Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[darrylsittler27]

I have no doubt Hunter will be looking for a dropper aka Liljegren. Lou may even jump up to grab him,we have the assets. Last chance to grab one core player that we will need. I smell a C or a big D with grit / defensive awareness. The draft has been good to us since Nylander 2014.
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[Morgs]

I want Joseph Veleno.

2016-17 QMJHL U-18 PPG
1. Nico Hischier 1.51
2. Antoine Morand 1.10
3. Ivan Chekovich 0.98
4. Joseph Veleno 0.89

Veleno was the only one of those four not eligible for the 2017 draft. Hischier obviously went 1st, Morand went late 2nd round, and the other guy went 7th.

2017-18 QMJHL U-18 PPG:
1. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25
2. Joseph Veleno 1.00


2017-18 QMJHL U-19 PPG:
1. Filip Zadina 1.46 (draft eligible, top-5)
2. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25 (draft eligible 2020)
3. Raphael Harvey-Pinard 1.18
4. Antoine Morand 1.15 (2nd round 2017)
5. D'Artagnan Joly 1.04
6. Jeremy McKenna 1.03 (6th 2017)
7. Joseph Veleno 1.00

U18 players he is 2nd PPG behind only the 1st OA pick in the QMJHL draft. U-19 draft eligible he's third. He also played on by far the worst team in the Q. He's moving to a team that has 20(!) More points than his... and they're in 3rd in their division.

I expect a major jump in points playing beside some actual linemates, but even then he looks to have a 3C floor with his great tools.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I want Joseph Veleno.

2016-17 QMJHL U-18 PPG
1. Nico Hischier 1.51
2. Antoine Morand 1.10
3. Ivan Chekovich 0.98
4. Joseph Veleno 0.89

Veleno was the only one of those four not eligible for the 2017 draft. Hischier obviously went 1st, Morand went late 2nd round, and the other guy went 7th.

2017-18 QMJHL U-18 PPG:
1. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25
2. Joseph Veleno 1.00


2017-18 QMJHL U-19 PPG:
1. Filip Zadina 1.46 (draft eligible, top-5)
2. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25 (draft eligible 2020)
3. Raphael Harvey-Pinard 1.18
4. Antoine Morand 1.15 (2nd round 2017)
5. D'Artagnan Joly 1.04
6. Jeremy McKenna 1.03 (6th 2017)
7. Joseph Veleno 1.00

U18 players he is 2nd PPG behind only the 1st OA pick in the QMJHL draft. U-19 draft eligible he's third. He also played on by far the worst team in the Q. He's moving to a team that has 20(!) More points than his... and they're in 3rd in their division.

I expect a major jump in points playing beside some actual linemates, but even then he looks to have a 3C floor with his great tools.

 

[darrylsittler27]

If one assumes we will be picking 19th, I could see Lou jumping into the 15 in this draft and getting a Valeno. A good C makes sense. Please, no more small , skilled wingers.

Marner , Johnson , Kapp , Bracco. Dzerkials, Timashov... we have plenty.

 

[Walshy7]

If one assumes we will be picking 19th, I could see Lou jumping into the 15 in this draft and getting a Valeno. A good C makes sense. Please, no more small , skilled wingers.

Marner , Johnson , Kapp , Bracco. Dzerkials, Timashov... we have plenty.

Kapanen is 6'1" hardly small he is one inch smaller than veleno, other guys are all 5'10" or smaller so they certainly are small skilled wingers, its very possible veleno becomes a winger too like so many jnr C's do

 

[darrylsittler27]

Kapp plays smaller so.... And I said a Valeno type ie a C who drops and projects a 2 to 3 C. Or a big top 4 D.

 

[Morgs]

Kapp plays smaller so.... And I said a Valeno type ie a C who drops and projects a 2 to 3 C. Or a big top 4 D.

You don't ever take a player for his size. That's how you end up with Tyler Biggs over Rickard Rakell, or Jake Virtanen over William Nylander.

You pick who will be the best player, and if one day you realize you have too many Jeremy Bracco's you trade one to a team starving for skill.

All that said, I really do like Joseph Veleno. I think he's going to be a very good (if not spectacular) NHL player, and will be definitely worth a pick in the 20's.

 

[darrylsittler27]

You don't ever take a player for his size. That's how you end up with Tyler Biggs over Rickard Rakell, or Jake Virtanen over William Nylander.

You pick who will be the best player, and if one day you realize you have too many Jeremy Bracco's you trade one to a team starving for skill.

All that said, I really do like Joseph Veleno. I think he's going to be a very good (if not spectacular) NHL player, and will be definitely worth a pick in the 20's.

Of course I mean all things being equal. Hunter has been favoring size lately. I favour a big C that drops such as a Valeno type. Don't assume trades can bail you out these days.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Does anyone track how many small skilled guys don't pan out? We have Hainsey now. We don't have a big top 4 dman. All things equal, we need size and soon. Martin,Komorov,Hainsey,Jvr etc will need to be replaced. When Hunter traded the Konency pick he felt all the prospects were equal and gambled.

 

[93LEAFS]

Does anyone track how many small skilled guys don't pan out? We have Hainsey now. We don't have a big top 4 dman. All things equal, we need size and soon. Martin,Komorov,Hainsey,Jvr etc will need to be replaced. When Hunter traded the Konency pick he felt all the prospects were equal and gambled.

You do realize outside of Komorov we were able to acquire all that size through UFA and trades right? You don't gamble for need. Your odds of actually landing an NHLer who impacts your team (top 6 level forward, top 4 defenders, or a starting goalie) is around 40 percent once you get outside the lottery. To discount your chances to go for need is simply reckless given those odds.

Any player we draft this year, is unlikely to be ready for another 2 to 3 years. They aren't going to be immediately ready to replace any of those guys.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Of course I don't know this draft like Hunter does or who will drop at all
If there are only 10 players he likes then he may decide to BPA it.
It would be interesting to get his thoughts on the quality of the picks/ draft etc.

 

[93LEAFS]

I want Joseph Veleno.

2016-17 QMJHL U-18 PPG
1. Nico Hischier 1.51
2. Antoine Morand 1.10
3. Ivan Chekovich 0.98
4. Joseph Veleno 0.89

Veleno was the only one of those four not eligible for the 2017 draft. Hischier obviously went 1st, Morand went late 2nd round, and the other guy went 7th.

2017-18 QMJHL U-18 PPG:
1. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25
2. Joseph Veleno 1.00


2017-18 QMJHL U-19 PPG:
1. Filip Zadina 1.46 (draft eligible, top-5)
2. Alexis Lafreniere 1.25 (draft eligible 2020)
3. Raphael Harvey-Pinard 1.18
4. Antoine Morand 1.15 (2nd round 2017)
5. D'Artagnan Joly 1.04
6. Jeremy McKenna 1.03 (6th 2017)
7. Joseph Veleno 1.00

U18 players he is 2nd PPG behind only the 1st OA pick in the QMJHL draft. U-19 draft eligible he's third. He also played on by far the worst team in the Q. He's moving to a team that has 20(!) More points than his... and they're in 3rd in their division.

I expect a major jump in points playing beside some actual linemates, but even then he looks to have a 3C floor with his great tools.

His age and league adjusted numbers are pretty sub-par. The QMJHL only had one forward taken in the first round last year, so stacking up 4th among them while being on a stacked team isn't that impressive. He should be able to carry his own line even on a weak team. He's a guy people still prop up because he was good at 14.

Here is how the top forward prospects from the CHL stack up this year once you age and league adjust there points. I'll include every forward listed in the top 31 in either Hockey Prospect or Craig Button's most recent list. I personally don't like the CHL crop forward wise outside of the two imports at the top.

Svechnikov: 1.40
Zadina: 1.31
Hayton: .99
McLeod: 1.07
Groulx: .76
Veleno: .91
Akil Thomas: 1.09
Zavgorodny: .65
McShane: 1.00
Serron Noel: .94

This actually seems pretty down by CHL standard. Here is how every forward who was taken top 15 since the 2013 draft stacks out. These are total season numbers, that factor in playoff performance (with a 1.2x multiplier) and WJC stats (with a 1.5 multiplier). These factors rarely make a significant difference because of how few games they account for. It does not account for U-18, or Hlinka. In brackets is total games played.

2017 Draft
Patrick: 1.39 (33)
Hischier: 1.42 (68)
Glass: 1.34 (80)
Rasmussen: 1.13 (50)
Tippett: 1.31 (80)
Vilardi: 1.40 (60)
Suzuki: 1.65 (82)

2016 Draft
PLD: 1.44 (74)
Tkachuk: 2.19 (96)
A. Nylander: 1.55 (70)
McLeod: 1.19 (64)
Brown: 1.36 (64)

2015 Draft
McDavid: 2.77 (74)
Strome: 1.89 (88)
Marner: 2.24 (70)
Zacha: .86 (47)
Crouse: .96 (67)
Debrusk: 1.08 (75)
Senyshyn: .72 (80)

2014 Draft
Reinhart: 1.69 (80)
Draisaitl: 1.60 (75)
Bennett: 1.73 (64)
Dal Colle: 1.64 (79)
Virtanen: 1.03 (77)
Ehlers: 1.60 (79)
Ritchie: 1.26 (72)
Perlini: 1.20 (65)

2013 Draft
MacKinnon: 1.79 (71)
Drouin: 2.02 (76)
Monahan: 1.40 (58)
Horvat: 1.10 (93)
Domi: 1.53 (90)

When you stack up Veleno's numbers in this context it is readily apparent how average his numbers are. Last year his numbers weren't much better having a .97 over 67 games. Given the history of picks, I would be extremely reluctant to use a 1st rounder on a guy who can't break 1 ppg in adjusted numbers. Even below 1.2 or so is a very mixed bag. Yes, its far from perfect, there are some guys with high-scores who aren't tearing up the league like Dylan Strome, and how guys such as Dal Colle and Nylander are tracking is not very promising. So, you do need eyes on the ground to find these flaws. But, on a numbers basis, I can't see a case for Veleno as a good 1st round pick. Now, he has promising physical tools and probably projects as a first rounder due to this (he's a likely NHLer even if its a 3rd liner). But, once you put his numbers against other CHLers, he looks more like a 2nd rounder.

I'd also add. Outside of a player like Auston Matthews or Eichel a players floor is never a 3rd liner. Players dramatically underperform there floor all the time. I mean? Yakupov went 1st overall and G. Reinhart went 4th. Their floors appear to be non-NHLers. Players dramatically outperform there perceived ceilings and floors all the time. Look at Scheifele (in a good way) and Daigle (in a bad way).

 

[realgoodleafs]

I haven't watched these players but just going by stats I wonder why Evan Bouchard isn't in Hockey Prospect's top 31.

6'2 RHD and apparently a good skater. 42 points in 34 games. Looks like a pretty great stat line.

 

[93LEAFS]

I haven't watched these players but just going by stats I wonder why Evan Bouchard isn't in Hockey Prospect's top 31.

6'2 RHD and apparently a good skater. 42 points in 34 games. Looks like a pretty great stat line.

He's not a good skater, and can lack effort. My guess is he moves into the top 31 on their next list though.

 

[Morgs]

His age and league adjusted numbers are pretty sub-par. The QMJHL only had one forward taken in the first round last year, so stacking up 4th among them while being on a stacked team isn't that impressive. He should be able to carry his own line even on a weak team. He's a guy people still prop up because he was good at 14.

Here is how the top forward prospects from the CHL stack up this year once you age and league adjust there points. I'll include every forward listed in the top 31 in either Hockey Prospect or Craig Button's most recent list. I personally don't like the CHL crop forward wise outside of the two imports at the top.

Let's look at this a different way. As we're all aware, this is one of the weakest CHL forward crops in a very long time. After Svechnikov and Zadina (who are both projected top-5 picks, both potentially top-3) there is very little special to look at in the three leagues. Now, let's pretend like Veleno didn't have exceptional status and never had people think "this guy might be the 1st OA pick in the 2018 draft" 4 years ago, to get the disappointment of his stats out of your head. Yes his production hasn't been where it needs to be to be a Top-5, Top-10, or even a Top-20 pick, but for me he's more of a projection pick (at this point) for a few reasons:

1. He was almost PPG (0.889) at 16 years old. Only 9 players have eclipsed that PPG since 2005. Basically every one of those players were either taken in the 1st/2nd round (minus Hudon). I'm well aware he was on a championship team, but this also caused him to not have consistent Top-6 minutes all season. Show me the last time a 16 year old was on a championship LEVEL team (doesn't actually have to win, that's too unprecedented) that had a better PPG than Veleno (Even Hall who lead Windsor to two mem cups as a 17 and 18 year old, didn't get out the first round in his 16 year old season)
2. His 17 year old season he's been PPG on what is easily the worst team in the QMJHL. Although it would be nice to see a gap between him and his teammates to show he's the one that's causing the offense, I also don't blame a 17 year old for not standing out with a team that sorely lacks talent. Players are missed at the top of the draft all the time when they play for the worst team in their league. He's still clearly their best player.

3. We haven't seen what he can do in the Top-6 or (hopefully) top-line of a team who's 3rd in their divison (and 20 points more than his Sea Dogs). Looking at Drummondville quickly, I see their top scorer has 3 more points on the season than Veleno (and is 19 , undrafted), so it's not like if he begins to produce at a respectable 1.2 (or hopefully better) pace it's because he's being carried by a teammate. (Sidenote: Nicolas Beaudin has pretty awesome numbers for a 17 year old defenseman).

4. When watching this guy play, he clearly has the tools of an NHL player. His skating is top-end, he has good hands and awareness in all three zones. He's a player that not only doesn't have a glaring weakness, but also isn't one of those guys who's: not bad at anything, not great at anything. For me, I just see a guy who's struggled to produce so far in his career respective to expectation.

If he's still at this level of production by the end of the season, then maybe there is a problem. Right now though? I see a guy who actually has an excuse for the lack of production.

 

[93LEAFS]

Let's look at this a different way. As we're all aware, this is one of the weakest CHL forward crops in a very long time. After Svechnikov and Zadina (who are both projected top-5 picks, both potentially top-3) there is very little special to look at in the three leagues. Now, let's pretend like Veleno didn't have exceptional status and never had people think "this guy might be the 1st OA pick in the 2018 draft" 4 years ago, to get the disappointment of his stats out of your head. Yes his production hasn't been where it needs to be to be a Top-5, Top-10, or even a Top-20 pick, but for me he's more of a projection pick (at this point) for a few reasons:

1. He was almost PPG (0.889) at 16 years old. Only 9 players have eclipsed that PPG since 2005. Basically every one of those players were either taken in the 1st/2nd round (minus Hudon). I'm well aware he was on a championship team, but this also caused him to not have consistent Top-6 minutes all season. Show me the last time a 16 year old was on a championship LEVEL team (doesn't actually have to win, that's too unprecedented) that had a better PPG than Veleno (Even Hall who lead Windsor to two mem cups as a 17 and 18 year old, didn't get out the first round in his 16 year old season)
2. His 17 year old season he's been PPG on what is easily the worst team in the QMJHL. Although it would be nice to see a gap between him and his teammates to show he's the one that's causing the offense, I also don't blame a 17 year old for not standing out with a team that sorely lacks talent. Players are missed at the top of the draft all the time when they play for the worst team in their league. He's still clearly their best player.

3. We haven't seen what he can do in the Top-6 or (hopefully) top-line of a team who's 3rd in their divison (and 20 points more than his Sea Dogs). Looking at Drummondville quickly, I see their top scorer has 3 more points on the season than Veleno (and is 19 , undrafted), so it's not like if he begins to produce at a respectable 1.2 (or hopefully better) pace it's because he's being carried by a teammate. (Sidenote: Nicolas Beaudin has pretty awesome numbers for a 17 year old defenseman).

4. When watching this guy play, he clearly has the tools of an NHL player. His skating is top-end, he has good hands and awareness in all three zones. He's a player that not only doesn't have a glaring weakness, but also isn't one of those guys who's: not bad at anything, not great at anything. For me, I just see a guy who's struggled to produce so far in his career respective to expectation.

If he's still at this level of production by the end of the season, then maybe there is a problem. Right now though? I see a guy who actually has an excuse for the lack of production.

I personally don't think he gets the excuse both ways. Last year the claim was, he had too much talent around him, and now it is he has too little. High-end players create opportunities even on stacked teams or put up big numbers on bad teams. It's not like his linemates were terrible. Ostap Safin is a good player at the QMJHL level.

He's on a bad team, but players on bad teams tend to get more ice-time and play on a stacked top line. For example, look at Hischier last year.

I actually question his offensive awareness in my viewings. I don't think he sees the play develop, and is good at playing the final pass. Outside of his speed and size combo, I don't see anything too impressive about him. I'd be fine with taking him in the 20's, but he's not a guy I'd be that excited about. He personally reminds me a lot of Mikey McLeod who I am not a fan of. While it is a very weak CHL forward crop, I don't think the draft is terrible, because it is somewhat offset by the defensive talent in the draft. There are a bunch of good and projectible defenders.

His numbers when adjusted for age and league quality just aren't very good. Pretty much all top talents in the QMJHL destroy the league these days. Guys like Lafreniere and Pelletier are currently having better 16-year-old seasons than Veleno did last year, while guys like Morand and Comtois have done better recently. The mid-level talent out of the QMJHL forwards wise in recent years has not been very promising, and the top talents tend to dominate the league.

 

[realgoodleafs]

He's not a good skater, and can lack effort. My guess is he moves into the top 31 on their next list though.

It must be the skating because those stats are pretty amazing even if he's bad defensively.

 

[darrylsittler27]

So, rumour is it is a strong as opposed to weak draft. Would you concur? I look and see about 15 players of interest most D men. So define strong I guess. Anyone got a read on 2018? We most likely will be 19 to 21 st.

 

[Apotheosis]

If Veleno is there at our pick, I wouldn't mind. But I'm aiming for one of the D like possibly Merkley (although huge question marks now), Woo, Bouchard, Wilde etc.

 

[horner]

I think we will end up drafting 20 the in the first Rd.

Jeff Woo
Great skater
Can quarter back a power play
Great Defender
Good size
Tough

Evan Bouchard

Jack McBain
Has to improve his stride
If he can could be a steel

4th Rd ok
Alec Regula D London knights
6' 04" 190
I really like this kids

 

[93LEAFS]

So, rumour is it is a strong as opposed to weak draft. Would you concur? I look and see about 15 players of interest most D men. So define strong I guess. Anyone got a read on 2018? We most likely will be 19 to 21 st.

Its better than 2017. But, I'd say its average. Solid top 2, but not great. Probably similar to 2016, not as good as 2013 and 2015.

 

[WTFMAN99]

If Veleno is there at our pick, I wouldn't mind. But I'm aiming for one of the D like possibly Merkley (although huge question marks now), Woo, Bouchard, Wilde etc.

Wilde is nice but I don't think he would be there when we're up right?

 

[darrylsittler27]

So, really just an average draft but odds look high that Toronto will drop In the standings. If the current trend continues we should be out by Feb. Seems the vet leadership is still the same old lame old.

 

[BlueForever75]

Ya by Feb we should be in the lottery.

 

[93LEAFS]

So, really just an average draft but odds look high that Toronto will drop In the standings. If the current trend continues we should be out by Feb. Seems the vet leadership is still the same old lame old.

We get Matthews back soon, and our division is terrible. Most likely we fall past Boston, but we still have a fairly easy road to the playoffs. We also have a bunch of in division games, so that can rapidly change, but we are still pretty clear for that 3rd Atlantic spot. We looked good on Tuesday, and we couldn't beat a goalie playing well yesterday. We are still likely to be drafting in the 20's than not.