Prospect Info: 2021 Mock Draft 1.0, Post-Palmieri Trade

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Captain3rdLine

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Revised draft order has Devils at #5. Mini-mock for 4/14:

1 BUF Power
2 OTT Beniers
3 SEA Hughes
4 ANH Edvinsson
5 NJ Clarke
6 VAN Guenther
7 DET Johnson
8 LA Eklund
9 CLB Raty
10 CGY Wallstedt
11 SJ Lambos
12 DAL Lysell
I use pts % for the standings especially this year because although Detroit it a point ahead of Vancouver, Vancouver has 7 games in hand on them to get that point. The devils are still ahead of Detroit in pts % but it is really close. 2pts back with 3 games in hand.
 

Nico Hischier

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I think the only player I would take over Hughes is power. If we had the choice of Hughes or Clarke I pick Hughes. When it comes time, just have smith play his offhand. Either way I think Hughes is maybe 2 years away and Clarke is 1 year away and power might be able to play in nhl next year
 

Captain3rdLine

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I think the only player I would take over Hughes is power. If we had the choice of Hughes or Clarke I pick Hughes. When it comes time, just have smith play his offhand. Either way I think Hughes is maybe 2 years away and Clarke is 1 year away and power might be able to play in nhl next year
I like Clarke as a player more than Hughes. The fact that he’s a righty is just a bonus. Also it is far from ideal to play Smith on his offhand. Whether he did it in junior or not it’s not as easy to play on your offside especially at a higher level. If we take a lefty I’d prefer they play on separate pairings than have one of them on their offside.
 
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Unknown Caller

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I'm not overly impressed with Clarke to be honest. Inefficient/awkward skating strides can really hamper defenseman as they move up levels, and his skating and play in generally is just way too choppy for me to take him over a guy like Guenther. I got the same feeling when I watched Will Butcher at Denver (Clarke is clearly a superior prospect to Butcher in every way, but conceptually there's something that gives me hesitation in their game due to awkwardness).

I know Luke Hughes has to improve play in his own end, but he's just such a smooth and effortless player that I can easily buy into him being dynamic at the next level. It's a pretty good bet that Hughes will be gone before Clarke, but to me it's a no brainer in the event we pick high enough to have the option.
 
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TheDuke93

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This is a draft where NJ likely moves up to get the bigger defensmen capable of being a 1st pair. I'd be surprised if they selected another 1st pair tweener with great offensive instincts.
But he's not a tweener, he's not small and he plays good defense. His offensive upside is through the roof as well. He's as much of a 1st pair potential prospect as Hughes or Powers.
 

Nocashstyle

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I'm not overly impressed with Clarke to be honest. Inefficient/awkward skating strides can really hamper defenseman as they move up levels, and his skating and play in generally is just way too choppy for me to take him over a guy like Guenther. I got the same feeling when I watched Will Butcher at Denver (Clarke is clearly a superior prospect to Butcher in every way, but conceptually there's something that gives me hesitation in their game due to awkwardness).

I know Luke Hughes has to improve play in his own end, but he's just such a smooth and effortless player that I can easily buy into him being dynamic at the next level. It's a pretty good bet that Hughes will be gone before Clarke, but to me it's a no brainer in the event we pick high enough to have the option.

Yeah that’s definitely concerning to me. Especially in today’s NHL. Basically every top defenseman in the league is a beautiful and efficient skater in addition to their other elite assets. I’m sure there are some outliers, but I can’t think of any off the top of my head.
 

Nubmer6

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Yeah that’s definitely concerning to me. Especially in today’s NHL. Basically every top defenseman in the league is a beautiful and efficient skater in addition to their other elite assets. I’m sure there are some outliers, but I can’t think of any off the top of my head.
I'm presuming every prospect has their warts. Is skating one that is correctable? Is it easier to correct than defensive IQ? I mean, he'll never be a Hughes skating, but is it something that can get significantly better?
 

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I'm presuming every prospect has their warts. Is skating one that is correctable? Is it easier to correct than defensive IQ? I mean, he'll never be a Hughes skating, but is it something that can get significantly better?

Yeah of course skating can be improved, but there’s also a “natural” aspect to it too IMO. Some skaters may only improve so much no matter how much they work on it.
 

Unknown Caller

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I'm presuming every prospect has their warts. Is skating one that is correctable? Is it easier to correct than defensive IQ? I mean, he'll never be a Hughes skating, but is it something that can get significantly better?

I would not draft a guy high on the assumption that you're going to correct his skating. I'm sure he can improve to an extent, but you're not going to get a prospect a skating coach and have him turn into an effortless skater in the mold of Hughes and Makar. A lot of that is just God given. I would much rather take my chances on getting a prospect with Luke Hughes' abilities to refine his defensive game.

I'm not trashing Clarke by any means, I just don't think I could justify taking him over players like Hughes and Guenther.
 

Nico Hischier

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Okay so keep smith on his left side. I’d still take Hughes or power if we pick 1. Have a left side of Hughes and smith. Look at Tampa. Their left side is hedman McDonnugh sergachev. Anyone of those guys would be our 1LD
 
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StevenToddIves

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I’m wondering how much Clarke being an RD will effect his value. This aren’t generic teams drafting so I of course.

Anaheim finding Edvinsson worth taking that high to get a partner for Drydale is interesting. He would make up for Drysdale sin of being under 6’0”. (You pointed out that Anaheim and Ottawa historically draft for size a while back and I somehow never noticed that even though they really did.)

Lol on Calgary processing their trama over Markstrom’s struggles and all three centers being gone by drafting a goalie. They have Wolf though. I guess they have a lot of LHD prospects? They could use a high end scorer though.

Ottawa taking Beniers is a little surprising but I don’t even sort of know where conventional wisdom is here with his ranking. Clarke would make a ton of sense for them unfortunately.

Anaheim had one of the best drafts in the league last year (2020 1st Round -- Drysdale and Perreault), and in 2019 lucked out at Trevor Zegras at #9 when Edmonton made the baffling pick of Philip Broberg at #8. So, maybe they've turned the corner draft-wise. But this is a front office which has had great stability in recent years. They tend to ice one of the biggest teams, actual-size wise, in the entire NHL and rarely draft smaller players. They have also drafted an inordinate percentage of their players out of either North America or Sweden, which could represent either an organizational bias or simply a disparity in how much influence certain scouts possess when draft decisions are being made. Either way, this factors in to my mind-set when I am working on mock draft scenarios and Anaheim is set to pick. Last year people were mocking them players like Marco Rossi and Lucas Raymond at #5 overall, and I was like no, not Anaheim. Drysdale is the smallest player they have drafted in the first two rounds since Kyle Palmieri. In the last 5 drafts, the Ducks have drafted just one skater who hails from a place other than North America or Sweden, using a 5th round pick last year on LW Artyom Galimov.

This leads me to believe that the Ducks will overvalue certain highly ranked players over others who do not fit their M.O. Simon Edvinsson has everything the Anaheim scouts seem to fawn over -- he's big, fast and Swedish. The only element he lacks is physicality. Though certain outlying draft analysts have him in a far lower tier than LD like Power or Hughes (I have him at #14, while Steve Kournianos has Edvinsson at #23), other draft analysts have ranked him as high as #3. But look at the LD they have drafted higher than expected in the past decade -- Jacob Larsson (6'2, Swedish), Marcus Pettersson (6'3, Swedish), Hampus Lindholm (6'3, Swedish). The problem is that, of these picks, only Lindholm has truly become an impact defender for them, while Larsson and Pettersson are serviceable players, they don't move the needle. So, now the Ducks find themselves in a place where they are extremely organizationally thin at LD -- they have a pair of pretty promising prospects for the middle-pair (Jackson LaCombe) and bottom-pair (Henry Thrun), but nothing which is potentially top-pairing caliber. Personally, I feel Edvinsson projects to more of a very, very good middle-pairing NHLer, but due to Anaheim's scouting proclivities, I believe they are the type of team who would value his particular skill set more than myself or Steve Kournianos.
 

StevenToddIves

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I think the only player I would take over Hughes is power. If we had the choice of Hughes or Clarke I pick Hughes. When it comes time, just have smith play his offhand. Either way I think Hughes is maybe 2 years away and Clarke is 1 year away and power might be able to play in nhl next year

I feel people are understating what a complete magician Brandt Clarke is with the puck on his stick. He turns routine dump-ins into zone entries with possession, he turns board-chips down deep into dangerous scoring opportunities. When rating offensive defensemen, I am extremely high on Luke Hughes' passing, awareness and puck-handling... but I think Clarke edges him in all three categories. I would give the edge to Hughes in skating -- Hughes could be the best skater in the entire 2021 draft. Ultimately, I give Clarke a slight edge over Hughes. But even disregarding that, Hughes' edge over Ty Smith at LD would be slight, at best. While Clarke's talent edge over any young RD in the Devils organization, pro or prospect, would be an absolute chasm.
 

StevenToddIves

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I would not draft a guy high on the assumption that you're going to correct his skating. I'm sure he can improve to an extent, but you're not going to get a prospect a skating coach and have him turn into an effortless skater in the mold of Hughes and Makar. A lot of that is just God given. I would much rather take my chances on getting a prospect with Luke Hughes' abilities to refine his defensive game.

I'm not trashing Clarke by any means, I just don't think I could justify taking him over players like Hughes and Guenther.

I don't understand this post, on the basis that Brandt Clarke is an excellent skater. Is he Hughes, Edvinsson or Lambos? No, but his hockey skills are all far, far ahead of Edvinsson and Lambos and also edge out Hughes. Power is a different story, he's a completely different type of player and I would say the same about Svozil.

But while Clarke's lack of elite skating keep his projection below the stratospheric potential of a Makar, I feel his closest comparable is Erik Karlsson, and Clarke is the more polished player at the same age.
 

StevenToddIves

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Yeah that’s definitely concerning to me. Especially in today’s NHL. Basically every top defenseman in the league is a beautiful and efficient skater in addition to their other elite assets. I’m sure there are some outliers, but I can’t think of any off the top of my head.

Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite skating:
Giordano, Keith, Weber, Keith, Suter, Lidstrom. (we could debate a few more, but for the sake of argument)

Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite hockey IQ:
None

Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite passing/vision:
Weber, Chara

I think we can say that, in order to be an elite NHL defenseman, elite skating is extremely beneficial but not required. Elite passing and vision is almost essential, except in the case of an extremely intelligent, shut-down guy who can also absolutely blast the puck from the point. And elite hockey IQ is essential, with no exceptions whatsoever.

Power would probably be in the "Chara/Weber" school of NHL defender, but he's also a better skater than either of those two by far. Hughes is potentially elite in all of these categories. Clarke has very good but not elite skating, but his hockey IQ and passing/puck skills are both markedly better than Hughes right now.

What I'm saying is, these are all outstanding defense prospects. But at the moment I'm ranking them (and it's close) Power-Clarke-Hughes.
 
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StevenToddIves

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praying that Hughes falls to us / we have a higher pick than Vancouver

Vancouver is unlikely to draft Luke Hughes. They have a very similar-type player at the same position in Quinn Hughes. I can see Vancouver targeting a forward like Dylan Guenther or Kent Johnson or William Eklund if they wind up picking in the top 7 or 8.
 
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Nocashstyle

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Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite skating:
Giordano, Keith, Weber, Keith, Suter, Lidstrom. (we could debate a few more, but for the sake of argument)

Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite hockey IQ:
None

Norris Trophy finalists from the past decade who lack elite passing/vision:
Weber, Chara

I think we can say that, in order to be an elite NHL defenseman, elite skating is extremely beneficial but not required. Elite passing and vision is almost essential, except in the case of an extremely intelligent, shut-down guy who can also absolutely blast the puck from the point. And elite hockey IQ is essential, with no exceptions whatsoever.

Power would probably be in the "Chara/Weber" school of NHL defender, but he's also a better skater than either of those two by far. Hughes is potentially elite in all of these categories. Clarke has very good but not elite skating, but his hockey IQ and passing/puck skills are both markedly better than Hughes right now.

What I'm saying is, these are all outstanding defense prospects. But at the moment I'm ranking them (and it's close) Power-Clarke-Hughes.

I certainly do not agree with your Keith example. IMO he’s an excellent skater, especially at his peak - he looked like Neidermayer. Pretty terrific. The rest of those examples are more the “old guard” even though Gio recently won a Norris. Even so, I don’t really think any are poor skaters either.

Almost all of the top Dmen coming into the league these days are top notch skaters.
 

Unknown Caller

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I don't understand this post, on the basis that Brandt Clarke is an excellent skater. Is he Hughes, Edvinsson or Lambos? No, but his hockey skills are all far, far ahead of Edvinsson and Lambos and also edge out Hughes. Power is a different story, he's a completely different type of player and I would say the same about Svozil.

But while Clarke's lack of elite skating keep his projection below the stratospheric potential of a Makar, I feel his closest comparable is Erik Karlsson, and Clarke is the more polished player at the same age.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on our evaluation. Clarke is not an excellent skater in my opinion. He gets around, but he has a little bit of an unconventional stride and he isn't very smooth or efficient. It's pretty pronounced when I see it.

In fact, Pronman noted the skating issue as well (he even has Clarke below Lucius, although I wouldn't go that far):

The concern on Clarke is his skating as he has an awkward stride. He defends well in junior because of his excellent IQ and decent reach, but the pace will be a concern in that regard as he advances levels.

The bottom line is I value skating and puck skills more than anything with defenseman, especially when we're talking elite defenseman with a top 10 pick. I have enough concerns with Clarke to not rate him above the likes of Hughes or Guenther. You obviously have less concerns and even view his skating as as strength, which is totally fair in your analysis.
 
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Comparison Ford

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Vancouver is unlikely to draft Luke Hughes. They have a very similar-type player at the same position in Quinn Hughes. I can see Vancouver targeting a forward like Dylan Guenther or Kent Johnson or William Eklund if they wind up picking in the top 7 or 8.
this is great news. i think teams like the devils, small markets in bad income tax states need connections like this to keep players excited and want to play for each other.
 

StevenToddIves

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I certainly do not agree with your Keith example. IMO he’s an excellent skater, especially at his peak - he looked like Neidermayer. Pretty terrific. The rest of those examples are more the “old guard” even though Gio recently won a Norris. Even so, I don’t really think any are poor skaters either.

Almost all of the top Dmen coming into the league these days are top notch skaters.

Alright, I was thinking of the "older Keith" I suppose, who has clearly lost a couple steps. Giordano won a Norris less than two years ago despite markedly ordinary skating by any standard. Clarke is a very good skater. His edges are terrific, his balance is better than average and his top speeds are good. The fact that Clarke has an awkward skating stance does not in any way inhibit his ability to get from Point A to Point B right quick.

Regardless, the fact remains that the most crucial elements for a successful NHL defenseman -- even in the modern age -- are hockey IQ and passing/vision. Clarke is the best in those regards of any defenseman in the draft except for Svozil, whom I would give the edge in IQ to any D in the 2021 class.
 

TheDuke93

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We'll just have to agree to disagree on our evaluation. Clarke is not an excellent skater in my opinion. He gets around, but he has a little bit of an unconventional stride and he isn't very smooth or efficient. It's pretty pronounced when I see it.

In fact, Pronman noted the skating issue as well (he even has Clarke below Lucius, although I wouldn't go that far):



The bottom line is I value skating and puck skills more than anything with defenseman, especially when we're talking elite defenseman with a top 10 pick. I have enough concerns with Clarke to not rate him above the likes of Hughes or Guenther. You obviously have less concerns and even view his skating as as strength, which is totally fair in your analysis.
Clarke has outstanding puck skills though.
 

TheDuke93

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Alright, I was thinking of the "older Keith" I suppose, who has clearly lost a couple steps. Giordano won a Norris less than two years ago despite markedly ordinary skating by any standard. Clarke is a very good skater. His edges are terrific, his balance is better than average and his top speeds are good. The fact that Clarke has an awkward skating stance does not in any way inhibit his ability to get from Point A to Point B right quick.

Regardless, the fact remains that the most crucial elements for a successful NHL defenseman -- even in the modern age -- are hockey IQ and passing/vision. Clarke is the best in those regards of any defenseman in the draft except for Svozil, whom I would give the edge in IQ to any D in the 2021 class.
I would argue Keith and his choppy stride kind of go above and beyond proving your point that his understanding of where he needs to be and when is what makes him so damn good. His skating is more so "flashy" then good imo.
 

My3Sons

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this is great news. i think teams like the devils, small markets in bad income tax states need connections like this to keep players excited and want to play for each other.

Let's see how Quinn and Jack's first RFA contract negotiations go before anybody plants a flag. My guess is both just demand tip top dollar and does any team really benefit from turning the team entirely over to the Hughes family? If Jack and Quinn are hellbent on playing together do they include Luke? How much cap can one team invest in one family? At the end of the day my expectation is that money talks with them as it does with most pro athletes. Vancouver also has a similar player to Jack in Petterson. Are they going to pay Petterson and Jack for one of them to play on the second line? I don't think that's how you build a team in real life. When Vancouver dumps Petterson for a right handed defenseman and a scoring winger I'll think that they are trying to make room for Jack. Until then it's hard to get too worked up, despite the bevy of Vancouver fans clutching their pearls over it.
 

Nico Hischier

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I don’t think ty smith is a great skater but he is excellent at everything else. It’s what holds him back imo. I’d rather have the defenseman that is a better skater if everything else is similar.
 
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