and heart are pretty easy to spot when I watch the games. I’m amazed the scouts miss those qualities so often.

I remember I was communicating with a draft writer after a Sweden game a few years back, when Bjornfot and Broberg were on the national team together. Bjornfot was rock-solid all game long, super smart in his puck decisions and unbeatable one-on-one. Broberg made two dazzling end-to-end rushes, one of which resulted in an assist off a rebound. He also made about a dozen glaring mistakes and was a pylon defensively, probably singularly responsible for three goals against, if I recall correctly.

Anyway, I was writing that Bjornfot was -- by far -- the best defenseman in the game. This writer wrote back saying I was out of my mind -- Bjornfot was unimpressive to him, but Broberg was absolutely spectacular.

Without getting into too many details, this sums it up in a nutshell for me. Did Broberg make two spectacular plays? Yeah -- when that kid gets a head of steam in open ice, it's almost beautiful to watch. But I think many draft writers get hypnotized by the 13 second highlight video clips and lose track of what actually wins hockey games. It was Bjornfot's smarts and savvy and lunch-pail excellence which anchored that blueline -- in spite of his teammate's proclivity to jump out of position in the search of the next big offensive rush.

Ultimately, I'm still looking for a Brett Pesce highlight video. "Holy crap -- check out that great gap control!" Or all the Vlasic tribute videos when he retires: "Did you see that f---ing poke check??? Wow! Truly elite!"

It's two years after the Bjornfot/Broberg draft. A major draft writer just came out with a top 50 NHL prospects list with Broberg in the top 10 -- despite a so-so season in Sweden and one of the most disastrous WJCs in recent memory for a high profile defender -- while Bjornfot was left off completely, despite yet another rock-solid season and being the best defender -- by far -- for Sweden in the WJC.

I don't know what the answer is. I feel the Devils did a nice job two years ago taking defensive LDs Okhotyuk, Misyul and Vukojevic and then trading for Bahl in the Hall trade -- which now looks like absolute robbery by a shrewd Devils front office over a completely lost-at-sea Arizona front office. But the Devils remain thin at RD, so I will continue touting players like Jack Bar and Vincent Iorio as second/third round targets for New Jersey.
 

StevenToddIves

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@StevenToddIves Would you take Jesper Wallstedt or Aatu Räty with the Islander pick if another of them is somehow available?

Either one of those two players would likely be the best overall player so late in the first round, so yes I would. But keep in mind the odds of such a scenario are quite slim.

Wallstedt is quite simply one of the top 3 goalies to come out of the draft in the past half-decade. Several teams drafting early in 2021 very much need such a prospect, like Los Angeles or San Jose. As far as Raty goes, I don't understand the criticism he has faced. We're talking a two-way, second-line center with size, skating and 60+ point potential. What's not to like?
 
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TheDuke93

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Think of it this way -- the only forwards who play 20+ minute per game are your superstars -- your McDavids and Matthews and Crosbys. But the average second-pairing NHL defender plays over 20 minutes per game -- at a position where the slightest screw up leads to a high-danger opportunity against. These are very important players.

"Low-event" defensemen are often looked because they're not sexy. But they can be very effective. I guess I'm the exception because I'll pay great money to watch Brett Pesce play, but I wouldn't take Gostisbehere on my team if he were offered straight up for a 7th round pick with his full salary retained. The argument could be made that Tony DeAngelo cost the Rangers their playoff series vs. Carolina last year -- his low IQ and almost uncannily low compete level were singularly responsible for I think six goals against in a three game sweep. Would the Rangers have won that series had Jake Slavin and Tony DeAngelo switched jerseys? It's quite possible.

I also believe it's a myth that defense can be taught while offense can not be taught. For every Mark Giordano or Zdeno Chara -- an all-defense D who learns how to score at the NHL level -- you need to look very, very hard to find a defender who begins his career as a defensive liability and learns to become even average in that respect. Maybe Keith Yandle? More often than not, they fizzle out very early when their coaches learn they are not improving at all in their own zone and create more chances against than for -- a la Gostisbehere or DeAngelo or our own Will Butcher. Anyone heard from prodigal offensive defenseman Julius Honka in awhile? Derrick Pouliot, anyone?

Jack Bar is a very good hockey player. He's being painfully under-valued by draft analysts right now, but he's got a very high floor and a pretty good ceiling as a mid-pairing, all situations guy. While he's not quite the smothering force that Brock Faber was last year -- which is why I had Faber higher than almost anyone (I think Cam Robinson had me beat, haha). Faber was questioned because, essentially, he was a team-first defender who refused to take stupid chances with the puck -- even though the offensive skills were clearly on display in the right situations. Fast forward to the 2021 WJC -- Faber was downright dominant, one of the best few D-men in the tourney, while more-regarded players like Broberg or or Poirier or Grans were horror shows or left off their rosters completely.
It seems so damn simple but when you really think about it guys that play great defense are almost impossible to acquire yet we always see 40p + defensemen with an attacked headline of "What's wrong with Player X." While a guy like Marc-Edouard Vlasic is basically allergic to points you could argue he's been a top 10dman for over a 5 year stretch during his prime.
 

TheDuke93

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Either one of those two players would likely be the best overall player so late in the first round, so yes I would. But keep in mind the odds of such a scenario are quite slim.

Wallstedt is quite simply one of the top 3 goalies to come out of the draft in the past half-decade. Several teams drafting early in 2021 very much need such a prospect, like Los Angeles or San Jose. As far as Raty goes, I don't understand the criticism he has faced. We're talking a two-way, second-line center with size, skating and 60+ point potential. What's not to like?
Underrated shot from everything I have seen too.
 
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RememberTheName

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The Chicago Steel's prospect development is absolutely fantastic. They have four guys I absolutely love this year: Coronato, Samoskevich, Ufko, and Doan. Doan has especially surprised me with his awesome play this year. He is such a hard worker on the ice, really great defensively, and just looks solid all around every time I've seen him.

I'd say he's definitely worthy of a late second to early third round pick. To me, he is flashing the potential of a solid middle-six winger who can kill penalties.
 

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Either one of those two players would likely be the best overall player so late in the first round, so yes I would. But keep in mind the odds of such a scenario are quite slim.

Wallstedt is quite simply one of the top 3 goalies to come out of the draft in the past half-decade. Several teams drafting early in 2021 very much need such a prospect, like Los Angeles or San Jose. As far as Raty goes, I don't understand the criticism he has faced. We're talking a two-way, second-line center with size, skating and 60+ point potential. What's not to like?
Draft lists are one thing but not going to WJC U20 this year after going in 2019-20 had to sting. And his Kärpät coach was an assistant on the National team, so that’s a little awkward.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Draft lists are one thing but not going to WJC U20 this year after going in 2019-20 had to sting. And his Kärpät coach was an assistant on the National team, so that’s a little awkward.

Agreed. But though Raty has certainly slipped -- he may have been the consensus #1 for 2021 one year ago, and now he's borderline top 10 -- I still cannot envision any scenario where he falls to the #25 range. The skill set is just too great in a draft class which is not overwhelmingly strong at center.
 

StevenToddIves

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2021 Draft Profile:

C/LW Jack O'Brien, Lincoln USHL
I feel this is another player who has been hurt a lot by the pandemic. He looked very impressive at times last year, playing with Seth Jarvis on the Portland Winterhawks. There was reason to believe that O'Brien could work his way into the late first round. He's a 6'0-155 center with a very good tool kit across the board and a good deal of intelligence with the puck. But he's really struggled on a very poor Lincoln Stars team with not a lot of talent around him. This leads me to wonder -- is O'Brien more of a passenger, or is he a good young player who -- like many good young players -- gets frustrated by losing and playing with sub-par talent to the detriment of his overall game?

I'd say O'Brien is an intriguing prospect on several levels. His intelligence and calm with the puck are certainly plus attributes. He really lacks a physical weakness except for strength -- he's reed-thin and needs a good deal of time in the training room, especially if he hopes to stay at center, his primary position. O'Brien is a soft passer who can thread the needle through traffic. He's got soft hands and is extremely calm with the puck, an attribute I always look for in young centers and defensemen especially. He thinks the game well in all three zones, there is reason to believe he has upside as a two-way forward in the NHL. O'Brien skates well and is a decent shooter, though I'd call him pass-first as a player. If he has one aspect to work on, it's that often he turns from the heat and heads to the perimeter when you'd like to see him take more pucks to the net, though that could be an element of needing to build his physical strength in the training room.

Overall, O'Brien's skill set is very intriguing. But I cannot say he's enjoyed a good draft-eligible season in Lincoln, the production is just not where you would like it to be. But if O'Brien were to fall to the 3rd round or later, I think he'd be a very intriguing option for New Jersey. In terms of left-shot centers who could also slot to the LW, I feel O'Brien possesses far more upside than a couple of similar players the Devils drafted last year in Shlaine and Baumgartner. O'Brien is an intriguing an talented prospect who comes with risk, but that risk diminishes the further he falls in the draft. I wouldn't take him in the high second round where some have him ranked due to these reasons, but he definitely has sleeper potential.
 
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TheDuke93

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Agreed. But though Raty has certainly slipped -- he may have been the consensus #1 for 2021 one year ago, and now he's borderline top 10 -- I still cannot envision any scenario where he falls to the #25 range. The skill set is just too great in a draft class which is not overwhelmingly strong at center.
Granted I have only seen highlights of his and haven't watched any Shift-by-shift videos yet but his talent certainly seems within the range of a top 10 pick and his shot selection makes me think he has unreal IQ.
 

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Agreed. But though Raty has certainly slipped -- he may have been the consensus #1 for 2021 one year ago, and now he's borderline top 10 -- I still cannot envision any scenario where he falls to the #25 range. The skill set is just too great in a draft class which is not overwhelmingly strong at center.
I agree, and some people seem to view his slipping as him “sucking” or as a sign of him being a sure future bust.

That’s not news to you though, you’ve obviously experienced the “I can prove how smart I am by vehemently pointing out all the future loser busts first” style of internet scouting way more. The logic of it drives me crazy though. Yes, Scout Genius, it’s enormously hard to make the NHL and there literally isn’t enough jobs for all these kids so many won’t make it and only a few will be stars. Do you want focus more on how and why players could make it in the context of their skills? No? Ok. You can go back to telling other people their prospect lists suck I guess.
 

StevenToddIves

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I agree, and some people seem to view his slipping as him “sucking” or as a sign of him being a sure future bust.

That’s not news to you though, you’ve obviously experienced the “I can prove how smart I am by vehemently pointing out all the future loser busts first” style of internet scouting way more. The logic of it drives me crazy though. Yes, Scout Genius, it’s enormously hard to make the NHL and there literally isn’t enough jobs for all these kids so many won’t make it and only a few will be stars. Do you want focus more on how and why players could make it in the context of their skills? No? Ok. You can go back to telling other people their prospect lists suck I guess.

I agree with you here. Several writers are very tough on these kids while wiping the Cheet-O dust from their fingers to type out another prospect evisceration. I don't understand it.
 

StevenToddIves

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2021 Draft Profile:

LW Tristan Broz, Fargo USHL
On my relentless search for RDs and scoring LWs for the Devils mid and late round picks, I became very intrigued with this terrifically-named kid out of Minnesota. To me, Broz has shown the most natural, high-upside ability of any forward on the Fargo Force this year, and we're talking about a team with a couple NHL picks (Aaron Huglen, Austen Wong). He's committed to an excellent University of Minnesota program for the fall and has been mostly under-the-radar with most scouting services, though his mix of natural ability and PPG production could see him hit a few second-round ratings by Draft Day.

Broz is a 6'0-180 LW who has also seen a little time at center. He's a pass-first player who likes to possess the puck, create time for himself with his patience and nice set of hands, and then thread crisp, accurate passes to his line-mates. His skills are intriguing across the board -- I'd say he's a good skater, an adept puck-handler and an all-around smart presence on the ice, especially in the offensive zone. His finest attribute is clearly his vision -- this is a talented kid who is absolutely lethal in space.

Broz has a bit of an uneven compete level. When battling for the puck, he shows off some nice strength and tenacity, winning the lion's share of his battles. But sometimes, away from the puck, he can float a bit. He also prefers to make plays from the perimeter rather than go to the net. When he's playing center I'm not too critical of it -- after all, his greatest strength is as a playmaker -- but he spends more time on the wing, and you'd like to see him get a bit greasier.

Where Broz intrigues me is that you could be talking about a kid with 2nd-line type skills and physical attributes, and with the lack of hype it's possible he'll be available in the mid-to-late rounds. For the Devils, they are looking more for power players and finishers on the wing, but Tristan Broz is still a very significant talent who is being undervalued to this point. I feel he's the type of player who can potentially take some big steps at the University of Minnesota and make a lot of us in the draft-writing industry look pretty dumb for overlooking him.
 

StevenToddIves

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LD Jack Peart, Fargo USHL

This is a very intriguing defense prospect who is a likely candidate to still be available in the 3rd/4th round. A 6'0-180 defender with very good 4-directional skating ability and good puck skills. Peart's specialty is zone entries and zone exits, and as such he projects into a new-age puck-possession defenseman. He uses deception in tandem with his speed and very good set of hands to create lanes and space for himself, which he can burst through into open ice which only he has anticipated.

Like many players of this ilk, Peart can learn to better choose his spots. Sometimes he can be guilty of trying to do too much by himself when he's in trouble, when chipping the puck off the boards would be the better option. So, he's definitely a bit risky in terms of creating a few dangerous turnovers to the opposition. But Peart shows generally good hockey sense and I feel, if tempered to a degree, he is certainly a mid-round sleeper with bottom-4 NHL potential.

Once in the offensive zone, Peart shows some nice creativity with the puck. He possesses very good offensive awareness and poise with the puck. His shot is decent, but not a factor in rating him in either direction. His excellent on-ice awareness bleeds into the defensive side of his game. Though not shut-down guy, I like Peart's defensive acuity -- I find he plays with good positioning and anticipation and has a nice, active stick and commendable compete level. Peart is not to be confused with a physical defender but he's willing to battle and pretty good in this respect.

I'm not sure where Jack Peart would fit into the Devils depth chart, where they are loaded with prospects at LD. It bears some mentioning that most of the Devils LD depth is with defensively-oriented players -- the only offensive-oriented LD in the prospect pool is probably Ethan Edwards, and I would say Jack Peart is a superior prospect. I would certainly strongly consider him, especially if he fell to the 4th round and beyond.
 

StevenToddIves

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STI gets upset when we trade away his draft picks :)

I'm happy with this deal.

Though it is somewhat unusual for a team in "sell mode" to be trading away draft picks, Siegenthaler is only 23 and offers the Devils a rock-solid defensive guy with good skates and size who should be re-signed in the off-season at a very reasonable rate (he's an RFA currently making $800k). The Devils still have picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, in addition to their very valuable pair of first-round picks. More picks should be coming with possible moves of Murray, Butcher, Dell and (unfortunately, in my mind) Kulikov.
 

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I'm happy with this deal.

Though it is somewhat unusual for a team in "sell mode" to be trading away draft picks, Siegenthaler is only 23 and offers the Devils a rock-solid defensive guy with good skates and size who should be re-signed in the off-season at a very reasonable rate (he's an RFA currently making $800k). The Devils still have picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, in addition to their very valuable pair of first-round picks. More picks should be coming with possible moves of Murray, Butcher, Dell and (unfortunately, in my mind) Kulikov.

Merrill just went for a 5th and sincerely hope Fitz does not trade Kulikov for that. It's undignified and unworthy of the season he's had, and I'd rather have him finish out the season with the team at that price. Of course, adding Siegenthaler makes that less likely. Oh well.
 
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StevenToddIves

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2021 Draft Profile:

LW Matthew Knies, Tri-City USHL

This is a very intriguing power forward prospect for Devils fans to know. Knies is 6'3-205 with pretty good skating ability and an uncommonly good set of hands for a kid with so much natural power. He's the "if he can improve a few things, he can become very good" type of prospect normally found in the 2nd/3rd rounds. For instance, his skating. Knies can work up pretty good top speeds but he has problems with acceleration and balance. He's an athletic enough kid that his skating can potentially round into a plus tool, especially considering his size. He's headed to the University of Minnesota in the fall, where he has a lot of room to grow in an excellent athletic program.

Knies plays a smart and aware game with some pretty nifty passing ability Unlike most kids in power-forward bodies, I'd say he's a pass-first player. But he knows his strength and is willing and able to drive to the net. Knies is tough to beat in the dirty areas and brings the same level of competitiveness to the defensive side of his game. His smarts and ability to read the play are good enough that Tri-City often uses him on the PK, as well as the "go-to-the-net-guy" on the PP.

Again, this is a player whose warts are manageable and fixable. He's a Phoenix, AZ native and did not start playing with high-level coaching, teammates and opposition until 2019. This is what makes him scream out "draft sleeper" to me. You're looking at a kid with tremendous natural ability and, given three years to iron the kinks out at the U. of Minnesota, could really turn into a nice power forward for your middle-6. He's a kid who may have more offensive potential than most people realize, especially if he can tweak a couple of bugs in his skating technique which may be holding him back. Like I said -- he's actually a good skater once he gets going. It's getting going which can be improved, as well as the edge-work.

Knies is a player I would be paying attention to as easrly as the second round, where the Devils are likely to be picking in the 50s with the Islanders pick. With his size, smarts and hands Knees could be gone far earlier. But were he to fall to the 3rd round, I feel Knies would be a potential steal from here on out. The Devils sorely need some power forwards in the system, and Matthew Knies has intriguing potential in this respect.
 

thethinglonger

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Thanks for posting this. Really happy with how this one turned out. It should be noted that Shattuck St Mary's is USHS-Prep level competition and this particular game was a match against the Chicago Mission U18, part of the HPHL...so not exactly top-notch competition, but still nothing to sniff at.

That being said, Morrow put on an absolute clinic this match. His stickhandling, skating, and read ability were on full display here. His ability to create space for himself with a juke or a stickhandling move was unbelievable. I can't wait to watch more footage because I was blown away here. I'm hoping to find some games where he played against tougher competition, especially since USHS-Prep is tough to gauge, but by this video alone he has some very high offensive potential.
 
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