NFL: 2018 NFL draft prospects thread

[InjuredChoker]

Teams don't disclose what metrics they use. That'd be kind of stupid. If anything way too many cling to outdated metrics like passer ratings and completion percentage. Not to mention counting stats like yards. Teams still miss on guys like Danielle Hunter and Yannik Ngakoue, who graded out well in regards in advanced pass rushing metrics but had underwhelming counting stats. I haven't seen anyone say the Browns are a success.

hunter graded well in advanced pass rush metrics? i can buy and actually believe firmly that ngakoue would've graded well but hunter.. i watched his tape and it looked nothing like the monster his today. granted, i'm probably a medicore scout at best but i'm pretty sure he didn't generate much pressure or anything.

or do you mean his workout metrics and stuff like that? there he would surely grade well. kid has about as good traits as anyone. kind of surprising he fell that far even with those traits, though it was pretty deep pass rusher class.

 

[Hasbro]

or some teams have way more advanced stuff that they would never want to become public?

It's a shame for anyone who hired off the Pats Belichik hasn't shared the source code.

And I don't see any tigers around either.

 

[Hasbro]

Teams don't disclose what metrics they use. That'd be kind of stupid. If anything way too many cling to outdated metrics like passer ratings and completion percentage. Not to mention counting stats like yards. Teams still miss on guys like Danielle Hunter and Yannik Ngakoue, who graded out well in regards in advanced pass rushing metrics but had underwhelming counting stats. I haven't seen anyone say the Browns are a success.

There's one in this thread.

 

[InjuredChoker]

It's a shame for anyone who hired off the Pats Belichik hasn't shared the source code.

And I don't see any tigers around either.

seems very belichick-like to me. especially if they come from ernie adams.

what tigers?

 

[Gene Parmesan]

hunter graded well in advanced pass rush metrics? i can buy and actually believe firmly that ngakoue would've graded well but hunter.. i watched his tape and it looked nothing like the monster his today. granted, i'm probably a medicore scout at best but i'm pretty sure he didn't generate much pressure or anything.

or do you mean his workout metrics and stuff like that? there he would surely grade well. kid has about as good traits as anyone. kind of surprising he fell that far even with those traits, though it was pretty deep pass rusher class.

Not only his physical traits but he was playing out of position at LSU. His reps at 5T and 2 gapping as a DT were not impressive because that's not who he is. When he lined up as a pass rusher, he generated pressure. Be it standing or down. Its how LSU runs their d-lineman. Gap and contain. He breaks the mold. It was a good risk to take for the Vikings.

 

[Hasbro]

seems very belichick-like to me. especially if they come from ernie adams.

What would be Belichickian would be crediting his success in analytics to chicken innards.

what tigers?

Thanks to Bill James Magic Rock!

Seriously if there is some super secret formula a few teams extrapolated from data which is available to anyone. Maybe any putz with a PFF login shouldn't act like an authority while assembling a click bait list.

 

[Hasbro]

You're so ****ing stupid (and proud of that fact) you can't even parse a debate. I never said anything remotely close to the Browns being a success. Thanks for validating my decision to put you in timeout.

You've been carrying Sashi Brown's water since he got fired.

 

[InjuredChoker]

What would be Belichickian would be crediting his success in analytics to chicken innards.

i think biggest reasons to his success are his football mind and luck (brady, kraft). exceptional football mind like him should be able to use stuff like analytics better than most. and even with BBs memory, he's still human. human memory has limits. don't think anyone can remember every play of every player for multiple seasons.

 

[Hasbro]

i think biggest reasons to his success are his football mind and luck (brady, kraft). exceptional football mind like him should be able to use stuff like analytics better than most. and even with BBs memory, he's still human. human memory has limits. don't think anyone can remember every play of every player for multiple seasons.

Given his knowledge of the rulebook back and forth, his memory certainly is a factor in his success. He's also been opperating from the tremendous luxury of not having to find a QB.

 

[m9]

I like what he did, but I don't think Sashi Brown did anything remarkable at all. The Titans just did something extremely similar and there will always be teams willing to mortgage the future to move up. You need to be a bad team to have those high picks originally with ownership that doesn't mind losing for a short period of time.

Yes, they got lucky with Watson's injury.. but you make those trades knowing anyone can get hurt in the NFL so you put yourself in position to be "lucky".

The fact is they just haven't really drafted well and haven't done well in free agency. The draft pick collecting strategy is great, but only if you complement it by doing other good things.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Sashi Brown wasn't even the first to do it. That stat nerd Jimmy Johnson did it first.

 

[Hasbro]

I like what he did, but I don't think Sashi Brown did anything remarkable at all. The Titans just did something extremely similar and there will always be teams willing to mortgage the future to move up. You need to be a bad team to have those high picks originally with ownership that doesn't mind losing for a short period of time.

The key difference they took their #2 pick and used it on a QB first AND then traded down

 

[Hasbro]

Sashi Brown wasn't even the first to do it. That stat nerd Jimmy Johnson did it first.

Give Tex Shramm some credit.

 

[TNT87]

Just curious as to whom you guys have as the top safeties? I despise Mike Mitchell and I would love to see the Steelers find his replacement in this draft.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Depends on what you want. Minkah Fitzpatrick is the best but he's not a deep safety like Earl Thomas. He's more of a Tyrann Mathieu type playmaker. Also a top 10 lock.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I wish Cleveland a franchise changing draft. It's difficult to pull off though.

Who do they pick? Who's the BPA? At first I was Rosen and Barker. Then I thought Chubb and Barker. They drafted a safety last year, no need for D. James. Kizer doesn't seem to be a starter. The o-line needs an upgrade so maybe Nelson is an option.

If they don't pick Chubb or a QB at #1, they should trade down. Get more picks.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Derwin James is not a top 5 or top 10 pick. Peppers is an atrocious safety. He has no range, poor instincts and makes no plays on the ball. He should be on offense. Rosen+Minkah Fitzpatrick. It ain't that hard.

 

[Hasbro]

Derwin James is not a top 5 or top 10 pick. Peppers is an atrocious safety. He has no range, poor instincts and makes no plays on the ball.

But analytics!

So anyway, how about the Oline class this year?

 

[Gene Parmesan]

You don't need analytics to tell you that an undersized safety would struggle playing deep and in coverage.

The O-line class is strong on the interior.

 

[m9]

Just curious as to whom you guys have as the top safeties? I despise Mike Mitchell and I would love to see the Steelers find his replacement in this draft.

Why the hate for Mitchell? His antics have been a bit much, but his play has been just fine. Especially compared to the other safety Sean Davis, who has been absolutely brutal.

I do think they will grab a safety in the first three rounds, though. Have to think safety and ILB are the top two needs.

 

[m9]

The key difference they took their #2 pick and used it on a QB first AND then traded down

Maybe, though that wasn't necessarily the only way to do it. They needed a proper veteran stop-gap QB this season, instead they let McCown go. They traded down for Corey Coleman, while the Titans traded up for Jack Conklin. They let Pryor go for Britt, another swing and a miss. They reached in the 1st round for a "safety", and then compounded the problem because of a weird defensive scheme.

So yeah, trade down and collect picks. But you need to hit on the picks you collect and do well in free agency

 

[Hasbro]

You don't need analytics to tell you that an undersized safety would struggle playing deep and in coverage.

No but they may have been what made the Browns ignore that fact.

The O-line class is strong on the interior.

I know Q Nelson figures to go day 1, who are some of the Day 2 guys you like and sleepers?

 

[Gene Parmesan]

The Browns bet on his athleticism. He may turn it around but playing him out of position doesn't help. As far as the O-line sleepers I like Tyrell Crosby from Oregon. He's more of a mauler than traditional LT so he may kick. inside at G. Jamarco Jones is another overlooked prospect. Nelson, Connor Williams, Orlando Brown and Mike McGlinchey are the surefire 1st rounders.

 

[Hasbro]

The Browns bet on his athleticism. He may turn it around but playing him out of position doesn't help. As far as the O-line sleepers I like Tyrell Crosby from Oregon. He's more of a mauler than traditional LT so he may kick. inside at G. Jamarco Jones is another overlooked prospect. Nelson, Connor Williams, Orlando Brown and Mike McGlinchey are the surefire 1st rounders.

If I had to bet on one guy going to the Broncos with the #5 pick it would be McGlinchey. Sounds like plan A is Kirk Cousins and Plan B is Eli.

Worth noting the Broncos staff is coaching the North at the Senior Bowl (with Mayfield and potentially Allen). Houston is coaching the South, but doesn't pick until the 3rd as it stands.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Stephen Tolliver (LSU), Jessie Bates (Wake Forest) and Kendrick Norton (Miami) all declare.