If the draft were today, the Devils would draft #7. The odds of Luke Hughes being around at #7 are not especially high.
Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects
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If the draft were today, the Devils would draft #7. The odds of Luke Hughes being around at #7 are not especially high.
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
Not gonna lie, I kinda hope that Hughes is gone by our pick. Don't want to have to worry about appeasing Jack if there happens to be someone or some players we like more on our board.
Seeing Fitz pick Holtz, though, and then seemingly say they picked for need (some of the comments he made post-picking Holtz rubbed me the wrong way, kind of made me believe that their judgment was clouded by the fact that they needed a really good shooter in the organization), I guarantee he is drooling over the opportunity to draft Luke.
Seeing Fitz pick Holtz, though, and then seemingly say they picked for need (some of the comments he made post-picking Holtz rubbed me the wrong way, kind of made me believe that their judgment was clouded by the fact that they needed a really good shooter in the organization), I guarantee he is drooling over the opportunity to draft Luke.
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Like I said, Buium is an extremely intriguing prospect, and not one you'll need to use a pick in the first 3 rounds on. I have a saying: "beware the one-weakness player". What I mean by this is, when a player is literally excelling in all areas of the game but extremely lacking in one, they have successfully adapted their games to the singular weaknesses.
Think of Dave Andreychuk -- one of the slowest skaters in NHL history, in my book. Or Theo Fleury, who was tiny in an era where the average NHL-er was like 6'1-210. Or Adam Oates, who had one of the weakest shots in the league. And so on.
I'm not saying Buium is destined to be an all-time great like those players, but I am saying this is an incredibly smart player with a tool-kit full of intriguing skills and just absurd physical strength. If you watch a Sioux City kid, you notice right away how cerebral Buium is in his approach to all aspects of the game. I think his on-ice awareness is well ahead of Edwards, whom the Devils took in the 4th round last year. So, the NJ scouts have certainly gotten a good look at Buium. Hopefully they will take good notice of the skills Buium possesses and not simply focus on the one skill which Buium lacks.
I know this is heresy, but I think the idea that skating is the fundamental and indispensable skill in hockey... is wrong. I love watching Conor McDavid and Jack Hughes fly around the ice, it's beautiful, and they use their skating abilities to great advantage.
But just like you can have a slower but effective soccer player or basketball player, a player that's not the greatest skater can still be very effective if they have good anticipation, positioning, and other tools to make up for it.
Who was the better skater in 2018, Pat Maroon or Michael Grabner? Who ended up helping the team more?
I feel as the speed of the game increased, skating ability has become more paramount for defensemen. However, elite NHL D over the past decade of NHL play are not exclusively good skaters -- Chara, Weber, Giordano for example. And again -- Buium is not a kid you're taking a chance on in the 2nd round. You can wait until the 4th or 5th, and come away with a kid with extremely intriguing potential.
2021 Draft Profile:
C Samuel Helenius, JYP FIN
One of my favorite draft writers is Steve Kournianos at thedraftanalyst.com. So, when Mr. Kournianos ranked Helenius in his 1st round, I had to pay attention. Helenius had been getting some buzz as a second round pick in several circles -- after all he's a 6'6 center playing in the Finnish Liiga as a teenager and putting up solid numbers.
Helenius is not simply physically big, he plays with a huge compete level and very intimidating physicality. He throws his weight around. In my opinion, this alone will see him drafted by the end of the 2nd round in 2021 -- we're talking about a young player who will probably be a 6'6-230 monolith in his NHL prime, as he has a very projectable frame. He's pretty aware defensively, as well, which is what NHL scouts really seem to desire in their big centers. Helenius adds more to the tool box than just size, power and compete -- he can absolutely blast the puck.
The more you watch Helenius, however, the more you realize he needs to work on. Helenius is a decent passer, but pressure can force him to rush his passes, which make them both inaccurate and, often, ill-advised. Quite simply, Helenius has what I would call the opposite of soft hands. I've seen him fumble the puck on more than one occasion with absolutely no pressure on him from any perceivable direction. It's sometimes like a ghost is following him around and swatting the puck off his stick.
Helenius is what I would call neither a high-IQ nor low-IQ player. He knows the game and is pretty good positionally, but he's best playing a pretty simple north-south style and not trying to fool anyone.
Ultimately, I'll say Helenius is like a lower-skill version of Brian Boyle. He's worth drafting and certainly possesses pro potential, but I'm not sure he's a gamble I would take in the second round, where he's likely to go in real time. If for some reason Helenius fell to the 5th/6th rounds, he's definitely a player I'd pay attention to in that range.
C Samuel Helenius, JYP FIN
One of my favorite draft writers is Steve Kournianos at thedraftanalyst.com. So, when Mr. Kournianos ranked Helenius in his 1st round, I had to pay attention. Helenius had been getting some buzz as a second round pick in several circles -- after all he's a 6'6 center playing in the Finnish Liiga as a teenager and putting up solid numbers.
Helenius is not simply physically big, he plays with a huge compete level and very intimidating physicality. He throws his weight around. In my opinion, this alone will see him drafted by the end of the 2nd round in 2021 -- we're talking about a young player who will probably be a 6'6-230 monolith in his NHL prime, as he has a very projectable frame. He's pretty aware defensively, as well, which is what NHL scouts really seem to desire in their big centers. Helenius adds more to the tool box than just size, power and compete -- he can absolutely blast the puck.
The more you watch Helenius, however, the more you realize he needs to work on. Helenius is a decent passer, but pressure can force him to rush his passes, which make them both inaccurate and, often, ill-advised. Quite simply, Helenius has what I would call the opposite of soft hands. I've seen him fumble the puck on more than one occasion with absolutely no pressure on him from any perceivable direction. It's sometimes like a ghost is following him around and swatting the puck off his stick.
Helenius is what I would call neither a high-IQ nor low-IQ player. He knows the game and is pretty good positionally, but he's best playing a pretty simple north-south style and not trying to fool anyone.
Ultimately, I'll say Helenius is like a lower-skill version of Brian Boyle. He's worth drafting and certainly possesses pro potential, but I'm not sure he's a gamble I would take in the second round, where he's likely to go in real time. If for some reason Helenius fell to the 5th/6th rounds, he's definitely a player I'd pay attention to in that range.
2021 Draft Profile:
LD Artyom Grushnikov, Hamilton OHL
This is going to be my worst write-up yet. Quite frankly, the pandemic has prevented Grushnikov from playing at all this year. Grushnikov is one of those players who really needed this season of development, and I feel it has hurt his progression and draft stock as much as any player in the entire 2021 draft class. Conversely, this is why I feel compelled to write him up. Grushnikov is a big (6'2-175) defensive-minded D with very good 4-directional skating ability, excellent defensive awareness, and pretty solid puck skills -- and a kid who could be available in the 6th or 7th rounds due to his inactivity in his draft-eligible season.
I'm using my notes from last year to write this, and there aren't too many. It's mostly stuff like "solid play Grush." and "nice stick Grush." and "Grushnikov -- player to track next year". He's a kid who is very, very good positionally and defensively. He's calm with the puck, if not savvy. Pretty good shot and passing, but very conservative in his offensive thinking. It's possible that he could have some offensive upside (based on his tool kit) if he were more assertive in that aspect of the game. Hamilton would have given him a great opportunity to exercise this, but alas -- the f---ing pandemic.
So, here we are. A really subpar write-up of a toolsy defenseman who, in my mind, could be a 2nd round talent who could be available in the very late rounds. A potential value pick for a team which really does its scouting homework.
LD Artyom Grushnikov, Hamilton OHL
This is going to be my worst write-up yet. Quite frankly, the pandemic has prevented Grushnikov from playing at all this year. Grushnikov is one of those players who really needed this season of development, and I feel it has hurt his progression and draft stock as much as any player in the entire 2021 draft class. Conversely, this is why I feel compelled to write him up. Grushnikov is a big (6'2-175) defensive-minded D with very good 4-directional skating ability, excellent defensive awareness, and pretty solid puck skills -- and a kid who could be available in the 6th or 7th rounds due to his inactivity in his draft-eligible season.
I'm using my notes from last year to write this, and there aren't too many. It's mostly stuff like "solid play Grush." and "nice stick Grush." and "Grushnikov -- player to track next year". He's a kid who is very, very good positionally and defensively. He's calm with the puck, if not savvy. Pretty good shot and passing, but very conservative in his offensive thinking. It's possible that he could have some offensive upside (based on his tool kit) if he were more assertive in that aspect of the game. Hamilton would have given him a great opportunity to exercise this, but alas -- the f---ing pandemic.
So, here we are. A really subpar write-up of a toolsy defenseman who, in my mind, could be a 2nd round talent who could be available in the very late rounds. A potential value pick for a team which really does its scouting homework.
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thethinglonger
Castron & Crew
Either way I'll need to dig through your posts to see what players to catch up on for shift-by-shift videos. You've been burning through write-ups!
2021 Draft Profile:
LW Ayrton Martino, Omaha USHL
Now that I've written up the lion's share of consensus first-round picks for the 2021 draft, I'm going to be writing up a lot of players of particular interest to the Devils -- who need anything RD and high-upside LW scorers. Martino is a likely second-round pick who plays with first-round caliber speed and skill. This kid just lives to create offense, and plays with outstanding offensive instincts at a dizzying pace.
The Toronto native is certainly a project. He's a bit small at 5'10-165 and needs to build core strength over the next few seasons at Clarkson University, where he is committed. His defensive game can be best described as "nonexistent" at the moment. His compete level and hockey IQ are completely schizophrenic -- in the offensive zone, he's wicked smart and intense in his all-around effort. In the defensive zone, he's dreamy and lackadaisical, almost bored waiting for a teammate to collect the puck so he can go back on offense.
If this is why Martino is not a first-round pick, it also plays into why he's a great chance to take in the 2nd or early 3rd rounds. Because his offensive play is simply dazzling. Martino is an outstanding skater who accelerates in a flash. He knows very well how to use any space given to him. A defenseman with a bad gap on him is burned and undressed in the time it takes you to figure out how to spell his first name. Martino adds to this an excellent set of hands capable of a litany of moves, terrific vision and passing acuity and an accurate and quick-release shot.
Martino is especially adept at zone entries and will use this to be an extremely effective possession player at the professional level. That is to say, if he can piece together enough of a 200-foot game to play in the NHL -- we must realize that there is some risk here. But this comes with significant reward -- Martino has absolutely shredded the close-checking USHL to the tune of 18 goes and 53 points in just 38 games thus far this year.
The Devils need top 6 LWs with high-end scoring ability to compliment their emerging elite center duo of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Artyon Martino possesses this type of upside. As such, he's a player to watch for the 2021 draft, especially if he falls to the late 2nd round or early 3rd where NJ possesses picks.
LW Ayrton Martino, Omaha USHL
Now that I've written up the lion's share of consensus first-round picks for the 2021 draft, I'm going to be writing up a lot of players of particular interest to the Devils -- who need anything RD and high-upside LW scorers. Martino is a likely second-round pick who plays with first-round caliber speed and skill. This kid just lives to create offense, and plays with outstanding offensive instincts at a dizzying pace.
The Toronto native is certainly a project. He's a bit small at 5'10-165 and needs to build core strength over the next few seasons at Clarkson University, where he is committed. His defensive game can be best described as "nonexistent" at the moment. His compete level and hockey IQ are completely schizophrenic -- in the offensive zone, he's wicked smart and intense in his all-around effort. In the defensive zone, he's dreamy and lackadaisical, almost bored waiting for a teammate to collect the puck so he can go back on offense.
If this is why Martino is not a first-round pick, it also plays into why he's a great chance to take in the 2nd or early 3rd rounds. Because his offensive play is simply dazzling. Martino is an outstanding skater who accelerates in a flash. He knows very well how to use any space given to him. A defenseman with a bad gap on him is burned and undressed in the time it takes you to figure out how to spell his first name. Martino adds to this an excellent set of hands capable of a litany of moves, terrific vision and passing acuity and an accurate and quick-release shot.
Martino is especially adept at zone entries and will use this to be an extremely effective possession player at the professional level. That is to say, if he can piece together enough of a 200-foot game to play in the NHL -- we must realize that there is some risk here. But this comes with significant reward -- Martino has absolutely shredded the close-checking USHL to the tune of 18 goes and 53 points in just 38 games thus far this year.
The Devils need top 6 LWs with high-end scoring ability to compliment their emerging elite center duo of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Artyon Martino possesses this type of upside. As such, he's a player to watch for the 2021 draft, especially if he falls to the late 2nd round or early 3rd where NJ possesses picks.
I'm trying to be a part of the Devils HFBoards pages becoming a top-notch draft-day resource. Also, the pandemic has completely wrecked my once quasi-epic social life. Let me know if there's anyone you want me to write up. Chances are I've watched them and taken notes at some point. Hell, I just wrote up Grushnikov -- albeit horribly -- even though I haven't seen him play all year.
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It's amazing what you can do with 2 first round picks
Emperoreddy
Show Me What You Got!
2021 Draft Profile:
C/LW Joshua Roy, Sherbrooke QMJHL
Roy is one of the most difficult players in the 2021 class to assess. While he possesses some standout, elite tools which make him seem like an absolute steal in the 2nd round where he finds his consensus ranking, the 6'0-190 forward also has some serious blemishes on his overall game, some of which directly counteract his finest abilities.
Let's start with the good. Roy is an outstanding puck-distributor. His passing, vision, hands and offensive intelligence are all absolutely outstanding attributes. This is the player who needs a proverbial inch to take a mile -- he can thread sweet sauces through the smallest lanes, he can dangle to create time and space, and he sees the openings before they open. On the PP, he is absolutely lethal -- this is a kid who absolutely excels in space.
But then you also must be aware of the bad. This is a kid who is great with the puck, but not so great without it. He is weak in puck retrieval, and does not like to spend time in the dirty areas. He can float and be a perimeter player. His defensive game is not strong. He can be predictable -- he has a couple of really good moves which will work once, but then he tries them again and again when the defense is expecting it. He also has physical weaknesses -- foremost is that he is an average skater, which really complicates the fact that he is not exactly what you would call a "high compete" player. Roy's shot also needs work, which complicates the fact that he can be predictable and is certainly a pass-first player.
I've seen Sherbrooke games where Roy is the best player on the ice for either team. When he is on his game, he can dominate the flow of the game in the offensive zone with his exceptional stick-handling and play-making. I have also seen games where the only time you realize Roy is even playing is when Sherbrooke goes on the man advantage.
Ultimately, Roy is the rare player who is near-elite in terms of hockey IQ but still somehow below average in compete level. This extreme disparity in intangibles makes it very difficult to project his future. A kid this smart -- you just hope he flips the switch and hits the next level. He certainly has the tools to be a second-line player at the professional level -- you can't teach the aspects of the game he shines in. But at the moment, it's difficult for me to justify a top 50 ranking for a player who seems to spend as much energy avoiding getting hit as he does in the defensive zone. I'll probably rank Roy somewhere in my 3rd round. If he were to fall to the later rounds, Joshua Roy would certainly be worth a flyer on the basis of his vision and talent. But someone will fall in love with that aspect of this player and likely draft him sooner than that.
Luke Hughes will likely not be available with either one of those picks, and this is not the draft to trade up from any one of the top 7 slots.
I've already written up Iorio and I'm working on a write up for Jack Bar. I'll try to get it out tomorrow.
Your write up last year on Langembrunner’s kid was good as was your report on Persson.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
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There is not a consensus #1, but Owen Power is the closest thing available in my mind. He's got a high floor, and no discernible weakness while being 6'6 with excellent skates and very good offensive abilities. There might be people who like other players better, but I don't think there will be any draft analysts or scouts worth their salt who don't like Power.
2021 Draft Profile:
RD Jack Bar, Chicago USHL
We often forget that the two greatest physical tools in hockey are the mind and the heart. We get caught up in kids who can dangle the puck and skate at exceptional speeds -- as we should. But we should not forget that an incredibly smart kid who plays with passion every shift is far less likely to fall below our expectations than a kid with a lot of flash who plays with questionable decision making and hustle.
As such, Jack Bar may be the most under-appreciated RD in the entire 2021 draft. Playing for an incredibly talented Chicago Steel team, Bar has been lost in the blinding luminescence of your stars like Samoskevich and Coronato, but the argument could be made that Bar is more crucial to the team success than anyone. I've watched more Chicago Steel hockey this year than every before -- partially because they're so good and fun to watch (happy face), but also because there's unfortunately no OHL (sad face). I don't think I've seen Bar make an inexcusable mental error even once. I don't think I've seen Bar take a single shift off, even when Chicago has huge leads over weaker competition late. There's a good argument that he's the best D in the entire USHL right now.
What makes him so good? Bar is an extremely projectable 6'3-190 with plus tools across the board. Without a singular standout tool, he's good to very good at everything that matters: skating, defensive acuity, shooting, passing, physicality, awareness/anticipation, positioning, puck handling, you name it. You're never going to see him flash a tool which wows you out of your seat, but you're also never going to be like: "Bar really needs to work on his [fill in the blank]". He's just good across the board.
I probably discuss the mythical properties of hockey IQ and compete level more than any other draft writer or analyst you will ever read. Quite simply, they play up every other tool imaginable. If a defenseman has very good but not great skates (as Bar does), he can get beat outside or on rushes by faster forwards, if he is even slightly out of position, off on his gaps or lazy in his approach. Bar is always in the right place, always playing with his head up, always anticipating and quick to react. Quite simply, he plays faster than he is because the fastest thing about him is his brain. I could make the same argument about every tool. Are there flashier passers than Bar? Sure, but Bar makes the right pass nearly 100% of the time and rarely misses his mark. Are there harder shooters? Definitely, but Bar is more concerned with getting the puck to the net than hitting glass or shin-pads. I could go on forever, because he's just a really smart kid. Bar is committed to Harvard, and from what I read about this kid's incredible academic acuity, he's a kid who would be going to Harvard whether or not he played hockey. No one who has played with Jack Bar or coached him seems to have anything to say about him which is not positively glowing.
Normally, I'll finish up a profile with what a player needs to work on in order to succeed at the next level. With Bar, it's really just that he needs to continue to gain experience and develop and fill into his 6'3 frame. It's possible a good skating coach could speed up his first few steps and take him to another level. Jack Bar will never be a first-pairing 50+ point scorer, but there's a very good chance you're drafting a second-pairing, all-situations, team-first stud with no discernible weakness.
This makes his consensus ranking baffling to me. I have Jack Bar right outside my first round with the chance to crack the top 32 by my final rankings. But the highest I've seen him anywhere else is in the 50s, and I've seen him omitted from more than one top 100 list. To me, Jack Bar is the perfect second round pick for the New Jersey Devils in a draft lacking in depth at RD, in a year that the Devils organization is nearly bereft at RD. Bar has more offensive upside than Case McCarthy, and it's safe to say that he's more advanced defensively right now than the 4-years-older Reilly Walsh. This is a player who oozes intelligence and effort, and it's never a good idea to bet against players befitting that description.
That’s a great write up. Thanks so much. NJ hopefully has seen this kid. He sounds like exactly what they need and to some extent fits the profile of the lefties they drafted in recent seasons. Your defensive evaluations work for me ever since you explained why Samberg was a legit NHL prospect and you also saw exactly the issues Bode Wilde was going to have. You might be the only draft writer who doesn’t see a solid all around defender as a low ceiling pick. NJ desperately needs prospect depth on the right side and I’m surprised they haven’t addressed it already. With any luck they find a couple of gems in later rounds this season.
Think of it this way -- the only forwards who play 20+ minute per game are your superstars -- your McDavids and Matthews and Crosbys. But the average second-pairing NHL defender plays over 20 minutes per game -- at a position where the slightest screw up leads to a high-danger opportunity against. These are very important players.
"Low-event" defensemen are often looked because they're not sexy. But they can be very effective. I guess I'm the exception because I'll pay great money to watch Brett Pesce play, but I wouldn't take Gostisbehere on my team if he were offered straight up for a 7th round pick with his full salary retained. The argument could be made that Tony DeAngelo cost the Rangers their playoff series vs. Carolina last year -- his low IQ and almost uncannily low compete level were singularly responsible for I think six goals against in a three game sweep. Would the Rangers have won that series had Jake Slavin and Tony DeAngelo switched jerseys? It's quite possible.
I also believe it's a myth that defense can be taught while offense can not be taught. For every Mark Giordano or Zdeno Chara -- an all-defense D who learns how to score at the NHL level -- you need to look very, very hard to find a defender who begins his career as a defensive liability and learns to become even average in that respect. Maybe Keith Yandle? More often than not, they fizzle out very early when their coaches learn they are not improving at all in their own zone and create more chances against than for -- a la Gostisbehere or DeAngelo or our own Will Butcher. Anyone heard from prodigal offensive defenseman Julius Honka in awhile? Derrick Pouliot, anyone?
Jack Bar is a very good hockey player. He's being painfully under-valued by draft analysts right now, but he's got a very high floor and a pretty good ceiling as a mid-pairing, all situations guy. While he's not quite the smothering force that Brock Faber was last year -- which is why I had Faber higher than almost anyone (I think Cam Robinson had me beat, haha). Faber was questioned because, essentially, he was a team-first defender who refused to take stupid chances with the puck -- even though the offensive skills were clearly on display in the right situations. Fast forward to the 2021 WJC -- Faber was downright dominant, one of the best few D-men in the tourney, while more-regarded players like Broberg or or Poirier or Grans were horror shows or left off their rosters completely.
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