2017-2018 Blues Discussion Thread Part Three

[carter333167]

there is literally zero basis for saying we would have drafted Tolvanen if we kept our pick.

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Blues stated overtly that they wanted Toli ahead of Kostin....that they were high on Toli. I guess you are arguing that they would have taken Frost or Bowers. It is hardly a stretch to think they would have taken Toli.

 

[KirkOut]

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Blues stated overtly that they wanted Toli ahead of Kostin....that they were high on Toli.

Well ok then. I don’t remember this. Seems like an odd comment for a team to make

 

[carter333167]

Well ok then. I don’t remember this. Seems like an odd comment for a team to make

I'll look for a reference....I could have it wrong but Toli, like Kostin, was a guy who clearly had slipped b/c of some combine interviews (perceived arrogance if memory serves). He was pretty clearly one of the 1-2 best snipers in the draft.

I'm sure Ranksu will weigh in at any moment.

 

[Stealth JD]

We're probably going to need to start focusing on the '18-'19 team, as there's not much worth discussing with this year's version of the squad. The interesting thing will be how many roster spots Armstrong will be able to free himself of, because that will determine how many of the prospects we expect to see. You've got to think Army will make a major move for a top-6 winger, with all of the trade chips he'll have at his disposal...regardless of whether he's successful in wooing Tavares. In the perfect storm the Blues could come away with something like:

Schwartz-Schenn-Stone* ($5.3 - $5.1 - $6.7 = $17.1M)
Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko ($1.5M - $11M - $7.5M = $20M)
Steen-Thomas-Kyrou-Jaskin ($5.7M - $1M - $1M - $1M = $8.7M)
Foley-Sanford-Barbashev-Soshnikov ($4M)

Eddy-Petro ($4.2M - $6.5M = $10.7M)
Bo-Parayko ($5.4M - $5.5M = $10.9M)
Dunn-Schmaltz-Bortuzzo ( $3.2M)

Total Forwards = $49.8M Total Defense = $24.8M.
Goalies: ~ $6M, with Allen's future TBD. Total roster = $80.6M

Totally doable.

*Assumes we trade some combination of 9th overall, 31st overall, Thompson+ for Stone... and can move Gunnarsson, Berglund, Sobotka along with whatever assets it takes to clear the roster space.

 

[Blueston]

As much as I like Schenn, Tolivanen (who we would have drafted with the 2017 pick) and the 2018 11th OA pick is probably worth more, perhaps quite a bit more, than Schenn.

Toli alone is arguably a better prospect than either Thomas or Kyrou (probably will join the Preds in a few weeks)...looks to be cream of the crop. Add the 2018 11th OA and it really doesn't seem like a close call....no matter how much we like Schenn's leadership.

Ask yourself this: would you trade Thomas and the 11th OA for Schenn? Again, Toli looks even better than Thomas or Kyrou right now. ("Tolvanen scored 19 goals and recorded 36 points in 49 games for Jokerit this season, the best numbers for a player 19 and younger in KHL history, per Elite Prospects." )

As for your question, I would definitely reverse the trade if I could at this moment....and I like Schenn very much...it's just that I value Toli and the 11th OA pick more considering where we are as a team.

I ain't buying that Tolvanen is next Laine. I think his numbers are inflated by watered down KHL. Even so, nearly every team passed on him. It's a fool's game to say if we hadn't traded pick we would have drafted player who ended up being the best of all players who were available at that point.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Blues stated overtly that they wanted Toli ahead of Kostin....that they were high on Toli. I guess you are arguing that they would have taken Frost or Bowers. It is hardly a stretch to think they would have taken Toli.

It was never stated, it was only hinted at. People like Lou Korac tweeted that the Blues were interested in Tolvanen and others would state that they seemed more inclined to take Tolvanen had they had the choice. There is no overt statement stating how the Blues would have rather taken Tolvanen, only people putting two-and-two together.

It there was such a statement, then that would look terrible for the Blues. That's just openly belittling Kostin for no reason. It doesn't matter how much the Blues liked Tolvanen because overtly stating that Kostin was the 2nd choice is just mean-spirited.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

As for re-doing the Schenn trade, the Blues would be in a much worse place had that trade not gone through.

The Blues suck right now, but at the end of the day, the Blues still have Schenn as a top-6 center going into next season along with Kostin as a prospect. Had the trade not gone through, the Blues would have Tolvanen along with Lehtera as the only "top-6 center" (quotation marks should be noted) signed through next season. We might not have traded Stastny this season, but he would still be a UFA going into next year. The Blues might have a top-10 pick, but there is no way a draft pick that high in a lackluster draft for centermen would justify having no top-6 center going into the 2018-2019 season. That would put the Blues in the running for Hughes if left untreated.

So in summation, I would much rather not have a 2018 pick, have a lesser winger prospect, and Schenn than have a center depth of: Lehtera, ???????, Berglund, going into next season. I don't think Tolvanen and who ever the Blues would draft would make up for that.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Schenn has been right around the best case scenario in the range of possibilities. The draft pick going to Philly looks like it will be right around the worst case scenario in the range of possibilities.

 

[The Note]

We're probably going to need to start focusing on the '18-'19 team, as there's not much worth discussing with this year's version of the squad. The interesting thing will be how many roster spots Armstrong will be able to free himself of, because that will determine how many of the prospects we expect to see. You've got to think Army will make a major move for a top-6 winger, with all of the trade chips he'll have at his disposal...regardless of whether he's successful in wooing Tavares. In the perfect storm the Blues could come away with something like:

Schwartz-Schenn-Stone* ($5.3 - $5.1 - $6.7 = $17.1M)
Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko ($1.5M - $11M - $7.5M = $20M)
Steen-Thomas-Kyrou-Jaskin ($5.7M - $1M - $1M - $1M = $8.7M)
Foley-Sanford-Barbashev-Soshnikov ($4M)

Eddy-Petro ($4.2M - $6.5M = $10.7M)
Bo-Parayko ($5.4M - $5.5M = $10.9M)
Dunn-Schmaltz-Bortuzzo ( $3.2M)

Total Forwards = $49.8M Total Defense = $24.8M.
Goalies: ~ $6M, with Allen's future TBD. Total roster = $80.6M

Totally doable.

*Assumes we trade some combination of 9th overall, 31st overall, Thompson+ for Stone... and can move Gunnarsson, Berglund, Sobotka along with whatever assets it takes to clear the roster space.

Sign me up.

 

[simon IC]

Does anybody have any information on the quality of the 2019 draft? The preliminary research I have done, (which isn't much ), points to it being a better draft than this years. Perhaps aiming for a top 10 this year isn't the best strategy, as we would lose our 2019 1st. Maybe we should shift our focus to more of a long term view?

 

[ezcreepin]

Top10 pick+Jets pick+Kostin/Thompson would be one hell of a return. That's more than Hoffman for sure.

You better get a top 10 center with that package.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Blues stated overtly that they wanted Toli ahead of Kostin....that they were high on Toli. I guess you are arguing that they would have taken Frost or Bowers. It is hardly a stretch to think they would have taken Toli.

I believe it was Strickland commenting on how much the Blues liked Toli leading up to the pick we traded Philly.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Does anybody have any information on the quality of the 2019 draft? The preliminary research I have done, (which isn't much ), points to it being a better draft than this years. Perhaps aiming for a top 10 this year isn't the best strategy, as we would lose our 2019 1st. Maybe we should shift our focus to more of a long term view?

I’ve heard they’re about equal in terms of overall value and depth but with the 2018 draft being better for d-men and 2019 being better for forwards.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Uh, I'm pretty sure the Blues stated overtly that they wanted Toli ahead of Kostin....that they were high on Toli. I guess you are arguing that they would have taken Frost or Bowers. It is hardly a stretch to think they would have taken Toli.

I would like for someone to post this overt statement from the Blues as I’ve never seen it. I’ve seen Blues fans refer to it numerous times but I don’t believe it actually exists.

The only thing I ever saw in the matter was JR (or maybe it was Lou but pretty sure it was JR) was that the Blues wanted one of Kostin or Tolvanen at 31 and knew at least one of them would be there.

After the Blues selected Kostin after the Preds picked Tolvanen one pick earlier, I saw fans claim the Blues wanted Tolvanen over Kostin but I saw absolutely nothing they were basing it on. It seemed like total conjecture to me. Maybe there was something they were basing it on that I missed but I’ve never seen it. All I’ve seen is fans say something and then other fans repeat it. A nice game of telephone.

Personally, I preferred Tolvanen but admittedly, I had seen Tolvanen play live a handful of times (he played in the USHL which I see a lot of) and I had never seen Kostin play since he pretty much missed most of his draft year...but how the Blues had them ranked, I have no idea.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Schenn has been right around the best case scenario in the range of possibilities. The draft pick going to Philly looks like it will be right around the worst case scenario in the range of possibilities.

Perfect definition of a win-win trade. Both teams accomplished what they wanted to happen.

 

[Thallis]

Perfect definition of a win-win trade. Both teams accomplished what they wanted to happen.

One team gave up more value than they expected, though, while the other team got more. The difference in value between picks 11 and 24 are pretty big.

 

[Dbrownss]

I doubt Philly was banking in St. Louis having a collapse. No one predicted the pick would be 10-20. Some may have wished or hoped, but not predicted.


To those that have been heavily researching the draft. If the Blues lose their 1st....is it detrimental to the franchise? Obviously there always the outlier that is found by the pros. As I look through mock drafts, I dont say... f***, I cant beleive we're going to lose this pick. Losing a 10-20 pick is always going to sting, but is it crippling, when only considering the draft?

 

[PiggySmalls]

Butler has been recalled. Bortuzzo didn’t practice yesterday.

 

[carter333167]

I doubt Philly was banking in St. Louis having a collapse. No one predicted the pick would be 10-20. Some may have wished or hoped, but not predicted.


To those that have been heavily researching the draft. If the Blues lose their 1st....is it detrimental to the franchise? Obviously there always the outlier that is found by the pros. As I look through mock drafts, I dont say... ****, I cant beleive we're going to lose this pick. Losing a 10-20 pick is always going to sting, but is it crippling, when only considering the draft?

It's a decent draft and Bill Armstrong hasn't had anything like an 11OA in a long time. My guess: time will tell that it will sting, perhaps quite a bit.

 

[Dbrownss]

It's a decent draft and Bill Armstrong hasn't had anything like an 11OA in a long time. My guess: time will tell that it will sting, perhaps quite a bit.

That's kind of my thinking given how well BE drafts...It's always going to hurt. There's always mid round guys that go all stud mode.

I'm assuming the Armstrong's got together and decided 10+ was acceptable if lost.

 

[carter333167]

That's kind of my thinking given how well BE drafts...It's always going to hurt. There's always mid round guys that go all stud mode.

I'm assuming the Armstrong's got together and decided 10+ was acceptable if lost.

Well, the premise of the deal for the Blues was that gaining Schenn and losing Lehtera would make the Blues MORE competitive immediately and give our prospects time to bring up the rear. That premise seems to be failing b/c of the general collapse of the rest of the roster and the coaching and the team. The Blues, who gave up very good prospects for the immediate impact veteran and trading a boat anchor are going to miss the PO's. The Flyers got the prospects, got the boat anchor and are going to make the playoffs. IF DA had known that the entire team was going to go to ____ in a hand basket, he probably doesn't make that trade. Schenn will need to maintain his excellent play and extend with the Blues to make this deal even remotely palatable.

Notwithstanding, it's hard to deny that most of us would be licking our chops at the idea of Bill Armstrong having an 11OA pick. If there is one guy who has been exemplary with the Blues, it seems to be BA. It's a kick in the groin to have the worst regular season in years and then not even have your first round pick.

One of our posters immediately objected to the Schenn deal in the draft thread...saying that trading our firsts away year after year was killing the team. I won't name him here but the Philly deal wasn't roundly applauded by everyone when it was executed and was only ameliorated by the Reaves deal.

 

[Blueston]

That's kind of my thinking given how well BE drafts...It's always going to hurt. There's always mid round guys that go all stud mode.

I'm assuming the Armstrong's got together and decided 10+ was acceptable if lost.

Sense seems to be in this draft that there is drop off after top 8 or so and not huge difference between picking 11 and 25.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Sense seems to be in this draft that there is drop off after top 8 or so and not huge difference between picking 11 and 25.

Not sure where you got that but allow me to disagree. Every year at the draft (2016 perfect example) teams pay to move up.

 

[stl76]

Not sure where you got that but allow me to disagree. Every year at the draft (2016 perfect example) teams pay to move up.

What does a team paying to move up in 2016 have to do with the strength of the draft in 2018?

Don't get me wrong, there will undoubtedly be a very good player available wherever the Blues 2018 1st end up...just don't see how what you're saying has anything to do with the post you're quoting.

 

[MSSLYNX]

What does a team paying to move up in 2016 have to do with the strength of the draft in 2018?

Don't get me wrong, there will undoubtedly be a very good player available wherever the Blues 2018 1st end up...just don't see how what you're saying has anything to do with the post you're quoting.

Was merely questioning 11 is same as 25 this year and the dropoff at 8 (bolded).