Speculation: 2018 NHL Draft Talk :)

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Skinner will score 35 again in the league, whatever team he’s on.

 

[Lempo]

I'll say this about Waddell, he's talking the talk. The same stuff that is obvious to us seems to be obvious him (and Dundon).

It sounds like Jeffrey is almost certainly gone. It seems like the writing is on the wall on that one. Maybe he asked? Maybe other players pointed the finger in exit interviews? Maybe it's just a change of scenery. Whatever the reason, I just hope we do well with the trade. I like Skinner and I think he can still be a top scorer in this league in the right situation.

True story from my whereabouts: the company owner/boss walked on one of his workers doing the nasty with his secretary at the premises.

The guy told afterwards that the boss's jocular and laughing "Why, Carl, you had to go and do such a thing on your last day in the job!" was the finest formulated sentence he had ever been let go from a job with.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Skinner will score 35 again in the league, whatever team he’s on.

Yes he will. Maybe even 40.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yes he will. Maybe even 40.

Maybe 42?

NOTE: probably not 43

 

[The Faulker 27]

Maybe 42?

NOTE: probably not 43

42.5. He'll score one on his own goal which will half negate the 43rd. I psychic told
me this.

 

[Vagrant]

the problem with skinner is almost entirely contract based in my opinion. when you pay too much on the second contract, you almost always end up losing that player on the third. we gave jeff open market value on the assumption that he was going to trend up. since he never really found that next gear, his salary was pretty in line with his production. now as he approaches unrestricted status, he's expecting a raise... which is logical, but not deserved. so in order to retain him, you're going to have to start going into the $7 million space and he's simply not the type of player that should eat up that much of your budget. if/when he scores 35 goals for a team in the future, that will be the entirety of his contribution to that team winning games.

 

[The Faulker 27]

the problem with skinner is almost entirely contract based in my opinion. when you pay too much on the second contract, you almost always end up losing that player on the third. we gave jeff open market value on the assumption that he was going to trend up. since he never really found that next gear, his salary was pretty in line with his production. now as he approaches unrestricted status, he's expecting a raise... which is logical, but not deserved. so in order to retain him, you're going to have to start going into the $7 million space and he's simply not the type of player that should eat up that much of your budget. if/when he scores 35 goals for a team in the future, that will be the entirety of his contribution to that team winning games.

I don't follow contracts all that closely on hockey outside of term and length, and definitely not in other sports but it seems that's an issue with contracts in general. It doesn't account for all aspects of a players game. I realize that would be hard to implement, but a player like Skinner shouldn't get the same contract as another player with comparable goals/points but has other facets to offer ie good FO%, defensive responsibility, etc. As you said, Skinner will score 30-40 goals again, but he'll be a dumpster fire in other aspects. He'll contribute to goals against, guaranteed.

 

[Vagrant]

I don't follow contracts all that closely on hockey outside of term and length, and definitely not in other sports but it seems that's an issue with contracts in general. It doesn't account for all aspects of a players game. I realize that would be hard to implement, but a player like Skinner shouldn't get the same contract as another player with comparable goals/points but has other facets to offer ie good FO%, defensive responsibility, etc. As you said, Skinner will score 30-40 goals again, but he'll be a dumpster fire in other aspects. He'll contribute to goals against, guaranteed.

it does feel like we're getting there in some respects. the more executives start to move away from counting stats and towards analytics, the better chance that has of becoming a reality. the counting stats are still a part of the picture obviously, but there's no reason in the world why skinner on the open market is going to get a comparable contract to patrice bergeron. it's just an absurdity.

 

[Lempo]

the problem with skinner is almost entirely contract based in my opinion. when you pay too much on the second contract, you almost always end up losing that player on the third. we gave jeff open market value on the assumption that he was going to trend up. since he never really found that next gear, his salary was pretty in line with his production. now as he approaches unrestricted status, he's expecting a raise... which is logical, but not deserved. so in order to retain him, you're going to have to start going into the $7 million space and he's simply not the type of player that should eat up that much of your budget. if/when he scores 35 goals for a team in the future, that will be the entirety of his contribution to that team winning games.

Unless among the contract makers there's a certain mutual understanding that that the price-finding in RFA and UFA stage salaries are not to be determined on comparable basis. It may well be that Skinner is understood to have an implied commonly bargained "right" to a raise at entering UFA whether or not his performance would warrant one when moving from contract to another.

The CBA kind of supports the notion: The Salary Arbitration rules of RFAs especially state that any SPC of an UFA player is not allowed evidence in the procedure, while player's length of service in the league/Club is. There obviously and officially are off-ice considerations in the play too.

And naturally, certain players on ELC get fleeced and hosed courtesy of the CBA Entry-level Salary rules, which the PA actively allows to happen. The members of the Players collective with longevity on NHL level get their quid pro that quo after seven or so years in the league. If an individual Club can't stomach giving the UFA raise to an individual player because the fans would revolt, he's prone to get it elsewhere in the League.

The NHLPA is such a union that it makes me feel skeevy despite being unionized myself

Skinner will be an interesting case study in Dundo's journey to join the old boy's club. Skinner's agent and at least 30 GMs certainly have an idea of Skinner's possible UFA Salary. Fun to see if there'll be a ridiculously high windfall raise as GMs wish to make it seen what they think about lowballing GMs, I mean UFAs.

 

[Novacane]

Truly a collaborative approach

 

[MinJaBen]

Truly a collaborative approach

We are all working for free now. Waddell's days are numbered.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I see they ordered them using the @HankAnger method prospect ranking.

 

[BabchukCanon]

I see they ordered them using the @HankAnger method prospect ranking.

They did alphabetical.

 

[vorbis]

I really enjoy these shift by shift videos to get an idea of how these prospects play beyond potting and celebrating goals.





there's a ridiculous amount of video here (2+ hours in each video) but I've just been keeping them in a fav folder and watching 5 minutes here, 10 minutes there. maybe I'll write up some thoughts when I've watched the majority of both of them.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Truly a collaborative approach

"Should"?

 

[Lempo]

"Should"?

"used to indicate obligation, duty, or correctness, typically when criticizing someone's actions"

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

They did alphabetical.

Yes, that's what I was saying. Last year (or was it two years ago), when everyone was doing their prospect rankings, Hank did his list by just listing them all alphabetically.

 

[Tryamw]

Better than Won't

 

[Navin R Slavin]

"Jack of All Svechnikanes" wins the thread.

 

[Brock Anton]

I;m mad that they even put Tkachuk's name in that tweet.

 

[Unsustainable]

I;m mad that they even put Tkachuk's name in that tweet.

Not when we trade Skinner for the 4OA pick also.

 

[GoldiFox]

I really enjoy these shift by shift videos to get an idea of how these prospects play beyond potting and celebrating goals.





there's a ridiculous amount of video here (2+ hours in each video) but I've just been keeping them in a fav folder and watching 5 minutes here, 10 minutes there. maybe I'll write up some thoughts when I've watched the majority of both of them.

Great resources. I'm about 30 minutes into Svechnikov's after starting with Zadina.

Svechnikov is fun to watch shift-by-shift. He's like the Slavin of offense in that he is constantly generating heady plays. A re-occurring theme which looks weird is that Svechnikov will have a puck and just mindlessly flick it away. It almost looks like is doing it negligently but those passes constantly find guys for prime scoring chances with the thought of "how did he even see that developing?". His playmaking might be even better than his shooting arsenal. He sees the play developing at an Aho-level.

Also worth noting that he floats from the dots to the net front on the PP creating screens and shooting lanes. That is a role the Canes could really use.

 

[MinJaBen]

Great resources. I'm about 30 minutes into Svechnikov's after starting with Zadina.

Svechnikov is fun to watch shift-by-shift. He's like the Slavin of offense in that he is constantly generating heady plays. A re-occurring theme which looks weird is that Svechnikov will have a puck and just mindlessly flick it away. It almost looks like is doing it negligently but those passes constantly find guys for prime scoring chances with the thought of "how did he even see that developing?". His playmaking might be even better than his shooting arsenal. He sees the play developing at an Aho-level.

Also worth noting that he floats from the dots to the net front on the PP creating screens and shooting lanes. That is a role the Canes could really use.

It is shit like this that will be so infuriating when we pick Tkachuk.

 

[vorbis]

Great resources. I'm about 30 minutes into Svechnikov's after starting with Zadina.

Svechnikov is fun to watch shift-by-shift. He's like the Slavin of offense in that he is constantly generating heady plays. A re-occurring theme which looks weird is that Svechnikov will have a puck and just mindlessly flick it away. It almost looks like is doing it negligently but those passes constantly find guys for prime scoring chances with the thought of "how did he even see that developing?". His playmaking might be even better than his shooting arsenal. He sees the play developing at an Aho-level.

Also worth noting that he floats from the dots to the net front on the PP creating screens and shooting lanes. That is a role the Canes could really use.

some things I've liked from Svechnikov in this video:
+ several notable hustle plays at the end of a shift, and often goes immediately into attack mode on face-offs, that aspect really pops off the screen.
+ very assertive play in general, he clearly knows he's almost always the most skilled player on the ice in games he plays, and really weaponizes his skills nicely (skating, passing, puck handling, balance and "heavy skating").
+ very comfortable being the "head of the spear" when it comes to the physical part of the game. knows that he's a focal point for the other team to push around, knows that he's agitating defenders, and still willing to sit in the crease and take the elbows and slashes (delivers them also as a natural part of his game). he DGAF and that attitude goes a long way towards establishing the tone of these games.
+ he's very much like Necas in that he has that effortless 4th gear. I remember in the preseason watching Necas just glide around in the neutral zone not even pumping his legs to gather steam, just coasting at a very high speed as if it was the easiest thing in the world. he didn't even necessarily have a plan, just his default mode was zooming around. not sure if it would work putting two rookies on the same line, but their transition play styles are a fantastic match because of this commonality.
+ uses that effortless 4th gear to occasionally be a total beast in forechecking. very much like EStaal when he cared. forces subpar passes simply because he overwhelms the puck handler with his speed barreling right at them.
+ he has a p-h-e-n-o-m-e-n-a-l touch pass and in general loves to amp up the pace through quick passing. his touch pass should get him around 10 assists per season by itself, I would think.
+ very natural possession player on the forecheck. there was a couple situations where he skated out for the last 20 seconds of the PK (didn't see a ton of PK time otherwise) and just beasted his way to grabbing the puck, using his stick to keep possession, and just melt away PK time like it was nothing.
+ play attitude is an asset, always push, push, push with this guy. I think there's a great opportunity for his game to open up in a big way with more skilled linemates.
+ lethal release and wrister, he can let it rip no matter the status of his base, very naturally balances on one leg and still emits laser beams.
+ good puck support in general and because he can lock and load that wrister so rapidly, he doesn't have to have ideal spacing or an angle to put immediate pressure on the defense in transition.

 

[CandyCanes]

some things I've liked from Svechnikov in this video:
+ several notable hustle plays at the end of a shift, and often goes immediately into attack mode on face-offs, that aspect really pops off the screen.
+ very assertive play in general, he clearly knows he's almost always the most skilled player on the ice in games he plays, and really weaponizes his skills nicely (skating, passing, puck handling, balance and "heavy skating").
+ very comfortable being the "head of the spear" when it comes to the physical part of the game. knows that he's a focal point for the other team to push around, knows that he's agitating defenders, and still willing to sit in the crease and take the elbows and slashes (delivers them also as a natural part of his game). he DGAF and that attitude goes a long way towards establishing the tone of these games.
+ he's very much like Necas in that he has that effortless 4th gear. I remember in the preseason watching Necas just glide around in the neutral zone not even pumping his legs to gather steam, just coasting at a very high speed as if it was the easiest thing in the world. he didn't even necessarily have a plan, just his default mode was zooming around. not sure if it would work putting two rookies on the same line, but their transition play styles are a fantastic match because of this commonality.
+ uses that effortless 4th gear to occasionally be a total beast in forechecking. very much like EStaal when he cared. forces subpar passes simply because he overwhelms the puck handler with his speed barreling right at them.
+ he has a p-h-e-n-o-m-e-n-a-l touch pass and in general loves to amp up the pace through quick passing. his touch pass should get him around 10 assists per season by itself, I would think.
+ very natural possession player on the forecheck. there was a couple situations where he skated out for the last 20 seconds of the PK (didn't see a ton of PK time otherwise) and just beasted his way to grabbing the puck, using his stick to keep possession, and just melt away PK time like it was nothing.
+ play attitude is an asset, always push, push, push with this guy. I think there's a great opportunity for his game to open up in a big way with more skilled linemates.
+ lethal release and wrister, he can let it rip no matter the status of his base, very naturally balances on one leg and still emits laser beams.
+ good puck support in general and because he can lock and load that wrister so rapidly, he doesn't have to have ideal spacing or an angle to put immediate pressure on the defense in transition.

I still can't believe we're picking #2 (please be Svech) & bringing in a top 10 prospect in Necas.

The Calder Trophy race is gonna be fun for us to follow next season.