NFL: 2018 NFL draft prospects thread

[RedRenegade]

I don't really have a top pick but I'll be happy with any of these at #1 - Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold. If I had to pick one I might say Mayfield. Lamar Jackson would have my full support but I feel like he would be a bit more roll of the dice. Don't want Allen.

 

[member 157595]

I've not seen much of Allen but I sure didn't like what I saw. I know I'm oversimplifying this, but what good are Allen's physical attributes if he seemingly cannot throw accurately? I'd take Jackson over him easily.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I've not seen much of Allen but I sure didn't like what I saw. I know I'm oversimplifying this, but what good are Allen's physical attributes if he seemingly cannot throw accurately? I'd take Jackson over him easily.

The thing with accuracy numbers in college is that they can be skewed by the type of offense you run. You run a spread with heavy amounts of bubble screens and you're going to have a higher completion % than a pro style that goes down the field more often. I remember seeing something showing Jalen Hurts of Alabama threw 40% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and he never threw inside the hash marks, everything was to the sidelines. I don't know the tendencies for all the teams throwing patterns but I know Mayfield and Jackson were in more quick throw spreads while Darnold, Rosen and Allen pro style deep throws. That's why I think Rosen and Allen could be the most successful going forward.

 

[member 157595]

The thing with accuracy numbers in college is that they can be skewed by the type of offense you run. You run a spread with heavy amounts of bubble screens and you're going to have a higher completion % than a pro style that goes down the field more often. I remember seeing something showing Jalen Hurts of Alabama threw 40% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and he never threw inside the hash marks, everything was to the sidelines. I don't know the tendencies for all the teams throwing patterns but I know Mayfield and Jackson were in more quick throw spreads while Darnold, Rosen and Allen pro style deep throws. That's why I think Rosen and Allen could be the most successful going forward.

I totally agree that completion percentage is a highly flawed stat, and I have Rosen as my top QB this year. That said, Allen has great size and a great arm, but I haven't seen much evidence he can put the appropriate touch on a football consistently. Lamar Jackson also has a great arm and is more accurate than Allen even when making NFL throws IMO, and since neither is ready to start in the NFL yet I'm taking the one that not only throws the football better but who is a lightning-in-a-bottle athlete and a matchup nightmare. I'm no pro scout though.

 

[Dominator13]

Everyone talks about the Colts trading down again, but with Myles Garrett and Carlos Hyde already in town, I think the Browns would be crazy not trading that 4th overall to get more picks. They already get their franchise QB at #1.

If the Bills end up as a trade partner, they could get both McGlinchey and Hernandez to smooth the loss of Joe Thomas.

 

[Avs_19]

I don't like seeing people speculating about the run on OL that may come in the mid-late first round. I thought the Vikings might be able to choose from a couple of guys at 30 but there's a chance Wynn, Hernandez, Daniels, and Ragnow could all be gone by then.

 

[What the Faulk]

I don't like seeing people speculating about the run on OL that may come in the mid-late first round. I thought the Vikings might be able to choose from a couple of guys at 30 but there's a chance Wynn, Hernandez, Daniels, and Ragnow could all be gone by then.

That seems to be the likely position pick of the Panthers from what I understand

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Everyone talks about the Colts trading down again, but with Myles Garrett and Carlos Hyde already in town, I think the Browns would be crazy not trading that 4th overall to get more picks. They already get their franchise QB at #1.

If the Bills end up as a trade partner, they could get both McGlinchey and Hernandez to smooth the loss of Joe Thomas.

Depending on the Giants and Broncos both trade downs could reasonably happen, but I get the sense Cleveland just wants to stay put. Not sure who their guy is there, have a feeling it's Chubb.

The Colts are also interesting because I think they've zeroed in on one of the LBs. I think there's a good chance one or both will be there at 11 or 12 but that's a hell of a risk, one that really didnt pan out for me in the mock draft.

 

[Troy McClure]

The Browns would be stupid to trade down. They don't need more picks. They need players. A dude like Chubb would be an awesome addition. He would do a lot more for them than getting an extra pick next season.

 

[Beerfish]

The Browns would be stupid to trade down. They don't need more picks. They need players. A dude like Chubb would be an awesome addition. He would do a lot more for them than getting an extra pick next season.

Agreed, they already have a boat load of picks this year and they can get prime building blocks at 1 and 4.

 

[Hasbro]

The Browns would be stupid to trade down.

So you're not ruling it out.

 

[What the Faulk]

#ThanksSashi

 

[member 157595]

The Browns would be stupid to trade down. They don't need more picks. They need players. A dude like Chubb would be an awesome addition. He would do a lot more for them than getting an extra pick next season.

If the Giants keep their pick I don't know if Chubb makes it to #4. If he does, the Browns would be stupid (insert joke here) to pass him up. Garrett and Chubb together could cause OT nightmares.

 

[InjuredChoker]

The thing with accuracy numbers in college is that they can be skewed by the type of offense you run. You run a spread with heavy amounts of bubble screens and you're going to have a higher completion % than a pro style that goes down the field more often. I remember seeing something showing Jalen Hurts of Alabama threw 40% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and he never threw inside the hash marks, everything was to the sidelines. I don't know the tendencies for all the teams throwing patterns but I know Mayfield and Jackson were in more quick throw spreads while Darnold, Rosen and Allen pro style deep throws. That's why I think Rosen and Allen could be the most successful going forward.

comp. % is a flawed stat, especially in college. but with allen's comp % and YPA combo is so bad that like within the past 20 years no college QB with numbers like that has ever been successful. he also threw higher % of his passes (30%) 0-5 yards beyond the LOS than mayfield, rosen and darnold. allen certainly isn't accurate on tape either.

louisville under gutless mother f***er bobby petrino runs a pro style offense, it just has quite a bit of spread/option concepts mixed in. which applies for many NFL teams as well.

 

[Avs_19]

That seems to be the likely position pick of the Panthers from what I understand

I've seen that in a few mocks. Same with the Bengals and Titans.

 

[Troy McClure]

comp. % is a flawed stat, especially in college. but with allen's comp % and YPA combo is so bad that like within the past 20 years no college QB with numbers like that has ever been successful. he also threw higher % of his passes (30%) 0-5 yards beyond the LOS than mayfield, rosen and darnold. allen certainly isn't accurate on tape either.

louisville under gutless mother ****er bobby petrino runs a pro style offense, it just has quite a bit of spread/option concepts mixed in. which applies for many NFL teams as well.

There are ways to dig into these numbers to better understand what a guy brings. I remember Colt McCoy had super impressive completion percentages, but then one guy said if you look at passes that go only five yards beyond the line of scrimmage, McCoy's numbers became some of the worst when compared to his peers in college football. That certainly translated into him falling to the third round and struggling to do much as a pro.

I think with Allen the problem is no one can find any way to evaluate him without bringing up accuracy problems, whether you're looking at flawed completion percentage stats, situational/fancy stats, or watching tape.

 

[Boris Le Tigre]

Cleveland is in a pretty plumb spot right now. They might be able to get out of the draft with 2 of these 3 players: Barkley, Chubb, and Fitzpatrick.

Browns should avoid taking a QB first. This year’s draft is deep at QB and most reports are split in who they favour to be the best.

I’d take Barkley and (if Chubb /Fitzpatrick are not available at 4; trade down to a spot where they can get an OT/DB/DT and an extra pick.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I saw a blurb on Rotoworld that someone thinks the Browns will take two QBs in the top five. I think that’s an awful idea.

 

[member 157595]

I saw a blurb on Rotoworld that someone thinks the Browns will take two QBs in the top five. I think that’s an awful idea.

That's...a Carolina Reaper of a hot take. The Browns need playmakers everywhere, pick your top QB at #1 and develop him properly.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Yes, I'm the guy that thought Paxton Lynch would be great and Wentz would be a stiff. Guilty.

.....but I just don't see Allen.

 

[Avs_19]

I don't know how many of the draft analysts are factoring in a potential health concern with Hurst but his range is all over the place. I've seen him as a top 15 player in the entire draft and others don't even have him as a 1st round pick.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I don't know how many of the draft analysts are factoring in a potential health concern with Hurst but his range is all over the place. I've seen him as a top 15 player in the entire draft and others don't even have him as a 1st round pick.

Fanspeak's On the Clock NFL Mock Draft Simulator

This draft simulator has a large range for him, I've seen some with him as late as the top of the third round and some as high as #15.

 

[Troy McClure]

Yes, I'm the guy that thought Paxton Lynch would be great and Wentz would be a stiff. Guilty.

.....but I just don't see Allen.

He’s the one of these top four I would be disappointed to see the Browns take. They just went through trying to think their could coach Kizer into an accurate passer. Allen is certainly a better prospect than Kizer, but let some other team take Allen with the thought they can teach him to pass.

 

[edguy]

Josh Allen is such a polarizing guy.. The more I watch videos of his off season work the more I like him, but man why did he not dominate in college with an arm like that?

I still think the safe pick is Darnold, but Allen has an arm to be one of the best.

Hard to be disappointed with either, but one is wayy more raw of a prospect then the other.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Josh Allen is such a polarizing guy.. The more I watch videos of his off season work the more I like him, but man why did he not dominate in college with an arm like that?

I still think the safe pick is Darnold, but Allen has an arm to be one of the best.

Hard to be disappointed with either, but one is wayy more raw of a prospect then the other.

Because there is more to being a quarterback than arm strength. He has poor instincts and vision. Doesn't feel pressure. Darnold doesn't have his arm but he's a much better passer and has plus instincts and awareness.