Edit:
To explain my reasoning:
Cut the season up into 10 chunks. 1st chunk (the chunk we're in right now) has 5 wins. Even if the other 9 chunks had the Jays winning 9 of the 17 games in each chunk wins, that is only 86 wins. That's not enough to win the Wild Card, let alone the AL East. And, of course, there are only 162 games, not 170.
Any worse than 5-12 at 17 games in and the season is over folks.