Oh yes, I lurk these forums daily and I read almost all of your write-ups/inputs. It's a huge asset to have you and some others with real insight into these prospects, especially for someone who doesn't delve in too deep.
Getting Lambos that late could, in my opinion, be arguably just as important to the franchise than whoever we take at 4. Like you said, if he Booms instead of Busts, that's potentially 2 top pairing D in the same draft. Huge.
Yes, I feel Devils fans should be talking more about Lambos. His draft position is tough to pinpoint -- NHL front offices love big, fast defensemen and Lambos compliments this with a booming shot, nice physicality and high-end vision. However, NHL front offices are also terrified by players who have had tough draft-eligible seasons. This combination makes Lambos' eventual draft position extremely volatile.
We can look at a player in last year's draft like Justin Barron as a possible comparable. Barron entered the 2020 season as a guy who was often found ranked in the #8-#12 range, before a season filled with injury and inconsistency dropped him out of many first-round rankings altogether. Barron is a RD who has a similar combination of size (6'2-200) and great skating ability as Lambos, though Barron's shooting and passing ability fall shy of Lambos. Colorado took Barron at #25 overall, which was probably about 2 to 5 spots higher than his consensus ranking, hoping a healthy Barron would return to his 2018-19 form. It seems now to be a terrific pick -- Barron rebounded for a terrific 2020-21 campaign with Halifax of the QMJHL, then was signed by the Ads and looked very good at the AHL level in a brief 7-game stint.
In a 2020 redraft, it's safe to say Barron is a top 20 pick, so Colorado's early returns look quite promising. And it's important to note when making this situational comparison that Carson Lambos has greater upside than Barron. So, while taking Lambos in the #9-#12 range -- which is unlikely but possible -- would represent a huge risk, a team taking Lambos in the #20-#30 range could be getting a two-way, top-pairing defenseman in a spot of
extreme value.
I've written about Lambos at length, but not on this thread, so I'll discuss his potential. We're talking about a 6'1-205 defender with man-strength and outstanding skating ability. He skates like a much smaller man, with high-end 4-way agility and an explosive first step. His backwards skating is high end, his edge work is high end. He's just a terrific skater. Lambos' shot might be the best for any 2021 draft-eligible defender, and he's a dual threat from the blueline with terrific passing ability -- though not quite elite like a Clarke or Hughes. He's got a soft set of hands and can dangle, although Lambos' stylistic demeanor makes him more apt to get rid of the puck with his strong passing and shooting options.
Defensively, Lambos is awesome when he's on and confusing when he's off, and the same can be said about his transition game. When he's on, he's lacing stretch passes and using strong gaps and physicality to shut down the opposition. When he's off, he can seem tentative and reticent both with and without the puck. Sometimes he will wait a split-second too long to make a decision, and this split-second costs him. I've seen games where he shows strong signs of knowing his strength and looking like he's on the verge of becoming an air-tight shut-down guy, and other games where he seems tentative and unwilling to use the body in situations where he could easily outmuscle the opposition.
The lack of consistency in play makes Lambos scary as a pick around the top ten, but at #20-#25? If this kid puts it all together, he just has a rare combination of size, athleticism, shooting, puck skill and skating. He really reminds a lot of Alex Pietrangelo in his draft-eligible season -- maybe not stylistically, but in the fact that you watch him and keep thinking "man, if this kid puts it all together, look out!" but then you wind up thinking "well, why hasn't he put it all together?"
With Pietrangelo -- it took awhile, but he put it all together and led the St. Louis Blues to a Stanley Cup. He's an elite defenseman, I'd say a top 5 RD in the world right now. And I feel it's safe to say Pietrangelo's abilities and flaws are similar to Lambos at the same age.
I feel the Devils' depth at LD makes Lambos a really shrewd risk. If Lambos does not reach his lofty potential? He's still probably a "Bogosian-type" for your bottom 4 -- a guy with size, speed and shooting who will factor in at the NHL level. If Lambos does reach his potential? He could wind up being as good or better than the names usually discussed for the Devils #4 pick in Clarke and Hughes. That's one hell of a potential payoff with a #20 pick. Chances are Lambos winds up somewhere in between these two polar extremes, but if he's anywhere near his ceiling, he's a huge bargain for where he'll be drafted.
Thus, I feel that Lambos deserves some serious attention for NJ with the Islanders' pick. This is why I mocked him to the Devils even with some LWs I love available, like Othmann and Rosen.