2017-2018 Blues Discussion Thread Part Three

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

What’s more likely, getting 11th and winning the lottery, or maintaining 10th straight-up post-lottery?

Both have to be incredibly slim despite us sinking below NYI, CAR, FLA, and CBJ.

 

[Alklha]

What’s more likely, getting 11th and winning the lottery, or maintaining 10th straight-up post-lottery?

Both have to be incredibly slim despite us sinking below NYI, CAR, FLA, and CBJ.

The chance of moving up from 11th to a top-3 pick is ~10%.

The chance of 10th being pushed 11th or lower is ~30%.

 

[stl76]

The chance of moving up from 11th to a top-3 pick is ~10%.

The chance of 10th being pushed 11th or lower is ~30%.

Yeah, but those odds are for normal teams...Vincenzo is asking the odds for the BLUES.

 

[Brian39]

They don't know yet, so he is listed as day-to-day. He hasn't been placed on IR yet, but that is pretty meaningless at this stage of the season.

We're almost certainly heading towards the 11th pick. We current are sitting in position for the 13th overall.

You have to remember that New Jersey and Columbus are currently in the playoff spots, so they aren't a factor unless they are passed.

Florida are 2 points back and have 2 games in hand, plus they are on a great run. Carolina have played a game more than us and are 4 points back, but they are 5 points out of 7th in the East. They'll be making a playoff push and half their remaining games are against the 10 worst teams in the standings. If those 2 catch us, we're back to 11th.

When it comes to potentially getting 10th, the Islanders are probably the most likely to catch us. If they win a few games then they might get back into playoff contention in the East, and 9 of their remaining games are at home.

Still... 11th is looks pretty certain.

I don't think 11th is as certain as you think. NJ and Columbus aren't a factor while they are in a playoff spot, but there is a good chance that they become a factor if Florida, Carolina or the Isles pass us. If Florida/Carolina/NYI catch us, there is a pretty good chance they also catch NJ/Columbus who we would then be "competing" with for draft position. So it's not as simple as just Florida catching us to get to 12th. NJ/Columbus also have jump/maintain position ahead of us.

 

[Alklha]

I don't think 11th is as certain as you think. NJ and Columbus aren't a factor while they are in a playoff spot, but there is a good chance that they become a factor if Florida, Carolina or the Isles pass us. If Florida/Carolina/NYI catch us, there is a pretty good chance they also catch NJ/Columbus who we would then be "competing" with for draft position. So it's not as simple as just Florida catching us to get to 12th. NJ/Columbus also have jump/maintain position ahead of us.

Sure, but the fact remains that two of the teams aren't going to be in the discussion after 82 games because they will be going to the playoffs.

You are extremely optimistic if you think that we're going to get more points than Carolina, Columbus or Florida between now and the end of the season. Carolina have a relatively easy schedule, Columbus look much better after their deadline acquisitions and Florida are playing the best hockey in the League for the past 6 weeks. These teams are trending up or maintaining their season pace. We're trending down and have a talent issue.

New Jersey are the only ones who might be able to keep up with our inertia, because their run in looks horrendous.

We aren't certain to get 11th, but it looks the most likely scenario at the moment.

 

[Blueston]

Great article on The Athletic by Evan Sporer examining Blues options for RW on 1st line. Really illustrates a couple things: ineffectiveness of Tage and perils of throwing kids out there over sometimes less talented vets (not saying Tage won't improve, just assessment on where he is now) and lots of how Jaskin makes positive impact via smart play in multiple zones (even though he himself seldom scores).

Anyway, you should read the article: The Blues' Line: Assessing right wing options for Schwartz...

 

[Majorityof1]

Great article on The Athletic by Evan Sporer examining Blues options for RW on 1st line. Really illustrates a couple things: ineffectiveness of Tage and perils of throwing kids out there over sometimes less talented vets (not saying Tage won't improve, just assessment on where he is now) and lots of how Jaskin makes positive impact via smart play in multiple zones (even though he himself seldom scores).

Anyway, you should read the article: The Blues' Line: Assessing right wing options for Schwartz...

I think someone on this board, not sure who but someone, has been arguing this very thing most the year.

 

[ezcreepin]

What’s more likely, getting 11th and winning the lottery, or maintaining 10th straight-up post-lottery?

Both have to be incredibly slim despite us sinking below NYI, CAR, FLA, and CBJ.

I don't think it's out of this world to fall below Carolina, Florida, and Columbus. The hard part is falling below the Islanders. They haven't played too well recently.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Let’s focus on getting into the top 10 this year, but for next year, what on earth needs to happen to have a functional PP? Of all the things that reflect poorly on the coaching this year, that’s at the top of the list.

 

[BangarangxRufio]

BOYS, A coworker of mine has seen the future and I have an email with his thoughts.
HERE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE THIS OFFSEASON:

Blues continue to fall. Their first rd pick is in the top 10. They’re supposed to send that pick to PHI in the Schenn deal. But if the pick is in the top 10, the Blues have the right to keep it and send their 1st rd pick in 2019 to PHI.
In that scenario, the Blues would have two 1st rd picks in this draft(their top 10, and the one they got form WPG for 26). The team also still has all of the big four, Thompson, Thomas, Kyrou, and Kostin. Plus Husso, Schmaltz, Walman, and now Foley. That’s pretty damn deep farm system. Not really a need for two firsts in this year’s draft. Keep in mind, that kind of depth in the system will make easier to not have the first in next year’s draft.
Now here’s the kicker, at the end of the season, Stillman announces Doug Armstrong is no longer the GM. He will remain with the team as the President of Hockey Operations but no longer serve as the GM. Similar to Holmgren in PHI from a couple years back.
And your new general manager is Martin Brodeur.
Brodeur then makes a splash at the draft. Packages one of the firsts, a prospect, and a contract(71, 21, 20, 34, or 19) for a goalie and /or player (big name/star power players) . Then goes out makes his best pitch for Tavares and lands him.



i am 100% okay with all of it lol

 

[The Note in MI]

Would rather use the top ten pick. Use the WPG first for trade bait with one of Kostin and Thompson for a top line winger. And then convince Tavares to come to us.

 

[Mike Liut]

Haven’t followed the actual draft lottery before. So if the Blues end up with the #11th pick prior to the lottery selection, what are their odds to coming in at 10? Slim?

 

[BangarangxRufio]

Haven’t followed the actual draft lottery before. So if the Blues end up with the #11th pick prior to the lottery selection, what are their odds to coming in at 10? Slim?

We could end up with the 10th overall pick and we would end up being bounced to 13th, because gonna baby

idk if they have released an official % for each spot but here is a site

NHL Lottery Simulator - NHL Draft Odds

 

[RORbacon]

Haven’t followed the actual draft lottery before. So if the Blues end up with the #11th pick prior to the lottery selection, what are their odds to coming in at 10? Slim?

IIRC, ~10.5% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Only picks 1-3 are lottery. If the blues are at #11 and don’t get lucky (picks 1-3), it goes to Philly.

 

[Mike Liut]

So they don’t keep picking numbers all the way through #15? Only the first 3 numbers, then 4-15 stay the same?

 

[Xerloris]

Top10 pick+Jets pick+Kostin/Thompson would be one hell of a return. That's more than Hoffman for sure.

 

[RORbacon]

So they don’t keep picking numbers all the way through #15? Only the first 3 numbers, then 4-15 stay the same?

Yes. There are 3 drawings for: 1st, 2nd, and third overall picks. After that, the 12 teams not selected in the lottery will be assigned picks 4 through 15 (inverse order of regular season points).

All of this happens off camera, so all we actually see as fans is the reveal.

 

[Note Worthy]

So they don’t keep picking numbers all the way through #15? Only the first 3 numbers, then 4-15 stay the same?

Correct. 1-3 are lottery for teams that didn't make the playoffs. After those 1-3 are selected the rest fill in based on their record.

 

[Mike Liut]

That’s dumb. They should keep picking all the way to 15. Give all the lotto teams a chance to move up

 

[Note Worthy]

Yeah it will be pretty a much a miracle to make the playoffs or keep our pick at the draft. We're in a bad spot.

 

[Blueston]

Even if we have 11th pick, wouldn't you still make Schenn trade all over again? He is core player. Even if it is late 1st, 11th, and Lehtera that is still fine trade.

 

[Mike Liut]

Even if we have 11th pick, wouldn't you still make Schenn trade all over again? He is core player. Even if it is late 1st, 11th, and Lehtera that is still fine trade.

I’ll feel much better about it if Schenn is extended at some point

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

Even if we have 11th pick, wouldn't you still make Schenn trade all over again? He is core player. Even if it is late 1st, 11th, and Lehtera that is still fine trade.

Depends on how Scheen performs, is he a 1B moving forward or is he a good 2C? The blues haven't had a pick that high since the EJ trade. A pick I think also an 11th overall pick that went to Colorado.

Had DA not made the trade; had he had faith Fabri was our future center and protected Perron instead of Reaves....would the blues have gotten off to such a hot start to the season? If not we would be picking above 10 this year possibly but you still have to dump the lethra contract somewhere.

Bottom line: at the time of trade a late first for Scheen ands late first for lethra dump was what the trade looked like and was a win for blues. If 11th overall turns out to be true....if Scheen is worth the 11th overall then we overpaid to dump lethra. And if Scheen doesn't prove to be a Long term core player is that worth losing six years of control over a near top 10 center prospect.....hard sell for me either way.

 

[carter333167]

Even if we have 11th pick, wouldn't you still make Schenn trade all over again? He is core player. Even if it is late 1st, 11th, and Lehtera that is still fine trade.

As much as I like Schenn, Tolivanen (who we would have drafted with the 2017 pick) and the 2018 11th OA pick is probably worth more, perhaps quite a bit more, than Schenn.

Toli alone is arguably a better prospect than either Thomas or Kyrou (probably will join the Preds in a few weeks)...looks to be cream of the crop. Add the 2018 11th OA and it really doesn't seem like a close call....no matter how much we like Schenn's leadership.

Ask yourself this: would you trade Thomas and the 11th OA for Schenn? Again, Toli looks even better than Thomas or Kyrou right now. ("Tolvanen scored 19 goals and recorded 36 points in 49 games for Jokerit this season, the best numbers for a player 19 and younger in KHL history, per Elite Prospects." )

As for your question, I would definitely reverse the trade if I could at this moment....and I like Schenn very much...it's just that I value Toli and the 11th OA pick more considering where we are as a team.

 

[KirkOut]

there is literally zero basis for saying we would have drafted Tolvanen if we kept our pick.