Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[93LEAFS]

just hoping we decide to draft that Gavel kid out of the Q in the second round. If we don't trade the later pick off

Plus its been a while since we had a right hand Catching goalie. I honestly think the last one was Fuhr if I'm not mistaken

6'3 and 220.

I don't think we need to bite on a goalie until the 4th again this year. Maybe a guy like Skarek in the 2nd, but past that, I'd say wait it out. We will already have Woll and Ian Scott entering the system at a similar time (I'd expect Woll to stay his Junior year, and I doubt Scott goes back as an overager). So, it might be best to take a goalie we can leave in Europe such as Skarek if we are going to use a high-pick. Another guy who might actually be available in the 4th is Justus Annunen.

I see there's some discussion on Hallander and Lilja, was coming into the thread to ask if anyone had seen/ heard much on these two. Just skulking around EP shows

U18 Allvenskan
Nylander .77
Pastrnak .67
Hallander.67
Wallmark .63
Lilja .47
Forsberg .4
Petterson .36

As yet underrated potential steals? Outproducing their skillset/projection on a hot streak? The draft is just that stacked? Because taking production at face value these are guys that could be justifiably taken in the 5-15 range, and we're talking about 2nd-3rd-4th rounders right now.

I don't think this draft is that stacked, its just too early to read into PPG. If the numbers are like that in Februrary they will be bumped up. Also keep in mind, Nylander had a track record of destroying international events with strong performances at the U-17 Challenge, Hlinka and U-18's (although to be fair Lilja and Hallander haven't played this yet), which neither of these guys have at the moment.

 

[4thline]

@93LEAFS . Good points, though Nylander to me was a top 2 talent that fell because of combo of bad situation in his draft year/ unfounded concerns. If he spent the full year in Sodertalje he'd be a Sabre today. To me it's moreso the Petterson comp that's interesting, I see potential for a counter late birthday situation where they raise to the point of late 1st's/ 2nds this year and then explode as 19's

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Found some good video of Dobson. He looks pretty solid but probably will be out of our range by June.



This channel also has Bouchard, Macdonald, and Kurashev.

 

[93LEAFS]

Found some good video of Dobson. He looks pretty solid but probably will be out of our range by June.



This channel also has Bouchard, Macdonald, and Kurashev.

If you want some good views of prospects, a guy on the mainboard has been doing these.





Maybe he will put up some others throughout the year.

 

[Apotheosis]

Thoughts on Sean Durzi? 30 in 18 right now.

 

[93LEAFS]

Thoughts on Sean Durzi? 30 in 18 right now.

Maybe a 3rd or 4th round gamble. He's a 19 year old, so when you adjust for age it isn't that impressive.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm not in love with anyone projected in our current range right now.

What are people's thoughts on Calen Addison? Seems quite petite.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I'm not in love with anyone projected in our current range right now.

What are people's thoughts on Calen Addison? Seems quite petite.

I agree. I've run a few mocks already and by the time it gets to our pick the only guy who I really like is the injured guy Khovanov. I really want to trade up for Woo though if possible.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Always BPA first but any chance Hunter goes for a LW (or a C he sees as a future LW) with the first pick?

XXX-Mathews-Marner
XXX-Nylander-Kapanen
XXX-Kadri-Brown

Could grab someone like Farabee in the mid teens or McBain/MacDonald in the low 20s to complete the young core.

 

[93LEAFS]

Always BPA first but any chance Hunter goes for a LW (or a C he sees as a future LW) with the first pick?

XXX-Mathews-Marner
XXX-Nylander-Kapanen
XXX-Kadri-Brown

Could grab someone like Farabee in the mid teens or McBain/MacDonald in the low 20s to complete the young core.

I think Farabee will cement himself in the top 10 by the end of the year if not, he'll absolutely be in the lotto territory. He's ridiculously talented, he's not Marner or Keller, but he gives me Parise vibes. Strong character, works hard, great awareness and vision, good skater and willing to play in the tough areas.
I wouldn't touch MacDonald at this point before one of our 2nds. McBain is an interesting gamble. I'm waiting to see how he shows at the world Jr. A challenge, but so far in the OJHL I'm getting mixed reviews after a solid Hlinka. He should be tearing up that league.

So far, the guys I like who we either, might be in our range, or we can have the ammunition to move up slightly due to possessing 2 2nds (but lack a 3rd) would be Farabee (who is currently ranked mostly in the teens but probably ends up top 10), Mattias Samuelsson, Jett Woo, Calen Addison, and Noah Dobson. I haven't seen enough of these guys to say I want them, but I am intrigued by Kotkaneimi, Kupari, Olofsson and Dominik Bokk. The home-run or strike out picks of Merkley and Wilde scare me (but I'd easily take Wilde if it came down to it). McIsaac is intriguing, but I'm worried he might be hockey dumb despite great physical tools. His gap control and reads on when to go for the hit at his own blue line scare me.

Now, I also really like a bunch of other guys, but barring a collapse that will render me temporarily insane I can't see them falling to us. This includes Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Boqvist and Hughes. I could see Boqvist falling if he's stuck in J-20 all year and doesn't dominate the U-18's like he did Hlinka, I can't see them being in non-lotto territory.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm not in love with anyone projected in our current range right now.

What are people's thoughts on Calen Addison? Seems quite petite.

Could be Western Canada's, Samuel Girard. I haven't watched any of his WHL season yet, but I saw all of his Hlinka and I thought he was Canada's best defenceman, and arguably best player.

I agree. I've run a few mocks already and by the time it gets to our pick the only guy who I really like is the injured guy Khovanov. I really want to trade up for Woo though if possible.

Khovanov scares me. He's coming off a really rough disease and is likely to lose a whole year of development. While a very smart player, he lacks physical tools such as skating or a size/strength combo to create separation at the next level, which ultimately hurts his ceiling. While guys like that can be good players, without the ability it is very tough for high-IQ playmakers to be high-end NHLers, just look at guys like Sam Reinhart. Most good small guys such as Marner, Gaudreau or Kane have great speed and/or edge work combined with elite hands that allow them to create time on the puck which opens passing lanes and time to utilize their high-IQ. At the moment, he's another guy who is worth taking a flyer on with a 2nd, but I'd be very nervous about using a first on him. Unlike Liljegren who we benefitted from having mono last year, Khovanov really doesn't have a large track record playing above his age group in challenging situations. Liljegren has a bunch of J-20 games and experience playing above his age group at the U-18 as a 16-year-old where he looked elite. It has been reported though, that if Khovanov gets healthy, he will play in Moncton.

 

[Kiwi]

I think Farabee will cement himself in the top 10 by the end of the year if not, he'll absolutely be in the lotto territory. He's ridiculously talented, he's not Marner or Keller, but he gives me Parise vibes. Strong character, works hard, great awareness and vision, good skater and willing to play in the tough areas.
I wouldn't touch MacDonald at this point before one of our 2nds. McBain is an interesting gamble. I'm waiting to see how he shows at the world Jr. A challenge, but so far in the OJHL I'm getting mixed reviews after a solid Hlinka. He should be tearing up that league.

So far, the guys I like who we either, might be in our range, or we can have the ammunition to move up slightly due to possessing 2 2nds (but lack a 3rd) would be Farabee (who is currently ranked mostly in the teens but probably ends up top 10), Mattias Samuelsson, Jett Woo, Calen Addison, and Noah Dobson. I haven't seen enough of these guys to say I want them, but I am intrigued by Kotkaneimi, Kupari, Olofsson and Dominik Bokk. The home-run or strike out picks of Merkley and Wilde scare me (but I'd easily take Wilde if it came down to it). McIsaac is intriguing, but I'm worried he might be hockey dumb despite great physical tools. His gap control and reads on when to go for the hit at his own blue line scare me.

Now, I also really like a bunch of other guys, but barring a collapse that will render me temporarily insane I can't see them falling to us. This includes Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Boqvist and Hughes. I could see Boqvist falling if he's stuck in J-20 all year and doesn't dominate the U-18's like he did Hlinka, I can't see them being in non-lotto territory.

Don't we still have the SJ third from the Polak trade?

 

[93LEAFS]

Don't we still have the SJ third from the Polak trade?

Damn, forgot about that. Thanks for reminding me.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I wouldn't touch MacDonald at this point before one of our 2nds. McBain is an interesting gamble. I'm waiting to see how he shows at the world Jr. A challenge, but so far in the OJHL I'm getting mixed reviews after a solid Hlinka. He should be tearing up that league.

So far, the guys I like who we either, might be in our range, or we can have the ammunition to move up slightly due to possessing 2 2nds (but lack a 3rd) would be Farabee (who is currently ranked mostly in the teens but probably ends up top 10), Mattias Samuelsson, Jett Woo, Calen Addison, and Noah Dobson. I haven't seen enough of these guys to say I want them, but I am intrigued by Kotkaneimi, Kupari, Olofsson and Dominik Bokk. The home-run or strike out picks of Merkley and Wilde scare me (but I'd easily take Wilde if it came down to it). McIsaac is intriguing, but I'm worried he might be hockey dumb despite great physical tools. His gap control and reads on when to go for the hit at his own blue line scare me.

Granted, the standings and player rankings are likely to change by June but at present I have all these guys listed in my tentative mock as going before our pick at 27/28 (assuming rightly or wrongly that we don't win the division but go to conference finals).

The guys I currently had still on the board to choose from:

HockeyProspect.com 2018 NHL Draft Rankings Top 62, November Edition - HockeyProspect.com | 2018 NHL Draft

Merkley
McIsaac
Alexeeyev
Ylonen
O'Brien
Zavgorodniy
McShane
Dellandrea
Wise
Bouchard
Sandin
MacDonald
Eggenberger

It's very likely one of the guys I have ranked higher in my mock will make it to us (no one expected Liljegren, Tolvanen, and even Kostin to fall as far as they did) but in this scenario they don't. I think right now the most likely to make it to us out of your listed group is Addisson, Bokk, Ollofsson,
or Samuelsson and I'd probably take them in that order.

Khovanov scares me. He's coming off a really rough disease and is likely to lose a whole year of development.

Can't argue with a lot of this and I think he likely makes it to at least San Jose's pick, just saying that in a vacuum I liked him more than some of the other names I had left on the board. I think we have to see what happens with his health. The normal prognosis for Hep A is 2 months, though obviously like mono there will be lingering affects up to 6 months.

The lost development is definitely a concern but at the end of the first round or early second every player is going to have flaws, and health is arguably the easiest flaw to get over. That's why GMs will still gamble on guys like Liljegren and Kostin, despite missing some time (though granted they have longer records) rather than taking a healthy guy with less upside.

While a very smart player, he lacks physical tools such as skating or a size/strength combo to create separation at the next level, which ultimately hurts his ceiling. While guys like that can be good players, without the ability it is very tough for high-IQ playmakers to be high-end NHLers, just look at guys like Sam Reinhart. Most good small guys such as Marner, Gaudreau or Kane have great speed and/or edge work combined with elite hands that allow them to create time on the puck which opens passing lanes and time to utilize their high-IQ. At the moment, he's another guy who is worth taking a flyer on with a 2nd, but I'd be very nervous about using a first on him.

I also agree that he's not a tooled-out player and relies a lot on his IQ and puck skills, but he's not a poor skater by any stretch and in fact he's pretty good from what I've seen. I mean he's a better skater and has better puck skills than a guy like Nick Suzuki who went 15th last year (after destroying the OHL obviously) and who also relies mostly on his IQ but only has average tools.

Reinhart has had a hard time adjusting but that could be due to a number of factors (Buffalo sucking, the Reinhart family in general just being overrated, etc). He was also more of a very good all-around player than a super high skilled guy in the vein of a Marner or even Jeff Skinner (two small guys with elite edges, but who aren't elite in terms of top speed or acceleration).

The guy Khovanov kind of reminds me of actually is Kadri. Kadri wasn't very big, and he wasn't a great skater either in terms of edgework or speed (Khovanov I think is actually a better skater than Kadri was at the same stage though they have a similar upright strides) but he had elite puck skills. They're both around 5'11-6'0 and 170-175 lbs during their draft years. Now Khovanov isn't as gritty as Kadri obviously, but I do think he has better IQ and a similar swagger.

I think if he's there with our San Jose pick I take a flier on him, or if he comes back early and plays well maybe he jumps back into the conversation in the first round. He was expected to be a riser prior to getting sick and probably would have gone in the mid teens.

My ideal scenario though is Jett Woo falling or us trading up for him. I also really like Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Thomas, and Wilde but doubt either makes it to us barring an injury of some kind, maybe if they can contract Hep A?

 

[93LEAFS]

Granted, the standings and player rankings are likely to change by June but at present I have all these guys listed in my tentative mock as going before our pick at 27/28 (assuming rightly or wrongly that we don't win the division but go to conference finals).

The guys I currently had still on the board to choose from:

HockeyProspect.com 2018 NHL Draft Rankings Top 62, November Edition - HockeyProspect.com | 2018 NHL Draft

Merkley
McIsaac
Alexeeyev
Ylonen
O'Brien
Zavgorodniy
McShane
Dellandrea
Wise
Bouchard
Sandin
MacDonald
Eggenberger

It's very likely one of the guys I have ranked higher in my mock will make it to us (no one expected Liljegren, Tolvanen, and even Kostin to fall as far as they did) but in this scenario they don't. I think right now the most likely to make it to us out of your listed group is Addisson, Bokk, Ollofsson,
or Samuelsson and I'd probably take them in that order.



Can't argue with a lot of this and I think he likely makes it to at least San Jose's pick, just saying that in a vacuum I liked him more than some of the other names I had left on the board. I think we have to see what happens with his health. The normal prognosis for Hep A is 2 months, though obviously like mono there will be lingering affects up to 6 months.

The lost development is definitely a concern but at the end of the first round or early second every player is going to have flaws, and health is arguably the easiest flaw to get over. That's why GMs will still gamble on guys like Liljegren and Kostin, despite missing some time (though granted they have longer records) rather than taking a healthy guy with less upside.



I also agree that he's not a tooled-out player and relies a lot on his IQ and puck skills, but he's not a poor skater by any stretch and in fact he's pretty good from what I've seen. I mean he's a better skater and has better puck skills than a guy like Nick Suzuki who went 15th last year (after destroying the OHL obviously) and who also relies mostly on his IQ but only has average tools.

Reinhart has had a hard time adjusting but that could be due to a number of factors (Buffalo sucking, the Reinhart family in general just being overrated, etc). He was also more of a very good all-around player than a super high skilled guy in the vein of a Marner or even Jeff Skinner (two small guys with elite edges, but who aren't elite in terms of top speed or acceleration).

The guy Khovanov kind of reminds me of actually is Kadri. Kadri wasn't very big, and he wasn't a great skater either in terms of edgework or speed (Khovanov I think is actually a better skater than Kadri was at the same stage though they have a similar upright strides) but he had elite puck skills. They're both around 5'11-6'0 and 170-175 lbs during their draft years. Now Khovanov isn't as gritty as Kadri obviously, but I do think he has better IQ and a similar swagger.

I think if he's there with our San Jose pick I take a flier on him, or if he comes back early and plays well maybe he jumps back into the conversation in the first round. He was expected to be a riser prior to getting sick and probably would have gone in the mid teens.

My ideal scenario though is Jett Woo falling or us trading up for him. I also really like Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Thomas, and Wilde but doubt either makes it to us barring an injury of some kind, maybe if they can contract Hep A?

I've heard talk Khovanov is closer to 5'9 than 6 feet, so, I'll wait until the combine on that one. People, I'd trust on the matter had Khovanov as a fringe first rounder entering the year. Kadri always had amazing hands at the junior level, I'm not sure Khovanov has them at that level. He's an interesting gamble. If we take him, I'll trust our guys from Russia (Ladygin and Namestinkov). I liked Suzuki in the mid-first despite having similar concerns, but it was because he was quite proven. Khovanov really only has a strong U-17 to his name.

Of your mock, I'd love Mattias Samuelsson. I think he's a solid all-around guy. Merkley scares me to death, and I can't see a guy as well connected throughout Ontario hockey as Hunter liking the kid or Lou signing off.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I've heard talk Khovanov is closer to 5'9 than 6 feet, so, I'll wait until the combine on that one. People, I'd trust on the matter had Khovanov as a fringe first rounder entering the year. Kadri always had amazing hands at the junior level, I'm not sure Khovanov has them at that level. He's an interesting gamble. If we take him, I'll trust our guys from Russia (Ladygin and Namestinkov). I liked Suzuki in the mid-first despite having similar concerns, but it was because he was quite proven. Khovanov really only has a strong U-17 to his name.

Of your mock, I'd love Mattias Samuelsson. I think he's a solid all-around guy. Merkley scares me to death, and I can't see a guy as well connected throughout Ontario hockey as Hunter liking the kid or Lou signing off.

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of Merkley and he probably goes higher than we think so hopefully someone better drops as a result. I actually have Samuelsson to Winnipeg at 25 so he's not there in this scenario. I do like him though. I read somewhere he could be a riser into the late teens.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of Merkley and he probably goes higher than we think so hopefully someone better drops as a result. I actually have Samuelsson to Winnipeg at 25 so he's not there in this scenario. I do like him though. I read somewhere he could be a riser into the late teens.

I've seen him high. I trust the HP guys. Outside of them, I put faith mostly in Bob and Craig. Looking forward to Craig's next list. I assume we get one before the WJC. Obviously, he has some blatent biases (or I should say preferences), but they are easy to pick up on, and in a lot of cases I agree with him (he really dislikes guys in the Virtanen, Julien Gauthier, and Max Jones mold compared to the industry).

 

[93LEAFS]

Craig’s List: Dahlin dominating, one Canadian in Top 10 - Article - TSN

1: Dahlin
2: Boqvist
3: Svechnikov
4: Tkachuk
5: Zadina
6: Wilde
7: Quinn Hughes
8: Kupari
9: Hayton
10: Farabee

My first take is he is overrating Hlinka still. Out of the top 10, I'd say Boqvist, Wilde and Hayton are too high.

 

[firstemperor]

Craig’s List: Dahlin dominating, one Canadian in Top 10 - Article - TSN

1: Dahlin
2: Boqvist
3: Svechnikov
4: Tkachuk
5: Zadina
6: Wilde
7: Quinn Hughes
8: Kupari
9: Hayton
10: Farabee

My first take is he is overrating Hlinka still. Out of the top 10, I'd say Boqvist, Wilde and Hayton are too high.

Interesting list, I like Bouchard, Woo, and Wahlstrom a little more than most...Veleno continues to drop (can't say I've caught him in the Q this year with all the NHL hockey I've watched lately).

 

[Kiwi]

Craig’s List: Dahlin dominating, one Canadian in Top 10 - Article - TSN

1: Dahlin
2: Boqvist
3: Svechnikov
4: Tkachuk
5: Zadina
6: Wilde
7: Quinn Hughes
8: Kupari
9: Hayton
10: Farabee

My first take is he is overrating Hlinka still. Out of the top 10, I'd say Boqvist, Wilde and Hayton are too high.

Bouchard over Woo is interesting as well, Veleno is starting to drop on some lists, Merkley at 13 seems a little high and the kid Samuelsson at 28 seems a little low

 

[theIceWookie]

Maybe a 3rd or 4th round gamble. He's a 19 year old, so when you adjust for age it isn't that impressive.

What? He only just turned 19. He would have been a first time eligible player for the 2017 draft, so it's not like he's doing this as a CHL overager. His draft year was the same one as Rasanen's, Liljegren and Gordeev's. If Rasanen or Gordeev were putting up those kind of numbers, we'd be foaming at the mouth for them and hyping them like crazy (not the best example I know, just...just bear with me. Obviously the fact they are much larger would add to that hype but that's not what I'm getting at).

30 points in 18 games would be impressive if he was an overager defenseman. That kind of play earns you an NHL contract from teams as an overager. As a 19 year old who will still be eligible for the 2018 draft? He gonna get drafted if he keeps this up.

He's got one less point than his teammate Nick Suzuki. And one more goal. He leads his team in plus/minus by FIVE. He only has 9 of his 30 points on the powerplay (not excessively high which is nice), and he's not big but he's also not small. Unless his skating is atrocious, and he keeps this up, I could see a team taking a flyer on him in the second round pretty easily. He's the second highest scoring defenseman in CHL hockey behind only Kale Clague, who happens to be 4 months older than him. Plus he's a righty.

Durzi is a worthy gamble as high as a low second in my mind.

 

[93LEAFS]

What? He only just turned 19. He would have been a first time eligible player for the 2017 draft, so it's not like he's doing this as a CHL overager. His draft year was the same one as Rasanen's, Liljegren and Gordeev's. If Rasanen or Gordeev were putting up those kind of numbers, we'd be foaming at the mouth for them and hyping them like crazy (not the best example I know, just...just bear with me. Obviously the fact they are much larger would add to that hype but that's not what I'm getting at).

30 points in 18 games would be impressive if he was an overager defenseman. That kind of play earns you an NHL contract from teams as an overager. As a 19 year old who will still be eligible for the 2018 draft? He gonna get drafted if he keeps this up.

He's got one less point than his teammate Nick Suzuki. And one more goal. He leads his team in plus/minus by FIVE. He only has 9 of his 30 points on the powerplay (not excessively high which is nice), and he's not big but he's also not small. Unless his skating is atrocious, and he keeps this up, I could see a team taking a flyer on him in the second round pretty easily. He's the second highest scoring defenseman in CHL hockey behind only Kale Clague, who happens to be 4 months older than him. Plus he's a righty.

Durzi is a worthy gamble as high as a low second in my mind.

I said he’d get drafted, when I get the chance I’ll age and league adjust his numbers. But he’s a late birthday in his last season before being an overager. Past the top 15 to 20 of the draft their is a large gap in expected return between an early and late birthday when it comes to CHL players.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Kids unreal lol ...

 

[Damisoph]

This kid Dahlin has some moves....but half of the clips I see of him he doesn't score, it's getting kinda funny.

Colour me skeptical that he can come in and light the league on fire at 18 years old.

 

[93LEAFS]

This kid Dahlin has some moves....but half of the clips I see of him he doesn't score, it's getting kinda funny.

Colour me skeptical that he can come in and light the league on fire at 18 years old.

It'd be almost unheard of, no 18 year old defender destroys the league.

I think Dahlin is good, and arguably the best defensive prospect in ages. I wouldn't throw the term generational around then. I think he'd go behind McDavid, Eichel and Matthews in regards to recent drafts. Young defenders are just too erratic.