Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Randy Randerson]

Agreed. A few more picks to either draft or use to move up in the draft.

Gardiner is a much more valuable asset than JVR/Bozak/Komarov, so lets hope we handle this one better

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

So a few guys I've liked playing pretty well at the u18: Dellandrea, Berggren, Morozov.

Not so much: Wise, Miller.

 

[firstemperor]

So a few guys I've liked playing pretty well at the u18: Dellandrea, Berggren, Morozov.

Not so much: Wise, Miller.

Thought Miller looked good in the Belarus game, Samuelsson has been more solid overall though. I think people on the prospect board are over-reacting with Miller, but I would move him down a peg just because it's becoming more clear that his defensive game is going to be a bit of a project and I'm more weary about it than not. I think his offensive skill and acumen are there but he simply doesn't have strong defensive underpinnings and that is a bit troublesome. His skating ability up the ice and making plays in the O-zone is top notch for a D....and he still has high-end potential as a PMD which shouldn't be overlooked for a pick in the 20's.

Dellandrea- Agreed, always said I would heavily consider him around our pick in the 20's.

Berggren- He's been all over the ice at times..both offensively and defensively. His pressure on the back-check is noticeable, and he created some dangerous opportunities off neutral zone turnovers because of it.

The most impressive players in the tourney so far have been the 2019 guys though- Hughes (flat out dominant at times), Turcotte, Lafreniere, Lavoie

 

[ObscureAlien]

I see this thread has lots of action since the loss, time for me to start viewing this thread less

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Thought Miller looked good in the Belarus game, Samuelsson has been more solid overall though. I think people on the prospect board are over-reacting with Miller, but I would move him down a peg just because it's becoming more clear that his defensive game is going to be a bit of a project and I'm more weary about it than not. I think his offensive skill and acumen are there but he simply doesn't have strong defensive underpinnings and that is a bit troublesome. His skating ability up the ice and making plays in the O-zone is top notch for a D....and he still has high-end potential as a PMD which shouldn't be overlooked for a pick in the 20's.

Dellandrea- Agreed, always said I would heavily consider him around our pick in the 20's.

Berggren- He's been all over the ice at times..both offensively and defensively. His pressure on the back-check is noticeable, and he created some dangerous opportunities off neutral zone turnovers because of it.

The most impressive players in the tourney so far have been the 2019 guys though- Hughes (flat out dominant at times), Turcotte, Lafreniere, Lavoie

Lafreniere is a 2020 guy. Probably 1st overall unless he pulls an Espisito. Hughes is potentially the top pick in 2019. So good that Mississauga was willing to waste an 8th overall pick on him even though he probably was never going to commit. Turcotte is top 10-15 as well... Next couple of drafts will be really good ones.

 

[Kiwi]

So a few guys I've liked playing pretty well at the u18: Dellandrea, Berggren, Morozov.

Not so much: Wise, Miller.

Most of the team US Dmen are struggling right now

I think its coaching more than the actual players since every defenseman on the team seems to be struggling all at once

 

[cookie]

agreed, and now we've suffered the same fate that everyone was worried that we would without them but don't have the extra assets. it's a small hang up but another 3-5 picks in the first 2 rounds would have been good

You either go all-in or you sell off ancillary pieces. What you're not supposed to do is sit on the fence. That's what the Leafs did though. But I think you can rationalize it in some sense. Had we won the series, going into the second round would have been a huge boost to our young core guys--playoff hockey experience against two different kinds of teams and systems.

As for offloading players, I think GMs overvalue their players, especially their older guys. Coaches exacerbate this by playing their older guys more than their younger guys because of what they've done in the past, and due to a sense of loyalty. Both things are hogwash--just because a player played at a certain level in the past doesn't mean that they'll play at the same level in the present or in the future and secondly, very, very, few veterans stay on a team for the long haul. What this leads to is a younger crop of players that are denied playing time due to preconceived biases.

What this means/meant for the Leafs is that
- they could have unloaded ancillary pieces like Komarov and JVR, and given playing time to Leivo, Johnsson, Kapanen
- used the inflated trade deadline returns for centers, RHD, even a lottery pick, potentially

On the one hand, this team had more than a few holes, but on the other hand, this was still a historically-great Leafs team. We have the benefit of hindsight but at the end of the day we have no idea about the kind of returns our spare parts were fetching.

 

[sxvnert]

Anyone have a draft guide/preview link since its now time to focus on the draft?

 

[cookie]

Anyone have a draft guide/preview link since its now time to focus on the draft?

LWOHP -- Hockey prospects rankings, news, and analysis. Honestly.
Mynhldraft.com
TSN
Sportsnet
Elite prospects
And the prospects board here

 

[horner]

Now that we know we are going to be drafting in the early 20's, I would trade back for extra picked.
With the
Rangers 29th and 39th pk
29th Dellandrea C
39th Rodriguez G

 

[SprDaVE]

Assuming we pick in the first round (I'd be shocked if we did) here are my top 5 choices for around where we'll pick:

Akil Thomas
Grigori Denisenko
Rasmus Sandin
Dominik Bokk
Ryan Merkley

I also really like Alexander Alexeyev and Vitaliy Kravtsov.

Merkley gets hated here but being able to draft a talent like that in the bottom 10 of the first round is too good to pass up to me. Watch him at U-18s right now where he's standing out in a big way.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You either go all-in or you sell off ancillary pieces. What you're not supposed to do is sit on the fence. That's what the Leafs did though. But I think you can rationalize it in some sense. Had we won the series, going into the second round would have been a huge boost to our young core guys--playoff hockey experience against two different kinds of teams and systems.

As for offloading players, I think GMs overvalue their players, especially their older guys. Coaches exacerbate this by playing their older guys more than their younger guys because of what they've done in the past, and due to a sense of loyalty. Both things are hogwash--just because a player played at a certain level in the past doesn't mean that they'll play at the same level in the present or in the future and secondly, very, very, few veterans stay on a team for the long haul. What this leads to is a younger crop of players that are denied playing time due to preconceived biases.

What this means/meant for the Leafs is that
- they could have unloaded ancillary pieces like Komarov and JVR, and given playing time to Leivo, Johnsson, Kapanen
- used the inflated trade deadline returns for centers, RHD, even a lottery pick, potentially

On the one hand, this team had more than a few holes, but on the other hand, this was still a historically-great Leafs team. We have the benefit of hindsight but at the end of the day we have no idea about the kind of returns our spare parts were fetching.

Completely agree, this is one item that you should be on one end of the spectrum or the other. Personally I think our window to contend wasn't quite open this year so I would have tried to preserve the value of those ancillary pieces until it was. It was a lot of value lost too, probably would have amounted to a couple of big TDL rentals or one very good supplemental player on a longer term contract if we were using all the picks and prospects that we got as trade currency

 

[SprDaVE]

Leafs will draft between 23 and 25 depending on the outcomes below.

 

[Walshy7]

Leafs draft between 23 and 25 depending on the outcomes below.

alright so pick 23, gardiner for the oilers pick. chirelli is looking for a scoring Dman we have a 50 point dmen we might be able to let go of.



although it is chirelli

 

[BlueForever75]

alright so pick 23, gardiner for the oilers pick. chirelli is looking for a scoring Dman we have a 50 point dmen we might be able to let go of.



although it is chirelli

Would rather deal Pick and Gardiner to Oilers for RNH if we lose out on Tavares. We need a 2nd/3rd line center badly next season.

 

[Walshy7]

Would rather deal Pick and Gardiner to Oilers for RNH if we lose out on Tavares. We need a 2nd/3rd line center badly next season.

much more realistic than getting pick 4~. RNH isn't the worst idea, wouldn't do Gardiner and pick 23 though. Gardiner and a 2nd maybe

 

[BlueForever75]

much more realistic than getting pick 4~. RNH isn't the worst idea, wouldn't do Gardiner and pick 23 though. Gardiner and a 2nd maybe

RNH instantly would be an upgrade on Bozak. Be cheaper then Tavares filling the C position. Would give you flexibility to spend money on someone on D that would be an upgrade on Gardiner like a Carlson or De Hann.

Long term centers of Matthews, RNH and Kadri is great when you have wingers like Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Brown and Hyman.

 

[Walshy7]

RNH instantly would be an upgrade on Bozak. Be cheaper then Tavares filling the C position. Would give you flexibility to spend money on someone on D that would be an upgrade on Gardiner like a Carlson or De Hann.

Long term centers of Matthews, RNH and Kadri is great when you have wingers like Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Brown and Hyman.

yep sign me up. Might even get a Chirelli special and it becomes a 1 for 1 trade if we are lucky. I keep our 1st though

 

[BlueForever75]

yep sign me up. Might even get a Chirelli special and it becomes a 1 for 1 trade if we are lucky. I keep our 1st though

Agreed I dont think it would cost us a 1st considering we are taking larger cap hit in return with RNH. Now if Edmonton is willing to eat 20% of RNH remaining contract so we only have to pay him 4 million a season for the next 3-4 years I would consider letting our 1st Rounder go in the deal along with Gardiner.

Reasoning for this is that it would free up more funds to pursue Dmen that we can upgrade our D with. If it was a top 15 pick I would be hesitant to deal. But it being in the mid 20s and RNH not exactly being old. I would be all for the trade.

 

[nuck]

The Oilers are not likely to deal RNH. They want to get better at D but they want a right shot, plus they have no scoring depth any more because of the Hall and Eberle trades. They have been using Nuge as a wing with McDavid and my guess he will get a long look there next year. There will be a ton of interest in Gardner though. Some of this years playoff clubs are going to be looking to add some speed and thats Jake. There will be a lot of love for a 50pt D man out there if the Leafs don't decide to "own rental" him.

 

[Stand Witness]

I HATE the idea of not going BPA but my god do we need some RHD and C in the system.

Fortunately, Merkley probably will be the BPA (skill wise) and be available for us. I think we have to take the chance.

 

[DanM]

I see this thread has lots of action since the loss, time for me to start viewing this thread less

Why?

Is it not time to look towards the draft? lol

Am I missing something?

 

[Walshy7]

The Oilers are not likely to deal RNH. They want to get better at D but they want a right shot, plus they have no scoring depth any more because of the Hall and Eberle trades. They have been using Nuge as a wing with McDavid and my guess he will get a long look there next year. There will be a ton of interest in Gardner though. Some of this years playoff clubs are going to be looking to add some speed and thats Jake. There will be a lot of love for a 50pt D man out there if the Leafs don't decide to "own rental" him.

$27.5m Locked up in 3 centres is not insignificant mcdavids deal kicks in next season

 

[Walshy7]

I HATE the idea of not going BPA but my god do we need some RHD and C in the system.

Fortunately, Merkley probably will be the BPA (skill wise) and be available for us. I think we have to take the chance.

He is no sure thing and is barely a dman either, struggles in his own zone. Plays like a 6th forward we’d need trade for the best defensive dman in the league to pair with him

 

[ObscureAlien]

Why?

Is it not time to look towards the draft? lol

Am I missing something?

(TLDR version at the bottom)

I read multiple team's draft threads from September to June and generally speaking, the closer a team gets to elimination, the higher the number of posters post in the draft threads. Now this can be a good thing as a wider range of opinions leads to more discussion about the draft eligible prospects. However, as the number of posters increases, so does the number of posters who judge prospects on highlight reels and secondary scouting reports, and I prefer to read opinions of posters who actually watch full games of draft eligible prospects year round and those posters become harder to identify the closer to the draft we get/the closer to elimination their team gets. However this is not always true. For example a team like Arizona's playoff hopes were all but done at the end of October, and some posters switch to focusing on the draft way early in the season when it is clear that the year will be a lost cause, but for the majority of teams who compete for at least half the season, I stand by my hypothesis that generally speaking you will find a higher percentage of opinions on draft eligible prospects earlier in the season that are substantiated by actual full game viewings.

TLDR: the time to look towards the draft starts in September (or even August due to Hlinka), not after your favourite team gets eliminated.

Additionally, an unrelated point is after the team gets eliminated the more trade talk we get in the draft thread which does not belong here IMO.