Here's the Masters field. 88 players. Narrow it down to 10 who have a chance to win. Explain your reasoning.
Cabrera, Couples, Garcia, Immelman, Z. Johnson, Langer, Lyle, Mickelson, Mize, Olazabal, O'Meara, Schwartzel, Scott, Singh, Spieth, Watson, Weir, Willett, Woods, Woosnam, D. Johnson, Kaymer, Rose, McIlroy, Stenson, Day, Dufner, Thomas, Walker, Fowler, S.W. Kim, Ghim, Redman, Ellis, Yuxin, Parziale, Niemann, Casey, Chappell, Henley, Kuchar, Matsuyama, Moore, Pieters, Fleetwood, Harman, Cabrera Bello, Li, F. Molinari, Oosthuizen, Reed, Berger, Bryan, Cantlay, Cook, DeChambeau, Horschel, Kisner, Kizzire, Leishman, Perez, Potter Jr. Poulter, Rahm, Schauffele, Stanley, Steele, Vegas, Woodland, Finau, Hadwin, Hoffman, Simpson, Aphibarnrat, Fisher, Fitzpatrick, Grace, Hatton, Ikeda, Miyazato, Noren, Wiesberger, Frittelli, Kodaira, Reavie, Smith, Sharma
Here's my reasoning:
First timers don't win the Masters.
Bye (16): Ghim, Redman, Ellis, Yuxin, Parziale, Niemann, Li, Bryan, Cook, Kizzire, Schauffele, Finau, Miyazato, Frittelli, Kodaira, Sharma
71 left.
Guys over 50 don't win majors.
Bye (8): Couples, Langer, Lyle, Mize, Olazabal, O'Meara, Singh, Woosnam
63 left.
Form over the last year matters. The last 8 winners had won a golf tournament on one of the 4 or 5 major/major-ish tours around the world in the prior 12 months.
Bye (23): Cabrera, Immelman, Weir, Z. Johnson, Schwartzel, Scott, Willett, Woods, Walker, Fowler, Henley, Kuchar, Moore, Pieters, F. Molinari, Oosthuizen, Reed, Finau, Hadwin, Hoffman, Simpson, Fisher, Reavie
40 left.
Lets recap who we have left.
Garcia, Mickelson, Spieth, Watson, D. Johnson, Rose, McIlroy, Stenson, Day, Dufner, Thomas, S.W. Kim, Casey, Chappell, Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Harman, Cabrera Bello, Berger, Cantlay, DeChambeau, Horschel, Kisner, Leishman, Perez, Potter Jr, Poulter, Rahm, Stanley, Steele, Vegas, Woodland, Aphibarnrat, Fitzpatrick, Grace, Hatton, Ikeda, Noren, Wiesberger, Smith
Almost all Masters winners have previously contended in a major. 9 of the last 10 Masters winners had a top 10 finish in a major prior to their Masters win.
Bye (12): S.W. Kim, Cantlay, DeChambeau, Potter Jr, Rahm, Stanley, Steele, Vegas, Woodland, Aphibarnrat, Ikeda, Wiesberger
28 left.
Major team competition experience is key towards winning the Masters. 28 of the last 30 Masters have been won by someone who had previously played in either the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup.
Bye (7): Fleetwood, Harman, Horschel, Perez, Hatton, Noren, Smith
21 left.
Very few "short" hitters win the Masters. The last 10 times the tournament has been contested, the winner was in the top 100 of driving distance on the major tour they play during that season.
Bye (17): Kisner, Dufner, Poulter, Fitzpatrick
17 left.
Players in their 40's rarely win majors. 2 of the last 22 majors have been won by golfers in their 40's.
Bye (4): Mickelson, Watson, Stenson, Casey
13 left.
Lets recap who is left.
Garcia, Spieth, D. Johnson, Rose, McIlroy, Day, Thomas, Chappell, Matsuyama, Cabrera Bello, Berger, Leishman, Grace
Playing well at the Masters the previous year is important. The last 20 times the tournament has been contested, it was won by someone who made the cut at the Masters the previous year.
Bye (2): D. Johnson, Cabrera Bello
11 left.
A high world ranking usually correlates with winning majors. 20 of the past 21 majors contested have been won by players in the top 39 of the world rankings.
Bye (1): Chappell
10 who can win the Masters: Garcia, Spieth, Rose, Day, Thomas, Matsuyama, Berger, Leishman, Grace
I tend to think you can narrow it down further to this.
A golfer named Justin will win the Masters
Rose or Thomas.