Speculation: 2017 - 2018 Roster Discussion Part 3

[Jakey53]

This has been a great stretch and I am completely stoked for what we could see next year. But, and it's a big but, this is only for 15 games and with a very hot goalie in Raanta and a shut out last night by Kuemper. I hope it continues but it is a small sample size. many teams if not all, have 15 game stretches that look great. I sure hope it continues and I am glad Tocc looks like he has the room.

That's what I thought at this time last year.

 

[Jakey53]

Right, the hot streak is the last dozen or so games. But before that they had gotten up to around a .500 team.
Raanta isn't going to go .940 all the time, so I think it's pretty clear they aren't the 10-3-2 team. But we're also not gonna get .850 goaltending either. Kuemper has been uneven since coming over but he's still well above where Wedge was let alone the first month's tire fire.

It's also worth considering that a lot of the schedule was front loaded with good teams. Coyotes were in the top 5 for strength of schedule for the first 3 months. But the end of the season schedule has a lot of bubble teams and fellow bottom feeders. All the Vancouver games are in the last 2 months for example. I think that contributed to the team looking worse than it was early.

Not only was qualcomp in the top five for the 1st 3 months, weren't they number one in nights away from home and total miles traveled during that time? A ton of adjustment and no time to adjust.

Guys, stop with the excuses. It started in training camp when RT didn't have his team picked until the year started so there was no time for the players to gel, and then the vets decided to go on vacation for the first twenty games or so. It's been a crappy year and everyone is to blame.

 

[Heldig]

They were chatting on HNIC on Saturday and one quote stood out to me - be wary of players / teams that thrive when there is nothing to play for.

Team may be gelling. Hopefully they can figure it out for the whole season next year.

 

[Mosby]

I dunno, we're still playing teams desperate for playoff points.

 

[Grimes]

They were chatting on HNIC on Saturday and one quote stood out to me - be wary of players / teams that thrive when there is nothing to play for.

Team may be gelling. Hopefully they can figure it out for the whole season next year.

This type of quote made more sense for the Yotes last season to me. Maybe that's bias, but I feel the vision is more fully realized this year, and we dont have a Doan pushing players who may normally have checked out.

Again, hoping to have an Av's type jump next season. I think we have a similar team, but replace a true 1C to a 1D, although McKinnon is on another plane this year.

 

[_Del_]

We are 20-20-8 in our last 48 games. I think that's a pretty good sample size. And we're projecting upward. Is the most recent part of the sample just a hot streak? Possibly. But we're closer to that than to the team that started the season, and at least we seem to be moving the right direction.
In 2018 we're 13-8-6. Not bad.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

We are 20-20-8 in our last 48 games. I think that's a pretty good sample size. And we're projecting upward. Is the most recent part of the sample just a hot streak? Possibly. But we're closer to that than to the team that started the season, and at least we seem to be moving the right direction.
In 2018 we're 13-8-6. Not bad.

Oh my! Is there some gold standard, hall of fame quote archive available to put this in?
A fairly positive quote from Del - the worm has most definitely turned my friends!

 

[_Del_]

I've been positive this entire season, beyond some of the team's panic moves after the apocalyptic start. Even during the bad start, I thought we looked better than last year. Faster, more engaged, were in most games, and not being out shot 44-18 every other night. Only the chicken little crowd thinks we took a "giant step backwards" or are/were "playing the worst hockey ever".

 

[Jakey53]

I've been positive this entire season, beyond some of the team's panic moves after the apocalyptic start. Even during the bad start, I thought we looked better than last year. Faster, more engaged, were in most games, and not being out shot 44-18 every other night. Only the chicken little crowd thinks we took a "giant step backwards" or are/were "playing the worst hockey ever".

Chicken little here responding the to the peanut gallery. This team took a "giant step backwards" at the start of the year and there is no disputing that, so don't try sugar coating it. The way the team is playing now is the way the team should have started the year, and I believe we could have been sniffing for a playoff position. We added much needed vet depth and were a much better team on paper than the year before. I don't think AB, Chayka and the entire organization is happy with what has transpired this year. Even after this great run we are still dead last. That just shows how much of a hole we were in.

 

[_Del_]

You said at the beginning of the year you thought we'd be a .500 team. We're there over the last 48 games and significantly better over the last 30 or so.
Even in the front 20 games the team was playing better than their record as was pointed out to you over and over again. No team's PDO can stay that bad over a long stretch. Unnaturally low PDO. Significant improvement in chances for/against. ECHL level goaltending. Et al. Time and again the underlying stats (for losers, right?) were given to you, and you could only bemoan our place in the standings and "giant step backwards", " worst hockey ever".
The team's not a world beater. We've got major holes through the line up, but we're actually exhibiting some of that mythical " try" this season instead of just talking about it.

 

[Jakey53]

You said at the beginning of the year you thought we'd be a .500 team. We're there over the last 48 games and significantly better over the last 30 or so.
Even in the front 20 games the team was playing better than their record as was pointed out to you over and over again. No team's PDO can stay that bad over a long stretch. Unnaturally low PDO. Significant improvement in chances for/against. ECHL level goaltending. Et al. Time and again the underlying stats (for losers, right?) were given to you, and you could only bemoan our place in the standings and "giant step backwards", " worst hockey ever".
The team's not a world beater. We've got major holes through the line up, but we're actually exhibiting some of that mythical " try" this season instead of just talking about it.

That's right, a .500 team. At the end of the day, not a sample size of your liking, we will not be a .500 team. Next year we should be a playoff team and anything less I will consider it a failure. It's about getting into the playoffs and winning the SC, not getting excited over 48 games. Raise your expectations. The Coyotes played some of the worst hockey that I have ever seen since I can remember at the start of the year. It was down right horrible, in all aspects and I'm sure management would agree.

 

[TheLegend]

It’s called growing pains, gents.

It’s no mystery that expectations were placed well above the bar around here. Then Vegas’ epic start it made things look even worse.

I agree with Del here somewhat... despite the bad record at the start there were a number of positive things going that were very visible but the (lack of) W’s and (frequent) L’s got in the way of them.

 

[_Del_]

Delstradamus, 24 October 2017

Not a fancy stat guy, but if you are, we improved SAT% by two points. We're ninth from the bottom instead of dead last in 2016-2017.

Still haven't found anything current on high-quality or high-danger chances.

Looking at save percentages, if we had even mediocre goaltending at Raanta's .911, we would have allowed ten fewer goals on 266 shots in only 8 games. Any of these games seem winnable with over a 1 goal handicap? Of course they did, because we are actually not that bad most of the game. We're in most of these games. We're just dropping them with self-inflicted mistakes. We're not being hemmed in our own zone all game.

Since then we've improved to 48.37% SAT (22nd in league) compared to last year's 45.05% (dead last and over 2% lower than anyone else).

This year: 30.0 SF/G 31.8 SA/G (tied 14th)
Last year: 27.8 SF/G 34.1 SA/G (29th place)


Most of us expected a bad start followed by improvement. Was the start worse than I expected? Yes, mostly due to goaltending as the PDO showed. Have the last 20 or so been better than I expected? Yes, definitely.
That's why a real development year is not "disastrous", no matter where we finish in the standings. Maybe if we had tried a true development year earlier, we could have taken our lumps and been ahead of the game by now. We'll never know.

 

[SniperHF]

I haven't looked at them in like a month and a half, but the Coyotes were REALLY bad at high danger chances. I assume that has improved a bit but probably not a ton, we've gotten a lot of goals from the blue line and via redirect on this run.

/answering a question from October

 

[Heldig]

I was reading an article the other day about the trade deadline where Chayka was commenting on a need to get more impact players. He referenced last summer going out and getting Hjalmarsson, Stepan, Raanta and Demers.

What impact players could the Coyotes possibly acquire? There are a few high end UFAs but unlikely they would sign in the desert. Assuming the 1st pick is untouchable do the Coyotes really have the assets to go out and get an impact player or two?

Thoughts?

 

[_Del_]

I haven't looked at them in like a month and a half, but the Coyotes were REALLY bad at high danger chances. I assume that has improved a bit but probably not a ton, we've gotten a lot of goals from the blue line and via redirect on this run.

/answering a question from October

We're still awfully low on shot generation in general, too. but improving since last year. We're not all that talented. Baby steps.

 

[SniperHF]

What impact players could the Coyotes possibly acquire? There are a few high end UFAs but unlikely they would sign in the desert. Assuming the 1st pick is untouchable do the Coyotes really have the assets to go out and get an impact player or two?

Prices were somewhat low this TDL and maybe that holds through the draft?
Our 2nd is quite good but we traded it . But we do have the Wild 2nd.

Speculating on who would be pretty tough. Hjalmarsson and Stepan weren't really on our (meaning the fans) radar. Though Raanta and Demers were.

The Rangers seem to be willing to deal. They have some attractive pieces but they are ones that could also fit with their current rebuild.

 

[Heldig]

I have the feeling Chayka is going to target Pacioretty.

 

[SniperHF]

I have the feeling Chayka is going to target Pacioretty.

Kinda drowning in LWs though aren't we? Not quite as much as when Rieder was still here but still.

He's a decent rebound candidate and could be a buy-low option. But I think the best trade ammo (or UFA money) we've got has to go toward another center. Preferably one with at least slightly above average footspeed.

 

[rt]

I was reading an article the other day about the trade deadline where Chayka was commenting on a need to get more impact players. He referenced last summer going out and getting Hjalmarsson, Stepan, Raanta and Demers.

What impact players could the Coyotes possibly acquire? There are a few high end UFAs but unlikely they would sign in the desert. Assuming the 1st pick is untouchable do the Coyotes really have the assets to go out and get an impact player or two?

Thoughts?

If we don't win the Dahlin sweepstakes, we need another top RD.

I wonder if Jeff Petry could make some sense for the RD. He's a pretty good two-way guy who's been racking up PP pts this season for MTL. He's 30 with a pretty bad contract, but the dollars back-dive. He's due 5m next season and 4m in each of the remaining years after. Montreal is rebuilding, and his NMC drops to a NTC this summer.

Mike Green is a UFA. Not sure he'd have any interest in us, but he fits the bill as a RD who can contribute to the PP.

If Minnesota gets bounced in the first round again, they might look to retool. Maybe Jared Spurgeon could be had? It's a long-shot, but perhaps. Only if they really want to shake things up a lot. He'd cost a fortune, though.

Pittsburgh is always trying to figure out their cap situation, and they're probably a little down on Justin Schultz after his dip in production this season. If they want to move him, they're running out of time before his NTC kicks in.

We also really need another player who is capable of playing meaningful minutes at center in case Strome doesn't pan out. Strome insurance. Preferably someone who can also move to the wing if need be. I've mentioned Zack Smith about 267 times in the last month or so. I wonder who else might fit the bill?

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

There is not much out there in the RHD world. Green, Bieksa, Carlson (who is going to be expensive), Fayne, Sustr, Prout, Schenn, Polak, Franson, Folin, Wideman...just yuck!

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

definitely have to trade for one.

 

[Heldig]

Agreed, LW is the strongest forward position. I would expect it would cost Perlini to trade for Paccioretty (not saying I would do that - although I think Perlini is over rated on this forum - just realistically Montreal will demand something of value in a current player)

Paccioretty- Stepan - Keller (actually a decent 1st line)
Domi - Strome - Panik (really need an upgrade on RW)
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer (solid, young third line although I would prefer Dvorak get more of an O role)
Martinook - Richardson - Cousins (proven to be a great 4th line or good 3rd line)
spare Archibald

OEL - Demers
Chychrun - Hjalmarsson
Goligoski - Dahlin
Connaughton

 

[rt]

Agreed, LW is the strongest forward position. I would expect it would cost Perlini to trade for Paccioretty (not saying I would do that - although I think Perlini is over rated on this forum - just realistically Montreal will demand something of value in a current player)

Paccioretty- Stepan - Keller (actually a decent 1st line)
Domi - Strome - Panik (really need an upgrade on RW)
Crouse - Dvorak - Fischer (solid, young third line although I would prefer Dvorak get more of an O role)
Martinook - Richardson - Cousins (proven to be a great 4th line or good 3rd line)
spare Archibald

OEL - Demers
Chychrun - Hjalmarsson
Goligoski - Dahlin
Connaughton

Perlini?

 

[Heldig]

There is not much out there in the RHD world. Green, Bieksa, Carlson (who is going to be expensive), Fayne, Sustr, Prout, Schenn, Polak, Franson, Folin, Wideman...just yuck!

Depending on what happens with Trouba, I expect Myers will be traded in the summer.