Prospect Info: 2021 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Post Lottery Edition

[StevenToddIves]

If it shakes out differently, and we do end up with Hughes at 4, do you think that changes our next pick, assuming Lambos is still on the board?

Possibly. Fitzgerald has already shown that he will draft for positional need over likely "best available player", which he likely did with Mukhamadullin at #20 overall last year. I think Ceulemans and Heimosalmi would become two high targets at #20 in such a scenario as you have come up with. There is also a strong possibility of going for a LW here in my mind -- Brennan Othmann and Isak Rosen are two very possible NJ targets I have mentioned at length in. the past few months on these threads.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

 

[StevenToddIves]

These guys all obviously copy the hell out of me.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Don't rule out McTavish. I would however rule out Eklund -- he would represent the Ducks smallest first-round pick in pretty much team history. Not their MO at all.

Fine I’ll put him alongside Eklund as unlikely but possible. I know he’s surged up rankings but I still doubt they’ll take him over the other players available.

 

[My3Sons]

Possibly. Fitzgerald has already shown that he will draft for positional need over likely "best available player", which he likely did with Mukhamadullin at #20 overall last year. I think Ceulemans and Heimosalmi would become two high targets at #20 in such a scenario as you have come up with. There is also a strong possibility of going for a LW here in my mind -- Brennan Othmann and Isak Rosen are two very possible NJ targets I have mentioned at length in. the past few months on these threads.

I remain convinced that NJ drafted Mukhamadullin because Fitz fell in love with him when he participated in video scouting and it turned into one of those "smartest guy in the room" moments which are typically just contrarian moments that often times are no better than the conventional wisdom. If you look at Fitz's quotes at the time he mentioned how "we" saw things on the video. Really? Who's "we"? And do you think that a majority of scouts and Castron went running to Fitz to demand he take Mukhamadullin in the first round because he was easily the best player where they had him projected? Maybe, but the quotes make a lot more sense if you just substitute "I" for "we" when Fitz was commenting. I don't hate the pick and I think he looked better watching him on and off this past season to my eyes than the hot takes some posted about him. I will concede that Fitz found an undervalued player who might have looked like a very nice pick at 27-31 and is not a terrible pick where he was taken but not a great pick in my purely lay person eyes.

 

[Brovalchuk]

Possibly. Fitzgerald has already shown that he will draft for positional need over likely "best available player", which he likely did with Mukhamadullin at #20 overall last year. I think Ceulemans and Heimosalmi would become two high targets at #20 in such a scenario as you have come up with. There is also a strong possibility of going for a LW here in my mind -- Brennan Othmann and Isak Rosen are two very possible NJ targets I have mentioned at length in. the past few months on these threads.

Oh yes, I lurk these forums daily and I read almost all of your write-ups/inputs. It's a huge asset to have you and some others with real insight into these prospects, especially for someone who doesn't delve in too deep.

Getting Lambos that late could, in my opinion, be arguably just as important to the franchise than whoever we take at 4. Like you said, if he Booms instead of Busts, that's potentially 2 top pairing D in the same draft. Huge.

 

[Devs3cups]

Honestly, we should all be thrilled we're getting either one of Hughes or Clarke here. Interesting how this'll play out. Getting a great D prospect anyways.

 

[Devils731]

Honestly, we should all be thrilled we're getting either one of Hughes or Clarke here. Interesting how this'll play out. Getting a great D prospect anyways.

I think you spelled Edvinsson wrong.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oh yes, I lurk these forums daily and I read almost all of your write-ups/inputs. It's a huge asset to have you and some others with real insight into these prospects, especially for someone who doesn't delve in too deep.

Getting Lambos that late could, in my opinion, be arguably just as important to the franchise than whoever we take at 4. Like you said, if he Booms instead of Busts, that's potentially 2 top pairing D in the same draft. Huge.

Yes, I feel Devils fans should be talking more about Lambos. His draft position is tough to pinpoint -- NHL front offices love big, fast defensemen and Lambos compliments this with a booming shot, nice physicality and high-end vision. However, NHL front offices are also terrified by players who have had tough draft-eligible seasons. This combination makes Lambos' eventual draft position extremely volatile.

We can look at a player in last year's draft like Justin Barron as a possible comparable. Barron entered the 2020 season as a guy who was often found ranked in the #8-#12 range, before a season filled with injury and inconsistency dropped him out of many first-round rankings altogether. Barron is a RD who has a similar combination of size (6'2-200) and great skating ability as Lambos, though Barron's shooting and passing ability fall shy of Lambos. Colorado took Barron at #25 overall, which was probably about 2 to 5 spots higher than his consensus ranking, hoping a healthy Barron would return to his 2018-19 form. It seems now to be a terrific pick -- Barron rebounded for a terrific 2020-21 campaign with Halifax of the QMJHL, then was signed by the Ads and looked very good at the AHL level in a brief 7-game stint.

In a 2020 redraft, it's safe to say Barron is a top 20 pick, so Colorado's early returns look quite promising. And it's important to note when making this situational comparison that Carson Lambos has greater upside than Barron. So, while taking Lambos in the #9-#12 range -- which is unlikely but possible -- would represent a huge risk, a team taking Lambos in the #20-#30 range could be getting a two-way, top-pairing defenseman in a spot of extreme value.

I've written about Lambos at length, but not on this thread, so I'll discuss his potential. We're talking about a 6'1-205 defender with man-strength and outstanding skating ability. He skates like a much smaller man, with high-end 4-way agility and an explosive first step. His backwards skating is high end, his edge work is high end. He's just a terrific skater. Lambos' shot might be the best for any 2021 draft-eligible defender, and he's a dual threat from the blueline with terrific passing ability -- though not quite elite like a Clarke or Hughes. He's got a soft set of hands and can dangle, although Lambos' stylistic demeanor makes him more apt to get rid of the puck with his strong passing and shooting options.

Defensively, Lambos is awesome when he's on and confusing when he's off, and the same can be said about his transition game. When he's on, he's lacing stretch passes and using strong gaps and physicality to shut down the opposition. When he's off, he can seem tentative and reticent both with and without the puck. Sometimes he will wait a split-second too long to make a decision, and this split-second costs him. I've seen games where he shows strong signs of knowing his strength and looking like he's on the verge of becoming an air-tight shut-down guy, and other games where he seems tentative and unwilling to use the body in situations where he could easily outmuscle the opposition.

The lack of consistency in play makes Lambos scary as a pick around the top ten, but at #20-#25? If this kid puts it all together, he just has a rare combination of size, athleticism, shooting, puck skill and skating. He really reminds a lot of Alex Pietrangelo in his draft-eligible season -- maybe not stylistically, but in the fact that you watch him and keep thinking "man, if this kid puts it all together, look out!" but then you wind up thinking "well, why hasn't he put it all together?"

With Pietrangelo -- it took awhile, but he put it all together and led the St. Louis Blues to a Stanley Cup. He's an elite defenseman, I'd say a top 5 RD in the world right now. And I feel it's safe to say Pietrangelo's abilities and flaws are similar to Lambos at the same age.

I feel the Devils' depth at LD makes Lambos a really shrewd risk. If Lambos does not reach his lofty potential? He's still probably a "Bogosian-type" for your bottom 4 -- a guy with size, speed and shooting who will factor in at the NHL level. If Lambos does reach his potential? He could wind up being as good or better than the names usually discussed for the Devils #4 pick in Clarke and Hughes. That's one hell of a potential payoff with a #20 pick. Chances are Lambos winds up somewhere in between these two polar extremes, but if he's anywhere near his ceiling, he's a huge bargain for where he'll be drafted.

Thus, I feel that Lambos deserves some serious attention for NJ with the Islanders' pick. This is why I mocked him to the Devils even with some LWs I love available, like Othmann and Rosen.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think you spelled Edvinsson wrong.

I think if you're drafting #4 overall and you're the Devils -- loaded with strong defensive LD in the prospect pool like Bahl, Okhotyuk, Vukojevic and Misyul -- you'd want a D with more offensive upside. Thus, the limited offensive upside of an Edvinsson does not make nearly as much sense as the huge scoring upside of a Clarke or Hughes.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Yes, I feel Devils fans should be talking more about Lambos. His draft position is tough to pinpoint -- NHL front offices love big, fast defensemen and Lambos compliments this with a booming shot, nice physicality and high-end vision. However, NHL front offices are also terrified by players who have had tough draft-eligible seasons. This combination makes Lambos' eventual draft position extremely volatile.

We can look at a player in last year's draft like Justin Barron as a possible comparable. Barron entered the 2020 season as a guy who was often found ranked in the #8-#12 range, before a season filled with injury and inconsistency dropped him out of many first-round rankings altogether. Barron is a RD who has a similar combination of size (6'2-200) and great skating ability as Lambos, though Barron's shooting and passing ability fall shy of Lambos. Colorado took Barron at #25 overall, which was probably about 2 to 5 spots higher than his consensus ranking, hoping a healthy Barron would return to his 2018-19 form. It seems now to be a terrific pick -- Barron rebounded for a terrific 2020-21 campaign with Halifax of the QMJHL, then was signed by the Ads and looked very good at the AHL level in a brief 7-game stint.

In a 2020 redraft, it's safe to say Barron is a top 20 pick, so Colorado's early returns look quite promising. And it's important to note when making this situational comparison that Carson Lambos has greater upside than Barron. So, while taking Lambos in the #9-#12 range -- which is unlikely but possible -- would represent a huge risk, a team taking Lambos in the #20-#30 range could be getting a two-way, top-pairing defenseman in a spot of extreme value.

I've written about Lambos at length, but not on this thread, so I'll discuss his potential. We're talking about a 6'1-205 defender with man-strength and outstanding skating ability. He skates like a much smaller man, with high-end 4-way agility and an explosive first step. His backwards skating is high end, his edge work is high end. He's just a terrific skater. Lambos' shot might be the best for any 2021 draft-eligible defender, and he's a dual threat from the blueline with terrific passing ability -- though not quite elite like a Clarke or Hughes. He's got a soft set of hands and can dangle, although Lambos' stylistic demeanor makes him more apt to get rid of the puck with his strong passing and shooting options.

Defensively, Lambos is awesome when he's on and confusing when he's off, and the same can be said about his transition game. When he's on, he's lacing stretch passes and using strong gaps and physicality to shut down the opposition. When he's off, he can seem tentative and reticent both with and without the puck. Sometimes he will wait a split-second too long to make a decision, and this split-second costs him. I've seen games where he shows strong signs of knowing his strength and looking like he's on the verge of becoming an air-tight shut-down guy, and other games where he seems tentative and unwilling to use the body in situations where he could easily outmuscle the opposition.

The lack of consistency in play makes Lambos scary as a pick around the top ten, but at #20-#25? If this kid puts it all together, he just has a rare combination of size, athleticism, shooting, puck skill and skating. He really reminds a lot of Alex Pietrangelo in his draft-eligible season -- maybe not stylistically, but in the fact that you watch him and keep thinking "man, if this kid puts it all together, look out!" but then you wind up thinking "well, why hasn't he put it all together?"

With Pietrangelo -- it took awhile, but he put it all together and led the St. Louis Blues to a Stanley Cup. He's an elite defenseman, I'd say a top 5 RD in the world right now. And I feel it's safe to say Pietrangelo's abilities and flaws are similar to Lambos at the same age.

I feel the Devils' depth at LD makes Lambos a really shrewd risk. If Lambos does not reach his lofty potential? He's still probably a "Bogosian-type" for your bottom 4 -- a guy with size, speed and shooting who will factor in at the NHL level. If Lambos does reach his potential? He could wind up being as good or better than the names usually discussed for the Devils #4 pick in Clarke and Hughes. That's one hell of a potential payoff with a #20 pick. Chances are Lambos winds up somewhere in between these two polar extremes, but if he's anywhere near his ceiling, he's a huge bargain for where he'll be drafted.

Thus, I feel that Lambos deserves some serious attention for NJ with the Islanders' pick. This is why I mocked him to the Devils even with some LWs I love available, like Othmann and Rosen.

I’m annoyed that we didn’t take Barron. I would much rather have him than Mukhammadullin.

 

[My3Sons]

I’m annoyed that we didn’t take Barron. I would much rather have him than Mukhammadullin.

If you subscribe to the STI "Prospects: Review, Preview and Libations Guide" you'll recall that he really liked Faber's game and that turned out to be great pick in the second round.

 

[longislanddevil]

@StevenToddIves I read somewhere that Ron Francis likes to build teams from the backend and then on out (not sure how valid that article is and. do not recall where I saw it). Is there any chance Seattle could go Hughes over Beniers or Hughes over Power? Seattle may not want to wait an extra year for Hughes to be ready; it isn’t the most logical selection on the surface. I’m trying to conjure up scenarios in which Hughes is off the board when the Devils pick at 4. Maybe Buffalo shocks the world because....well, they are Buffalo.

Not trying to dump on Hughes as I’d be fine if the Devils selected him but he’s way more of a projection than Clarke. I’m also not a subscriber that Hughes’ ceiling is necessarily higher than Clarke’s. It is unquestionable to me that Clarke has the higher floor. If his last name wasn’t Hughes, would we be having this conversation? It’s an added bonus that Clarke is RD, representing a huge organizational need. To me, this isn’t a hard decision...if Jack wasn’t on the team. I’m not convinced Fitz has the juevos to go Clarke over Hughes....though in theory, if our scouts like Clarke better, he should be the selection.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m annoyed that we didn’t take Barron. I would much rather have him than Mukhammadullin.

Right now, I'd say of the defensemen picked from #20 and later, the draft order would go:
1 Faber
2 Niemela
3 Barron
4 Mukhamadullin
5 Viro/Kleven/Kuznetsov/O'Rourke (pretty close here and early to tell)

While I agree I would take Barron over Mukhamadullin today, the difference is really not significant.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If you subscribe to the STI "Prospects: Review, Preview and Libations Guide" you'll recall that he really liked Faber's game and that turned out to be great pick in the second round.

The libations guide is the hot part.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves I read somewhere that Ron Francis likes to build teams from the backend and then on out (not sure how valid that article is and. do not recall where I saw it). Is there any chance Seattle could go Hughes over Beniers or Hughes over Power? Seattle may not want to wait an extra year for Hughes to be ready; it isn’t the most logical selection on the surface. I’m trying to conjure up scenarios in which Hughes is off the board when the Devils pick at 4. Maybe Buffalo shocks the world because....well, they are Buffalo.

Not trying to dump on Hughes as I’d be fine if the Devils selected him but he’s way more of a projection than Clarke. I’m also not a subscriber that Hughes’ ceiling is necessarily higher than Clarke’s. It is unquestionable to me that Clarke has the higher floor. If his last name wasn’t Hughes, would we be having this conversation? It’s an added bonus that Clarke is RD, representing a huge organizational need. To me, this isn’t a hard decision...if Jack wasn’t on the team. I’m not convinced Fitz has the juevos to go Clarke over Hughes....though in theory, if our scouts like Clarke better, he should be the selection.

I agree Buffalo being Buffalo makes them difficult to predict, haha. If any team can blow the #1 overall pick, well...

That being said, there is a lot of pressure on this organization, which makes the "safe pick" more likely. Whereas a guy like Steve Yzerman -- widely considered to be a brilliant GM and extremely secure in his job -- can take a risk on draft day and shrug off any criticism -- Buffalo does not have this option, and are likely to be harshly scrutinized for any perceived flub. Owen Power is the closest thing to a consensus #1 and has both a very high floor and ceiling -- passing on him right now would represent a huge risk. I'm pretty confident that he will be Buffalo's pick.

As far as Seattle goes, it is important to factor in expansion rules with their draft pick. The Kraken will have the pick of many fine goaltenders, as teams can only protect one. The Kraken will have their pick of many fine D, as teams have the option of protecting either 1 or 3 at the most. With forwards, it's a lot more difficult. They'll be able to get some high quality guys, but mostly older ones like TJ Oshie or Tyler Johnson. There will be no legit top 6 centers available, however. This makes center a high priority if you're Ron Francis, and Matthew Beniers is can't miss -- a high-speed, high-compete, high-IQ two-way beast. I'm pretty confident he will be the guy for Seattle at #2.

There is certainly a strong chance Anaheim takes Luke Hughes at #3. This is a team which desperately needs offense, and a speed demon who is a monster in transition like Hughes would immediately juice the Ducks' offensive outlook for the foreseeable future. However, this is a very old school front office which still covets size and physicality on the same tier as skill, so it's tough to rule out an Edvinsson with their pick. I've cited McTavish as a possibility here as well -- he's a perfect heir to the Getzlaf throne as a big, physical two-way center with extremely high scoring potential and oozing character and grit.

I would say your eventual question was: what are the odds Luke Hughes is available for the Devils with the #4 overall pick? I would say the odds are very high indeed.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It’s about time you slacker!

Just kidding, thanks again for these STI

I'm actually on vacation in Belfast, Maine right now. Fortunately, I am fully capable of writing on a back porch with a beer in hand.

Next week I'm hoping to put together a new top 64 Draft Ranking. But you guys are going to have to give me a raise.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

A tremendous offensive upside RD from the Brooks Bandits? Definitely heard that one before and that turned out amazing. Mind sharing more info on Ceulemans?

lol knew this would happen eventually.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Hughes started skating already? The way people talked about his injury, I assumed this was something much longer term.

Anyway, I'm 100% on board with Clarke. I don't buy any of this stuff about Jack throwing a fit because the team doesn't draft his brother.

 

[Nubmer6]

Next week I'm hoping to put together a new top 64 Draft Ranking. But you guys are going to have to give me a raise.

I'll DOUBLE your salary!

 

[longislanddevil]

This mock from The Sporting News is very interesting as they actually have Hughes going 2 to Seattle.

They have the Devils taking Clarke and then Chibrikov. Interestingly, Othmann is selected immediately after Chibrikov.

I’ve heard a lot about Othmann but need to do research on Chibrikov. I feel like we are in good shape at RW and LW is an area of need...but if Chibrikov is the better prospect....which I’m sure is debatable....

Lambos takes a huge slide to very late in the round, picked by Winnipeg.

NHL mock draft 2021: Sabres take Owen Power at No. 1 in wide-open draft

 

[Lou is God]

@StevenToddIves I'm surprised you have us passing on Othmann. Great work as always!

 

[longislanddevil]

@StevenToddIves I'm surprised you have us passing on Othmann. Great work as always!

I prefer Othmann to Lambos personally...and Rosen for that matter. With that said, if Lambos is the pick, I certainly understand the rationale behind it.

 

[Guadana]

I hate it, haha. Clarke is perhaps the most unique player in the 2021 draft, give or take Power. He's just unusual in his creativity and fearlessness with the puck -- even his skating stride is weird. He does things I've never seen other players do almost routinely, spin-o-ramas to beat two forecheckers simultaneously behind his own goal line, no-look, cross-ice passes which hit his teammates tape on the break-in -- he's just fun and weird. Klingberg is extremely effective at all aspects offensively, but lacks this type of creativity or dynamism.

Like I've said, comparing Clarke to other defensemen is a bit like comparing a jazz musician to a rock musician or something. You can like him better or not like him better, but you can't deny he's doing something entirely different with the same tools of instrumentation. So my comparison is "John Coltrane if he did LSD like a young Ozzy Osborne". I hope that works for you.

If I can compare Clarke and Hughes with musicians, I would say Clarke is Miles Davis with his different composing waves, interesting and different improvise, make his band better, and Hughes is one of some heavy metal guitarists with high end speed, some good melodies sometimes, but limited tools.
For me Clarke is miles ahead.

 

[Xirik]

Good mock!

Personally I think the Ducks will draft Hughes, Yes they like big burly defensemen but Hughes is very young so their is a good chance he could still grow an inch. Hughes also would be the safer pick between him and Edvinsson IMO