NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XI [We got 3-5]

[Sens of Anarchy]

i find post like these to be useless and probably biased. not a fan of evaluating using just numbers, seems like the context gets lost.

Looking at only these stats and some zone starts absolutely agree

 

[Cosmix]

i find post like these to be useless and probably biased. not a fan of evaluating using just numbers, seems like the context gets lost.

I like having stats like this, particularly when you can compare them to other players’ stats.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like having stats like this, particularly when you can compare them to other players’ stats.

Problem is we don't have a full set of stats from the DEL or all the European leagues. They are out there just not readily available.
Also comparing across the leagues is not obvious

 

[Liver King]

really dont think theres much C there.. how many top prospects were wingers in there draft year and then Centers in the NHL?

I think it's a pretty common thing for guys playing first year in the men's league. Didn't guys like Kotkaniemi and Zibby play a lot on the wing in their draft years? I could be wrong

But to your point, I think Stutzle can play center no problem - but he could be a better winger

 

[The Lukeman]

It reads the same way comparing Strome and Zibanejad’s #’s in their draft years would, which really doesn’t do anything when comparing the two, and of course Stutzle isn’t playing SH minutes, it’s not being talked about because he was a 17 year old in a professional hockey league, why would he be playing SH minutes? If Byfield were in that league, his numbers would be lower in every category, and he’d have no SH minutes either.

I’d rather Byfield as well, but those numbers don’t help me come to any kind of conclusion or comparison.

To defend that statement about the PK, both Peterka and Reichel did see some PK time throughout the year. It was not supposed to be a major talking point about Stutzle. I believe I could have worded that sentence better to remove the bias and implications.

In the statistical comparison, it was more to compare Byfield with his peers in the CHL. He had more primary points per 60 than Lafreniere and Rossi, despite having less power play production. Its hard to compare Stutzle and Byfield, but it's pretty easy to make statistical comparisons with Byfield vs Lafreniere. The fact that Byfield is either competitive or beating Lafreniere (arguably the 4th best draft pick in the last decade) in some of these major statistical categories has merit.

The comparison I made between Byfield and Stutzle had to do with primary points and power play production. Yes, I understand that it is more like comparing apples to oranges. But I tried my best to remove those differences and you cannot dismiss that they had different types of production. Byfield relied more on Even strength play and Stutzle converted more on the power play. There is no positive or negative to either player here. I was just pointing that out.

To me, the difference here was primary production. 17% of Byfield's production was secondary assists (14 of 82), while 38% of Stutzle's production came from secondary assists (13 of 34). All but 1 of those secondary assists consisted of Stutzle either shooting at the goalies chest or just passing the puck to the point. This isn't to say that Stutzle is going to do the same thing in the NHL, because I don't think he will. But you have to get an understanding of what the production it is. Its easy to look at 34 points and say it's great. Statistically speaking, I think Raymond was more impressive than Stutzle when considering the SHL is much better than the DEL and comparing their primary production per 60.

If Byfield and Stutzle switched shoes, who would have better production? You say Byfield's numbers would be lower. I don't think it's possible to make those assertions. Way too many factors play into how a season is. I could see your point. Stutzle made money on the powerplay, while Byfield does not have a proven track record. Byfield gets more production in transition and the DEL is not built for that. But Byfield was shooting 27%, Stutzle was shooting 5.3%, which is worse than any other European prospect in the top 15 in recent years. Raymond, Holtz, Reichel, and Peterka all had a significantly better shooting percentage than Stutzle, despite either playing in a more difficult league or having way less power play time/offesnive zone starts.

That is just one indicator. This is not the whole picture. There are plenty of other points to be made about both of these talented players. I hope this did a better job of explaining my data points. Feel free to agree or disagree with my points. They are are my opinions, not facts.

Yes Strome and Zibanejad's numbers are similar. I'm interested in seeing the deeper analytics of their respective production. Zibanejad was scoring .34 ppg as a 17 yo in the SHL. Strome was 1.63 ppg in the OHL his draft year. It is hard to make a comparison of these 4 players without diving deeper into their draft year.

There are probably 4 or 5 big data posts that I dropped in that thread. This one was the latests one.

 

[BondraTime]

To defend that statement about the PK, both Peterka and Reichel did see some PK time throughout the year. It was not supposed to be a major talking point about Stutzle. I believe I could have worded that sentence better to remove the bias and implications.

In the statistical comparison, it was more to compare Byfield with his peers in the CHL. He had more primary points per 60 than Lafreniere and Rossi, despite having less power play production. Its hard to compare Stutzle and Byfield, but it's pretty easy to make statistical comparisons with Byfield vs Lafreniere. The fact that Byfield is either competitive or beating Lafreniere (arguably the 4th best draft pick in the last decade) in some of these major statistical categories has merit.

The comparison I made between Byfield and Stutzle had to do with primary points and power play production. Yes, I understand that it is more like comparing apples to oranges. But I tried my best to remove those differences and you cannot dismiss that they had different types of production. Byfield relied more on Even strength play and Stutzle converted more on the power play. There is no positive or negative to either player here. I was just pointing that out.

To me, the difference here was primary production. 17% of Byfield's production was secondary assists (14 of 82), while 38% of Stutzle's production came from secondary assists (13 of 34). All but 1 of those secondary assists consisted of Stutzle either shooting at the goalies chest or just passing the puck to the point. This isn't to say that Stutzle is going to do the same thing in the NHL, because I don't think he will. But you have to get an understanding of what the production it is. Its easy to look at 34 points and say it's great. Statistically speaking, I think Raymond was more impressive than Stutzle when considering the SHL is much better than the DEL and comparing their primary production per 60.

If Byfield and Stutzle switched shoes, who would have better production? You say Byfield's numbers would be lower. I don't think it's possible to make those assertions. Way too many factors play into how a season is. I could see your point. Stutzle made money on the powerplay, while Byfield does not have a proven track record. Byfield gets more production in transition and the DEL is not built for that. But Byfield was shooting 27%, Stutzle was shooting 5.3%, which is worse than any other European prospect in the top 15 in recent years. Raymond, Holtz, Reichel, and Peterka all had a significantly better shooting percentage than Stutzle, despite either playing in a more difficult league or having way less power play time/offesnive zone starts.

That is just one indicator. This is not the whole picture. There are plenty of other points to be made about both of these talented players. I hope this did a better job of explaining my data points. Feel free to agree or disagree with my points. They are are my opinions, not facts.

Yes Strome and Zibanejad's numbers are similar. I'm interested in seeing the deeper analytics of their respective production. Zibanejad was scoring .34 ppg as a 17 yo in the SHL. Strome was 1.63 ppg in the OHL his draft year. It is hard to make a comparison of these 4 players without diving deeper into their draft year.

There are probably 4 or 5 big data posts that I dropped in that thread. This one was the latests one.

Which is where projection comes into place.

He had a lower shot % than Peterka and Reichel while scoring the same amount as a 17 year old. Is that a negative, or a positive? Don’t think any scout would look at that as a negative of a 17 year old kid. He’s creating shots for himself, and putting up points in transferable ways. That stat doesn’t have the effect on what scouts see that you think it does.

As well as the secondary and primary, doesn’t have a big mark on what scouts are seeing, especially on a kid in the CHL compared to a kid in the DEL. Seider just put up a better season in the AHL than he did in the DEL, what would his stats have looked like compared to Harley’s or York’s last year?

They are going to be compared and scrutinized by scouts for the next 4 months, these stats aren’t going to be comparing points in meetings other than showing what each other’s are.

 

[JungleBeat]

I still think Raymond is going to end up being better than Stutzle. He would have done just as good if he was in the DEL.

 

[StephenReis]

I agree that Raymond has tremendous upside and very well might be as good or even better than Stützle. Byfield + Raymond is my absolute dream coming out of the draft. We’d be set up so well with how much talent they have.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

I did a draftism just now... let me know how I did:

#3 Stutzle C (Nothing needs to be said)

#5 Raymond LW/RW (Nothing needs to be said)

#18 Noel Gunler LW/RW (could've had Jarvis but didn't want another small forward - Gunler is big with a killer shot)

#33 Wallinder LD (Schneider and Guhle were both gone in the teens and Poirier went 24th - Wallinder is big and loves to rush the puck - defense needs work).

#49 Helge Grans RD (Big Swedish d-man - smart but lacks physicality)

#50 Makhamadullin LD (Great skating puck moving d-man that might think he is too cool for school)

#53 Jake Neighbours LW (Gritty forward - limited offense - Lazar?)

#64 Jaromir Pytlik C (Big power forward - battles hard)

#79 Dylan Peterson C (Physical power center - untapped offense)

#95 Brandon Coe RW (I wanted Nico Daws but he went right before this pick - Coe is a power forward that skates well)

#152 Ethan Cardwell C (Grinding forward - limited offense)

#158 Blake Biondi C (U.S. high school forward absolutely killed all competition this year)

#185 Devon Levi G (Smallish Carleton Place goalie - good stats).

 

[Six Assets]

On Byfield,

“He seems to be melting every time he is on a bigger stage. He would make me a bit nervous as a top three pick.” - NHL Scout, January 2020

 

[BondraTime]

I did a draftism just now... let me know how I did:

#3 Stutzle C (Nothing needs to be said)

#5 Raymond LW/RW (Nothing needs to be said)

#18 Noel Gunler LW/RW (could've had Jarvis but didn't want another small forward - Gunler is big with a killer shot)

#33 Wallinder LD (Schneider and Guhle were both gone in the teens and Poirier went 24th - Wallinder is big and loves to rush the puck - defense needs work).

#49 Helge Grans RD (Big Swedish d-man - smart but lacks physicality)

#50 Makhamadullin LD (Great skating puck moving d-man that might think he is too cool for school)

#53 Jake Neighbours LW (Gritty forward - limited offense - Lazar?)

#64 Jaromir Pytlik C (Big power forward - battles hard)

#79 Dylan Peterson C (Physical power center - untapped offense)

#95 Brandon Coe RW (I wanted Nico Daws but he went right before this pick - Coe is a power forward that skates well)

#152 Ethan Cardwell C (Grinding forward - limited offense)

#158 Blake Biondi C (U.S. high school forward absolutely killed all competition this year)

#185 Devon Levi G (Smallish Carleton Place goalie - good stats).

Really good second round, 1st round is great until Gunler, though he’s a fine pick, I wouldn’t think of taking him before Jarvis but that’s only my view. Perfectly fine with a late round stab at a goalie. Like Pytlik and would be glad to have him in the 3rd.

Not a fan of Peterson or Coe, but they should be selected around those areas. Have only see a small amount of Cardwell earlier the season and wasn’t paying any attention to him so I’m ambivalent as I don’t know anything about him.

Likewise with Biondi, haven’t seen him whatsoever so am ambivalent to that pick as well. Would be fine with either guy should they be picked.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I did a draftism just now... let me know how I did:

#3 Stutzle C (Nothing needs to be said)

#5 Raymond LW/RW (Nothing needs to be said)

#18 Noel Gunler LW/RW (could've had Jarvis but didn't want another small forward - Gunler is big with a killer shot)

#33 Wallinder LD (Schneider and Guhle were both gone in the teens and Poirier went 24th - Wallinder is big and loves to rush the puck - defense needs work).

#49 Helge Grans RD (Big Swedish d-man - smart but lacks physicality)

#50 Makhamadullin LD (Great skating puck moving d-man that might think he is too cool for school)

#53 Jake Neighbours LW (Gritty forward - limited offense - Lazar?)

#64 Jaromir Pytlik C (Big power forward - battles hard)

#79 Dylan Peterson C (Physical power center - untapped offense)

#95 Brandon Coe RW (I wanted Nico Daws but he went right before this pick - Coe is a power forward that skates well)

#152 Ethan Cardwell C (Grinding forward - limited offense)

#158 Blake Biondi C (U.S. high school forward absolutely killed all competition this year)

#185 Devon Levi G (Smallish Carleton Place goalie - good stats).

I like your 1st round
Would not take Shakir .. in the 2nd round; I'd probably avoid him all together
Pytlik ok not in the 2nd for me
Peterson .. definitely be looking at other options but he has some nice raw tools
Coe is a good pick at 95 - he will go earlier
Cardwell is a good pick at 152 - he will go earlier
Biondi - why not as a flyer
Levi .. I guess I probably would not draft a goalie but if you want one 185 is a good spot.


Just did one for fun
3. Stutzle C/LW
5. Raymond RW/LW
21. Jarvis RW
33. Khusnutdinov C - check him out if you don't know him; Pageau on steroids
49. Grans RD
52. Colangelo RW Big Power forward on the right side. Good bookend for Tkachuk that can play .
55. Jarventie LW Big bodied raw , young aug 02, Can score
64. Weisblatt RW First round talent.. Can drive a line
74. Ovchinnikov LW very quick playmaker good skills
95. Robins C - way underrated in a lot of places.. snarly , good offense . reminds me of Gallagher
152. Krutil RD -- No idea big bodied 2 way RD .. flyer
158 Glotzl LD -- No idea big bodied 2 way LD flyer .. teams will dread when Krutil and Glotzl come to town
185 Trineyev RW -- 6'3 March 02 bd, Power forward out of the MHL .. never saw him..

Crazy amount of picks.

 

[Liver King]

Nice clip

 

[Senscore]

I still think Raymond is going to end up being better than Stutzle. He would have done just as good if he was in the DEL.

I wouldn't mind drafting both, just to make sure.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Just did one for fun
3. Stutzle C/LW
5. Raymond RW/LW
21. Jarvis RW
33. Khusnutdinov C - check him out if you don't know him; Pageau on steroids
49. Grans RD
52. Colangelo RW Big Power forward on the right side. Good bookend for Tkachuk that can play .
55. Jarventie LW Big bodied raw , young aug 02, Can score
64. Weisblatt RW First round talent.. Can drive a line
74. Ovchinnikov LW very quick playmaker good skills
95. Robins C - way underrated in a lot of places.. snarly , good offense . reminds me of Gallagher
152. Krutil RD -- No idea big bodied 2 way RD .. flyer
158 Glotzl LD -- No idea big bodied 2 way LD flyer .. teams will dread when Krutil and Glotzl come to town
185 Trineyev RW -- 6'3 March 02 bd, Power forward out of the MHL .. never saw him..

Crazy amount of picks.

Khusnutdinov and Weisblatt are interesting options.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I wouldn't mind drafting both, just to make sure.

They would be so much fun to watch.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Khusnutdinov and Weisblatt are interesting options.

I really like both those players. Great motors

 

[StephenReis]

On Byfield,

“He seems to be melting every time he is on a bigger stage. He would make me a bit nervous as a top three pick.” - NHL Scout, January 2020

This entire narrative is so overblown. People are overreacting to his World Juniors performance. He was 17 and had a limited role. I don’t call that melting at all. You’d expect that from someone his age and maybe we shouldn’t base prospects off a 7 game sample size on a stacked roster with limited opportunities.

 

[Six Assets]

On Byfield,

“He seems to be melting every time he is on a bigger stage. He would make me a bit nervous as a top three pick.” - NHL Scout, January 2020

From the nhl draft black book. Good read, Lots of quotes from nhl scouts, will try provide summaries later.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I did a draftism just now... let me know how I did:

#3 Stutzle C (Nothing needs to be said)

#5 Raymond LW/RW (Nothing needs to be said)

#18 Noel Gunler LW/RW (could've had Jarvis but didn't want another small forward - Gunler is big with a killer shot)

#33 Wallinder LD (Schneider and Guhle were both gone in the teens and Poirier went 24th - Wallinder is big and loves to rush the puck - defense needs work).

#49 Helge Grans RD (Big Swedish d-man - smart but lacks physicality)

#50 Makhamadullin LD (Great skating puck moving d-man that might think he is too cool for school)

#53 Jake Neighbours LW (Gritty forward - limited offense - Lazar?)

#64 Jaromir Pytlik C (Big power forward - battles hard)

#79 Dylan Peterson C (Physical power center - untapped offense)

#95 Brandon Coe RW (I wanted Nico Daws but he went right before this pick - Coe is a power forward that skates well)

#152 Ethan Cardwell C (Grinding forward - limited offense)

#158 Blake Biondi C (U.S. high school forward absolutely killed all competition this year)

#185 Devon Levi G (Smallish Carleton Place goalie - good stats).

Maybe a it early for gunler.

you took some nice swings on wallinder and grans.

peterson there is nice.
I’ve heard some not so good things on makamadullin but I mean clearly you’re swinging their in the second like I said haha.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I like your 1st round
Would not take Shakir .. in the 2nd round; I'd probably avoid him all together
Pytlik ok not in the 2nd for me
Peterson .. definitely be looking at other options but he has some nice raw tools
Coe is a good pick at 95 - he will go earlier
Cardwell is a good pick at 152 - he will go earlier
Biondi - why not as a flyer
Levi .. I guess I probably would not draft a goalie but if you want one 185 is a good spot.


Just did one for fun
3. Stutzle C/LW
5. Raymond RW/LW
21. Jarvis RW
33. Khusnutdinov C - check him out if you don't know him; Pageau on steroids
49. Grans RD
52. Colangelo RW Big Power forward on the right side. Good bookend for Tkachuk that can play .
55. Jarventie LW Big bodied raw , young aug 02, Can score
64. Weisblatt RW First round talent.. Can drive a line
74. Ovchinnikov LW very quick playmaker good skills
95. Robins C - way underrated in a lot of places.. snarly , good offense . reminds me of Gallagher
152. Krutil RD -- No idea big bodied 2 way RD .. flyer
158 Glotzl LD -- No idea big bodied 2 way LD flyer .. teams will dread when Krutil and Glotzl come to town
185 Trineyev RW -- 6'3 March 02 bd, Power forward out of the MHL .. never saw him..

Crazy amount of picks.

Stutzle raymond Khus Robbins I’m ready.

 

[TheDebater]

Nice clip

Imagine the team who wins the #1 overall decides to go with Stuzle instead of Lafreniere?

Would that be a shocker or would some people shrug it off and say that they are not surprised it happened?

Wonder how L.A would feel about that.

 

[milkbag]

Imagine the team who wins the #1 overall decides to go with Stuzle instead of Lafreniere?

Would that be a shocker or would some people shrug it off and say that they are not surprised it happened?

Wonder how L.A would feel about that.

Theres no way Montreal passes on Lafreniere

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Imagine the team who wins the #1 overall decides to go with Stuzle instead of Lafreniere?

Would that be a shocker or would some people shrug it off and say that they are not surprised it happened?

Wonder how L.A would feel about that.

It would be an absolute shocker. An unrealistic one

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I took a stab at the draft sim thing. It is missing a handful of prospects that I would look to target in the later rounds but overall it is interesting to try to make the best choices based on the players available. There were a few prospects that I passed on that could have given me maybe a bit more skill but overall I am pretty happy with the players I got. Here were my selections:

#3: Quinton Byfield C 6'4 214 lbs
#5: Jake Sanderson LD 6'1 185 lbs
#21: Marat Khusnutdinov C 5'11 176 lbs
#33: Jake Neighbours LW 5'11 201 lbs
#49: Vasili Ponomaryov C 6' 176 lbs
#52: Alexander Nikishin LD 6'3 196 lbs
#55: Will Cuylle LW 6'2 201 lbs
#64: Jaromir Pytlik C 6'3 196 lbs
#74: Maxim Groshev RW 6'2 194 lbs
#95: Yegor Sokolov LW 6'4 240 lbs
#152: Grant Slukynsky C 6' 190 lbs
#158: Blake Biondi C 6' 181 lbs
#185: Victor Mancini RD 6'3 201 lbs

Overall I am very confident in the upside of that group and the probability that I not only get a large percentage of NHL players but actually a large percentage of impact players.