I’ve been agreeing with you a lot lately, but only 2/3rds here.
You’re spot on with 1 and 2. We will see how the time off gives Washington time to recover, but that rest is huge.
3 I disagree with, and would split it into two points - one that favors Vegas and one that favors Washington.
3a) Washington, and specifically Ovechkin, know they may never get back here, so their desperation level is off the charts. Haven’t quite seen a playoffs like Ovy has had so far - he is playing every game like it’s his last. Yes, Washington does seem more desperate, but they’re letting it feed their game, so I wouldn’t call it a disadvantage.
3b) That said, Vegas is mowing down everyone with no explanation as to why. They just beat the Jets in 5. They’re a machine right now and they don’t even really seem to be overwhelmed by anything. This is a group of leftover expansion players that their teams didn’t want, and demeanor-wise they’re treating this like a hot streak in January. They barely even cracked a smile getting to the Finals. It’s bizarro-world.
Cup would be handed to either Fleury or Engelland. Fleury wins the Smythe if Vegas wins - if Washington wins it will be because Ovy and Kuznetsov had a big series and go to one of them (likely Ovy). Only if Washington wins with Ovy scoring ~2-3 points will Fleury keep it.
