Speculation: 2020-2021 General Lightning Discussion - Defending Champions Edition

[Byrddog]

True although that didn’t stop smaller guys like Richards or Callahan to drive the net consistently. Gourde does it sometimes and I think it’s in Coleman’s DNA too but I think the issue is more that we have a different mind set and game plan: we’re a finesse team trying to do quick passes and back door goals. That’s not been successful though so we opt for the pass back to the blue line and have Hedman or Cernak send it either wide or into the goalies’ chest.

Your correct and smaller centers do not matter when you have Kuch on one line and Stammer on the other to finish those passes. Point should be a PPG guy but the missing wings have held that back. Palat is about where he usually is with goals but his asst's are up. Killorn is down and this has hurt but with Stammer out two two point games in the last 4 so when he needed to he seems to have stepped up.

Finish has been a struggle recently the last 4 goal game we have had was March 21 a month ago. It started to drop when the D started getting banged up the the loss of the Captain has prolonged it. 3rd and 4th line have done well but the top 6 have struggled. Joseph the entire month of April has 1 goal and 1 asst which has earned his demotion. Since March 7 Cirelli has 2 goals and 4 asst. Both these guys have to be better. The rotation of rookies is a mixed bag Colton has done really well some will say great, ABB has no business in the top 6 he has been ion the system long enough to at least busted the scoresheet in the number of games he has had, and Point and Palat have visibly tried to help the guy. Injury to Stephens still leaves us asking about him.

In Vasi we trust we have to because right now there is nothing behind him and the compressed schedule has effected him. Since March 27 he has faced less than 30 shots just three times. He lost 3 of those 11 games. The talking heads do not mention this but fatigue has been a factor. Yes he will still win the Veznia but we are beating the guy up just before the playoffs with so much work. We want to rest Heddy but we need to rest Vasi. But hell the offense is hurting right now and McElhinney has been shelled all year with his last win March 21 and prior to that a win Feb 25.

We have to have Stammer and Kuch back soon to settle the team down. The down players have not been able to step up at all minus Colton.

 

[These Are The Days]

we miss the much maligned kucherov cross ice pass, imo

How dare you assume what I think. Good day sir!

 

[The Gongshow]

This^, our PP is worrying. Without the threat of Hammer Time on the left, Palat can’t do anything. He has 12 goals, 7 of them have been on the PP when Stamkos was playing. Same case with Kuch, without the threat of his one timer from the right or a lethal x-ice pass to Stamkos lurking on the left or to Point in the slot we’re watching a team running out of options right now.

God our #1 unit is so damn stacked when healthy. Lethal 1 timers on either side, Point in the slot, Hedman has actually been hitting the net the past year. Can't wait for that to be a thing again. Hoping Kuch comes back ready to go, even though his first game or two might be sloppy af

 

[Sky04]

Looks like we'll be playing Florida, neither team will likely catch Carolina right now. With the way the defense is playing lately we're going to have a hard time shutting them down, need to get the offense going.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Looks like we'll be playing Florida, neither team will likely catch Carolina right now. With the way the defense is playing lately we're going to have a hard time shutting them down, need to get the offense going.

I am weirdly not worried. I think the guys just want to get to the playoffs.

I see the switch being turned on and us being a hard out.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

If we have issues with Florida we have no business winning the cup. They play a good system but their defense is banged up. They've had guys like Weegar and Forsling step up in Ekblad's absence but I don't think it can hold up in a 7 game series. Their forward depth doesn't scream contender either. The one thing they do have this year is goaltending, if they end up going with Drieger. But he and Bob have split games this year, I'm not sure if he can handle starting every game. We've lit up Bobrovsky the last two seasons.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Looks like we'll be playing Florida, neither team will likely catch Carolina right now. With the way the defense is playing lately we're going to have a hard time shutting them down, need to get the offense going.

I don't actually think the defense is too much of a worry. It looks like Hedman is trying to do too much to compensate for the loss of Kuch and Stammer. He's trying to lead by example in the offensive and defensive zones and failing at both. But aside from that, honestly our D hasn't been too bad. Savard is still adjusting, Serge is Serge, Cernak is playing like an All Star, Schenn is dependable, McDonagh is doing pretty good.

I'm more worried about our goaltending and somewhat offense. Our goaltending has dropped significantly, without us giving that many more CF. Our SA isn't higher really that much different than normal. Our metrics against us defensively haven't really swung that much. Our goalies are letting in more pucks they normally would have stopped. I'm more concerned there personally that something is up with Vasy and we got nothing to save us with McGarbage.

Offensively the biggest glaring fact is every team we play against is clogging the middle of the zone and our best passers Stammer and Kuch are out. If you look at the charts (will post when I get home, I'm on my phone), the majority of shots in this bad last stretch are coming from the Point. Our defense is carrying our shooting and chances right now. And we are seeing the result. We prosper the best with chances generated from the slot. That is achieved by Stammer and most importantly Kuch. If we don't get them back or even 1 of them for round 1, we are completely f***ed.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I am weirdly not worried. I think the guys just want to get to the playoffs.

I see the switch being turned on and us being a hard out.

The shitty part is that you just don't know. We've been used to them just flipping a switch but it's kinda been a while since we have seen them do it at the level we are accustomed to. Granted we are out Kucherov and Stamkos but they are gonna come back in the midst of the playoffs. Gonna be some working back I would imagine. Even if not the rest of the team kinda needs to get back it again too. I dont know, I like the optimism. Just hope for the best I guess.

 

[These Are The Days]

I don't actually think the defense is too much of a worry. It looks like Hedman is trying to do too much to compensate for the loss of Kuch and Stammer. He's trying to lead by example in the offensive and defensive zones and failing at both. But aside from that, honestly our D hasn't been too bad. Savard is still adjusting, Serge is Serge, Cernak is playing like an All Star, Schenn is dependable, McDonagh is doing pretty good.

I'm more worried about our goaltending and somewhat offense. Our goaltending has dropped significantly, without us giving that many more CF. Our SA isn't higher really that much different than normal. Our metrics against us defensively haven't really swung that much. Our goalies are letting in more pucks they normally would have stopped. I'm more concerned there personally that something is up with Vasy and we got nothing to save us with McGarbage.

Offensively the biggest glaring fact is every team we play against is clogging the middle of the zone and our best passers Stammer and Kuch are out. If you look at the charts (will post when I get home, I'm on my phone), the majority of shots in this bad last stretch are coming from the Point. Our defense is carrying our shooting and chances right now. And we are seeing the result. We prosper the best with chances generated from the slot. That is achieved by Stammer and most importantly Kuch. If we don't get them back or even 1 of them for round 1, we are completely f***ed.

An easy adjustment for that would be to cycle from behind the net as opposed to over the top at the blue line. It's not like guys like Gourde and Point can't nest in the slot and take shots either. I know we've tried in game many times and just resort from shooting from the deep but we need to keep at it. It's not like it never worked before

 

[J T Money]

I hope getting their rings yesterday flips the switch for them - need to get a matching one

 

[DistantThunderRep]

An easy adjustment for that would be to cycle from behind the net as opposed to over the top at the blue line. It's not like guys like Gourde and Point can't nest in the slot and take shots either. I know we've tried in game many times and just resort from shooting from the deep but we need to keep at it. It's not like it never worked before

The issue with having Point or Gourde in the slot is that they are typically the ones digging the puck out behind the net lately. They are only ones actually working behind the net and the boards and everyone else is just hanging around the perimeter or high in the slot on their backhand. It's frustrating as hell to watch. Cirelli and Palat would normally being digging pucks out but Cirelli has completely disappeared and Palat has decided he wants to be a shooter now. Both of them are most effective digging and playing the dirty positions. Everything with our offensive is a complete mess.

 

[bov]

We end the regular season with 2 games against the Panthers, could be a really fun first round matchup if that's how it ends up.

 

[Sky04]

We end the regular season with 2 games against the Panthers, could be a really fun first round matchup if that's how it ends up.

Unless the standards change considerably I would sit all the regulars out those 2 games the younger guys can get a good skate in but without a fully healthy lineup we don't have an edge, don't want to have a mental disadvantage if Florida takes us to the cleaners those 2 games.

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I don't actually think the defense is too much of a worry. It looks like Hedman is trying to do too much to compensate for the loss of Kuch and Stammer. He's trying to lead by example in the offensive and defensive zones and failing at both. But aside from that, honestly our D hasn't been too bad. Savard is still adjusting, Serge is Serge, Cernak is playing like an All Star, Schenn is dependable, McDonagh is doing pretty good.

I'm more worried about our goaltending and somewhat offense. Our goaltending has dropped significantly, without us giving that many more CF. Our SA isn't higher really that much different than normal. Our metrics against us defensively haven't really swung that much. Our goalies are letting in more pucks they normally would have stopped. I'm more concerned there personally that something is up with Vasy and we got nothing to save us with McGarbage.

Offensively the biggest glaring fact is every team we play against is clogging the middle of the zone and our best passers Stammer and Kuch are out. If you look at the charts (will post when I get home, I'm on my phone), the majority of shots in this bad last stretch are coming from the Point. Our defense is carrying our shooting and chances right now. And we are seeing the result. We prosper the best with chances generated from the slot. That is achieved by Stammer and most importantly Kuch. If we don't get them back or even 1 of them for round 1, we are completely f***ed.

Vasi has been incredible. What are you talking about?

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

IMO the biggest concern is that Point doesn't look like himself. Is he injured? Will he flick a switch? What's going on?

Obviously he misses Kucherov, but Point has been pretty meh

 

[LightningStrikes]

IMO the biggest concern is that Point doesn't look like himself. Is he injured? Will he flick a switch? What's going on?

Obviously he misses Kucherov, but Point has been pretty meh

Point is a great finisher but if nobody is making the play or can handle his passes... Kuch and him were deadly.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Vasi has been incredible. What are you talking about?

Statistically, in the last 11 games of the team, he's been playing worse. By a margin that is noticeable. Without us giving up that much more HDCF or CA. If you want to keep the blinders on, sure. He's been fantastic, but he's been giving up more goals than his standard this season in this bad stretch, without facing more than average shots and high danger chances.

 

[The Gongshow]

Point is a great finisher but if nobody is making the play or can handle his passes... Kuch and him were deadly.

Point has also been known to go through slumps at times. He's had 4 back-to-back season of 20+ goals now, and had 18 in his first season. He's been a pretty consistent goal scorer for us. 39 points in 47 games so far this year as well isn't bad.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Statistically, in the last 11 games of the team, he's been playing worse. By a margin that is noticeable. Without us giving up that much more HDCF or CA. If you want to keep the blinders on, sure. He's been fantastic, but he's been giving up more goals than his standard this season in this bad stretch, without facing more than average shots and high danger chances.

Well, on the other hand, wasn't Vasi performing at some absurd, Hasek-esque levels earlier in the season? Unless he's the second coming of The Dominator himself, there was no place to go but down from those numbers.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Well, on the other hand, wasn't Vasi performing at some absurd, Hasek-esque levels earlier in the season? Unless he's the second coming of The Dominator himself, there was no place to go but down from those numbers.

Yeah, but it wasn't like we were giving up a huge amount of danger for him to be constantly standing on his head. It's just recently he's been letting in goals that he used be able stop, consistently. It's a noticeable drop off is all I'm saying, and it's trending in a bad way. If we get downswing Vasy with our offense being drier than the Sahara, then we have a recipe for disaster.

 

[Byrddog]

Point has also been known to go through slumps at times. He's had 4 back-to-back season of 20+ goals now, and had 18 in his first season. He's been a pretty consistent goal scorer for us. 39 points in 47 games so far this year as well isn't bad.

Considering what point has been thru this year 39 points is pretty good. He misses Kuch moving him to the right side to try and snipe like Kuch has not worked. Point has his game and it does not include sniping from the circle like Kuch and Stammer. I will be glad like everyone else when those two are back and we can again see a potent offense. Don't get me wrong I like what Gourdes line does but relying on them night in and night out is not sustainable for this team. We have to have the top 9 clicking like htey did last year from the deadline thru the playoffs to get to the finals. It is going to be a war against Carolina in particular.

 

[CupsOverCash]

There was a version of Vasi earlier this season where I said if we get that vasi in the playoffs we will be tough to beat. Haven't seen it in a while but I know it exists. We say that about a few of our players. All that really matters is that they show up in the playoffs cause if we get the version of the team now we aren't going far. I think they probably know that but at the same time it would be good to get some consistency going before the playoffs. Definitely makes you feel better as a fan.

 

[Stelio Kontos]

18-21-86
17-71-91
19-37-20
14-79-7

is this going to be the lineup when everyone is healthy? Sorry stupid question but I have not been able to keep up at all due to work

 

[Sky04]

18-21-86
17-71-91
19-37-20
14-79-7

is this going to be the lineup when everyone is healthy? Sorry stupid question but I have not been able to keep up at all due to work

Stamkos and Palat could switch too, they haven't been able to run that stacked top line in over a year.