Speculation: 2018 NHL Draft Talk :)

[emptyNedder]

2nd Round - pick #42
Ty Dellandrea - C - 6'1" - 185 lbs. - 67gp - 27g - 32a - 59p
4th Round - pick #96
Samuel Fagemo - RW - 6' - 182 lbs. - 37gp - 19g - 11a - 30p
*played for Frolunda SuperElit

I really like Fagemo in the 4th if he is still there.

In the 2nd if Canes go for C, I think other options who should still be available are Jakub Lauko (who's is the same size as Dellandera and played in Czech adult league this season) , Jack Drury (who is a little smaller at 5'11" - 175 lbs., but seems to be a better scorer), or Liam Foudy (6' - 175 lbs, who is said to be the fastest of the centers). Any of the four would be solid picks in the second.

 

[Cane mutiny]

Here's a very quick set of draft suggestions (caveat - haven't done as much analysis as in year's past):

1st Round
Andrei Svechnikov (that took a lot of research)
2nd Round - pick #42
Ty Dellandrea - C - 6'1" - 185 lbs. - 67gp - 27g - 32a - 59p
4th Round - pick #96
Samuel Fagemo - RW - 6' - 182 lbs. - 37gp - 19g - 11a - 30p
*played for Frolunda SuperElit
4th Round - pick #104
Albin Eriksson - RW - 6'4" - 193 lbs. - 38gp - 22g - 18a - 40p
or
Axel Andersson - RHD - 6'1" - 182 lbs - 42gp - 6g - 25a - 31p
6th Round - Pick #166
Lukas Dostal - G - 6'1" - 186 lbs.
7th Round - pick #197
Jake Kucharski - G - 6'4" - 205 lbs.
7th Round - ~pick #216
Colin Schmidt - C/RW - 6'4" 229 lbs (MN high schooler) - 25gp - 12g - 27a - 39p

I'd love Dostal, but I'd be surprised if he made it past the third round.

 

[FaulkYouAho]

I'd love Dostal, but I'd be surprised if he made it past the third round.

not really i think that the first one will go in the 4th cause goalies is not for this draft. also i don't like him that much

 

[emptyNedder]

Svechnikov changes many things about the direction of the Canes. One I think that isn't as obvious is how the organization drafts.
Hockey-graphs had a podcast about drafting strategies about a year ago. The woman who was on the program talked about how she modeled drafting like an economist (a 10% chance of winning $500 is the same as a 50% chance of winning $100). Her point was that teams should draft boom or bust prospects after the first round because one Gaudreau is worth much more than safer picks who were drafted in the two rounds before him.

With the depth in the Canes' organization there seem to be several players who likely could be serviceable NHL forwards (Kuokkanen, Saarela, Bishop, in addition to the players likely to get a shot next year: Foegele, Zykov, Wallmark, plus newly signed or unsigned players like Geekie, Mattheos, and Luostarinen).

Given the depth of solid players in the organization, it makes sense to "swing for the fences" in the next two or three drafts. Perhaps the most sensible gamble (not really an oxymoron) would be to draft one or more high upside prospects who could play left wing with Necas at C and Svech at RW. I would be looking for speed and/or goal scoring--all-around play and/or high floor would be mostly beside the point. Suddenly it doesn't make sense to draft players who are safe bets to at least make it in the NHL. The Canes could be one player away from having two dynamic scoring lines--they should let that consideration guide their draft strategy this draft.

 

[Lempo]

She has an intriguing point there. With enough repeats you should end up better when going with the risk-neutral approach she advocates for, instead of the risk-aversive route of picking sure-bet NHL players. People generally being prone to opt for risk-aversion even with premium cost over risk-neutrality is why insurance companies have a multizillion dollar business.

The thing is, how the hell are you going to recognize the boom-busters out of the draft cohort to such extent that you get the "numbers" even approximately close to reality to do the econo-math?

 

[Vagrant]

it's a common misconception about svechnikov to assume he's a high risk player in my opinion. he's really decent defensively already, which is a big part of the puzzle. that combined with his effort and skating ability seem to suggest he'd have a pretty high floor. i don't see a way that a player with his competitive drive and those skills to match can be viewed as high risk unless there's some character defect. i've read nothing from scouts to say that has ever been a problem. scouting is done with such precision now it's hard to remember the last time that scouts collectively whiffed on the consensus first ranked forward being a player. you might have to go back to yakupov, and it seems like scouting has even evolved since then with the emphasis on advanced stat keeping. hockey is being measured in ways that it wasn't previously and that's relevant. it makes the variables a little more apparent.

 

[emptyNedder]

it's a common misconception about svechnikov to assume he's a high risk player in my opinion.

Vagrant, I was unclear--no intention to say Svechnikov was high risk. In fact, the podcast I referred to specifically mentioned that the high-risk strategy was mostly after the first 10 picks. From everything I have read, Svechnikov is a hard worker with solid character on and off the ice.

The thing is, how the hell are you going to recognize the boom-busters out of the draft cohort to such extent that you get the "numbers" even approximately close to reality to do the econo-math?

Lempo. I think the scouts have largely done this. For example, Carolina could target these players in the 2nd round:
Nicklas Nordgren. He has been a top scorer at every level, but scouts say his skating and size are concerns. However, if he is capable of translating the scoring to the NHL he has tremendous upside.
Liam Foudy. Considered the fastest skater among those who will be available in 2nd. Adding his speed to Necas would make a line that would create havoc.
Jakub Lauko. As Draftin Europe says "with his outstanding acceleration and straight line speed he’s a real threat on the rush." Again, that sounds like a risk worth taking to add to a Necas/Svechnikov line, plus the Canes would get a Czech connection to add to their Finnish pair.

I will share what I consider high-reward options for the 4th round at another time.

 

[Lempo]

There's an older Niklas Nordgren playing in SHL. The precedent is clear.

Pass the economics, go long with voodoo.

edit: actually not-active nowadays, but on the other hand a Hurricanes 8th round draftee in 1997.

I'm sorry but the potential reward is too big to pass. #bring_in_n_n

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

There's an older Niklas Nordgren playing in SHL. The precedent is clear.

Pass the economics, go long with voodoo.

edit: actually not-active nowadays, but on the other hand a Hurricanes 8th round draftee in 1997.

I'm sorry but the potential reward is too big to pass. #bring_in_n_n

He was part of the Recchi trade in 06. We never would have won the cup without him. I’m on board.

 

[tarheelhockey]

it's a common misconception about svechnikov to assume he's a high risk player in my opinion. he's really decent defensively already, which is a big part of the puzzle. that combined with his effort and skating ability seem to suggest he'd have a pretty high floor. i don't see a way that a player with his competitive drive and those skills to match can be viewed as high risk unless there's some character defect. i've read nothing from scouts to say that has ever been a problem. scouting is done with such precision now it's hard to remember the last time that scouts collectively whiffed on the consensus first ranked forward being a player. you might have to go back to yakupov, and it seems like scouting has even evolved since then with the emphasis on advanced stat keeping. hockey is being measured in ways that it wasn't previously and that's relevant. it makes the variables a little more apparent.

And with Yakupov, it's mainly a matter of his having a generationally low level of hockey sense to go along with his skills. There's not a lot you can do to predict that issue coming up to the degree it did with him. Most people can be taught, and most people who have spent their entire lives in hockey "get" the game. With him, it just never came together. Without the benefit of hindsight I think you take that risk every time.

And, crucially, even if the Oilers had been warned against taking Yak by a strange man in a DeLorean, their next pick would have been Alex Galchenyk. Who would in turn have been considered a massive disappointment for a 1OA. Some drafts just suck like that.

 

[Lempo]

10 A doesn't quite roll from the tongue like 1.21 GW.

 

[emptyNedder]

More high risk options for round 4.

Samuel Fagemo--I like Not Opie's suggestion of Fagemo. He is a goal scorer, not many assists but quite a few goals the last two seasons. He has dropped from a likely late 2nd rounder.
Linus Nyman--Actually my favorite player with a high ceiling (only if the Canes don't take Nordgren, because drafting two 5'9" players is a stretch even if both are high reward types). He is really quick and actually uses his lack of size to find open spots close to the net. Amazingly scores on almost as many rebounds as rushes. An overager by two months.
Toni Utunen--Finnish defenseman who has shown the ability to get on the score sheet in the Hlinka and U18s.
Linus Karlsson--Led the Swedish superelit league in scoring, getting more goals per game than either Dominik Bokk or Jonatan Berggren (both of whom are late 1st/early 2nd projections). He is getting noticed as he made the single biggest jump in NHL Central Scouting.
Oliver Okuliar--Slovakian player who put up extreme numbers in Slovak juniors, then backed it up with 8 points in 5 U18 games.

 

[Lempo]

Definitely Fagemo. You can bounce quarters of his mental fortitude if he has survived in juvenile men teamsports to this level.

 

[BrindAmours Army]

Take Svechnikov and then just draft goalies with every other pick. Throw *all* the darts at the goalie board.

Or use the other picks to get a goalie.

At least do something goalie related that doesn't involve #2.

 

[CandyCanes]

Take Svechnikov and then just draft goalies with every other pick. Throw *all* the darts at the goalie board.

Or use the other picks to get a goalie.

At least do something goalie related that doesn't involve #2.

I initially thought drafting that many goalies would create an eventual log jam at the AHL. But than had an idea. What if we were to draft a large handful of European goalies since they wouldn't have to play in the AHL like goalies coming from the Juniors do? We could have a ton of European goalies just develop in the pro leagues in Europe and never have to worry about them splitting starts in the AHL. Wonder if any NHL team has thought about that? I wouldn't be opposed to taking 3-4 European goalies in the late rounds. You could probably get even crazier with this strategy and pick up a few more random 6-7th round draft picks from teams for dirt and take even more Euro goalies. Draft like 7-8 European goalies, let them all develop in Europe, and one of those 7-8 darts would be bound to hopefully pan out.

P.S. I know this would never happen in real life. But if I was the GM of the Canes I'd get creative like this since we are in desperate need of a goalie. I'm crazy and think a stratedgy like that could actually work haha. You all should call for Dundon to hire me and replace Waddell.

 

[AD Skinner]

At least do something goalie related that doesn't involve #2.

I'd say the goalie situation has involved #2 since around 2014

 

[GoldiFox]

I initially thought drafting that many goalies would create an eventual log jam at the AHL. But than had an idea. What if we were to draft a large handful of European goalies since they wouldn't have to play in the AHL like goalies coming from the Juniors do? We could have a ton of European goalies just develop in the pro leagues in Europe and never have to worry about them splitting starts in the AHL. Wonder if any NHL team has thought about that? I wouldn't be opposed to taking 3-4 European goalies in the late rounds. You could probably get even crazier with this strategy and pick up a few more random 6-7th round draft picks from teams for dirt and take even more Euro goalies. Draft like 7-8 European goalies, let them all develop in Europe, and one of those 7-8 darts would be bound to hopefully pan out.

P.S. I know this would never happen in real life. But if I was the GM of the Canes I'd get creative like this since we are in desperate need of a goalie. I'm crazy and think a stratedgy like that could actually work haha. You all should call for Dundon to hire me and replace Waddell.

Do all the best ones say “hey there are too many of us here” and just re-enter the Draft like Freddy Andersen?

 

[My Special Purpose]

Here's the biggest issue with the plan. At a minimum, it's 3-4 seasons before a guy we draft is ready for the NHL. If we don't address and solve our goalie issue by then, there will be no fans left to care.

Of course the upside to our issue is that we're only one guy away from solving the problem.

 

[CandyCanes]

Here's the biggest issue with the plan. At a minimum, it's 3-4 seasons before a guy we draft is ready for the NHL. If we don't address and solve our goalie issue by then, there will be no fans left to care.

Of course the upside to our issue is that we're only one guy away from solving the problem.

And that's why I think getting a guy like Rinne if he's available would be huge, he can fill that 3-4 year gap.

I truly think getting a really good 2-3 year stop gap, drafting a handful of goalies, and maybe even trading for a high end goalie prospect too would be a really smart summer for the Canes.

 

[geehaad]

Not that the Canes don’t need to continue to draft goalies, but they certainly don’t need to fill the cupboard with them now. The time to do that was 4-5 years ago...but they had glaring holes at every position, unfortunately.

With Ned/Booth/Helvig/etc, they need a stop-gap until the kids prove what they’ve got. In the meantime, continue to select a quality pick or two each year. No need to use all the darts on that one position, though.

 

[Vagrant]

there are certainly targets around the league worth investigating. grubauer could potentially shake loose. tristan jarry for the penguins might be available if they decide they want to go with a murray/desmith tandem next year. i have a feeling that whatever we do with skinner is going to influence what we do in net. we either need someone to take darling with retention or we need to get a top flight goalie prospect in exchange. perhaps both if we can find the right situation. JR might have a comfort level with skinner and he would be an absolute nightmare with crosby if he could play a bit more deferential.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not that the Canes don’t need to continue to draft goalies, but they certainly don’t need to fill the cupboard with them now. The time to do that was 4-5 years ago...but they had glaring holes at every position, unfortunately.

With Ned/Booth/Helvig/etc, they need a stop-gap until the kids prove what they’ve got. In the meantime, continue to select a quality pick or two each year. No need to use all the darts on that one position, though.

I agree. I was being sarcastic earlier. I'm fine with the strategy the team has been using, particularly with how many picks they had over the past 4 years and I'd like it to continue.

 

[Caniackid]

“Obviously getting the No. 2 pick in the NHL draft coming up probably means we’re going to be able to put a player right on our team. If we keep the pick, which it looks like that’s the way it’s going right now – that’s exciting. We have Marty Necas, who we drafted last year in the first round, that we feel is going to make the jump this year to the NHL.

Sounds like they want a player ready to jump in next year. Assuming that means Filip or Svech.

Source: Waddell | Hurricanes know change is needed

 

[bluedevil58]

Better not draft based on chemistry with Necas.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Sounds like they want a player ready to jump in next year. Assuming that means Filip or Svech.

Source: Waddell | Hurricanes know change is needed

I'll say this about Waddell, he's talking the talk. The same stuff that is obvious to us seems to be obvious him (and Dundon).

It sounds like Jeffrey is almost certainly gone. It seems like the writing is on the wall on that one. Maybe he asked? Maybe other players pointed the finger in exit interviews? Maybe he hit on Dundon's assistant? Maybe it's just a change of scenery. Whatever the reason, I just hope we do well with the trade. I like Skinner and I think he can still be a top scorer in this league in the right situation.