Shouldn't you just wait till after the finals so you know for certain the draft order? What other events are there that could change the order at this point?
Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft Part I
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I read voraciously on all 31 teams, while continuing to watch film on prospects. Draft eligibles are like stock in the sense that they rise and fall for certain reasons leading up to the draft.
For instance, Casey Mittelstadt had the talent to be a top-3 pick last year. But a poor showing at the scouting combine dropped him in public estimation, and he wound up going 8th overall to Buffalo. Who went 7th but Lias Andersson -- a very solid, two-way middle six LW/C prospect, certainly, but the talent discrepancy between Mittelstadt and Andersson is comparable to the talent discrepancy between, say, Patrick Kane and Josh Bailey.
This year, Jesperi Kotkaniemi was widely considered to be a pick in the mid-teens, but he was absolutely stunning at the IIHF. There is now talk of him being a possible top 5 pick.
Teams also change priorities. If the Islanders get close to re-signing Tavares, for example, there is a greater chance of them trading one of their two first round picks in order to get Johnny T some help now. Or Ottawa -- many pundits have them taking Tkachuk at #4 overall, but if they decide to trade Karlsson it is possible they go in the direction of Adam Boqvist, a similarly-styled player to Karlsson at the same RD position, with the fourth pick. Ottawa also has the #22 pick -- if they take a F at #4, they are most likely (judging on the history of teams with multiple first rounders) to take a D at #22, and vise versa.
So, I suppose you can say that a lot can still change between late May and late June, when the draft is actually held.
Right. I knew the combine would/could change things. I didn't know if there were any games, international or prospect, that some of them would pay in. I presume the draft order is all settled except for 30/31 spots.
Cheddabombs
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Brock, the OHL scout pretty sure he posts on the prospects board frequently, had a recent mock with us taking Smith. That would be great if he fell to us
I really like where we are in the draft. There are a couple of names that stick out from the rest but for the most part when I think of we could pick im happy that there are so many names to choose from. Miller, Wilde, Bokk, Kravstov, Smith, McIsaac may be a bit of a reach but I'd be fine with him at 17 to be honest, even more fine if they traded back and got him too. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few names too.
And of course Kotkaniemi is still my #1 but I've become resigned to the fact he won't be there at 17.
I really like where we are in the draft. There are a couple of names that stick out from the rest but for the most part when I think of we could pick im happy that there are so many names to choose from. Miller, Wilde, Bokk, Kravstov, Smith, McIsaac may be a bit of a reach but I'd be fine with him at 17 to be honest, even more fine if they traded back and got him too. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few names too.
And of course Kotkaniemi is still my #1 but I've become resigned to the fact he won't be there at 17.
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R8Devs
1-5-6-12
This is Adam Ginning in this picture:
of course it doesn't mean much because they interview a lot of players but he's a LD ranked on ISS at #17 and #5 EU skater (ahead of Kotkaniemi) on Central Scouting. don't actually know what round he'll probably go in the draft though
of course it doesn't mean much because they interview a lot of players but he's a LD ranked on ISS at #17 and #5 EU skater (ahead of Kotkaniemi) on Central Scouting. don't actually know what round he'll probably go in the draft though
I can't see Ginning going to NJ in any scenario.
It is important to note that the CSS and ISS are the last of the "dinosaur" scouting services which still value size and physicality over speed and skill. Players like Ginning and Noel and Matthias Samuelsson tend to be over-ranked by them while players like Ty Smith and Akil Thomas tend to be under-ranked.
Ginning is a very solid, safe "stay-at-home" defenseman with second-pairing upside and a very high floor as a third-pairing, Brooks Orpik-type. But he is not first-round caliber in terms of skating or skill; traits which Shero and Castron have overtly coveted in the past two drafts.
I'm not saying the Devils could not use this type of player on their second or third pairing. NJ clearly lacked a physical presence on the blueline last year. But they're not going to take one at #17 overall. Not when they can wait until the 5th round and take a very similar prospect like Jack St. Ivany or Tyler Tucker.
R8Devs
1-5-6-12
Yeah I know how their rankings are, so it makes sense his value might be inflated there. Unless he drops like crazy I don't think the Devils could get him anyway because he doesn't seem like the type of player you might select at #17 for how the Devils are trending but I don't think he's going to drop all the way to the 4th round either -- which is the Devils next pick after their first pick barring any trades.
I only really recognized his face because he was on Pronman's do not draft list lol--this is what he said out about him
"Ginning is a big defenseman without great skill. I see a lot of things to like in his game. He’s a good skater for a big man, and he uses his mobility to close gaps and make a lot of stops. He’s also quite physical, leaning on players with his big frame. When you add in above-average defensive IQ, he can be a true shut-down defender. While his hands aren’t great, I think he moves the puck fine, but there have been times where he looked very limited. He can use his skating to get out of trouble and make decent outlets to take tough defensive minutes and get the puck in the right direction. I won’t advocate for him though."
Pronman: Do not draft -- Prospects not on my board
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Again, I like Ginning. I think he's definitely going to make the NHL. But he's not a first rounder in my book, not even close. He's very similar in talent and ceiling to Jack St. Ivany, whom the Devils could draft in the 5th round. Teams need a guy like Ginning to win, but they can usually be found in the mid-to-late rounds.
Is Pronman saying he would not draft Ginning at all, or just not in the 1st round?
I don't think Pronman is slighting Ginning as a player or a person, I think his "do not draft" list just signifies players who he expects will be drafted far higher than where Pronman has them ranked personally.
I agree in that -- do I like Ginning's potential to become an effective third-pairing D? Absolutely. Would I rank him as I first or second round pick (top 62 overall)? Absolutely not.
I just looked at my notes for my next thread, which will be the Top 10 Right Defensemen for the 2018 Draft. Ginning did not make the cut, and when I chose the #9 and #10, he did not merit serious consideration. But again, this is just one person's opinion. There are several scouts in the ISS and CSS who would call me crazy.
R8Devs
1-5-6-12
players I’m qualifying as the “do not draft” section. I need to put disclaimers on that second group. I’m not singling them out as players to not draft because they are very poor players or because I have something against them. Indeed, many of them would qualify for my “just missed” category. Rather, I’m discussing them because my impression is they could all be picked in the top three rounds, some of them possibly even the first round, and I want to relay why I think that wouldn’t be a wise decision.
Pronman: Do not draft -- Prospects not on my board
No harm in sitting down with a prospect for 15 minutes. Seems normal that you'd delve into subjects like their teammates. Apparently the Blue Jackets asked Jack Johnson (2005 Draft) about teammate Phil Kessel (2006 Draft) and Johnson gave a less than glowing review. The next year, Columbus' management asked Kessel about it during their interview. I vaguely recall hearing Nathan MacKinnon had told a team how much he loved playing with Josh Morrissey (they played in different leagues but had played together for Team Canada).
Never know if maybe you ask Ginning about a former teammate like Rasmus Sandin who's also in our range. The extra info never hurts, especially in light of Jeff Marek's story about the prospect with video game addiction. Getting more info from peers about what a guy is like off the ice can be useful.
Never know if maybe you ask Ginning about a former teammate like Rasmus Sandin who's also in our range. The extra info never hurts, especially in light of Jeff Marek's story about the prospect with video game addiction. Getting more info from peers about what a guy is like off the ice can be useful.
Whoever we pick was born during the Devils 2000 cup season. Mind blown.
So "do not draft" is inaccurate ya? Should be, "guys who could go in the first 3 rounds but shouldn't".
So it is guys he sees as being ranked too high.
Always felt the "do not draft" list was dumb. If a guy has 1st round talent, but a complete nut job, then sure don't draft that guy in the 1st round, but if he's there in the 5th round? Heck yeah you scoop that guy up.
I think you just bake in those concerns, and rank that player with those concerns in mind.
You're wasting time if you do that. Obviously a 'do not draft' list is not a 'should not be drafted' list, but your staff will have guys they like and guys they don't, and it's better to focus on the players you do like than the ones you don't. The odds that someone falls that far is quite unlikely.
1st to 5th was an extreme example, but 1st to 3rd is not that extreme.
Popugaev may have been a guy like that. Point maybe. Merrill with his off ice issues. I think Steve said Merkley is on some do not draft lists. And he may not be a guy that a team is that hot on as a 1st round pick, but if he's still floating around in the late 2nd round, that changes the outlook.
Somebody else pointed this out, but Scott Niedermayer's kid will be draft eligible next season. He was born ~9 months after the 2000 Cup win. To steal the OP's joke "He's Stanley Cup material".
The Devils claimed that Popugaev was above Walsh on their list but they wanted a D so they took Walsh, and then Popugaev lasted another round.
I'm not going to speculate about do not draft lists. I don't care who is on them or not. All I'm saying is that it makes sense for a given team to compile a list like Pronman has done instead of trying to rank every eligible player even if you are quite sure they won't get to you. You have a lot less homework to do in that case.
I didn't like homework much either......in High School. But when I went to college I realized it was important.
Time is money for NHL organizations. Making a list of 241 draft eligibles takes a lot of effort that could probably be spent elsewhere.
Drafts are also super important. Don't see the benefit of creating a do not draft list instead of a full board. Save $$$ somewhere else.
Last post on this - it's much easier to rank 80 players than it is to rank 240. If your organization has a philosophy, it's going to want certain guys and not want others - some guys won't fit into your organizational philosophy. And your organization will see some guys good - you'll see them when they're playing well and having an impact and see some guys bad when the scouts will happen to catch them on an off-night.
Pronman just went through his draft boards from previous years and simulated a draft where he was picking at the middle of each round - most times his 7th round pick was between 50 and 60 on his board and he seldom took a player deeper than 80th. He says:
"People who do real work on players, really break them down and have real opinions will not tend to conform to how the public thinks a draft board should look. I always say, if the public saw what most NHL team lists looked like, they would go crazy. I’ve been lucky enough to know NHL people who share that kind of information with me, and they also share similar experiences that 50s/60s on their boards is where their last picks tend to be."
So you're just wasting everyone's time by ranking 240 players. Your draft simply won't get that deep.
HenriquesJawLine
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