B-Sens 2020-2021 Belleville Senators

[GCK]

Didn't say anything about badmouthing.

No you didn’t. I should have said it’s not surprising he is talking up a paying client.

 

[StoicSensFan]

I don’t necessarily blame Logan, My impression is that his father is very involved. Some guys just take longer to mature.

Weird situation... the guy did play 700+ games in the NHL.

I really hope he proves himself and gets his chance.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I’ll take your word on the stats as you have provided some stats. I do know our shots for per game are up by 2 and our shots against are down by 2 in a much more offensive division. As for speed Duclair and Stuetzle may be a wash. I think Norris is similar to Pageau but it’s most guys like Batherson, White and Paul are playing with more pace this year IMO. When we have Chabot, Reilly, Brann, Zaitsev, Zub and Gudbranson playing we have much better pace than the likes of Hainsey Boro and Goloubef.

The D group is a collection of better skaters than the previous one but I don't know if I'd say they play with noticeably more pace in their game. They can skate well but most guys can't make simple passes and efficiently break out of the defensive zone, so the skating doesn't really matter because the puck doesn't move.

I think this group has more potential to do that on given night but guys like Brannstrom and Zub needs to play more to achieve that.

 

[GCK]

The D group is a collection of better skaters than the previous one but I don't know if I'd say they play with noticeably more pace in their game. They can skate well but most guys can't make simple passes and efficiently break out of the defensive zone, so the skating doesn't really matter because the puck doesn't move.

I think this group has more potential to do that on given night but guys like Brannstrom and Zub needs to play more to achieve that.

It’s mostly with the forwards. They move better as a group. Just how I see it and I get it if others see it differently.

 

[Xspyrit]

I’ve never really cared much about the record of the AHL team unless we have a lot of prospects leading the team. As for the NHL team we are much better than last year IMO so while the record isn’t great I’m very hyped to see them progress.

I don't care as much about the AHL team record when the NHL team is good or at least competing. When you're rebuilding, it becomes a top priority, you need to create a good environnement for your prospects where they will learn and be shown the way by some good veterans and a good coaching staff. Remember 2010-11? We had our first struggle in 2008-09 since the inception years, Murray totally built the prospect pipeline almost from scratch after he became GM in 2008 and we won the Calder 3 years later.

Recent picks Lehner, Zack Smith, Hoffman, Cowen, Wiercioch, Borowiecki, etc played a role in the Calder Cup run, but Murray also brought in Potulny, Andre Benoit, Keller, Butler, etc to make the team even stronger.

I’ll take your word on the stats as you have provided some stats. I do know our shots for per game are up by 2 and our shots against are down by 2 in a much more offensive division. As for speed Duclair and Stuetzle may be a wash. I think Norris is similar to Pageau but it’s most guys like Batherson, White and Paul are playing with more pace this year IMO. When we have Chabot, Reilly, Brann, Zaitsev, Zub and Gudbranson playing we have much better pace than the likes of Hainsey Boro and Goloubef.

Number of shots is kinda misleading and meaningless. The stats that FQL provided demonstrate that the quality of the shots we take is kinda similar a last year. Good thing our corsi has imrpoved a bit but that doesn't mean much when you see some floaters we throw at the net compared to the glorious chances and auto-goals against we give up.

Our offense is not that bad, it's our defense that is beyond terrible. I know some people want to think it's the goalies but that is total denial IMO.

There's some positives, and the positive is that Chabot, Tkachuk, Batherson, Stutzle, Norris, Zub, Paul and Connor Brown are all players that could/should be part of a better team. White is proving that he is a decent NHLer too, just a bit overpaid. Also care about Brannstrom, Wolanin and of course the goalies... The rest, not so much.

 

[GCK]

I don't care as much about the AHL team record when the NHL team is good or at least competing. When you're rebuilding, it becomes a top priority, you need to create a good environnement for your prospects where they will learn and be shown the way by some good veterans and a good coaching staff. Remember 2010-11? We had our first struggle in 2008-09 since the inception years, Murray totally built the prospect pipeline almost from scratch after he became GM in 2008 and we won the Calder 3 years later.

Recent picks Lehner, Zack Smith, Hoffman, Cowen, Wiercioch, Borowiecki, etc played a role in the Calder Cup run, but Murray also brought in Potulny, Andre Benoit, Keller, Butler, etc to make the team even stronger.

That run was the equivalent of Belleville last year.
This year the BSens are an example of what happens when your best prospects graduate. The BSens went 29-40 the year after the championship when their best players graduated.

 

[GCK]

I don't care as much about the AHL team record when the NHL team is good or at least competing. When you're rebuilding, it becomes a top priority, you need to create a good environnement for your prospects where they will learn and be shown the way by some good veterans and a good coaching staff. Remember 2010-11? We had our first struggle in 2008-09 since the inception years, Murray totally built the prospect pipeline almost from scratch after he became GM in 2008 and we won the Calder 3 years later.

Recent picks Lehner, Zack Smith, Hoffman, Cowen, Wiercioch, Borowiecki, etc played a role in the Calder Cup run, but Murray also brought in Potulny, Andre Benoit, Keller, Butler, etc to make the team even stronger.



Number of shots is kinda misleading and meaningless. The stats that FQL provided demonstrate that the quality of the shots we take is kinda similar a last year.

Our offense is not that bad, it's our defense that is beyond terrible. I know some people want to think it's the goalies but that is total denial IMO.

The fact that our shots against is down over 2+ per game from last year in a much better division offensively is a positive. FQL didn’t post any atats related to the defensive side of the game or at least it looked like that.

As for being in total denial, if you don’t think our terrible goaltending at the start of the season had an impact on anything you are definitely the one in Denial lol.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

The fact that our shots against is down over 2+ per game from last year in a much better division offensively is a positive. FQL didn’t post any atats related to the defensive side of the game or at least it looked like that.

As for being in total denial, if you don’t think our terrible goaltending at the start of the season had an impact on anything you are definitely the one in Denial lol.

Those numbers are percentages. They're not explicitly defensive stats but they show we give up more chances than we get.

 

[Micklebot]

The fact that our shots against is down over 2+ per game from last year in a much better division offensively is a positive. FQL didn’t post any atats related to the defensive side of the game or at least it looked like that.

As for being in total denial, if you don’t think our terrible goaltending at the start of the season had an impact on anything you are definitely the one in Denial lol.

I think part of our shots agai st being down might be score effect. I haven't dug into it but it feels like we've been blown out a lot more this year and teams take their foot off the gas when the game is out of reach.

Honestly, to me the eye test seems like there are a lot more breakdowns in our own end until the game is out of reach followed by just going through the motions.

 

[GCK]

Those numbers are percentages. They're not explicitly defensive stats but they show we give up more chances than we get.

So I took a look at some advanced stats with my layman’s eye.
In 2019-20 over 71 games we scored 6 goals less than expected and gave up 18 goals more than expected.

This year in only 26 games we have scored exactly at our expected goals for and have given up a whopping 24 goals above expected. Now as I have said I’m no expert but that leads me to believe our defensive record may be mostly based on terrible goaltending.

 

[GCK]

I think part of our shots agai st being down might be score effect. I haven't dug into it but it feels like we've been blown out a lot more this year and teams take their foot off the gas when the game is out of reach.

Honestly, to me the eye test seems like there are a lot more breakdowns in our own end until the game is out of reach followed by just going through the motions.

I did some digging.
In games decided by 2 goals or less we have given up 31.5 shots per game. In all games it is 31.4.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I think part of our shots agai st being down might be score effect. I haven't dug into it but it feels like we've been blown out a lot more this year and teams take their foot off the gas when the game is out of reach.

Honestly, to me the eye test seems like there are a lot more breakdowns in our own end until the game is out of reach followed by just going through the motions.

We have the most scoring chances for while trailing in the league at 279, 50.45% as a percentage, which would be good for 27th in the NHL. HDCF while trailing also #1 at 105, 49.76% (22nd). xGF while trailing 24.76 (#1), xGF% while trailing 50.71 (22nd). This is in 608:49 5 on 5 minutes (1st).

Compared to last year while trailing: 686 SCF (1), 51.66 SCF% (21st), 60.44 xGF (1st), 52.62 xGF% (17th), 286 HFCF (1st), 54.37 HDCF% (11th!), 5 on 5 TOI 1407:47 (2nd).

This year we average trailing hockey games about 30:20 minutes per game. Last year 25:20. For comparison, last year the Red Wings averaged about 29:30

It's hard to argue that we're better this year. Though we are better in close games or leading, it's just incredibly rare. I think most metrics point to this team being worse or somewhat stagnant. But we are slightly younger due to the removal of Anderson and Hainsey, so that's something. I think our average age is 27 vs 28.2 last year (this is just off the top of my head, I didn't look it up like the other numbers posted).

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

So I took a look at some advanced stats with my layman’s eye.
In 2019-20 over 71 games we scored 6 goals less than expected and gave up 18 goals more than expected.

This year in only 26 games we have scored exactly at our expected goals for and have given up a whopping 24 goals above expected. Now as I have said I’m no expert but that leads me to believe our defensive record may be mostly based on terrible goaltending.

Yes, the goaltending is worse but the numbers also show we're not better defensively than last year. We're still a basement team in terms of giving up quality chances to our opponents.

 

[OD99]

I don't think anyone can be shocked how bad we are defending when you see our roster.

 

[GCK]

Yes, the goaltending is worse but the numbers also show we're not better defensively than last year. We're still a basement team in terms of giving up quality chances to our opponents.

How much of that is chasing games early in the season I wonder. I feel we have been pretty good for the most part over the last 10-14 games.

 

[Micklebot]

I did some digging.
In games decided by 2 goals or less we have given up 31.5 shots per game. In all games it is 31.4.

Score effect is less about the final score and more about the time spent while the score is close. If a team gets up big in the first period and maintains it throughout, it's very different than if a game is close for 55 mins before one team letting in 2 quick ones followed by an empty net.

Last year, we had the 12th most 5v5 time where the teams were within 1 goal of each other at 34 mins a game, this year we are dead last at 31st with 28 mins a game. our shots against while within 1 from last year to this year is pretty similar, at 32,51 this year and 32.58 last year.

What's interesting is that last year, we ranked 7th worst in 5v5 shots for per 60 at 29.73 while within 1 goal, this year, we're still getting similar shot totals at 29.81, but instead of being 7th worst, we're 13th best.

 

[GCK]

Score effect is less about the final score and more about the time spent while the score is close. If a team gets up big in the first period and maintains it throughout, it's very different than if a game is close for 55 mins before one team letting in 2 quick ones followed by an empty net.

Last year, we had the 12th most 5v5 time where the teams were within 1 goal of each other at 34 mins a game, this year we are dead last at 31st with 28 mins a game. our shots against while within 1 from last year to this year is pretty similar, at 32,51 this year and 32.58 last year.

What's interesting is that last year, we ranked 7th worst in 5v5 shots for per 60 at 29.73 while within 1 goal, this year, we're still getting similar shot totals at 29.81, but instead of being 7th worst, we're 13th best.

How are we doing at shots against in those situations.

 

[Micklebot]

How are we doing at shots against in those situations.

I already mentioned it, 32,51 per 60 mins this year (4th worst in the league) and 32.58 last year (6th worst)

 

[GCK]

I already mentioned it, 32,51 per 60 mins this year (4th worst in the league) and 32.58 last year (6th worst)

Thanks, so as I thought much better considering the offences we see every night

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Thanks, so as I thought much better considering the offences we see every night

What? Can you explain your logic here?

 

[GCK]

What? Can you explain your logic here?

Shots against are down a little as are xGA in a division with much better offences than we saw last year. No Detroit, Cali teams, Buff, etc. this year.

 

[Micklebot]

Shots against are down a little as are xGA in a division with much better offences than we saw last year. No Detroit, Cali teams, Buff, etc. this year.

After removing Ottawa from the calc, The difference in shots per game last year for teams that are now in the north division and the rest of the league is less than half a shot per game, and if by our shots against are down a little you mean down statistically insignificant amount then yes, they are down a little.

I think you are exageratting the impact our division likely makes on shot totals.

Also, when within 1 goal, our xGA is up from 2.39/60 (21st ranked) last year to 2.45/60 (29th ranked) at 5v5 this year.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I really don’t know why anyone thought we’d be any good this year, this was “the bleeding has been stemmed” year where we may not be better but you can tell we are starting the pendulum back the other way.
The team is exiting most nights, despite Dorion mostly stupid moves the core group is here and a couple more on the way.
Stay the course, next year we will start to climb out of the basement and the following year (IMO) is when I expect they make the playoffs.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

After removing Ottawa from the calc, The difference in shots per game last year for teams that are now in the north division and the rest of the league is less than half a shot per game, and if by our shots against are down a little you mean down statistically insignificant amount then yes, they are down a little.

I think you are exageratting the impact our division likely makes on shot totals.

Also, when within 1 goal, our xGA is up from 2.39/60 (21st ranked) last year to 2.45/60 (29th ranked) at 5v5 this year.

Nice work putting this together .

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I can hire Tony Greco to personally train me, but if I don’t put in the work I’ll still be fat.

Yeah but the story was that he did put in the work... you think a personal trainer just stood there while Logan downed a cheese burger and swiped on tinder. I doubt it. And I mean let’s be honest. There was a massive difference between 18-19 brown and 19-20 brown. I mean 99% of d men in the AHL simply could not handle him. In anyway. This year there does seem to be regression. I didn’t like how he was handled in the nhl last year. I bet he didn’t either. Now is that justification for Alledgedly dogging it this pst summer? No absolutely not.