Prospect Info: 2021 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #14

[Guadana]

Gritsyuk. #14 and he is not win his spot still. shame.
Thompson is my number 14. I really like his skills, but he was very raw in NHL and AHL. And I cant say he is NHL ready. And he is not young. Hope he will breakaway this or next season. I do really like him.

 

[HBK27]

In fact, Im not sure id take Walsh over any of these names minus Brady and Zetterlund. They all are 2-4 years younger and have shown more

is Walsh getting votes because hes more known? He turns 23 before the end of the season, if he doesnt steal a spot on the big boy roster next season.. he likely never will

edit: for reference, Severson is only 27 and Hamilton 28. So if he cant steal that bottom pair spot next offseason, when hes the oldest RHD we have.. im not sure how he does after that

Seems like you're more in favor of the younger mystery box prospects.

I tried looking it up, but couldn't find anything on Walsh's season last year in Binghamton. Saw that the led defensemen on the team in points and finished 4th overall. League-wide he was tied for 6th in points among rookie defensemen.

He was voted top 10 among our prospects pool the prior two years and FWIW (probably not much) has cracked AATJ's top 20 ranking of NJ's top 25 under 25 players, finishing ahead of several players ranked above him in this poll.

 

[Guadana]

I went Misyul.

I see Walsh in the lead, and I can see why people are voting for him, but I wonder if he's not a Reid Boucher defensemen.

No he is not. He hasn`t as good shot as Boucher has.
Anyway I see Walsh can play some NHL minutes. RD is rare position.

Anyway there were some butcher`s fans. Why they didn`t deserve butcher 2.0?

 

[devilsblood]

No he is not. He hasn`t as good shot as Boucher has.
Anyway I see Walsh can play some NHL minutes. RD is rare position.

Anyway there were some butcher`s fans. Why they didn`t deserve butcher 2.0?

People take these comparisons so literal.

But one thing Walsh did seem to have was a pretty wicked pp one timer.

 

[HyperX]

Seems like you're more in favor of the younger mystery box prospects.

I tried looking it up, but couldn't find anything on Walsh's season last year in Binghamton. Saw that the led defensemen on the team in points and finished 4th overall. League-wide he was tied for 6th in points among rookie defensemen.

He was voted top 10 among our prospects pool the prior two years and FWIW (probably not much) has cracked AATJ's top 20 ranking of NJ's top 25 under 25 players, finishing ahead of several players ranked above him in this poll.

Ill be honest and say.. if Walsh loses out the 3RD spot next year to someone else, I wouldnt even view him as a prospect anymore; at least not for us

Hes an offensive dman whod be playing behind two offensive defenseman, with Ty as another possible PP guy. If he cant manage to stake his spot on the roster when Subban is gone (and not one single RHD to compete with), then I would leave him as a AHL player and not an NHL prospect.

its not often I put such a 'make it or be done' label on prospects; but its also rare that one is set up to be practically given a spot due to organizational need and a lack of depth. I mean.. can we even name another RHD competing for that spot out of our pool? McCarthy needs more college or at least AHL time.

it will be on Reilly to capitalize on this or be left behind.

 

[Guadana]

People take these comparisons so literal.

But one thing Walsh did seem to have was a pretty wicked pp one timer.

ok. I will call him Willireiyad Bouchutcher II.
.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

edit: for reference, Severson is only 27 and Hamilton 28. So if he cant steal that bottom pair spot next offseason, when hes the oldest RHD we have.. im not sure how he does after that

Ummm I’m not very high on Walsh either but do Subban and Jaros not exist? Walsh’s realistic hope would be that he has a really good start in the AHL and then he gets a call up if there’s an injury or two.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ill be honest and say.. if Walsh loses out the 3RD spot next year to someone else, I wouldnt even view him as a prospect anymore; at least not for us

Hes an offensive dman whod be playing behind two offensive defenseman, with Ty as another possible PP guy. If he cant manage to stake his spot on the roster when Subban is gone (and not one single RHD to compete with), then I would leave him as a AHL player and not an NHL prospect.

its not often I put such a 'make it or be done' label on prospects; but its also rare that one is set up to be practically given a spot due to organizational need and a lack of depth. I mean.. can we even name another RHD competing for that spot out of our pool? McCarthy needs more college or at least AHL time.

it will be on Reilly to capitalize on this or be left behind.

Once again Subban isn’t gone and played like a top 4 last year and we have Jaros. How on earth is he in position to be given a spot. RD is literally our strongest position going into this season and is probably one of the best RD groups in the league.

Hamilton
Severson
Subban
Jaros
Walsh

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Misyul is just downright being disrespected at this point

what had Walsh done to be above Misyul? Misyul was taken right near Ohkotyuk and he went five spots ago!

Misyul kind of stagnated last year but is still young enough to be something. By comparison of the two "other" Russian defensemen in the Devils system (not including Mukhamadullin), it seems Zaitsev had a bigger role for his respective team than Misyul did.

That could be due to myriad factors so it will be interesting to watch how things go this season.

 

[Guttersniped]

Misyul kind of stagnated last year but is still young enough to be something. By comparison of the two "other" Russian defensemen in the Devils system (not including Mukhamadullin), it seems Zaitsev had a bigger role for his respective team than Misyul did.

That could be due to myriad factors so it will be interesting to watch how things go this season.

Zaitsev has two seasons on Misyul and KHL site has his total minutes at ~16m this season (58 GP), ~16m last season (58 GP) and ~13m in 2018-19 (47GP). He got ~9:30m at 19 in 2017-18 (28GP).

Misyul had ~10m last season (46GP) after getting -9m (35 GP) at 19. So, yeah, we would like to see a jump in Misyul’s ice-time (though this total ice-time and I don’t know their ES time).

I was even more bummed Zaitsev didn’t get a bigger bump in ice time, the older defensive defensemen (Gavrikov, Lyubushkin) who come over tend to play clear top four minutes by 23. Yes, he’s very long distant shot, particularly since he’s not that big, but hope springs eternal.

I think Walsh has time, there’s two years on his ELC and he only played 33 AHL games last year. He can play big minutes in Utica, my guess is he gets some NHL games in, maybe to showcase him if we do want to trade him. I’m not heavily advocating it, but the advantage of playing guys in the NHL is that it gives them value, I doubt Colorado would give a shit about Maltsev if he didn’t play 33 NHL games last season (with distinction of course).

 

[HBK27]

Ill be honest and say.. if Walsh loses out the 3RD spot next year to someone else, I wouldnt even view him as a prospect anymore; at least not for us

Hes an offensive dman whod be playing behind two offensive defenseman, with Ty as another possible PP guy. If he cant manage to stake his spot on the roster when Subban is gone (and not one single RHD to compete with), then I would leave him as a AHL player and not an NHL prospect.

its not often I put such a 'make it or be done' label on prospects; but its also rare that one is set up to be practically given a spot due to organizational need and a lack of depth. I mean.. can we even name another RHD competing for that spot out of our pool? McCarthy needs more college or at least AHL time.

it will be on Reilly to capitalize on this or be left behind.

I think that's a fair timeline given his age.

My expectation for Walsh this season is to continue to develop in the AHL and maybe get a few games in NJ if there are some injuries (though even that's tough with 4 RD on the roster), but otherwise he should really be focusing on competing for a roster spot in the '22-'23 season given our current depth at RD, his career path & the assumption that Subban will not be back with this team next season.

 

[devilsblood]

Ummm I’m not very high on Walsh either but do Subban and Jaros not exist? Walsh’s realistic hope would be that he has a really good start in the AHL and then he gets a call up if there’s an injury or two.

Subban sure. Jaros? I know Walsh and Jaros are pretty opposite ends of the spectrum, so maybe we'd lean more towards a defensive, pk capable d-man for that spot, but Walsh not being able to outplay Jaros for that spot would be telling.

 

[HBK27]

Can anyone comment or provide a link as to how Walsh played last season in the AHL?

Just seems like he's the largest drop in the prospect rankings and I'm not quite sure what's driving it.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Can anyone comment or provide a link as to how Walsh played last season in the AHL?

Just seems like he's the largest drop in the prospect rankings and I'm not quite sure what's driving it.

I don't think it's that Walsh is necessarily dropping, I think his performance was as expected (good offensive skill, lots of work to do defensively). I think it's more a combination of:

-The overall strength of our prospect pool improving, particularly at D
-The logjam of D prospects in the AHL makes it difficult to stand out
-His skill set is quite redundant with Smith, Hamilton, and Luke as the PP QBs for the foreseeable future

I think he will definitely make a career out of being a pro hockey player, but I don't think there's a path to success for him with the Devils. I would use him as trade bait.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Subban sure. Jaros? I know Walsh and Jaros are pretty opposite ends of the spectrum, so maybe we'd lean more towards a defensive, pk capable d-man for that spot, but Walsh not being able to outplay Jaros for that spot would be telling.

Jaros has some NHL experience and is a bigger more defensive defensemen. They didn’t trade for him for him to be in the AHL and he’s exactly the kind of defensemen that Fitz likes. Walsh only has 33 AHL games. Jaros is a couple years older and has 90 NHL games. The 4th RD spot is Jaros’ to lose and I’d be very impressed and surprised if Walsh took that spot from him.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think it's that Walsh is necessarily dropping, I think his performance was as expected (good offensive skill, lots of work to do defensively). I think it's more a combination of:

-The overall strength of our prospect pool improving, particularly at D
-The logjam of D prospects in the AHL makes it difficult to stand out
-His skill set is quite redundant with Smith, Hamilton, and Luke as the PP QBs for the foreseeable future

I think he will definitely make a career out of being a pro hockey player, but I don't think there's a path to success for him with the Devils. I would use him as trade bait.

Walsh's #'s weren't overly impressive, but that could be clouded by the fact that the team in general didn't score a whole lot.

I do wonder if Sev's and Hamilton are good enough on the PK that it would allow an offensive guy like Walsh on that 3rd pair. Because we do have a long term hole at that spot.

 

[Devils731]

Prospects following a normally growth curve will likely diminish in rankings over time as more credit is given to potential upside than anything else.

So if you just progress level to level and you’re 3 years older than you’re going to end up behind a guy just drafted who still has the chance to explode in any of those 3 post draft years.

This makes some sense since the outcome of “not being an impact NHL player” is so common and wide while the ranges of impact or special NHL player is uncommon and narrow.

So players are going to get extra credit for the potential to outperform their expectations. That potential decreases as years go by.

 

[Triumph]

Jaros has some NHL experience and is a bigger more defensive defensemen. They didn’t trade for him for him to be in the AHL and he’s exactly the kind of defensemen that Fitz likes. Walsh only has 33 AHL games. Jaros is a couple years older and has 90 NHL games. The 4th RD spot is Jaros’ to lose and I’d be very impressed and surprised if Walsh took that spot from him.

They signed him to a two-way contract so there's certainly some anticipation that he could end up there. Walsh isn't going to take that spot from him, but I'd like if they signed a 7th D. That said, I don't see many candidates for that.

 

[devilsblood]

Jaros has some NHL experience and is a bigger more defensive defensemen. They didn’t trade for him for him to be in the AHL and he’s exactly the kind of defensemen that Fitz likes. Walsh only has 33 AHL games. Jaros is a couple years older and has 90 NHL games. The 4th RD spot is Jaros’ to lose and I’d be very impressed and surprised if Walsh took that spot from him.

The 4th spot is clearly Jaros, but I think that is because we don't want Walsh not playing games. Jaros is guy you can stick in that spot and not sweat it.

Your other point on Jaros being a defensive defensemen I agree with, stylistically he might be a better fit. And as you note he has NHL experience, and much more overall pro experience, which is obviously something Walsh is lacking.

The other side of the debate is Jaros is not that good. So could a 22 year old Walsh in his 2nd year at the professional level jump Jaros if there were to be an injury, or perhaps a Subban trade? I think if Walsh has real hopes of being an NHL player he should be able to do that.

 

[devilsblood]

They signed him to a two-way contract so there's certainly some anticipation that he could end up there. Walsh isn't going to take that spot from him, but I'd like if they signed a 7th D. That said, I don't see many candidates for that.

You don't think Jaros was brought in for exactly that reason?

I really don't know his game, but I tend to think he would be a pretty average 7th d.

 

[devilsblood]

Prospects following a normally growth curve will likely diminish in rankings over time as more credit is given to potential upside than anything else.

So if you just progress level to level and you’re 3 years older than you’re going to end up behind a guy just drafted who still has the chance to explode in any of those 3 post draft years.

This makes some sense since the outcome of “not being an impact NHL player” is so common and wide while the ranges of impact or special NHL player is uncommon and narrow.

So players are going to get extra credit for the potential to outperform their expectations. That potential decreases as years go by.

On the flip side is a mid level prospect like Z who looks like he may be in the running for an open spot at the NHL level.

I think it is kind of interesting because his prospect stock rose because Bastian was picked by Seattle. I mean he had a solid season in the AHL, but not really eye popping, it was the spot opening up which gives Z a boost here. In my book at least.

 

[Triumph]

You don't think Jaros was brought in for exactly that reason?

I really don't know his game, but I tend to think he would be a pretty average 7th d.

I want Jaros in the minors as the first callup for a short-term injury on the right side. If they intended for him to be the 7th D, full stop, they wouldn't've given him a two-way contract.

 

[devilsblood]

I want Jaros in the minors as the first callup for a short-term injury on the right side. If they intended for him to be the 7th D, full stop, they wouldn't've given him a two-way contract.

What if Bahl beats out Sieg's in camp or some time during the season? Sieg's becomes the 7th and Jaros goes down. The two way provides some flexibility.

But what is the drawback to giving him a 2 way?

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't think it's that Walsh is necessarily dropping, I think his performance was as expected (good offensive skill, lots of work to do defensively). I think it's more a combination of:

-The overall strength of our prospect pool improving, particularly at D
-The logjam of D prospects in the AHL makes it difficult to stand out
-His skill set is quite redundant with Smith, Hamilton, and Luke as the PP QBs for the foreseeable future

I think he will definitely make a career out of being a pro hockey player, but I don't think there's a path to success for him with the Devils. I would use him as trade bait.

It’s a lot of the bolded (and some frustration that our top RHD isn’t not that) plus he’s being Will Butchered, which has a lot of negative associations right now. And the competition is heavy. He’s also older, only Schnarr, Talvitie and Studenic are older.

I don’t know how we can adequately judge his defense in the AHL last season, the defense was undermanned by a bunch of rookies, and lacked vet support of season before, so it was doomed to struggle.

Elite prospects sometimes drops some interesting tidbits because they pay for InStats proprietary AHL stats (they had a great article about Koukkanen, liked Studenic in the prospect list, nailed Merkley’s strengths & weaknesses in that prospect list as well). I don’t know how well it’s AHL defensemen coverage will go, this is the first time they would have ranked defensive prospects of ours in the AHL to discuss.

I’m definitely not holding up their rankings as some holy end all but it’s always interesting.

 

[AfroThunder396]

It’s a lot of the bolded (and some frustration that our top RHD isn’t not that) plus he’s being Will Butchered, which has a lot of negative associations right now. And the competition is heavy. He’s also older, only Schnarr, Talvitie and Studenic are older.

I don’t know how we can adequately judge his defense in the AHL last season, the defense was undermanned by a bunch of rookies, and lacked vet support of season before, so it was doomed to struggle.

Elite prospects sometimes drops some interesting tidbits because they pay for InStats proprietary AHL stats (they had a great article about Koukkanen, liked Studenic in the prospect list, nailed Merkley’s strengths & weaknesses in that prospect list as well). I don’t know how well it’s AHL defensemen coverage will go, this is the first time they would have ranked defensive prospects of ours in the AHL to discuss.

I’m definitely not holding up their rankings as some holy end all but it’s always interesting.

Yep, I know the general media is much higher on Walsh than HFBoards is. A lot of people here have pigeonholed him as a Will Butcher, like you mentioned. But Some pretty respected prospects writers see more potential in him than that.

A good season in the AHL might bounce him back up the list quite a bit.