Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[SprDaVE]

I'd take a chance on Merkley and I have said it for a long time. Elite tools with a ton of upside. I've seen terrible character players in Junior become great NHLers.

With that said, I understand why some wouldn't and even I'm not completely convinced.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'd take a chance on Merkley and I have said it for a long time. Elite tools with a ton of upside. I've seen terrible character players in Junior become great NHLers.

With that said, I understand why some wouldn't and even I'm not completely convinced.

Yeah, I'm usually all over these guys, but there's something about Merkley and the things that I've read about him that makes me hesitant in this case.

 

[SprDaVE]

Here's the snippet of Mirtles section on McLeod and their drafting strategy change:

Toronto has been watching McLeod closely all year. In fact, they talked to him more than any other NHL team — and not just because they’re in the same neighbourhood. They were really interested.

Emphasis on were. Because I don’t think Kyle Dubas will select him next month in Dallas.
...
Whatever the Leafs’ list looked like a couple weeks ago, make no mistake, it is now dramatically different.

McLeod is probably a good example. The first thing many prospect gurus will tell you is that he is a fine player, one with a lot of tools that should get him into an NHL lineup one day.

But the second thing they’ll say is he’s not really a Dubas pick. McLeod, you see, is a safe, low-ceiling type, someone who probably tops out as a second-line centre, if all things go well. He’s also one of the oldest first-year eligibles in the draft — with a late September birth date — and this was his first season with big point totals in junior.

He would be a fairly conventional pick at 25 — the way Freddy Gauthier was for the Leafs five years ago.

I don’t think the Leafs are going to be very conventional in many respects anymore. And certainly not on draft day.

 

[Cor]

So no more Middleton, Mattinen picks.

Nice.

 

[kyle n00bas]

I know Mirtle's only speculating.... but reading that article kinda made me lowkey glad Hunter decided to find a job somewhere else.

It's still early and success in rounds 2-7 borders on random but in terms of draft philosophy our past couple have been underwhelming outside of the top 10 picks.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Ya know, it's not a bad thing to get a 2nd line centre in the back of the 1st round. If you have a draft where you're swinging for the fence in the early rounds, late in rounds, and you miss, you hurt your organization significantly. You have to try to get a couple players each draft, not just bodies.

 

[Cor]

Decided to do a trade down simulation. Hated myself because Veleno was on the board at 25 but I had to trade down.

 

[SprDaVE]

Ya know, it's not a bad thing to get a 2nd line centre in the back of the 1st round. If you have a draft where you're swinging for the fence in the early rounds, late in rounds, and you miss, you hurt your organization significantly. You have to try to get a couple players each draft, not just bodies.

You missed the point. He's saying that McLeod is at best a 2nd line center but chances are, he ends up being a bottom line player, or worst, because he doesn't appear to have the upside to be more than that. They aren't saying he's not a good prospect that doesn't deserve to be picked in that area. Some of the reasons given is his age being one of the oldest of the draft and his production not matching some other prospects that should be available. I have seen him a few times and he definitely isn't a great prospect in my eyes.

Mirtle is just reporting that they are likely not going to aim for "safe" prospects like McLeod. Plenty of teams have that philosophy.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Ya know, it's not a bad thing to get a 2nd line centre in the back of the 1st round. If you have a draft where you're swinging for the fence in the early rounds, late in rounds, and you miss, you hurt your organization significantly. You have to try to get a couple players each draft, not just bodies.

This is where I am not only torn, but also appreciate the difficulty of a scout's job.

The fine line between safe and home run and how many of each you go for each draft. A name that comes to mind is Kiril Kabanov. A lot of posters here were quite sour when he slipped in the draft and we didn't swing for the fences and take him. How did he turn out?

I don't want a Gauthier, but at the same time, a minor cup of coffee is better than no cup of coffee at all.

I think this is how it should be considered, especially late first round.

High end: 2nd liner, low end: 3rd liner: Take him no questions asked

But if that option is not there and its between

High end: 2nd liner, low end: won't make it
vs
High end: 3rd liner, low end: 4th liner

Enh. I kind of want that second option, even if it comes with a risk of passing on the higher upside guy. In the end I want the guy to play and past pick 20, its not really a guarantee for anyone, so give me a floor to work with, you know?

Either way its not easy.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Decided to do a trade down simulation. Hated myself because Veleno was on the board at 25 but I had to trade down.

I think that Veleno is very unlikely to be there right?

Either way, to come away with the draft you just did i'd be super happy.

 

[Cor]

I think that Veleno is very unlikely to be there right?

Either way, to come away with the draft you just did i'd be super happy.

Players fall all the time, but considering the lack of centres in the top 15, I doubt Veleno is one of them.

And yeah, very happy with how this trade down scenario worked out

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Where are you guys doing the draft sims? Message me please if you can't post on here.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Players fall all the time, but considering the lack of centres in the top 15, I doubt Veleno is one of them.

And yeah, very happy with how this trade down scenario worked out

I feel like you have a good shot at a 2 and 3C with those top 3 selections even if 1 busts. Plus likely another shot at a defenseman of some level. Wouldn't mind a Euro goalie or RUS/SWE pick in round 5 either over the Carter Robertson pick either.

 

[AppsSyl]

Decided to do a trade down simulation. Hated myself because Veleno was on the board at 25 but I had to trade down.

What simulator did you use?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Decided to do a trade down simulation. Hated myself because Veleno was on the board at 25 but I had to trade down.

We aren't moving down 12 spots for a 3rd rounder. We moved down from 25 to 29 in 2015 and got a late 2nd rounder. Then got the 68th overall pick for going from 29 to 34. No way we are only getting one of those picks and ending up lower, especially in a draft where there's a larger talent gap between the picks.

Only trades I think the Leafs would consider is Detroit for 33 + 36, Montreal for 35, 38 and some later round pick, or Tampa's pick + their 2nd rounder. From there, maybe they trade down again to get another 3rd or something, or maybe they are willing to include the 83rd pick to get 29 and 46 from STL or something and then move down from 29 to an early 30's pick to get a 3rd rounder back.

 

[Mikeyg]

I could basically guarantee you that we are going for a boom bust euro with our first pick. Dubas has an inefficiency based draft approach, hes not going to pull from the overscouted chl with our first pick as a result

 

[Judas Tavares]

We aren't moving down 12 spots for a 3rd rounder. We moved down from 25 to 29 in 2015 and got a late 2nd rounder. Then got the 68th overall pick for going from 29 to 34. No way we are only getting one of those picks and ending up lower, especially in a draft where there's a larger talent gap between the picks.

Only trades I think the Leafs would consider is Detroit for 33 + 36, Montreal for 35, 38 and some later round pick, or Tampa's pick + their 2nd rounder. From there, maybe they trade down again to get another 3rd or something, or maybe they are willing to include the 83rd pick to get 29 and 46 from STL or something and then move down from 29 to an early 30's pick to get a 3rd rounder back.

Would absolutely do either one no questions asked.

 

[SprDaVE]

I could basically guarantee you that we are going for a boom bust euro with our first pick. Dubas has an inefficiency based draft approach, hes not going to pull from the overscouted chl with our first pick as a result

I think that's being a little too narrow minded. I think there are plenty of players in the CHL that are overlooked for really bad reasons, one of them being their size, or ice time/deployment or some form of character/work ethic problem.

One thing that Dubas is completely against is recency and cognitive bias. Some scouts overvalue the WJC's or even the U-18, which is just a small tournament but some scouts really change their rankings and views on players in that tournament. I remember Burke talking about Biggs and his U-17/18s where he was captain and looked really good. I remember Percy being really good in a small sample size at the Memorial cup as well. Just small examples here for that.

It's important to look at them through the year, or even in the past couple years in their respective league, not just rise up or down players based on a tournament where a player can get red hot or ice cold in that time frame.

 

[Cor]

What simulator did you use?

Draftwired

 

[Cor]

We aren't moving down 12 spots for a 3rd rounder. We moved down from 25 to 29 in 2015 and got a late 2nd rounder. Then got the 68th overall pick for going from 29 to 34. No way we are only getting one of those picks and ending up lower, especially in a draft where there's a larger talent gap between the picks.

Only trades I think the Leafs would consider is Detroit for 33 + 36, Montreal for 35, 38 and some later round pick, or Tampa's pick + their 2nd rounder. From there, maybe they trade down again to get another 3rd or something, or maybe they are willing to include the 83rd pick to get 29 and 46 from STL or something and then move down from 29 to an early 30's pick to get a 3rd rounder back.

I didn’t make the program. It’s not manual trades. You can click a “trade up” or “trade down” button and brings up pick for pick deals and the value each team gets.

 

[Mikeyg]

I think that's being a little too narrow minded. I think there are plenty of players in the CHL that are overlooked for really bad reasons, one of them being their size, or ice time/deployment or some form of character/work ethic problem.

One thing that Dubas is completely against is recency and cognitive bias. Some scouts overvalue the WJC's or even the U-18, which is just a small tournament but some scouts really change their rankings and views on players in that tournament. I remember Burke talking about Biggs and his U-17/18s where he was captain and looked really good. I remember Percy being really good in a small sample size at the Memorial cup as well. Just small examples here for that.

It's important to look at them through the year, or even in the past couple years in their respective league, not just rise up or down players based on a tournament where a player can get red hot or ice cold in that time frame.

its just a gut feel man, lots of good euros at the end of the first in the past decade.

 

[Northernguy10]

Barring any surprises falling in our lap or move back/ups I would like the Leafs to draft one of the following:

Noel - Big Power forward unlike anything in this draft. These players are hard to find
Samuellson - Stay at home D man who is the best defensive dman after Dahlin according to scouts. Also skates well and can make an outlet pass. 6"4 and growing
Dellandrea - Tenacious player who basically is on an island in Flint and still put up great points. Didnt look out of place at World Juniors

Or go and try and hit a homerun with Merkley

I like your picks but I'd reverse your order...I've liked Dellandrea for some time now and hope he can become a 3rd line center in the next 3-4 years with hopefully upside as a 2nd line pivot down the road...I'm fine with Samuellson and on the fence with Noel....Merkley I'm okay with as a second round flyer "if" the staff determines he's "fixable" through the interview process and any inside info they can gather.

 

[MyBudJT]

I could see Dubas using some assets to try and improve a couple of draft picks

To MTL: SJS 2nd (52nd OA) + Connor Carrick
To TOR: MTL 2nd (35th OA)

To NYI: SJS 3rd (83rd OA) + Josh Leivo
To TOR: NYI 2nd (43rd OA) + NYI 5th 2019

To DET: TOR 1st (25th OA) + Andrew Nielsen + Dmitro Timashov
To TOR: VGK 1st (30th* OA) + Ottawa 2nd (33rd OA)

To EDM: Curtis McElhinney
To TOR: EDM 6th (164th OA)

30th OA: RW Martin Kaut (CZE) [6'1]
33rd OA: LD Matthias Samuelsson (USA) [6'4]
35th OA: RD Ryan Merkley (CAN) [5'11]
43rd OA: LC David Gustafsson (SWE) [6'1]
118th OA: RC Semyon Der-Arguchenstev (RUS) [5'10]
149th OA: LW Oliver Okuliar (SVK) [6'1]
164th OA: RC Connor Roberts (CAN) [6'3]
208th OA: G Jacob Ingham (CAN) [6'3]
210th OA: RD Simon Johansson OA (SWE) [6'2]

 

[AppsSyl]

Draftwired

Thanks Cor.

 

[67Cup]

Some near random thoughts:
When Dubas was acting GM for the 2015 draft, he was certainly trying to trade #4 (Marner, as it turned out) to Columbus for their pick plus x. Columbus turned him down per a clip caught on tape. Did he think Marner would slip to 7 or did he hope for Provorov or Werenski? Who knows, but we know he tried. We also know he did trade down from pick 24, and subsequently 29 for multiple later picks. In short, there is a track record of trading down. But the prospect pool was very shallow at that time. Maybe, he will feel that the situation is different now. Still, nobody should be surprised if he does trade down from 25.

It should be remembered that Dubas is an OHL raised guy, like Hunter.

I doubt that the Leafs would get two early 2nd round picks for 25. The relative value of picks is much better quantified than in 2011. Besides, Burke strikes me as a more impulsive, intuition based guy and management of most teams may be more numbers oriented now. I think the proposed trade with Vancouver may indeed be a little low on value but is more likely than either the Montreal or Detroit deals. Still, I agree that if either of those trades is actually offered, I think Dubas would snap it up.

Any rumours about who will be the acting head scout for the Leafs? Anyone the Leafs may hire away from another team would likely have the same conditions slapped on the contract as Hunter had