Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[93LEAFS]

Wilde is nice but I don't think he would be there when we're up right?

It is still really early. Everything past the top 7 or so are still in heavy flux.

I'd think its unlikely any of these guys fall out of the lottery in Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes, and Boqvist. But, past that, I see a wide range of where guys are ranked. Guys like Kupari, Farabee, and Ty Smith are probably not likely to fall out, but more likely than the above too. Past that? It is a bit of a free for all. How you rank Dobson, McIsaac, Merkely, Woo, M. Samuelson, Evan Bouchard, K'Andre Miller, Wilde, Addison and Alexeyev is wide open. I don't see Wilde falling outside the top 20, just due to his skill set, his tools are too elite even if he lacks hockey-iq (I can see perception around him similar to Chychrun after Chychruns stock imploded in the 2nd half). But, given the Leafs probably have a first around 20, and 2 2nds, if Wilde is a guy we love, we may have the ammunition to move up for him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It is still really early. Everything past the top 7 or so are still in heavy flux.

I'd think its unlikely any of these guys fall out of the lottery in Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes, and Boqvist. But, past that, I see a wide range of where guys are ranked. Guys like Kupari, Farabee, and Ty Smith are probably not likely to fall out, but more likely than the above too. Past that? It is a bit of a free for all. How you rank Dobson, McIsaac, Merkely, Woo, M. Samuelson, Evan Bouchard, K'Andre Miller, Wilde, Addison and Alexeyev is wide open. I don't see Wilde falling outside the top 20, just due to his skill set, his tools are too elite even if he lacks hockey-iq (I can see perception around him similar to Chychrun after Chychruns stock imploded in the 2nd half). But, given the Leafs probably have a first around 20, and 2 2nds, if Wilde is a guy we love, we may have the ammunition to move up for him.

I would love to get what every team wants; a stud defenseman who is physical, skilled, can play 2-ways, pp, pk, 5v5 monster. Drew Doughty basically lol.

 

[93LEAFS]

I would love to get what every team wants; a stud defenseman who is physical, skilled, can play 2-ways, pp, pk, 5v5 monster. Drew Doughty basically lol.

Are you referring to a particular player here (Wilde?)?

Outside of Dahlin, I don't see anyone comparable to Doughty. Although, I didn't think that of McAvoy, and he's clearly emerging as a prospect of that level.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Are you referring to a particular player here (Wilde?)?

Outside of Dahlin, I don't see anyone comparable to Doughty. Although, I didn't think that of McAvoy, and he's clearly emerging as a prospect of that level.

Yeah, no one in particular but we need to hit that type of home run. Liljegren has the potential to be something to that effect minus any physical edge.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah, no one in particular but we need to hit that type of home run. Liljegren has the potential to be something to that effect minus any physical edge.

It'd be a big home run to hit. Most young D are erratic.

Personally, for this draft outside of the top 12 (I'd eliminate Dahlin, Boqvist, Hughes, Smith), I am partial to the guys who are a bit safer but have a strong 2-way game. I'd have Dobson (who I think has Pietrangelo upside, but his game is more subtle than guys like Merkley or Wilde), Woo and Mattias Samuelson. Dobson and Woo are both right-sided also.

The way Rielly has stepped up this year now that he has an adequate partner who can allow him to play his game makes me less worried about finding a franchise #1 defender. I think we might have one, and he is entering the age where most start to emerge and cement themselves as such.

Although, at the end of the day, I'm not too picky about who we take in the 20's. Past the top 10 the draft your chances of getting a long-term contributor as a top 6 forward, top 4 D or starting goalie is at best a coinflip in the 10-20 range, and is likely 40% in the 20's at best. Given those odds, you have to measure the probabilities and take the guy who has the best chance to become that. The only position where franchise players come almost exlusively in the top 10, and rarely outside the 1st round (Basically only Bergeron) in center. Other positions you can gamble on projectable tools in the 2nd round and sometimes have a bit hit. I mean, how many of the leagues best defenders were taken in the 2nd round? Off the top of my head, there is Josi, Keith, Weber, Subban, and Vlasic.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It'd be a big home run to hit. Most young D are erratic.

Personally, for this draft outside of the top 12 (I'd eliminate Dahlin, Boqvist, Hughes, Smith), I am partial to the guys who are a bit safer but have a strong 2-way game. I'd have Dobson (who I think has Pietrangelo upside, but his game is more subtle than guys like Merkley or Wilde), Woo and Mattias Samuelson. Dobson and Woo are both right-sided also.

The way Rielly has stepped up this year now that he has an adequate partner who can allow him to play his game makes me less worried about finding a franchise #1 defender. I think we might have one, and he is entering the age where most start to emerge and cement themselves as such.

Although, at the end of the day, I'm not too picky about who we take in the 20's. Past the top 10 the draft your chances of getting a long-term contributor as a top 6 forward, top 4 D or starting goalie is at best a coinflip in the 10-20 range, and is likely 40% in the 20's at best. Given those odds, you have to measure the probabilities and take the guy who has the best chance to become that. The only position where franchise players come almost exlusively in the top 10, and rarely outside the 1st round (Basically only Bergeron) in center. Other positions you can gamble on projectable tools in the 2nd round and sometimes have a bit hit. I mean, how many of the leagues best defenders were taken in the 2nd round? Off the top of my head, there is Josi, Keith, Weber, Subban, and Vlasic.

Insightful post, thanks.

I think hockey IQ, skill, are all huge. Subtle isn't a bad thing. We have a lot of flash on the team already. A simple game like Hainsey is needed in some cases, just good old fashioned defense, but if you can contribute 50 points at the same time it would be great

edit: read up on Dobson, he sounds pretty good. Would have to trade up for him by the sounds of it. I am comfortable in using a 2nd to do it if he's the right guy.

 

[Kiwi]

Insightful post, thanks.

I think hockey IQ, skill, are all huge. Subtle isn't a bad thing. We have a lot of flash on the team already. A simple game like Hainsey is needed in some cases, just good old fashioned defense, but if you can contribute 50 points at the same time it would be great

edit: read up on Dobson, he sounds pretty good. Would have to trade up for him by the sounds of it. I am comfortable in using a 2nd to do it if he's the right guy.

Jett Woo

He's everything I'd look for in a defender, he plays every situation and has good size and almost all of the posters who watch the WHL rave about how good and well rounded the kids game is

 

[WTFMAN99]

Jett Woo

He's everything I'd look for in a defender, he plays every situation and has good size and almost all of the posters who watch the WHL rave about how good and well rounded the kids game is

Let's get both lol.

 

[Kiwi]

Let's get both lol.

There's this dude called JVR that could bring in at least a late 1st that we could add our 2 2nd's to that 1st

So 2 of Woo/Dobson/Samuelson in one draft
What a dream that would be

 

[WTFMAN99]

There's this dude called JVR that could bring in at least a late 1st that we could add our 2 2nd's to that 1st

So 2 of Woo/Dobson/Samuelson in one draft
What a dream that would be

Yeah but it's not happening.

Bozak for a 2nd?

Trade 2 2nds for a 1st to grab Woo/Dobson, grab a centre in the 2nd. Yay prospect pool.

 

[Kiwi]

Yeah but it's not happening.

Bozak for a 2nd?

Trade 2 2nds for a 1st to grab Woo/Dobson, grab a centre in the 2nd. Yay prospect pool.

I don't think 2 2nd's is going to get you far enough up the board to get those guys

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't think 2 2nd's is going to get you far enough up the board to get those guys

Hope we can get 2 2nds for Bozak and move 3 2nds

 

[Kiwi]

Hope we can get 2 2nds for Bozak and move 3 2nds

He's probably worth a late 1st with the amount of teams needing centers right now, the Penguins would throw the kitchen sink at it I'd imagine

I'm not sure we'd trade him in conference though

 

[BlueForever75]

Don't see why we won't be able to add to our pick pool by trading Bozak and Komarov. I can see a late 1st and prospect or two 2nds easily acquired for Bozak. As for Komarov, a third an lower prospect should get it done.

We can then package what we get along with our own first to move up in the 1st round in the top 1o. Two 1sts and two 2nds should get it done.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He's probably worth a late 1st with the amount of teams needing centers right now, the Penguins would throw the kitchen sink at it I'd imagine

I'm not sure we'd trade him in conference though

1st would be fine by me lol.

 

[Kiwi]

1st would be fine by me lol.

Got to trade him first though

 

[WTFMAN99]

Got to trade him first though

I think Nylander has went PT/Game since moving to centre. You could even leave him with the same linemates and give Matthews Bozak's wingers.

JVR-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Marleau-Nylander-Hyman
Martin-Moore-?

Leivo or Kapanen can have that spot.

Bozak gets us a 1st.

Just need to deploy Nylander like you would Bozak. He'll give you the offense and probably better defense then Bozak has.

 

[BlueForever75]

I think Nylander has went PT/Game since moving to centre. You could even leave him with the same linemates and give Matthews Bozak's wingers.

JVR-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Marleau-Nylander-Hyman
Martin-Moore-?

Leivo or Kapanen can have that spot.

Bozak gets us a 1st.

Just need to deploy Nylander like you would Bozak. He'll give you the offense and probably better defense then Bozak has.

Agreed

 

[Kiwi]

I think Nylander has went PT/Game since moving to centre. You could even leave him with the same linemates and give Matthews Bozak's wingers.

JVR-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Marleau-Nylander-Hyman
Martin-Moore-?

Leivo or Kapanen can have that spot.

Bozak gets us a 1st.

Just need to deploy Nylander like you would Bozak. He'll give you the offense and probably better defense then Bozak has.

I like it, it'll never happen but I like it

 

[WTFMAN99]

I like it, it'll never happen but I like it

I think Komarov is one of the worst 5v5 scorers in the league for the minutes he's played.

 

[Kiwi]

I think Komarov is one of the worst 5v5 scorers in the league for the minutes he's played.

Babcock won't give up Komorov, he loves him

 

[WTFMAN99]

Babcock won't give up Komorov, he loves him

Yep. Komarov useage, Hyman useage, Polak playing at all is probably the most mind boggling for me. Also the fact that we basically leave the points uncovered is frustrating.

 

[93LEAFS]

Give up the pipedream of trading Bozak. Lou and Babcock aren't trading Bozak for futures when the team is gunning for a playoff spot. Only way Bozak gets moved if it is part of a deal which gets us futures we can immediately flip to improve our RHD.

 

[Kiwi]

Give up the pipedream of trading Bozak. Lou and Babcock aren't trading Bozak for futures when the team is gunning for a playoff spot. Only way Bozak gets moved if it is part of a deal which gets us futures we can immediately flip to improve our RHD.

I know it's not going to happen but I'd be willing to risk this season to pick up enough assets to take a serious run at drafting Dobson or Woo

 

[93LEAFS]

I know it's not going to happen but I'd be willing to risk this season to pick up enough assets to take a serious run at drafting Dobson or Woo

I think it'd be stupid to take momentum away from a young team. It sends the wrong message at this point. I'd trust Babcock and Lou on what it takes to build a winning culture in the NHL. Its why I was fine with the Boyle move at the time. We have most of the young horses we need to build a winning team, that isn't worth increased odds of drafting a guy who has a 40% chance roughly of being a long-term top 4 defender.

Do you want a culture where guys take discounts to stay? Trying to win, and not hurting momentum for future assets is something you need in regards to sending a message. I don't think the dressing room would receive a deal that sends Bozak for futures well.