Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 9

[Fistfullofbeer]

Goaltending is no longer our issue. You lose a game, 1-0, or 2-0 with an EN, and that’s not on the goalie. First game after DeBoer, and Jones let’s in 6 goals. Then again against St. Louis, 5 goals. But you look at the rest of these games and it’s 2 or 3 goals against. You really aren’t gonna beat that. NYI have the fewest GA with 100 in 38 games. That’s a 2.6 GAA. That’s really what we’ve been seeing these last few games. They’re gonna get 2-3 goals. No one in the league is really gonna do better than that.

Right now, it’s the offense. It‘a Timo, Labanc not taking that next step and showing they are top-6 players who can drive play. It’s Hertl showing that he isn’t a true top-6 center. It’s Kane failing to play within the system. It’s the PP failing to capitalize on the chances it’s given. It’s Thornton and Marleau still being our best players. It’s Burns completely ****ting the bed and forgetting how to play hockey. It’s our entire AHL roster failing to step up until recently. It’s Doug Wilson building a roster where Barclay Goodrow is your 2c. It’s a lot of things. But goaltending is no longer the anchor of this ship.

Undoubtedly. We could not score a single goal against Detroit. The team with the worst goal differential in the league and highest GA/G. A team with Burns, Karlsson, Couture, Hertl, Meier, Kane could not score one single goal. Thats pretty depressing.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

What about the elephant in the room? Tierney, Demelo, Balcers, Norris, a 1st, 2 2nds, and 11.5 MM in cap space is a lot of assets that could be used to create a deep team. DW gambled that giving up that depth for Karlsson would result in a better team. So far, it hasn’t.

 

[The Nemesis]

What about the elephant in the room? Tierney, Demelo, Balcers, Norris, a 1st, 2 2nds, and 11.5 MM in cap space is a lot of assets that could be used to create a deep team. DW gambled that giving up that depth for Karlsson would result in a better team. So far, it hasn’t.

Not wanting to wade on on the whole of the issue, but it's worth pointing out that it wouldn't be all those assets and $11.5m in cap space. Not unless you're arguing that none of those players would be counting against the cap. Rather it would be those pieces and whatever would be left of the $11.5m after you've subtracted he hits of the on-roster players. For the here and now that would likely be around $4.6m (approximately $3m for Tierney, $900k for DeMelo, $760k for Balcers). So it's more like ~$7m in cap space.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Have any of you that follow another NHL team gone through a similar experience previously when a team has a bad stretch? I’m curious how we should be taking all this as Sharks fans. I feel like we really have been spoiled over the years and don’t know how to process the current state and are expecting quick solutions when there really might not be many available options. If I see Chicago and Detroit, both franchises have been bad for multiple years. Same with Colorado till now. I know the expectations are higher here, but perhaps we should expect this to take longer to resolve?

 

[tealzamboni]

Goaltending is no longer our issue. You lose a game, 1-0, or 2-0 with an EN, and that’s not on the goalie. First game after DeBoer, and Jones let’s in 6 goals. Then again against St. Louis, 5 goals. But you look at the rest of these games and it’s 2 or 3 goals against. You really aren’t gonna beat that. NYI have the fewest GA with 100 in 38 games. That’s a 2.6 GAA. That’s really what we’ve been seeing these last few games. They’re gonna get 2-3 goals. No one in the league is really gonna do better than that.

Right now, it’s the offense. It‘a Timo, Labanc not taking that next step and showing they are top-6 players who can drive play. It’s Hertl showing that he isn’t a true top-6 center. It’s Kane failing to play within the system. It’s the PP failing to capitalize on the chances it’s given. It’s Thornton and Marleau still being our best players. It’s Burns completely ****ting the bed and forgetting how to play hockey. It’s our entire AHL roster failing to step up until recently. It’s Doug Wilson building a roster where Barclay Goodrow is your 2c. It’s a lot of things. But goaltending is no longer the anchor of this CAPSIZING ship.

Fixed

I think Boughner's shown some flashes of a quicker strike offense, but nothing consistent yet. I'm not sure why the offensive installation is lagging. I assume it's either because he's been told to focus exclusively on defense first or that he's been told to showcase guys like Goodrow, Sorensen, Dillon, Melker, and possibly Burns for trade season. Goodrow and Dillon's values may be at their peak given how much they've overachieved. And maybe Sorensen/Melker interest some team looking for (best in class) PK help. Moving some of those guys would create opportunities for guys that can handle and skate better. Maybe then, Boogie starts retooling the offense.

 

[tealzamboni]

Have any of you that follow another NHL team gone through a similar experience previously when a team has a bad stretch? I’m curious how we should be taking all this as Sharks fans. I feel like we really have been spoiled over the years and don’t know how to process the current state and are expecting quick solutions when there really might not be many available options. If I see Chicago and Detroit, both franchises have been bad for multiple years. Same with Colorado till now. I know the expectations are higher here, but perhaps we should expect this to take longer to resolve?

That's definitely a possibility.

I think there is a method to team's current madness. They seem to be trying hard to salvage their G investment. The last two games have looked promising. The defense and Jones were mostly where they needed to be and looked comfortable enough. If that continues to gel, then they've got a good chance to rebound quickly. The main question then would be how they get goals.

For that, I assume they'd have to get bigger (if they want to dominate possession with the low-high game) or quicker (if they want to play an end to end game). My guess would be the latter since EK65, Simek, Ferraro, Burns, Heed are suited for that style of play and that a lot of cuda guys do as well. At least, that seems to be the quicker path to making an offense with this group.

So, I guess the key is to see if Jones keeps building off the last couple games. If he gets his mojo back, then we just have to hope Boughner's got some plans for the offense. If Jones relapses, then DW will probably sweat more.

 

[Beethovens 10th]

Wilson Briefs Hasso

I'm sick of reading all the Debbie Downer shit on here. Let's have some fun in our death spiral! Here's my hand at a classic. Some cheap and easy gags in there, but it also reminds me of an earlier simpler time. You know, when the Sharks were good.

 

[Pistol Pete]

Wilson Briefs Hasso

I'm sick of reading all the Debbie Downer **** on here. Let's have some fun in our death spiral! Here's my hand at a classic. Some cheap and easy gags in there, but it also reminds me of an earlier simpler time. You know, when the Sharks were good.

Long live the Hoff!

 

[OrrNumber4]

What about the elephant in the room? Tierney, Demelo, Balcers, Norris, a 1st, 2 2nds, and 11.5 MM in cap space is a lot of assets that could be used to create a deep team. DW gambled that giving up that depth for Karlsson would result in a better team. So far, it hasn’t.

I still maintain that the assets weren't that valuable. Yes, a top-5 pick has a lot of value, but nobody thought this was likely when the pick was traded. That's a bunch of decent, unremarkable, uninspiring assets.


Edit: DeMelo appears to have developed into a very solid #3-4 defenseman. That's a pretty solid piece, and something the team could use, but I don't think that was a reasonable projection at the time of the trade.

 

[Barrie22]

at 5v5	SV%	GAA	HDSV%	HDGAA	HDSA/60
Dell w/Deboer	.878	3.59	.811	1.71	9.06
Dell w/Boughner	.920	2.45	.853	1.53	10.43
Jones w/Deboer	.877	3.45	.810	1.67	8.79
Jones w/Boughner	.918	2.11	.955	.30	6.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I get that people still want to hate on our goalies, it is hard to just stop after years of hating them, but based on the numbers above, and the numbers for both these goalies before DeBoer changed his system to be like Vegas a couple years back, I have no idea how anyone can still pretend that the system was not the driving factor in our goalies being god awful.

It is literally day and night after just a couple weeks under a new coach, and its not like our team has been super awesome during that time where our goalies are just standing around doing nothing and getting good numbers because of it.

I know they are not elite, but there is also no reason to waste assets or cap to dump Jones at this point. We should let Dell go no matter what, because we should be looking to see if any of our goalie prospects turn into anything good, or find a new one through trade/draft, and hope that Jones regains his form in the meantime and becomes tradable by the time a new starter wins the job.

Wow shocking. Oh right no the change in stats is not shocking what so ever. It is what happens when you have a idiot coach that decided that playing without any resemblence of defensive hockey was the right way to go.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Not wanting to wade on on the whole of the issue, but it's worth pointing out that it wouldn't be all those assets and $11.5m in cap space. Not unless you're arguing that none of those players would be counting against the cap. Rather it would be those pieces and whatever would be left of the $11.5m after you've subtracted he hits of the on-roster players. For the here and now that would likely be around $4.6m (approximately $3m for Tierney, $900k for DeMelo, $760k for Balcers). So it's more like ~$7m in cap space.

Demelo and Balcers salary are roughly the same as the players they would replace on the roster. Only Tierney moves the needle a bit. The point remains, DW chose Karlsson over depth and so far it isn’t working out.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Demelo and Balcers salary are roughly the same as the players they would replace on the roster. Only Tierney moves the needle a bit. The point remains, DW chose Karlsson over depth and so far it isn’t working out.

If the point is that he chose Karlsson over depth based on the trade then I don't think that's an accurate reflection of the trade. Tierney's role on the team was effectively replaced by other depth pieces. DeMelo was a 3rd pairing guy on our team and would be on any competitive team. DeMelo as a 2nd pairing guy in Ottawa is a mirage and done out of necessity. Losing them when they've been effectively replaced isn't the problem. Losing Pavelski, Donskoi, and Nyquist while bringing in nothing and hoping Labanc would start to be consistent and hope someone else steps into the top six was the problem. DW should've traded Dillon in the off-season and used his cap space to bring back Donskoi or Nyquist or bring in someone else. It's easier to hope that a depth forward spot and a depth d-man spot get filled over a top forward spot AND a depth forward spot. And while Dillon is solid for the most part, he was and is replaceable and we had more pressing needs especially now that Ferraro has proven himself.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

If the point is that he chose Karlsson over depth based on the trade then I don't think that's an accurate reflection of the trade. Tierney's role on the team was effectively replaced by other depth pieces. DeMelo was a 3rd pairing guy on our team and would be on any competitive team. DeMelo as a 2nd pairing guy in Ottawa is a mirage and done out of necessity. Losing them when they've been effectively replaced isn't the problem. Losing Pavelski, Donskoi, and Nyquist while bringing in nothing and hoping Labanc would start to be consistent and hope someone else steps into the top six was the problem. DW should've traded Dillon in the off-season and used his cap space to bring back Donskoi or Nyquist or bring in someone else. It's easier to hope that a depth forward spot and a depth d-man spot get filled over a top forward spot AND a depth forward spot. And while Dillon is solid for the most part, he was and is replaceable and we had more pressing needs especially now that Ferraro has proven himself.

The Erik Karlsson signing looks bad because we lost some depth players. That in itself is a very poor reflection on our drafting and prospect pool. That is really it. Its not like we traded Hertl, Meier, Couture, etc. for Erik Karlsson.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The Erik Karlsson signing looks bad because we lost some depth players. That in itself is a very poor reflection on our drafting and prospect pool. That is really it. Its not like we traded Hertl, Meier, Couture, etc. for Erik Karlsson.

I agree to some extent. The problem is that we lost top six depth not that we lost depth. The 3rd and 4th lines have not been a problem really. At least not to the extent that it needs addressing. Marleau and Thornton have predominantly played 3rd line level minutes and have produced enough for that role. Kellman and Noesen have done their jobs as 4th liners even with just one goal in five games respectively. The kids that have stepped in to fill depth spots have performed well enough. Really, only Melker needs to go from a depth perspective due to his cap hit.

Asking kids to fill in your top two scoring lines is never a good idea. I could understand the reasoning for giving Labanc the shot there but hoping some rookie comes in to own the other one was very wishful thinking and poor planning on DW's part. Once that became apparent that no one was going to fill that, they needed to make moves to get that taken care of and DW hasn't done it. He still could do it. Dillon and Melker make enough to bring in a solid top six winger especially if they get a retention favor from another team.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh Boogie...the one guy that showed life fairly consistently in Detroit is the one you're taking out for Melker? Should've taken out Sorensen.

 

[STL Shark]

If the downward trend keeps up and we appear out of it come deadline time, I wonder if Dell’s recent hot streak has made him worth enough to trade? Wouldn’t be much, but wonder if someone would give up a 3rd or 4th rounder for him given how he’s played since Boughner took over. Would be a nice scenario for the Sharks as it mitigates any risk that he’s re-signed next year following this hot streak.

 

[hockeyCEO]

Finally with a decent defensive structure, Jones and Dell's numbers look a lot better. It's always good to have a head coach who was a defensemen.

With our personnel, we should be one of the most difficult teams to score against. Not sitting at a -29 goal differential with the 2nd most allowed goals in the league. It's not like our guys were injured. We were just horrible structurally for the first half of the year. And no, I don't pin this on Jones or Dell.

The holes in the top 9 will still be there, (27th in goals) but that can be addressed if we become competitive.

Sharks need a huge road trip. The West is really weak, so unfortunately hope still exists. Ha!

 

[jabelskey]

If there is to be some sort of desperation move by DW it’ll probably be:

Jones plus some change

for

A decent scorer/winger or (enter tendy name here)

 

[themelkman]

I think id hate the cost but damn a Ryan Strome pick up looks really good right now

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If there is to be some sort of desperation move by DW it’ll probably be:

Jones plus some change

for

A decent scorer/winger or (enter tendy name here)

I doubt it with Jones' three team trade list being a thing. Maybe in the offseason something can happen there but now when both goalies were struggling before the coaching change and both goalies have seen an improvement in their performances after, they're likely not going to be able to move him.

 

[boredatwork]

Could regression to the mean explain some of the uptick in the goalies' performances? The Sharks literally have the worst PDO at evens and the goaltending is a big reason why.

Also, I find the high danger and scoring chances debate fascinating. The eye test says that the Sharks played a pretty strong game against the Penguins, but the advanced stats suggest that the Pens dominated the Sharks.

Should a missed shot be considered a scoring chance?
Should a blocked or deflected shot be considered a scoring chance or evidence of strong defense?

 

[hohosaregood]

Could regression to the mean explain some of the uptick in the goalies' performances? The Sharks literally have the worst PDO at evens and the goaltending is a big reason why.

Also, I find the high danger and scoring chances debate fascinating. The eye test says that the Sharks played a pretty strong game against the Penguins, but the advanced stats suggest that the Pens dominated the Sharks.

Should a missed shot be considered a scoring chance?
Should a blocked or deflected shot be considered a scoring chance or evidence of strong defense?

There's not really a mean for us to regress to. We have the worst PDO but we were legitimately one of the worst teams out there and still are. If we were playing well a la owning the xGF% or CF% then sure but we're rock bottom in those categories. Like regressing to the mean would be if we were generating tons of shots but less than average were going in but if we aren't generating shots and the pucks aren't going in, we can't blame the percentages that much. Any winning we do is arguably a fluke and losing horrifically is the mean.

 

[hohosaregood]

You know what sorta sucks about the coaching change happening only now? How different would this team be if a different coach came in and advocated for a Joakim Ryan or a Joonas Donskoi. Could have potentially kept some cheaper effective depth and not alienate/jettison players who could've helped.

 

[NWSharkie]

You know what sorta sucks about the coaching change happening only now? How different would this team be if a different coach came in and advocated for a Joakim Ryan or a Joonas Donskoi. Could have potentially kept some cheaper effective depth and not alienate/jettison players who could've helped.

But which of those players would we have kept? Donskoi was a cap casualty. Ryan wouldn't have played over Simek or Ferraro. The problem isn't so much that players were alienated and left, it's that the Sharks decided to invest $25+ million in their top 4 D and that came out of the budget for forwards.

 

[DG93]

But which of those players would we have kept? Donskoi was a cap casualty. Ryan wouldn't have played over Simek or Ferraro. The problem isn't so much that players were alienated and left, it's that the Sharks decided to invest $25+ million in their top 4 D and that came out of the budget for forwards.

SJ has 1.4M in cap space, and Melker + Sorensen make 3.5M combined. Donskoi + Suomela instead of those 2 s**t 4th liners could have fit under the cap.